Predictions for Best, Worst and Most Likely Outcome for Bills

[Dibs]

Check out this article where Vegas bookmakers say they don't play for 50/50:

 

http://www.covers.co...x?theArt=252144

 

In fact, the head from the Hilton (now lvh) says games are uneven 90% of the time. The gold Coast bookmaker says that they make all their money on the lopsided games.

 

What you said makes sense but doesn't mesh with what I've heard the bookmakers say, both online and in other interviews.

 

In retrospect, I see that I was too fixated on my point......and wasn't as flexible as I should have been in my thinking.

 

This excerpt from your link gives a good representation that they will do both(move and not move) depending on the situation:

 

 

“Ninety percent of the time it’s not two-way action,” Hilton Las Vegas sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay said with little prying on my part. “We’ve got to make decisions on those games.”

 

By decisions, Kornegay means whether to move the line or stay put. He has to decide whether he feels like his book is on the right side of an unbalanced handle. In other words, does he think his book will win the game or will the bettors take him to the cleaners?

 

 

 

I think my point still holds though as I would be pretty certain that the initial lines not only reflect the game situation, but would be influenced by analytic data of expected betting patterns.

 

On a side note......I find it interesting you mention the gold Coast above. Not sure exactly where they are referring to(article says Coast Casino), but my knowledge(or supposed knowledge as the case may be) came from people whom I used to work with who had previously had high positions in both the Australian Gold Cost Casino(Jupiters) and Crown Casino Melbourne. I'm figuring the one in the article is a US casino though.

[Rico]

Best: 10-6 WC (EJ progresses OR Orton performs just good enough after a quick hook, Marrone & Whaley stay, Brandon leaves for a league office job )

 

Worst: 3-13 (EJ is horrible/gets hurt & Orton is horrible OR EJ is horrible and no hook for Orton, Marrone, Whaley, & Brandon gone)

 

Most Likely: 8-8 (EJ gets the hook but not in time to make the playoffs, Brandon & Whaley stay, Marrone maybe)

[jumbalaya]

I have seen nothing offensively that gets us past 6 wins.

• Sammy can't stay on the field.
  
• EJ can't throw deep, short or over the middle.
  
• Offensive line is very suspect.
  
• CJ will be a distraction as soon as he's not making the yards he needs for a big contract.
  
• TE play will be poor again.
  
• Mike Williams "just throw it in the clouds" is great but Hackett won't just throw it in the clouds and prefers check down.
  

[eball]

My "honest" assessment:

 

Best case -- EJ shows reasonable 2nd year progression, the OL gels quickly, CJ has a monster year, the defense is top 5, and Buffalo goes 12-4 and wins the East.

 

Worst case -- EJ starts very slowly or gets hurt, OL pieces don't come together, CJ is injured early, the secondary is a liability, and Buffalo goes 5-11, leading to many individuals losing their jobs.

 

"Most likely" case -- EJ is no worse than last year, the defense is top 10, they withstand a couple of significant injuries along the way and finish just out of the WC at 9-7 but show enough progress that the staff remains intact.

[MDH]

Oh Christ! Should have anticipated schools being closed and cut off the registration for a day.. One time, I'll offer you and your fellow 6th graders an education on this. So lose the Dunce Cap and grab a pen & paper.

 

No, there'll be no crow to eat and a bandwagon doesn't exist. I'm a native WNYer who is older than the Bills. They are my 'family' for life, yet they hang around my neck like an albatross. (Stay in school, you'll read this in a couple years). Undeniably, they COULD be Super Bowl Champs this season. The Ravens beat the G-Men for a title with an equally inept offense and QB, though their defense produced all of the scoring in 4 wins that year. But, unlike that B'more team, there has been no evidence that the Bills should or even COULD compete this year. Pre-season is the time to get the team ready to compete for the year. As has happened too many times, the lethargy and pathetic performances have the FO scrambling after the final -and 5TH- preseason game, trying to find other teams garbage to make up a team, while kicking all the QB's they're were so high on -to the curb, save their 1st Rd pick from a year ago. Manuel didn't outplay his now departed teammates, he's simply the Chosen One the FO will live or die with. THEY claim he has "huge upside". He has to. If he didn't, then his entire body of work at the position to date wouldn't find him currently in the NFL. Opposing defenses WILL stack the box on 1st & 2nd down, then blitz on third down. This will continue until a QB shows some mettle and takes advantage of it. This was the mantra against Baltimore, but their defense slammed the door on the opposing offenses. Few -if any- signs are evident it will happen here.

