Doug Whaley joined L.A. Bills Backers to watch games this morning

[thebandit27]

There's a clear cause and effect here. The departed GM created a situation which required his successor to take a QB. I fault Nix for prioritizing positions other than QB in 2011-12 and Whaley for thinking Manuel was the guy.

 

I understand that, and have said that I agree with it. Passing on guys like Dalton, Kaeparnick, Wilson, and Foles really hurt the team, and that's on Nix.

 

In the latter point, I slightly understand the initiative but ultimately bad judgement: Whaley had few options. If they were that enamored of Manuel, why add a brittle Kevin Kolb when you knew the former wasn't ready to play? As others have pointed out, that strategy backfiring was a reasonable possibility. And lo and behold it did.

 

I don't think they were enamored with EJ; they needed a QB, and--as you rightly stated--Whaley had few options. I don't doubt for a second that they drafted EJ knowing fully well he might not work out; any team that drafts any college QB should know (and assume, for contingency purposes) as much.

 

I guess my question is this: if you're Whaley, and you're in the position he was in, what exactly are you supposed to do? Not draft a QB? Can you imagine a season of Jeff Tuel and Thad Lewis? Maybe you'd be okay with that on the premise that you take one with a high pick in 2014--that means taking one of Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel, and not getting Watkins...does any of that sound reasonable? To me it doesn't.

[Captain Hindsight]

There is an assumption made in many posts (including yours) that there was a requirement to take a qb in that draft year. That is not the case. The Bills could have still traded down, acquired Kiko, and select a player at another position of need such as an offensive lineman or TE.

 

When an organization drafts a qb in the first round,whether high or low, it is investing in a player who they believe will eventually be their franchise qb. If none of the prospects in that particular qb starved draft don't measure up to being a high end qb prospect then the best approach is to draft another higher rated player at another position. No one can reasonably state that talent at other positions weren't also needed.

 

Instead of reaching in EJ's draft year you either wait for lower round to draft a developmental qb or you simply don't draft a qb because you are desperate for one. Wouldn't it have been better to wait until this year's draft and pick for example Bridgewater or Carr who are better long term prospects? I have watched Bridgwater in a few games this year and it is very obvious that he is simply better than the qb we reached for two years ago.

 

Acting/drafting out of desperation is a recipe for failure. Reaching for a need is rarely better than selecting the better talent, regardless of position. Whaley was enamored with EJ and rated him higher than most other organizations. The bottom line is that he was a developmental prospect who was drafted higher than he should have been. I want EJ to succeed and I'm rooting for this high quality person. But when I watched Bridgewater it was apparent to me that he was a much more developed and a betterr prospect than Manuel.

So you would wait huh? What is the cost of not having a QB at all? Look at the Jets for that example. By your logic our QB last year was Kolb or Tarvaris Jackson. Neither of those guys excite me

 

You are also banking on an awful lot. What if Bridgewater suffered a career ending injury? Just wait until 2016?

 

Bills had to make a move. Even with the benefit of hindsight

[YoloinOhio]

I mean, what would the value of picking alonzo earlier be? What would McShay say???

I still say if you look at the 2013 draft as taking Kiko at 16 and woods and EJ in the 2nd, it "feels better." EJ was always a project. He is looked at differently because he was taken in the 1st. But the financial commitment isn't that great anymore.

 

The only difference IMO is if we had Kiko as a 1st rounder then we'd have him for 5 years instead of 4 before he becomes a FA.

[JohnC]

So you would wait huh? What is the cost of not having a QB at all? Look at the Jets for that example. By your logic our QB last year was Kolb or Tarvaris Jackson. Neither of those guys excite me

 

You are also banking on an awful lot. What if Bridgewater suffered a career ending injury? Just wait until 2016?

 

Bills had to make a move. Even with the benefit of hindsight

 

Would I wait if the prospects available are not in the high end? Absolutely! The Bills drafted a developmental type qb in the first round. If you want to draft that type of raw qb prospect why do it with your first round? When you use a first round pick on a qb you are investing in a player that you believe has a very good chance of developing. A developmenal type qb should never be drafted in the first round.

 

I'm not sure what your point is with Geno Smith and the Jets? I would not have taken him in either the first or second round like the Jets did because I don't believe that he is a top tier qb prospect. Look at how he is performing? He wasn't worth where he was selected. Taking him in the third round might have made more sense for the Jets. If some other team took him then so be it.

 

Your point about the possibility of Bridgewater getting hurt has me perplexed. Every player in the draft and who is playing in the NFL risks getting hurt. So what is the point you are making? Didn't EJ suffer an injury or two in his rookie year?

 

The point I have been making in the prior posts is that the Bills didn't have to draft a qb because of a desperate need if the franchise type qb prospect wasn't there to be had. Reaching for players for a positional need is a recipe for failure.

Edited November 5, 2014 by JohnC

[thebandit27]

The point I have been making in the prior posts is that the Bills didn't have to draft a qb because of a desperate need if the franchise type qb prospect wasn't there to be had. Reaching for players for a positional need is a recipe for failure.

 

And the question you are being asked in response to that point is this: what, then, do you do at the position? Start Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel?

[BillsVet]

I understand that, and have said that I agree with it. Passing on guys like Dalton, Kaeparnick, Wilson, and Foles really hurt the team, and that's on Nix.

 

Fair enough.

 

I don't think they were enamored with EJ; they needed a QB, and--as you rightly stated--Whaley had few options. I don't doubt for a second that they drafted EJ knowing fully well he might not work out; any team that drafts any college QB should know (and assume, for contingency purposes) as much.

