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Patriots Fumble Rates since 2007 rule change


somnus00

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The problem is Brady probably won't be suspended for cheating during actual games but Dareus will be suspended for minor off the field indiscretions.

You know the NFL IS stupid enough to do something like this.
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As much as I'd love to credit this as the Pats cheating, I really can't (even though I hate them with a burning passion). I saw a breakdown of this article and the numbers are a bit skewed. From what I understand they were using the number of fumbles lost and they didn't include fumbles recovered. So, there is a bit of discrepancy as to whether its a combination of lower fumbles and better coaching on recovering fumbles.

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It's irrelevant. Brady and the Pats were dominating the NFL well before 2007.

Pre 2007 is when they were taping defensive signals and scrambling opposing teams in game audio.

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As much as I hate the pats*, this isnt exactly "proof." This is a demonstration that somewhere down the line, they got really good at protecting the football. I'm sure they've been deflating balls occasionally for some time now, but you cant just point to astronomically good stats as proof they must be cheating the entire time. Just sayin. On the other hand, those text messages are pretty damning.

Not proof in itself but just adds another log to the Pats* pyre.

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  • 3 months later...

My apologies if these articles have been posted before.

 

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007

 

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible

 

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-wells-report-may-have-uncovered-the-tip-of-the-iceberg

 

As the author points out statistics don't say why, they only can allude to something occurring, when it started occurring, and the likelihood of it occurring at random. The last 3 parts of that sentence all have very interesting information regarding the Patriots since the 2007 rule change. A couple things as they relate to me. I handicapped baseball and ran a service for about 4 years. I was not a sure thing as no such thing exists, I did have enough market influence to move a total very quickly. Take what I'm saying at face value or not, to prove what I'm saying I would have to provide my full name which is not something I'm doing on this site. I'm only giving you background because I feel pretty well positioned to discuss the merits of these articles.

 

In the process of running my service I made acquaintances with some baseball minds that are very active in the Saber world. I learned a lot to say the least. For example in Colorado the ball just doesn't travel further, it also breaks differently depending on what type of pitch you throw because of the impact of air density on a baseball. In fact baseballs break differently in many ball parks across the United States. I actually stay in contact with a gentleman that is working on an air density controlled batting cage for the Colorado Rockies players to use. Reason is the Rockies can't travel home to away and endure the additional movement on pitches. The mental effects of a ball not traveling are hard enough, try dealing with that on top of a ball that was barely moving at home and now is dancing all over the plate away. Even worse, the west coast air density has the most pitch break out of any geographical location in the Majors and the Rockies deal with a lot of H to A situations to the West Coast. The Rockies already have known what I'm discussing for some time. They're are at a competitive disadvantage where they play and are doing everything they can to neutralize this. Sabermetrics has dozens of revelations scattered in it's history that provided teams a competitive advantage even if it was just for a long enough time until everybody else copied them. Those revelations all fell within league rules and just about every major baseball pundit applauded these discoveries as genius.

 

Again, we can't draw a direct line to anything based on statistics, but I have my thoughts anyway. When I read these articles my feelings are Bill Belichick and Tom Brady were both aware of the impact air pressure has on a football and probably have been for decades. When I hear BB discuss his complete lack of any understanding on the topic it's comical. As a high school football player that did kickoffs (thankfully I did more) I could kick a soft deflated ball incredibly further than a hard one. The difference you felt on it's impact against your foot was instant. I even asked my coach at the time if we could use a special kickoff ball to which he replied sure and he knew exactly why. So even my high school coach knew about air pressure in footballs. Once the rule change went into effect in 2007 I think Brady and Belicheck did everything possible to get the air pressure on the balls as low as possible. I'm not willing to say they deflated to the extent to intentionally break the rules, it did in fact probably reach that level at times, knowingly or not. I'm saying they were aware the lower the PSI the more of an advantage they had and they did everything possible to capitalize on this. To me it's no different than the Rockies trying to even the playing field with an Air Density chamber or the Sabermetric discoveries that propelled the Athletics into the spotlight. I imagine to BB and TB it felt no different either. It becomes different because I think they were the only ones willing to push the air levels as low as they did. Unlike baseball in which revelations got copied nearly instantaneously, aware or not, I don't think any team was willing to try and copy what the Patriots were doing out of fear they would violate league rules. As far as competitive advantage, read the articles. I would rather be a coach going up against 52 players juiced like Frankenstein than have to always be at a disadvantage with fumbles.

Edited by KzooMike
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