Rodak: Why the Bills should consider trading EJ Manuel

[Doc]

What? Thad went 2-3 as a starter, and threw more TD's than INT's. By your criteria, he was an excellent back-up. One season later, he was cut for sucking so bad.

Actually he went 2-4 as a starter, but you are right that he threw 5 TDs compared to 4 INTs. But that was after 4 years in the NFL.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The notion is that we trade him NOW before his trade value drops, al a Tebow.

 

But, there's a lot missing from the comparison, including the value of a fourth round pick (assuming we could even get that-- we might) for this team, vs a fourth round pick for the Broncos back in 2013, with Manning under center vs the loss of a mediocre backup.

I thinking this was sort of his centerpiece:

 

"The sweet spot for trading Manuel could be early August. At that point, Bills coaches would have two months of spring camps and about two weeks of training camp to have evaluated him. If they don't like what they see, they could try to strike a deal before the rest of the NFL has a chance to see Manuel on film in preseason games."

[FireChan]

Actually he went 2-4 as a starter, but you are right that he threw 5 TDs compared to 4 INTs. But that was after 4 years in the NFL.

No, he didn't. He only started 5 games. EJ started 10, and Tuel had 1.

Edited April 20, 2015 by FireChan

[Doc]

No, he didn't. He only started 5 games. EJ started 10, and Tuel had 1.

He started a game with the Browns in 2012.

[Rico]

Agreed. I thought it was a reasonably solid and informative piece, but I think the market for Manuel is lower than he projects.

Indeed. Based on the game tapes, I think the Bills would be extremely lucky to get a 6th-rounder from another team for him right now ala Blaine Gabbert.

[Rico]

I thinking this was sort of his centerpiece:

 

"The sweet spot for trading Manuel could be early August. At that point, Bills coaches would have two months of spring camps and about two weeks of training camp to have evaluated him. If they don't like what they see, they could try to strike a deal before the rest of the NFL has a chance to see Manuel on film in preseason games."

In this case, I disagree with him there. If EJ sh#%s the bed in training camp again, no team is trading for him. It would be seen as an obvious fire sale, & anyone with any interest would just wait for him to be cut. At that point, I think it'd be best to play him in the pre-season & at least let him go down swinging.I don't know if I would play him until the 1st road game though, because I'd hate to see a repeat of the 1st home game from last year (Tampa Bay?), the crowd was truly ugly & out for blood, Hopefully, Roman can work some magic with him & it won't come down to this.

[1billsfan]

Indeed. Based on the game tapes, I think the Bills would be extremely lucky to get a 6th-rounder from another team for him right now ala Blaine Gabbert.

 

Perception vs Reality:

The first 13 game starts stats of two recently drafted QBs in the NFL –

QB 1: 11 TDs, 58% comps, 2.4 TD%, 17 ints, 69 QB rating

QB 2: 16 TDs, 58% comp, 3.6 TD%, 10 ints, 78 QB rating

One is considered a QB with a promising NFL future while the other QB is considered garbage to the point a Patriot fan disguised as ESPN’s Bills beat reporter suggests he should be traded for peanuts and Bills fans agree with him. The first QB is Blake Bortles, I think everyone can guess who the other QB is.

I'm really wondering where all of this weird hater stuff is coming from because his stats simply do not reflect the reason for this overboard frustration. I've said it before and I'll say it again, 99% of this board would have signed on for 19 TDs in the "raw" Manuel's first 14 starts. Is it the "eye test" thing? What is it that bothers you guys so much about Manuel?

I'm not sold on Manuel yet, but at least I'm excited to see what a coach not named Doug Marrone and with a real NFL resume can do to improve his game. Now the Bills have added McCoy, Clay, Harvin. I think there's a decent chance that Watkins was right and we will see a different EJ Manuel this year.

[Rico]

 

 

Perception vs Reality:

The first 13 game starts stats of two recently drafted QBs in the NFL –

QB 1: 11 TDs, 58% comps, 2.4 TD%, 17 ints, 69 QB rating

QB 2: 16 TDs, 58% comp, 3.6 TD%, 10 ints, 78 QB rating

One is considered a QB with a promising NFL future while the other QB is considered garbage to the point a Patriot fan disguised as ESPN’s Bills beat reporter suggests he should be traded for peanuts and Bills fans agree with him. The first QB is Blake Bortles, I think everyone can guess who the other QB is.