 

I guess my question is this: if you're Whaley, and you're in the position he was in, what exactly are you supposed to do? Not draft a QB? Can you imagine a season of Jeff Tuel and Thad Lewis? Maybe you'd be okay with that on the premise that you take one with a high pick in 2014--that means taking one of Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel, and not getting Watkins...does any of that sound reasonable? To me it doesn't.

 

Whaley had few options and there's no two ways about it in 2013. I just wish he'd have added (or kept T. Jackson) a better veteran than an injury prone Kevin Kolb. At least then they'd have had a better insurance policy if the rookie got hurt or was inconsistent. One bad decision made it harder to make a good one to address the QB position.

 

We don't know much about Manziel and Bortles is playing on a bad Jacksonville team. The latter wasn't available and the I don't think former wasn't on their radar given the offensive scheme they want to run.

[thebandit27]

Fair enough.

 

 

 

Whaley had few options and there's no two ways about it in 2013. I just wish he'd have added (or kept T. Jackson) a better veteran than an injury prone Kevin Kolb. At least then they'd have had a better insurance policy if the rookie got hurt or was inconsistent. One bad decision made it harder to make a good one to address the QB position.

 

We don't know much about Manziel and Bortles is playing on a bad Jacksonville team. The latter wasn't available and the I don't think former wasn't on their radar given the offensive scheme they want to run.

 

Agreed--I always felt that Jackson was at least as good an option as Kolb.

[Captain Hindsight]

Would I wait if the prospects available are not in the high end? Absolutely! The Bills drafted a developmental type qb in the first round. If you want to draft that type of raw qb prospect why do it with your first round? When you use a first round pick on a qb you are investing in a player that you believe has a very good chance of developing. A developmenal type qb should never be drafted in the first round.

 

I'm not sure what your point is with Geno Smith and the Jets? I would not have taken him in either the first or second round like the Jets did because I don't believe that he is a top tier qb prospect. Look at how he is performing? He wasn't worth where he was selected. Taking him in the third round might have made more sense for the Jets. If some other team took him then so be it.

 

Your point about the possibility of Bridgewater getting hurt has me perplexed. Every player in the draft and who is playing in the NFL risks getting hurt. So what is the point you are making? Didn't EJ suffer an injury or two in his rookie year?

 

The point I have been making in the prior posts is that the Bills didn't have to draft a qb because of a desperate need if the franchise type qb prospect wasn't there to be had. Reaching for players for a positional need is a recipe for failure.

And the question you are being asked in response to that point is this: what, then, do you do at the position? Start Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel?

 

Yup. You've offered no solution of what they should have done instead. Draft Nassib or Barkley and hope for the best? Developmental players get drafted all the time in the first round. EJ is no exception. You are adding all sorts of revisionist history about Geno too. He was talked about as going first overall, but you wouldn't have drafted him until the third round?

 

The Bills took a chance on the biggest strongest QB in the draft and hoped the collective team around him would make him better. It would have been irresponsible of the coaching staff and the FO to wait another year to get a guy that could be the QB. You talk about how the Bills created a desperate situation? The situation you would have done makes the situation even more dire.

[Fixxxer]

I still say if you look at the 2013 draft as taking Kiko at 16 and woods and EJ in the 2nd, it "feels better." EJ was always a project. He is looked at differently because he was taken in the 1st. But the financial commitment isn't that great anymore.

 

The only difference IMO is if we had Kiko as a 1st rounder then we'd have him for 5 years instead of 4 before he becomes a FA.

 

They should have drafted Nassib in the third or in the fourth before the Giants.

[John from Riverside]

T. Jackson has frankly always been a mystery situation to me.....

 

- The guy is a vet

- The guy played pretty decent every chance he got

- He seemed to fit that read option thing that the bills were trying to do

 

But he never seemed to get a fair shake in Buffalo......I would have had NO PROBLEM with a QB like EJ sitting behind T. Jackson for a year before starting

 

Oh well.....its done and now we have Kyle Orton......I think the bills need to do whatever it takes to keep him in town for at least another year.....I dont want to reach for a QB in the draft and then force them to play before they are ready

[JohnC]

And the question you are being asked in response to that point is this: what, then, do you do at the position? Start Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel?

 

You do what other teams do. You find temporary solutions. Houston had nothing at qb. They picked up Fitz and Mallett. Don't you think that their front office was aware that both qbs were merely temporary answers? There are plenty of second tier type qbs that can be had for reasonable prices. Qbs such as McNown, Hoyer, Shaub, Orton, etc. Backup qbs are available. We had Taveris Jackson and for some inexplicable reason he wasn' given an opportunity to play. Arizona didn't pay a hefty price for Palmer. He and the team are thriving in Arizona.

 

The central point I am making in my posts is that you don''t use a first round pick on a developmental type qb. That is foolish. EJ could turn out to be a good qb in time but he clearly falls in the developmental category. If you don't have your future qb in a particular draft you don't overreach in the hope that the longshot pick will turn out to be better than his draft projection. If the franchise qb is not in a particular draft year then wait for the next year while you find a temporary fix for the short term. That is exactly what the Bills did with the very late Orton pickup.

 

When you use a first round pick on a qb you are investing on a player you want to be your franchise qb for the long-term. In my opinion it isn't wise to use that high of a pick on developmental type qb.

Edited November 5, 2014 by JohnC

[JohnC]

Yup. You've offered no solution of what they should have done instead. Draft Nassib or Barkley and hope for the best? Developmental players get drafted all the time in the first round. EJ is no exception. You are adding all sorts of revisionist history about Geno too. He was talked about as going first overall, but you wouldn't have drafted him until the third round?

