ezbills Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm done correcting the ESPN playoff machine. I've done it numerous times in numerous threads. They don't do the tie-breaker properly with the Ravens. Look back a few pages for the explanation. Computers are not perfect. You're 100% correct, we lose out to the Ravens in any tiebreaker situation unfortunately. We'd be 2-3 in common games and they'd be 3-2 (vs. MIA, SD, HOU, and CLE). My guess is ESPN's software doesn't include common opponent tiebreakers for all various combinations of teams that could be tied since that would be a huge pain to include. Simply put, we need 3 of the following 5 things to happen: SD loss, KC loss, CIN 2 losses, PIT 2 losses, BAL 2 losses. When you factor in the head to head matchups of KC-SD (eliminating someone) and CIN-PIT (putting someone in ahead of us), we need 2 of these 3 things to happen: the PIT-CIN loser loses their Week 16 game, the SD-KC winner loses their Week 16 game, or 2 Ravens losses. 2 Ravens losses is by far the least likely scenario. Fortunately for us, if all "favorites" win their games, we'd get the help we need (we'd need to win our 2 games of course). The favorites currently would be SF over SD, PIT over KC, BAL over HOU, DEN over CIN for this week, then PIT over CIN, KC over SD, BAL over CLE next week. Those results would put us in over CIN, SD, and KC. Based on the various scenarios and the likelihood of each result happening I give us a 29% chance of getting the help we need, which goes up to 40% if SF beats SD and falls to 17% if SD beats SF. The key games are really DEN beating CIN and SF beating SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well the playoff machine is what goodell uses when he declares the playoff matchups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Well the playoff machine is what goodell uses when he declares the playoff matchups You may very well be right on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 (edited) You're 100% correct, we lose out to the Ravens in any tiebreaker situation unfortunately. We'd be 2-3 in common games and they'd be 3-2 (vs. MIA, SD, HOU, and CLE). My guess is ESPN's software doesn't include common opponent tiebreakers for all various combinations of teams that could be tied since that would be a huge pain to include. Simply put, we need 3 of the following 5 things to happen: SD loss, KC loss, CIN 2 losses, PIT 2 losses, BAL 2 losses. When you factor in the head to head matchups of KC-SD (eliminating someone) and CIN-PIT (putting someone in ahead of us), we need 2 of these 3 things to happen: the PIT-CIN loser loses their Week 16 game, the SD-KC winner loses their Week 16 game, or 2 Ravens losses. 2 Ravens losses is by far the least likely scenario. Fortunately for us, if all "favorites" win their games, we'd get the help we need (we'd need to win our 2 games of course). The favorites currently would be SF over SD, PIT over KC, BAL over HOU, DEN over CIN for this week, then PIT over CIN, KC over SD, BAL over CLE next week. Those results would put us in over CIN, SD, and KC. Based on the various scenarios and the likelihood of each result happening I give us a 29% chance of getting the help we need, which goes up to 40% if SF beats SD and falls to 17% if SD beats SF. The key games are really DEN beating CIN and SF beating SD. Finally someone who knows what they heck they are talking about! On a side note, the "Machine" seems to be fixed now. Edited December 16, 2014 by Mark80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 (edited) If so, is there a % out there of us getting in, assuming we win our next two? (Which is the whole point, to me.) Yeah, 34% Edited December 16, 2014 by QCity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 (edited) Here is the long and short of it: The Bills probably want Pittsburgh to win out. SF to show up and beat SD & Den to beat Cin. If that happens and we win out we are in. Edited December 16, 2014 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Here is the long and short of it: The Bills probably want Pittsburgh to win out. SF to show up and beat SD & Den to beat Cin. If that happens and we win out we are in. Still need a KC loss or KC, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh could still bump us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 (edited) Still need a KC loss or KC, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh could still bump us out. Pittsburgh would beat KC & Cin if they win out. They'd knock them both out. The playoffs would be Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Buffalo, NE, Denver and Indy. Edited December 16, 2014 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Here is the long and short of it: The Bills probably want Pittsburgh to win out. SF to show up and beat SD & Den to beat Cin. If that happens and we win out we are in. Correct. Assuming KC + SD lose one each Cincinatti - 2-0 Pittsburgh - 1-1 Baltimore - 1-1 We don't get in. Cincinatti - 1-1 Pittsburgh - 1-1 Baltimore - 2-0 We don't get in. Cincinatti - 1-1 Pittsburgh - 2-0 Baltimore - 1-1 We get in We are really rooting for Pittsburgh. Or else we will need to rely on two of the AFC North