I'm really wondering where all of this weird hater stuff is coming from because his stats simply do not reflect the reason for this overboard frustration. I've said it before and I'll say it again, 99% of this board would have signed on for 19 TDs in the "raw" Manuel's first 14 starts. Is it the "eye test" thing? What is it that bothers you guys so much about Manuel?

I'm not sold on Manuel yet, but at least I'm excited to see what a coach not named Doug Marrone and with a real NFL resume can do to improve his game. Now the Bills have added McCoy, Clay, Harvin. I think there's a decent chance that Watkins was right and we will see a different EJ Manuel this year.

 

1. Stats are for losers.

2. I don't hate him, but I have watched every snap he has taken as a Bill, and I am not at all impressed. I don't think other GMs are impressed, and I don't think Pegs is too impressed either. I am willing to see if Roman can salvage him, but significant improvement has to be shown on the field..

Edited April 20, 2015 by Rico

[Rocky Landing]

 

 

Perception vs Reality:

The first 13 game starts stats of two recently drafted QBs in the NFL –

QB 1: 11 TDs, 58% comps, 2.4 TD%, 17 ints, 69 QB rating

QB 2: 16 TDs, 58% comp, 3.6 TD%, 10 ints, 78 QB rating

One is considered a QB with a promising NFL future while the other QB is considered garbage to the point a Patriot fan disguised as ESPN’s Bills beat reporter suggests he should be traded for peanuts and Bills fans agree with him. The first QB is Blake Bortles, I think everyone can guess who the other QB is.

I'm really wondering where all of this weird hater stuff is coming from because his stats simply do not reflect the reason for this overboard frustration. I've said it before and I'll say it again, 99% of this board would have signed on for 19 TDs in the "raw" Manuel's first 14 starts. Is it the "eye test" thing? What is it that bothers you guys so much about Manuel?

I'm not sold on Manuel yet, but at least I'm excited to see what a coach not named Doug Marrone and with a real NFL resume can do to improve his game. Now the Bills have added McCoy, Clay, Harvin. I think there's a decent chance that Watkins was right and we will see a different EJ Manuel this year.

 

I am by no means an EJ hater, and I am very much against trading him. But, I think your stats are misleading.

 

Bortles played all thirteen of those games in his rookie year-- for the dreadful Jags. He was sacked 55 times last year! You have to admit that the Bills were a better team than the Jags! And, while those particular numbers were better for EJ (a spurious comparison) you left out other numbers. For example, Bortles far out-rushed EJ, and did it without any knee injuries.

[FireChan]

EJ played two years. Bortles played one. Bad comparison.

[1billsfan]

1. Stats are for losers.

2. I don't hate him, but I have watched every snap he has taken as a Bill, and I am not at all impressed. I don't think other GMs are impressed, and I don't think Pegs is too impressed either. I am willing to see if Roman can salvage him, but significant improvement has to be shown on the field..

 

No one's asking you guys to be impressed, just asking for you to be real. EJ Manuel was a raw QB coming out of college who would take two to three years to develop into a reliable starting QB who can help get the Bills into the playoffs. You can deny it, but I think that if you were told he'd have 19 TDs in his first 14 games then you'd have been fine with that. EJ performed like a raw QB who shows some ability that could turn into something.

 

I also think significant improvement is needed for Manuel to stay beyond this year for the sheer fact that a new coaching staff is here. However, I think you guys have gone way overboard on how bad you think he was. That's why the need to bring out cold hard stats. You just can't get away with describing how horrible you thought he was and the only thing you have is the "eye test" because the stats don't say that he was as bad as you said.

 

IMO, Manuel would fetch a 4th round pick. There are a few teams who have older QBs who would love to have a QB like Manuel with the size, athleticism, work ethic and passing ability to work with that would do that deal in a heartbeat. I'm thinking teams like the Saints, Giants and Steelers. As for teams which have no QB, even if a GM liked him he could not be seen as credible sending a 3rd rd pick for Manuel because he's so unproven and has not looked impressive early in his career.

 

There are a lot of guys who will be eating crow this year if Manuel puts up seriously good numbers. I couldn't imagine how I'd feel if he does that and I had said on this board that I'd have been ok with trading away the franchise QB a few months before he established himself because the raw QB didn't turn the corner soon enough.