 

The Bills took a chance on the biggest strongest QB in the draft and hoped the collective team around him would make him better. It would have been irresponsible of the coaching staff and the FO to wait another year to get a guy that could be the QB. You talk about how the Bills created a desperate situation? The situation you would have done makes the situation even more dire.

 

I don't understand your logic that it would have been irresponsible for the Bills to wait another year for a better qb class. Regardless how impressive his physical tools were he was not a first round talent. If they would have selected in a lower round that would have made more sense.

 

If the Bills would have picked up a veteran qb as a temporary fix and drafted Bridgewater the next year they would now have a better qb prospect on the roster. Anyone who watches Bridgewater and EJ throwing passes and running their offenses will if they have a penny's worth of objectivity conclude that Bridgewater is immensely a better prospect.

[Kelly the Dog]

I don't understand your logic that it would have been irresponsible for the Bills to wait another year for a better qb class. Regardless how impressive his physical tools were he was not a first round talent. If they would have selected in a lower round that would have made more sense.

 

If the Bills would have picked up a veteran qb as a temporary fix and drafted Bridgewater the next year they would now have a better qb prospect on the roster. Anyone who watches Bridgewater and EJ throwing passes and running their offenses will if they have a penny's worth of objectivity conclude that Bridgewater is immensely a better prospect.

No he's not. He's a complete unknown and has looked worse than EJ at times.You're also ignoring that what Whaley did was trade down and get a high #2 pick in addition to the pick used to select EJ, substantially lessening that great risk you're talking about. And the result of that pick was a budding star.

[thewildrabbit]

The bigger picture is that the Bills had an owner who should have found his own John Elway type to run his team the last ten years rather then the Hodgepodge mess that has ensued. A retired NFL HC in Marv Levy as GM, and when he stepped down. The HC Dick Jauron as de facto GM along with the baseball marketing guy running things. Hiring a 70 year old retired chief scout, and promoting him to GM. So much dysfunction for so long.

 

I just thank the football gods that the Pegula's bought the team, and have enough money to hire the best, and most knowledgeable people on the planet to help run the team. They have a history of hiring great people to work for them in all the businesses they own. No matter what happens this year I just see so much improvement coming next season. Its going to be a great time to be a Bills fan.

[JohnC]

No he's not. He's a complete unknown and has looked worse than EJ at times.You're also ignoring that what Whaley did was trade down and get a high #2 pick in addition to the pick used to select EJ, substantially lessening that great risk you're talking about. And the result of that pick was a budding star.

 

The trade down argument has little sway with me. The trade down was smart in that it got us an additional pick and good player in Kiko. But that doesn't mean that the selection of EJ in the first round was a good value pick. That picked could have been used on a quality OL or TE prospect.

 

There is no doubt that the first images of young qbs don't necessarily indicate how good the qbs are going to be. What I can say with confidence after watching Bridgewater for a few games and watching EJ is that Bridgewater is a better passer and has a better feel for the game. EJ has the stronger arm and the more imposing physical stature. But when you watch both qbs play it is apparent (at least to me) that Bridgwater is the better prospect. He is much more polished in his game compared to the raw manner that EJ has shown so far.

 

I hope I'm wrong in my assessment but what I see is what I see.

[Kelly the Dog]

The trade down argument has little sway with me. The trade down was smart in that it got us an additional pick and good player in Kiko. But that doesn't mean that the selection of EJ in the first round was a good value pick. That picked could have been used on a quality OL or TE prospect.

 

There is no doubt that the first images of young qbs don't necessarily indicate how good the qbs are going to be. What I can say with confidence after watching Bridgewater for a few games and watching EJ is that Bridgewater is a better passer and has a better feel for the game. EJ has the stronger arm and the more imposing physical stature. But when you watch both qbs play it is apparent (at least to me) that Bridgwater is the better prospect. He is much more polished in his game compared to the raw manner that EJ has shown so far.

 

I hope I'm wrong in my assessment but what I see is what I see.

I have seen a lot of this lately. That people are saying two simultaneous things, but they contradict each other. You either take a results stance, or a theory stance. I don't think you can take one for one occurrence that fits your narrative and then the opposite for a different occurrence that fits your narrative.

 

If you say EJ was clearly a bad pick because it was too high and he's SHOWN that he is not going to be good, then you HAVE to accept the trade and the retrospect look at Kiko, too, because that was the occurrence. That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.

 

If you want to look at it theoretically, that you do not reach for a QB at the position in the first round if you don't have one but no one is worthy, that is a very fair criticism, but you still, IMO, have to include a high #2 pick that he got (and then disregard the fact that it turn into gold).

 

He didn't just sit there and take a QB at #1 when there wasn't a good one available. That didn't happen, so IMO you cannot fault him for it.

[GunnerBill]

I don't understand your logic that it would have been irresponsible for the Bills to wait another year for a better qb class. Regardless how impressive his physical tools were he was not a first round talent. If they would have selected in a lower round that would have made more sense.

 

If the Bills would have picked up a veteran qb as a temporary fix and drafted Bridgewater the next year they would now have a better qb prospect on the roster. Anyone who watches Bridgewater and EJ throwing passes and running their offenses will if they have a penny's worth of objectivity conclude that Bridgewater is immensely a better prospect.