teams losing 2 games like you describe. Or this situation Or the most likely scenario: Baltimore 2-0, Pittsburgh 2-0 and Cincinnati 0-2: we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Correct. Or the most likely scenario: Baltimore 2-0, Pittsburgh 2-0 and Cincinnati 0-2: we're in. We would still need SD to lose to either SF or KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 We would still need SD to lose to either SF or KC. Yes. His post opened with "assuming KC and SD lose at least one game each." Anyway if the favorite wins every game here on out, the Ravens would go 2-0, Pittsburgh would go 2-0, Cincinnati would go 0-2 and KC and San Diego would each go 1-1. If all that happens and the Bills win out, they're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJDK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 (edited) From what I can tell we want cinci to win the north and win out against denver (wk16) and pittsburgh (wk17). we want Pittsburgh to beat KC (wk16) and lose to cinci (wk17) we want KC to lose to pittsburgh (wk16) and beat SD (wk17) we want SD to lose to san francisco (wk 16) and lose to KC (wk17). we want Baltimore to lose (wk 16) AND lose to cleveland (wk 17).. In this scenario its us and pittsburgh with the wildcard. That's the best one I could come up with but it is also assuming we win the last two games and beating New England at home is easier said than done. Edited December 17, 2014 by SJDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Yes. His post opened with "assuming KC and SD lose at least one game each." Anyway if the favorite wins every game here on out, the Ravens would go 2-0, Pittsburgh would go 2-0, Cincinnati would go 0-2 and KC and San Diego would each go 1-1. If all that happens and the Bills win out, they're in. It really doesn't feel all that crazy to me. The hardest thing will be winning in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 From what I can tell we want cinci to win the north and win out against denver (wk16) and pittsburgh (wk17). we want Pittsburgh to beat KC (wk16) and lose to cinci (wk17) we want KC to lose to pittsburgh (wk16) and beat SD (wk17) we want SD to lose to san francisco (wk 16) and lose to KC (wk17). we want houston to beat Baltimore (wk 16) AND lose to cleveland (wk 17). but if they beat cleveland in week 17 and we beat the pats we own better record in our division and win the tie breaker. In this scenario its us and pittsburgh with the wildcard. That's the best one I could come up with but it is also assuming we win the last two games and beating New England at home is easier said than done. This is well and good but the Ravens are going 2-0. Our best bet is for Cincinnati to lose out. They are going to be underdogs in each of their last two games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Easy to say that, but football is an emotional game. It's just not the same and particularly so for a team like the 49ers that's used to playing in big games in the playoffs and Super Bowls. I hope you're right of course. Additionally, a lot of these guys have no clue about professionalism, as much as we think they are self motivated at all times. Most do, but even a handful of guys coasting in a game or all week at practice can make a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It really doesn't feel all that crazy to me. The hardest thing will be winning in New England. Agreed, it's not crazy at all. In fact, I think it's rather likely that if we win out we would make the playoffs. The one thing that kinda sucks is that we need Denver to beat Cincinnati, meaning that New England would have to beat us to clinch homefield. I just don't see Kyle Orton going into Gillette stadium and outdueling Tom Brady in a game the Patriots need to have. Maybe Spiller will provide a spark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It really doesn't feel all that crazy to me. The hardest thing will be winning in New England. It's not that it's far fetched outcomes, it's just a lot of dominos that have to fall right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 (edited) It's not that it's far fetched outcomes, it's just a lot of dominos that have to fall right. Ehh. I honestly think it's about 50/50. A lot of dominoes would have to fall a certain way for the Bills NOT to make the playoffs at 10-6 as well. This weekend we want San Diego to lose (definitely), Baltimore to lose (definitely but they're not going to; I've conceded a playoff spot to them at this point), Pittsburgh to beat Kansas City (almost definitely), Denver to beat Cincinnati (definitely) Edited December 16, 2014 by metzelaars_lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. Does this mean if 3 teams wind up tied for the wild card at 10-6 and 2 are from NFC North that one of them is eliminated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. Does this mean if 3 teams wind up tied for the wild card at 10-6 and 2 are from NFC North that one of them is eliminated? Eliminated from the first calculation. Then we are booted. Then we go head to head in the second wildcard spot and lose. That's what the thread is about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts