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Rodak: Why the Bills should consider trading EJ Manuel


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So size >>> athleticism when it comes to physical talent?

 

Combine Results:

 

EJ:

40 Time: 4.65s

Vertical: 34"

Broad Jump: 118"

3 Cone Drill: 7.08s

20 Yard Shuttle: 4.21 S

Height: 6'5"

Weight: 237 lbs

Arm Length: 35"

Hands: 10 3/8"

 

Tyrod:

40 Time: 4.51s

Vertical: 37.5"

Broad Jump: 126"

3 Cone Drill: 6.78s

20 Yard Shuttle: 4.09s

Height: 6'1"

Weight: 217

Arm Length: 32 1/4"

Hands: 10"

At qb? ABSOLUTELY!

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Ceiling is in the eye of the beholder. Some say Alex Smith, some say Colin Kaep, some say Joe Flacco.

 

If Bortles goes out there and plays worse his second year, and plays worse than Chad Henne, and you're in a position to make a playoff run, you play Henne.

 

if bortles plays worse than Chad Henne and you therefore play Chad Henne, you are not in a position for a playoff run.

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He had a worse QBR and passer rating. His "highs" in his second season didn't come close to the ones in his first, and his lows were worse. Houston was worse than the Tampa game IMO.

So you're saying that his second season's sample size is large enough to count now?

Edited by Dorkington
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So you're saying that his second season's sample size is large enough to count now?

"Now" implies that I have previously said that it was too small.

 

But based on the things coming out of practice, the readily apparent lost confidence, Marrone scrubbing the tapes to hide EJ's bad plays, and the games, I would definitely say he was worse in year two.

 

I think you're confusing sample size when talking about rates, vs comparing years. A comparison of 4 games and offseason to 10 games and offseason isn't that drastic. Now, 4 games to 16 games rated by attempt is a differen story, especially because the numbers are vastly different.

Edited by FireChan
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3rd smallest sample size.

 

EJ's next pass could be a pick, and his rate changes drastically compared to a QB who played all of 2014.

 

 

 

And his next pass could be a TD, which doesn't change it at all.

 

The whole purpose of showing the statistic as a rate is to project the probability of his next pass being an INT. Assuming it will be, based on him having one of the lowest percentages, would be a folly that belies the data presented.

 

Now, if you want to claim that the relatively small sample size isn't enough to lend credence to the rate, fine...in fact I may even agree with it. Using it against him, however, would be a total non-sequitur.

 

 

That was my claim.

 

I just used the INT example to demonstrate how a small sample size could quickly be skewed in a different direction.

 

 

"Now" implies that I have previously said that it was too small.

 

But based on the things coming out of practice, the readily apparent lost confidence, Marrone scrubbing the tapes to hide EJ's bad plays, and the games, I would definitely say he was worse in year two.

 

I think you're confusing sample size when talking about rates, vs comparing years. A comparison of 4 games and offseason to 10 games and offseason isn't that drastic. Now, 4 games to 16 games rated by attempt is a differen story, especially because the numbers are vastly different.

....alright

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He had a worse QBR and passer rating. His "highs" in his second season didn't come close to the ones in his first, and his lows were worse. Houston was worse than the Tampa game IMO.

 

I disagree with the second half of this...he was bad in the Houston game, but at least he lead a few scoring drives and kept them competitive right down to the final drive (and a missed PI penalty on Woods might've even changed the outcome of the game).

 

He never got a single thing going in either the Pittsburgh or TB games as a rookie...although they did precede his two best performances as a rookie.

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....alright

It's more qualitative and quantitative to me when comparing EJ's seasons, if that makes sense. But you're right, the 2014 could have been stricken by a small sample size. But I don't think so.

 

And, like I said, there are QB's on that attempts list with almost 6 times as many throws as EJ. 4 games to 10 games is much closer in terms of samples.

 

And, I NEVER said the second season didn't count, I just pointed out the difference in samples.

Edited by FireChan
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It's more qualitative and quantitative to me when comparing EJ's seasons, if that makes sense. But you're right, the 2014 could have been stricken by a small sample size. But I don't think so.

 

And, like I said, there are QB's on that attempts list with almost 6 times as many throws as EJ. 4 games to 10 games is much closer in terms of samples.

I guess I'm just a simple person, I think 2014 counts for EJ, both the good parts and the bad parts. If we include EJ's 2013 stats, he still fares pretty well in terms of protecting the football. Doesn't mean he's a great QB, its just one attribute in his overall game. If you want your overly complicated view of counting certain aspects of 2014, but not others, then so be it, I was just asking for clarification. :)

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I guess I'm just a simple person, I think 2014 counts for EJ, both the good parts and the bad parts. If we include EJ's 2013 stats, he still fares pretty well in terms of protecting the football. Doesn't mean he's a great QB, its just one attribute in his overall game. If you want your overly complicated view of counting certain aspects of 2014, but not others, then so be it, I was just asking for clarification. :)

I never said anything didn't count. All we can do is take the information available to us and form an opinion. Not all of the evidence is going to fit perfectly, because nothing is simple.

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