 

I repeat... even looking in March 2013 and saying "what about hanging on for a year?" I would not have felt comfortable. None of the 2014 guys were slam dunk picks or anything close to it for me. You also, at that stage have no feel for where you will be drafting a year ahead or how things will go. And I have seen Bridgewater so far and it has been a real mixed bag. Your statement above just is not true. In fact the Texans, without a QB as you rightly identify, passed on all 4 of the consensus top guys in the 2014 draft... so they obviously didn't feel good forcing a pick this year either. Eventually you gotta take the plunge. The point is the Bills should have done it earlier, under Nix, rather than waiting until the situation was beyond desperate and punting on EJ.

[JohnC]

I have seen a lot of this lately. That people are saying two simultaneous things, but they contradict each other. You either take a results stance, or a theory stance. I don't think you can take one for one occurrence that fits your narrative and then the opposite for a different occurrence that fits your narrative.

 

If you say EJ was clearly a bad pick because it was too high and he's SHOWN that he is not going to be good, then you HAVE to accept the trade and the retrospect look at Kiko, too, because that was the occurrence. That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.

 

If you want to look at it theoretically, that you do not reach for a QB at the position in the first round if you don't have one but no one is worthy, that is a very fair criticism, but you still, IMO, have to include a high #2 pick that he got (and then disregard the fact that it turn into gold).

 

He didn't just sit there and take a QB at #1 when there wasn't a good one available. That didn't happen, so IMO you cannot fault him for it.

 

I strenuously disagree with how you are characterizing my position. The additional pick that resulted in Kiko from the trade down was a superb move. I applaud the maneuver. But I stand strong on my position that taking EJ at the spot he was taken is a mistake because he didn't merit a first round grade and selection. That pick could have been used on a higher rated player (such as OL or TE). Including Kiko with a high rated position worthy of the first round selection would have been a better approach to take in my estimation. Your position is that by getting Kiko as a bonus pick that justifies the over-drafting of a developmental qb. That makes little sense to me. Getting Kiko and another first round value pick, regardless of position would have been more prudent and productive.

 

Odds are that EJ could have been available in the second round for us. He was not a first round talent because he simply was too raw of a qb prospect to have been taken in the first round. The consensus analysis of EJ as a prospect was that he was a developmental type prospect who was years away from developing his game. Anyone who has watched him in the early stages of his career can't help to agree with his pre-draft evaluations. Those evaluations do not match his first round status that the Bills bestowed on him.

 

My overarching point in my commentary is that it is not wise to overreach in the draft to fill needs. That is what happened with the EJ selection. When you select a developmental player and rush the player into action before he is ready you end up in a situation where the HC quickly uses the hook on the player in order to salvage a season and his job.

Edited November 6, 2014 by JohnC

[Kelly the Dog]

I strenuously disagree with how you are characterizing my position. The additional pick that resulted in Kiko from the trade down was a superb move. I applaud the maneuver. But I stand strong on my position that taking EJ at the spot he was taken is a mistake because he didn't merit a first round grade and selection. That pick could have been used on a higher rated player (such as OL or TE). Including Kiko with a high rated position worthy of the first round selection would have been a better approach to take in my estimation.

 

Odds are that EJ could have been available in the second round for us. He was not a first round talent because he simply was too raw of a qb prospect to have been taken in the first round. The consensus analysis of EJ as a prospect was that he was a developmental type prospect who was years away from developing his game. Anyone who has watched him in the early stages of his career can't help to agree with his pre-draft evaluations. Those evaluations do not match his first round status that the Bills bestowed on him.

 

My overarching point in my commentary is that it is not wise to overreach in the draft to fill needs. That is what happened with the EJ selection. When you select a developmental player and rush the player into action before he is ready you end up in a situation where the HC quickly uses the hook on the player in order to salvage a season and his job.

So in other words, it's all about value at a draft position? So you would be happy if we took Kiko at #1, which was a need position, and then took EJ at #2 instead because he was a second round guy?

[Captain Hindsight]

I don't understand your logic that it would have been irresponsible for the Bills to wait another year for a better qb class. Regardless how impressive his physical tools were he was not a first round talent. If they would have selected in a lower round that would have made more sense.

 

If the Bills would have picked up a veteran qb as a temporary fix and drafted Bridgewater the next year they would now have a better qb prospect on the roster. Anyone who watches Bridgewater and EJ throwing passes and running their offenses will if they have a penny's worth of objectivity conclude that Bridgewater is immensely a better prospect.

How would it not be irresponsible? This roster was a good QB away from being a contender. To go into the season with Kolb and Jackson hoping a great player might be available next year is a great way to get fired.

 

Clearly we are not going to agree because you think they screwed the pooch. My argument was they made the best possible decision in a bad year to need to make that decision. I give Whaley and Nix a ton of credit for that.

 

But ya that Bridgewater kid, who has 3 TDs to 5 INTs and a fumble and an impressive 44.1 QBR has really been lighting up the league

[3rdand12]

I still say if you look at the 2013 draft as taking Kiko at 16 and woods and EJ in the 2nd, it "feels better." EJ was always a project. He is looked at differently because he was taken in the 1st. But the financial commitment isn't that great anymore.

 

The only difference IMO is if we had Kiko as a 1st rounder then we'd have him for 5 years instead of 4 before he becomes a FA.

No it doesnt " feel better " when you look at the QB position as it stands.

But it was a damned smart and effective turning of a difficult situation into a definitive win in the bigger picture . Stick with your guns Ohio!.

We did not score THE exalted QB of the future ...maybe . But he took a shot didn't he. They had too do something big .

 

The Kiko and Woods score is a fine job of hedgeing your bet dont you all think ? Nice trade .