Add to the continued Learning Curve of our QB, a Murderers Row of 2nd half opponents, whereby we're either 4-2 after 6 games or the season swirls down the toilet again.

 

No one here - I repeat NO ONE here wants the Bills to lose or Manuel to fail. We wouldn't be here if we weren't die hard fans of the team. Most of us are off our mothers' teet and don't eat sugared cereal anymore, and through intense following of the team, combined with nearly a generation of ineptness, are all too familiar with the current script as its playing out.

 

Should the miracle happen and Brandon Spikes leads us to a World Championship this season, I'll fly to Buffalo for the parade, dust off my moth-eaten jerseys and shed tears for lost family and friends who equally loved the team and were never rewarded. Yes, there'll even be tears of joy.

 

Lesson over. Now go brush your teeth and lay out your clothes for tomorrow.

 

I got a warning point for way less than this.

[Nick the Greek]

Once Orton starts carving up defenses, we will be 10-6 with a wildcard birth. GO BILLS!

[MDH]

Once Orton starts carving up defenses,

 

Once he starts doing this it will be for the first time in his career.

[kasper13]

Best: Terry Pegula is named new owner, learned his lesson in not cleaning house when he took over the Sabres as the Bills finish 8-8 and everyone is fired on 12/29.

Worst: MLSE is named new owner as the Bills finish 3-13 and Cleveland gets the 1st overall pick in 2014.

Most Likely: Kyle Orton leads the Bills to a 9-7 record, just missing a wild card berth in a season ending loss at New England. Pegula gives everyone another year.

[bisonbrigade]

Best, 10-6 EJ manages team well, no bad injuries.

Worst 7-9 After 4 games it is evident EJ does not work and Orton pilots the ship from there.

Most likely 8-8. A little of both.

 

This team is full of talent and is not as bad as some of you think. 5-11 is a joke.

Edited September 1, 2014 by bisonbrigade

[atlbillsfan1975]

Oh Christ! Should have anticipated schools being closed and cut off the registration for a day.. One time, I'll offer you and your fellow 6th graders an education on this. So lose the Dunce Cap and grab a pen & paper.

 

No, there'll be no crow to eat and a bandwagon doesn't exist. I'm a native WNYer who is older than the Bills. They are my 'family' for life, yet they hang around my neck like an albatross. (Stay in school, you'll read this in a couple years). Undeniably, they COULD be Super Bowl Champs this season. The Ravens beat the G-Men for a title with an equally inept offense and QB, though their defense produced all of the scoring in 4 wins that year. But, unlike that B'more team, there has been no evidence that the Bills should or even COULD compete this year. Pre-season is the time to get the team ready to compete for the year. As has happened too many times, the lethargy and pathetic performances have the FO scrambling after the final -and 5TH- preseason game, trying to find other teams garbage to make up a team, while kicking all the QB's they're were so high on -to the curb, save their 1st Rd pick from a year ago. Manuel didn't outplay his now departed teammates, he's simply the Chosen One the FO will live or die with. THEY claim he has "huge upside". He has to. If he didn't, then his entire body of work at the position to date wouldn't find him currently in the NFL. Opposing defenses WILL stack the box on 1st & 2nd down, then blitz on third down. This will continue until a QB shows some mettle and takes advantage of it. This was the mantra against Baltimore, but their defense slammed the door on the opposing offenses. Few -if any- signs are evident it will happen here.

Add to the continued Learning Curve of our QB, a Murderers Row of 2nd half opponents, whereby we're either 4-2 after 6 games or the season swirls down the toilet again.

 

No one here - I repeat NO ONE here wants the Bills to lose or Manuel to fail. We wouldn't be here if we weren't die hard fans of the team. Most of us are off our mothers' teet and don't eat sugared cereal anymore, and through intense following of the team, combined with nearly a generation of ineptness, are all too familiar with the current script as its playing out.

 

Should the miracle happen and Brandon Spikes leads us to a World Championship this season, I'll fly to Buffalo for the parade, dust off my moth-eaten jerseys and shed tears for lost family and friends who equally loved the team and were never rewarded. Yes, there'll even be tears of joy.