 

I am by no means an EJ hater, and I am very much against trading him. But, I think your stats are misleading.

 

Bortles played all thirteen of those games in his rookie year-- for the dreadful Jags. He was sacked 55 times last year! You have to admit that the Bills were a better team than the Jags! And, while those particular numbers were better for EJ (a spurious comparison) you left out other numbers. For example, Bortles far out-rushed EJ, and did it without any knee injuries.

 

The Bills had one of the worst rushing offenses last year and their pass protection wasn't great either. Manuel was no where near ready to take over an offense like that last year.

 

We shall see what Manuel does with McCoy and a real rushing game now. That could be a big key in turning EJ's career around.

Edited April 20, 2015 by 1billsfan

[ALF]

1. Stats are for losers.

2. I don't hate him, but I have watched every snap he has taken as a Bill, and I am not at all impressed. I don't think other GMs are impressed, and I don't think Pegs is too impressed either. I am willing to see if Roman can salvage him, but significant improvement has to be shown on the field..

 

I have not watched every snap , so I value your opinion.

 

If EJ had a solid OL like Dallas to give him time to throw and have a good running game, could he be a good QB ?

 

Marrone, the OL and Kolb getting hurt so EJ had to play before he was ready was the perfect storm for failure JMO

Edited April 20, 2015 by ALF

[BuffaloHokie13]

The Bills had one of the worst rushing offenses last year and their pass protection wasn't great either. Manuel was no where near ready to take over an offense like that last year.

 

We shall see what Manuel does with McCoy and a real rushing game now. That could be a big key in turning EJ's career around.

The rushing offense wasn't that bad until our top 2 backs got hurt, and our pass protection really didn't go downhill until Houston. Going into that game our OL only allowed 8 total hits on the QB.

 

QB Hits by game:

Chicago: 2

Miami: 2

SD: 4

Houston: 16 (YIKES!)

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Come on Chan u know what he is trying to say

use

yes he does ...... but since when has that really mattered if he can use argument against EJ

[BarleyNY]

I thinking this was sort of his centerpiece:

"The sweet spot for trading Manuel could be early August. At that point, Bills coaches would have two months of spring camps and about two weeks of training camp to have evaluated him. If they don't like what they see, they could try to strike a deal before the rest of the NFL has a chance to see Manuel on film in preseason games."

This is probably the dumbest part of the article. Talk about selling low. If in early August the Bills are looking to trade EJ (or any team is looking to trade a QB), then the situation is obvious - the FO/coaches think he is terrible and are looking to deal him before he shows in preseason because they know he'll stink. Does anyone think EJ won't show well in preseason games with simplistic offenses and defenses? Especially if he runs second string? It isn't like the coaches couldn't put him in a great position to look good. Then other teams might come calling. Then his value is up. It is certainly worth the risk unless he looks abysmal in camp.

 

Please note that I am not lobbying for this to happen (unless the Bills acquire a better long term prospect than EJ). I am just pointing out a pretty bad flaw in the article.

[thebandit27]

Interesting note on EJ from Football Outsiders:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-adjusted-interceptions

 

EJ ranked 7th-best in the NFL in "Adjusted Interception Rate".

 

No, this doesn't mean that he will or won't become a franchise QB; it's just an interesting note.

[ALF]

HOF QB Joe Namath, I was surprised by his stats

 

Percentage: 50.1 TD–INT: 173–220 Passing yards: 27,663 QB Rating: 65.5

[Doc]

HOF QB Joe Namath, I was surprised by his stats

Percentage: 50.1 TDINT: 173220 Passing yards: 27,663 QB Rating: 65.5

Yeah, saw that a few years ago. A different era, but that TD:INT ratio is bad.

[FireChan]

Interesting note on EJ from Football Outsiders:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-adjusted-interceptions

 

EJ ranked 7th-best in the NFL in "Adjusted Interception Rate".

 

No, this doesn't mean that he will or won't become a franchise QB; it's just an interesting note.

He was also bottom 3 in attempts.

[Jauronimo]

Finally! A detailed breakdown of a question no one is asking: Should the Bills trade EJ to ????? for ?????? because of..... uhhh ???? ? And the answer is no, not yet, but they'd be wise to gauge ???????'s interest.