I know we coulda got a better deal blah blah blah

: )

 

Agreed--I always felt that Jackson was at least as good an option as Kolb.

The mystery lives.

weird and wacky stuff Tavaris Jackson was for the Bills personnel to be graded upon.

area 51 weird

[Mango]

 

 

 

Yup. You've offered no solution of what they should have done instead. Draft Nassib or Barkley and hope for the best? Developmental players get drafted all the time in the first round. EJ is no exception. You are adding all sorts of revisionist history about Geno too. He was talked about as going first overall, but you wouldn't have drafted him until the third round?

 

The Bills took a chance on the biggest strongest QB in the draft and hoped the collective team around him would make him better. It would have been irresponsible of the coaching staff and the FO to wait another year to get a guy that could be the QB. You talk about how the Bills created a desperate situation? The situation you would have done makes the situation even more dire.

 

To revise history, the only way the bills don't draft a QB in 2013 is not to cut Fitz. This talk of not taking one is silly. We didn't have one on the roster.

[Coach Tuesday]

So in other words, it's all about value at a draft position? So you would be happy if we took Kiko at #1, which was a need position, and then took EJ at #2 instead because he was a second round guy?

 

I must admit I'm not totally following you. What JohnC is saying - which I agree with - is that the extra pick that Whaley picked up effectively was squandered on EJ. A much better value would've been to make that same trade, but take an OL/TE/LB/what-have-you with the #1, and Kiko with the #2. EJ is a developmental QB prospect. He didn't warrant a 1st round pick, nor did he warrant a 2nd round pick in my (uninformed, perhaps) estimation. He's a fourth to fifth-round project, not dissimilar from Nassib and Mettenberger and Osweiler.

 

Have our standards diminished so much that as long as our GM makes a good trade and a smart 2nd round value pick, we forgive the botched first round investment?

 

Put another way: Seantrel Henderson in Round 7 does not excuse blowing a pick on Kujo in Round 2. A savvier GM would've gotten Seantrel in Round 7 and would've used the 2nd round pick on someone who can actually play in the NFL. This is not too much to ask...

Edited November 6, 2014 by Coach Tuesday

[JohnC]

So in other words, it's all about value at a draft position? So you would be happy if we took Kiko at #1, which was a need position, and then took EJ at #2 instead because he was a second round guy?

 

Yes, it is very much getting value at a draft position.

 

No I would not have been happy drafting Kiko in the first round becausewe we were able to get him in the second round. Kiko was a second round value player who got drafted where he should have been drafted. The mistake was using a first round pick on a developmental qb who could have been taken in a lower round. If the team was so enamored with EJ and determined to get him they should have traded down again (if they could) in the first round and taken EJ at a lower point and then get an extra pick from the second trade down.

 

You keep missing the point. Kiko was a terrific value pick in the second round. The pick used for EJ in the first round should have been used for a first round graded player. The Bills had plenty of needs. Getting a player ranked in the area where EJ was picked would have been the best approach to take.

 

Again, the strategy is simple. Don't overreach for needs. Draft talent in the vicinity where they are ranked. That did not happen in last year's draft. In my opinion it was a mistake.

[Coach Tuesday]

Yes, it is very much getting value at a draft position.

 

No I would not have been happy drafting Kiko in the first round becausewe we were able to get him in the second round. Kiko was a second round value player who got drafted where he should have been drafted. The mistake was using a first round pick on a developmental qb who could have been taken in a lower round. If the team was so enamored with EJ and determined to get him they should have traded down again (if they could) in the first round and taken EJ at a lower point and then get an extra pick from the second trade down.

 

You keep missing the point. Kiko was a terrific value pick in the second round. The pick used for EJ in the first round should have been used for a first round graded player. The Bills had plenty of needs. Getting a player ranked in the area where EJ was picked would have been the best approach to take.

 

Again, the strategy is simple. Don't overreach for needs. Draft talent in the vicinity where they are ranked. That did not happen in last year's draft. In my opinion it was a mistake.

 

Exactly. A great GM understands (1) where the player should go, in terms of talent and value; and (2) where the player WILL go, based on how other teams estimate his talent and value. BOTH OF THESE ANALYSES ARE CRITICAL.

[JohnC]

To revise history, the only way the bills don't draft a QB in 2013 is not to cut Fitz. This talk of not taking one is silly. We didn't have one on the roster.

 

You and many others are missing the point. If the organization was determined to draft a qb in 2013 they should have drafted a qb in the vicinity of where they were ranked. Manuel was a developmental type prospect (as it is very evident for everyone to see) who was drafted way above his value.

 

In addition, why did the Bills have to draft a qb in the first round when the talent level of that year's draft class was clearly below the first round level? Instead of over-drafting a qb they could have found a second tier veteran qb as a bridge qb until another draft when they could have drafted a first round value qb?

[Orton's Arm]

I have seen a lot of this lately. That people are saying two simultaneous things, but they contradict each other. You either take a results stance, or a theory stance. I don't think you can take one for one occurrence that fits your narrative and then the opposite for a different occurrence that fits your narrative.

 

If you say EJ was clearly a bad pick because it was too high and he's SHOWN that he is not going to be good, then you HAVE to accept the trade and the retrospect look at Kiko, too, because that was the occurrence. That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.

 

If you want to look at it theoretically, that you do not reach for a QB at the position in the first round if you don't have one but no one is worthy, that is a very fair criticism, but you still, IMO, have to include a high #2 pick that he got (and then disregard the fact that it turn into gold).

 

He didn't just sit there and take a QB at #1 when there wasn't a good one available. That didn't happen, so IMO you cannot fault him for it.

 

> That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.

 

You and I see this differently. I see EJ Manuel as the 16th overall pick, and Kiko Alonzo as the 46th overall pick. The fact that it made a ton of sense to take Kiko 46th overall has nothing at all to do with whether Manuel was deserving of that 16th overall pick.

 

The other way to look at it is that Alonzo was so good as to himself justify the 8th overall pick. And that, because of Kiko's success, anything at all Manuel might do with his career should be regarded as a bonus.

 

The thing is, I don't want a general manager who thinks that way. I don't want him to say to himself, "I'm really confident in the linebacker I'm eyeing. So confident that I can afford to throw away my first round pick on a quarterback with great physical tools and little else."

 

I'm assuming that Whaley/Nix didn't embrace the above-described thought process. I'm assuming that they did their very best to evaluate Manuel, and concluded he was worth a first round draft pick. If that's the best evaluation they could provide, then that to me strongly suggests they cannot be trusted to evaluate quarterback talent. Manuel fit the profile of a standard-issue first round bust. Great physical tools, but did nothing to suggest he was particularly accurate or good at quickly processing information on a college football field. To make matters worse, Whaley is still "high on EJ." It's not like he's learned from his past mistake, and can be trusted to do a better job in the future. The fact he is continuing to delude himself about Manuel may impact whether the Bills hold onto Orton.

 

Pegula needs to decide whether Whaley is the right GM for the Bills. Everything I've seen thus far indicates Whaley is not the right man to pick the Bills' quarterback. Nor offensive linemen, for that matter. However, there are other positions he does seem good at evaluating, such as linebacker and wide receiver. I give him credit for that, but it's not enough.

[Kelly the Dog]

I must admit I'm not totally following you. What JohnC is saying - which I agree with - is that the extra pick that Whaley picked up effectively was squandered on EJ. A much better value would've been to make that same trade, but take an OL/TE/LB/what-have-you with the #1, and Kiko with the #2. EJ is a developmental QB prospect. He didn't warrant a 1st round pick, nor did he warrant a 2nd round pick in my (uninformed, perhaps) estimation. He's a fourth to fifth-round project, not dissimilar from Nassib and Mettenberger and Osweiler.

 

Have our standards diminished so much that as long as our GM makes a good trade and a smart 2nd round value pick, we forgive the botched first round investment?

I think "value" is a nonsense term to be honest. I have doubts EJ will ever be a good QB let alone franchise QB. You can always look back and say we should have taken this or that guy. But the fact is, when #1 draft picks are 50-50 chances being a bust, the fact that Whaley got Kiko and EJ with the #8 pick, to me, is very good if not great drafting. It just is.

 

And I think it has been pretty well established that a few teams liked EJ and he was going in the first or second round.

 

If it were EJ and say Kujo, then you could say at this time it looks like a crappy pick.

[Coach Tuesday]

 

I think "value" is a nonsense term to be honest. I have doubts EJ will ever be a good QB let alone franchise QB. You can always look back and say we should have taken this or that guy. But the fact is, when #1 draft picks are 50-50 chances being a bust, the fact that Whaley got Kiko and EJ with the #8 pick, to me, is very good if not great drafting. It just is.

 

And I think it has been pretty well established that a few teams liked EJ and he was going in the first or second round.

 

Oh but it's even worse! Had NE taken EJ in RD1 (as is the rumor), our division rivals would've wasted THEIR first-round pick and would be grooming a future QB who appears to suck!

[Kelly the Dog]

Oh but it's even worse! Had NE taken EJ in RD1 (as is the rumor), our division rivals would've wasted THEIR first-round pick and would be grooming a future QB who appears to suck!

Well if it were New England, Bellicheat would be declared a genius who stole EJ and is now set at QB for the next 20 years.

[JohnC]

Well if it were New England, Bellicheat would be declared a genius who stole EJ and is now set at QB for the next 20 years.

 

Belichick drafted a qb in the second round this year that is a better prospect than the qb we drafted in the first round last year. That doesn't make him a genius but it does demonstrate why certain franchises succeed more than others.

[Kelly the Dog]

Yes, it is very much getting value at a draft position.

 

Again, the strategy is simple. Don't overreach for needs. Draft talent in the vicinity where they are ranked. That did not happen in last year's draft. In my opinion it was a mistake.

Who has them ranked? Todd McShay? The Bills needed a QB to groom in the worst way. The fact the Bills didnt take EJ at 8 is proof positive as I said they didn't consider him a sure fire franchise guy. There was not one available. If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone. It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick. They got their pick of a QB for the possible future, there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out, and we got a star linebacker.

 

To look at it in retrospect, and say we should have taken a better player than EJ AND have taken Kiko, when no one before the draft ever wanted them to take Kiko, and barely ever heard of him, is a ridiculous position to take. I'm sorry. And I like a lot of your stances a lot, one of my favorite posters here.

 

Belichick drafted a qb in the second round this year that is a better prospect than the qb we drafted in the first round last year. That doesn't make him a genius but it does demonstrate why certain franchises succeed more than others.

EJ would have been taken ahead of Garropolo in either draft.

[Mango]

Yes I am an EJ fan. I hope he turns into our guy. Whether or not he does is irrelevant. Not only did we get our guy, we got what looks like maybe the best QB in the class at 16 plus an additional pick. As for Whaley still liking EJ's chances, the FO has shown that even though they like him they are not afraid to move on, by playing Orton. Whether this turns out to be the case in the future has yet to be seen, but so far they have shown they will play the better guy not just the one they like.

 

You can't run your GM out of town for one pick, sorry. The rest of that draft has been solid, FA's good. If we ride with a failing EJ for 3 more years it's a reasonable debate. As of now I think we are jumping at conclusions.

 

Also say EJ wasn't there in the second, there have been a lot of broad strokes painted by saying "there will be a journeyman they could have gotten" or "get somebody else like team x did a year later. Hence the only way I see the Bills not getting a QB in 2013 capable of starting is by keeping Fitz. The stage was set for the pick prior to it. Bills did what they had to do, and of the QB's got the best value.

[Orton's Arm]

Who has them ranked? Todd McShay? The Bills needed a QB to groom in the worst way. The fact the Bills didnt take EJ at 8 is proof positive as I said they didn't consider him a sure fire franchise guy. There was not one available. If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone. It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick. They got their pick of a QB for the possible future, there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out, and we got a star linebacker.

 

To look at it in retrospect, and say we should have taken a better player than EJ AND have taken Kiko, when no one before the draft ever wanted them to take Kiko, and barely ever heard of him, is a ridiculous position to take. I'm sorry. And I like a lot of your stances a lot, one of my favorite posters here.

 

 

EJ would have been taken ahead of Garropolo in either draft.

 

> If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone.

 

Fine with me. Let some other team squander an early pick on a standard-issue quarterback bust.

 

> there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out

 

This season, Manuel averaged 2.13 air yards per attempt. Glennon is averaging is more than double that, at 4.77. There's no reason to describe Manuel as being at least as good as Glennon, when he isn't coming remotely close to matching Glennon's production.

 

> It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick.

 

Kiko is a superb football player. Is he 8th overall good? Possibly. But it's way too early to tell.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Orton's Arm

[JohnC]

Who has them ranked? Todd McShay? The Bills needed a QB to groom in the worst way. The fact the Bills didnt take EJ at 8 is proof positive as I said they didn't consider him a sure fire franchise guy. There was not one available. If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone. It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick. They got their pick of a QB for the possible future, there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out, and we got a star linebacker.

 

To look at it in retrospect, and say we should have taken a better player than EJ AND have taken Kiko, when no one before the draft ever wanted them to take Kiko, and barely ever heard of him, is a ridiculous position to take. I'm sorry. And I like a lot of your stances a lot, one of my favorite posters here.

 

 

EJ would have been taken ahead of Garropolo in either draft.

 

 

Kiko was a well known prospect that had a second round grade. He was one of the top defensive players in the highly rated PAC conference. He was not a surprise pick who was taken higher than he should have been taken.

 

I respectfully disagree with you that EJ was a better prospect than Grappolo. If both players were in the same draft most organizations would have taken Grappolo.

Edited November 6, 2014 by JohnC

[Kelly the Dog]

> If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone.

 

Fine with me. Let some other team squander an early pick on a standard-issue quarterback bust.

 

> there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out

 

This season, Manuel averaged 2.13 air yards per attempt. Glennon is averaging is more than double that, at 4.77. There's no reason to describe Manuel as being at least as good as Glennon, when he isn't coming remotely close to matching Glennon's production.

 

> It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick.

 

Kiko is a superb football player. But is he 8th overall good? Possibly. But it's way too early to tell.

EJ was 2-2 as a starter. He looks like a rookie project who needs experience. He's not ready to play on a team that is good enough to reach the playoffs. That is not a surprise to anyone who watches football seriously.

 

Glennon is terrible IMO. If you think he makes a better pro, everyone is right to their opinion. Glennon stinks. He can throw a great looking ball once in awhile, that's it.

 

 

I respectfully disagree with you that EJ was a better prospect than Grappolo. If both players were in the same draft most organizations would have taken Grappolo.

This is the one I use the most, and I think is the best overall.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/archive/1760229

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1630280/ej-manuel

 

Manuel was a 1-2. Garoppolo 2. EJ was 40 overall. JG 47.

 

Granted, two different years will get a little different results but this was how I saw it in general.

[Kelly the Dog]

Gil Brandt had EJ 27 overall and Garopollo 37. That's first round versus second.

 

Mayock, who I also like, had EJ at 41 and Garopollo at 39 I think. That supports your case but those are the three I looked up so I listed them all. Mayock didn't really like EJ as a prospect but 39 and 41 are pretty even. EJ was his second QB, Garopollo 4 but that doesn't mean anything in two different years.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Kelly the Dog

[Orton's Arm]

EJ was 2-2 as a starter. He looks like a rookie project who needs experience. He's not ready to play on a team that is good enough to reach the playoffs. That is not a surprise to anyone who watches football seriously.

 

Glennon is terrible IMO. If you think he makes a better pro, everyone is right to their opinion. Glennon stinks. He can throw a great looking ball once in awhile, that's it.

 

 

This is the one I use the most, and I think is the best overall.

 

http://www.cbssports...archive/1760229

http://www.cbssports...30280/ej-manuel

 

Manuel was a 1-2. Garoppolo 2. EJ was 40 overall. JG 47.

 

Granted, two different years will get a little different results but this was how I saw it in general.

 

> If you think [Glennon] makes a better pro, everyone is right to their opinion.

 

What aspects of Manuel's game do you like more than Glennon's? Do you think Manuel is more accurate than Glennon? Better at reading the field?

 

If you think Manuel is more accurate than Glennon, or better at reading defenses, or whatever, then what is your explanation for the fact that Manuel's production (as measured by air yards per attempt) is less than half that of Glennon's? Do you think that Tampa Bay's receiving corps is better than Watkins/Woods/Williams?

 

> Glennon stinks. He can throw a great looking ball once in awhile, that's it.

 

Even assuming that's true, how does that make him worse than EJ?

 

> Manuel was a 1-2. Garoppolo 2.

 

What's important isn't just the ranking. It's the text description of the quarterbacks. Garappolo's description praised his throwing accuracy, as well as his "excellent passing vision with quick eyes." Accuracy and information processing ability are the two most important traits to look for when evaluating a QB. Garoppolo displayed both in college, Manuel displayed neither. Garoppolo was by far the better prospect. Which is why he was drafted by a well-run organization; whereas Manuel was taken by a poorly run team with little ability to evaluate quarterback talent.

[GunnerBill]

If you actually look at the full range of stats Glennon has slightly outperformed EJ in their NFL careers to date, but it is a very marginal difference, neither has shown enough thus far to suggest that they are the answer for their QB needy franchises. But that doesn't change my argument that if I was looking at a guy in that 2013 draft and thinking "none of these guys look to me like sure fire hits" I would have been looking for the guy who I think had the most potential to become something special and that for me was EJ Manuel. Now you might not like that because it focuses somewhat on measurables and on the personality, but all the guys had issues with accuracy. They all had issues with footwork. They all had issues with reading defenses. So that was what I'd have made my decision based upon. I also believe it very likely that he would not have been there at #8 in the second round.

 

It was, without question, a punt. Some of us said at the time - even those that liked the pick - this is a punt. But we had backed ourselves into a corner with our previous strategy. Some of you think they should have waited and taken a QB in 2014 and ridden out kolb and TJax, even if they had there wasn't a massively better crop hanging around in 2014. Certainly if you look at the numbers for Bridgewater and Bortles so far that bears that out. Derek Carr is the one who is probably outperforming his draft position so far.

 

It is the "look at all these clever franchises taking Bridgewater, Glennon, Garoppolo, [insert flavour of the week]" posts that continue to annoy me when so far there is nothing to suggest that any of them were cleverer than this Bills. Some of these same people were saying how obvious it was to their eye test that Geno Smith was better until 3 or 4 weeks ago. We have just had in my view 2 drafts from which not many, if any, true franchise calibre QBs will appear. Buffalo missed the boat in the couple of drafts before that which heralded a number of decent options.

[JohnC]

If you actually look at the full range of stats Glennon has slightly outperformed EJ in their NFL careers to date, but it is a very marginal difference, neither has shown enough thus far to suggest that they are the answer for their QB needy franchises. But that doesn't change my argument that if I was looking at a guy in that 2013 draft and thinking "none of these guys look to me like sure fire hits" I would have been looking for the guy who I think had the most potential to become something special and that for me was EJ Manuel. Now you might not like that because it focuses somewhat on measurables and on the personality, but all the guys had issues with accuracy. They all had issues with footwork. They all had issues with reading defenses. So that was what I'd have made my decision based upon. I also believe it very likely that he would not have been there at #8 in the second round.

 

It was, without question, a punt. Some of us said at the time - even those that liked the pick - this is a punt. But we had backed ourselves into a corner with our previous strategy. Some of you think they should have waited and taken a QB in 2014 and ridden out kolb and TJax, even if they had there wasn't a massively better crop hanging around in 2014. Certainly if you look at the numbers for Bridgewater and Bortles so far that bears that out. Derek Carr is the one who is probably outperforming his draft position so far.

 

It is the "look at all these clever franchises taking Bridgewater, Glennon, Garoppolo, [insert flavour of the week]" posts that continue to annoy me when so far there is nothing to suggest that any of them were cleverer than this Bills. Some of these same people were saying how obvious it was to their eye test that Geno Smith was better until 3 or 4 weeks ago. We have just had in my view 2 drafts from which not many, if any, true franchise calibre QBs will appear. Buffalo missed the boat in the couple of drafts before that which heralded a number of decent options.

 

Many people are arguing that they Bills needed to draft a qb with a high round pick in the 2013 draft. Most analysts stated that the 2013 qb class was mediocre. So why dip into the mediocre pool to find your qb of the future? There were other options. In fact the very late Orton acquisition is a testament to going with the bridge qb and continue with your search for a long-term franchise qb.

 

EJ was benched by a coach determined to not allow this team waste another year mired in mediocrity due to inadequate qb play. He had no other choice but to go with the veteran qb who gave him the best chance to succeed. The developmental qb that the Bills selected is in the position where he should have been all along, as a multi-year prospect. If that is the case then wouldn't it have been better to wait for another draft class or two and get a qb who is more highly rated and who has a better chance to become a franchise qb?

 

In my opinion Carr and Bridgewater were better prospects than EJ. Both are more accurate passers. In the few games that I watched Bridgewater there is no doubt in my mind that not only is he a better passer but he has more presence as a qb running an offense.

 

Only time will tell whether EJ will develop into what many hoped for. Buf after watching hm in this relatively short time span it is evident (to me) that his level of accuracy and his mechanics are too erratic for a league that requires impeccable accuracy and strong fundamentals in one's mechanics to succeed at that very challenging position.

 

I know it irritates some people to hear the same mantra but it is a mistake to overreach to draft for a need at the expense of passing on higher rated and more talented players. Without a doubt the Bills overreached with the selection of EJ. Anyone who has watched him even at this very early stage has to be troubled by what they have seen so far.