 

Lesson over. Now go brush your teeth and lay out your clothes for tomorrow.

Respectfully disagree with this. Baltimore finished 8-8 and won 4 of their last 5 the season before their SB year in 2000. I actually picked them to win the SB with a friend of mine.

 

The Bills this year look bad. I have thought they could win games and make the playoffs each of the last 14 seasons. This year i have no hope, i will watch, but do not expect much. So who knows maybe this will be there year...

worse case 4-12, best case 11-5 and win AFC East and make it to championship game against Denver.

[BoooBerry]

 

 

Oh Christ! Should have anticipated schools being closed and cut off the registration for a day.. One time, I'll offer you and your fellow 6th graders an education on this. So lose the Dunce Cap and grab a pen & paper.

 

No, there'll be no crow to eat and a bandwagon doesn't exist. I'm a native WNYer who is older than the Bills. They are my 'family' for life, yet they hang around my neck like an albatross. (Stay in school, you'll read this in a couple years). Undeniably, they COULD be Super Bowl Champs this season. The Ravens beat the G-Men for a title with an equally inept offense and QB, though their defense produced all of the scoring in 4 wins that year. But, unlike that B'more team, there has been no evidence that the Bills should or even COULD compete this year. Pre-season is the time to get the team ready to compete for the year. As has happened too many times, the lethargy and pathetic performances have the FO scrambling after the final -and 5TH- preseason game, trying to find other teams garbage to make up a team, while kicking all the QB's they're were so high on -to the curb, save their 1st Rd pick from a year ago. Manuel didn't outplay his now departed teammates, he's simply the Chosen One the FO will live or die with. THEY claim he has "huge upside". He has to. If he didn't, then his entire body of work at the position to date wouldn't find him currently in the NFL. Opposing defenses WILL stack the box on 1st & 2nd down, then blitz on third down. This will continue until a QB shows some mettle and takes advantage of it. This was the mantra against Baltimore, but their defense slammed the door on the opposing offenses. Few -if any- signs are evident it will happen here.

Add to the continued Learning Curve of our QB, a Murderers Row of 2nd half opponents, whereby we're either 4-2 after 6 games or the season swirls down the toilet again.

 

No one here - I repeat NO ONE here wants the Bills to lose or Manuel to fail. We wouldn't be here if we weren't die hard fans of the team. Most of us are off our mothers' teet and don't eat sugared cereal anymore, and through intense following of the team, combined with nearly a generation of ineptness, are all too familiar with the current script as its playing out.

 

Should the miracle happen and Brandon Spikes leads us to a World Championship this season, I'll fly to Buffalo for the parade, dust off my moth-eaten jerseys and shed tears for lost family and friends who equally loved the team and were never rewarded. Yes, there'll even be tears of joy.

 

Lesson over. Now go brush your teeth and lay out your clothes for tomorrow.

 

Thank you!

 

I do apologize for stating something that in retrospect was reactionary. I guess I should've expected the same in return. Mr. Chandler I'm sorry.

 

Being in 6th grade I have a lot to learn about manners. Maybe you can teach me how to treat old people with more respect.

 

It just seems from my shortsighted point of view (my dunce cap getting in the way too) that you may want to look at yourself in a mirror. Why would anyone allow themselves to be so controlled by something that they actually have so much control over? Maybe you can regain your joy again. Take back what's yours Mr. Chandler, life is too short. You can break free from this "family" if you really want to.

 

By the way, my brother and I REALLY loved your spectacular toe dragging catches. Good stuff!!

[eball]

I'm a bit tired of old so-and-sos claiming that the mere fact they've been following this team since it's inception gives them the right to be downright ornery sonsabitches.

 

You're better than that. I hope.

[LB3]

I'm a bit tired of old so-and-sos claiming that the mere fact they've been following this team since it's inception gives them the right to be downright ornery sonsabitches.

 

You're better than that. I hope.

 

This

[Rockinon]

I'm a bit tired of old so-and-sos claiming that the mere fact they've been following this team since it's inception gives them the right to be downright ornery sonsabitches.

 

You're better than that. I hope.

How can you not be ornery if you've been around that long?

[NDBUFFCUSEFAN]

 

It seems that you have misunderstood the point that I was making......or perhaps I don't understand what you are saying here(possibly both).

 

I was making the point that the Vegas line is determined by the amounts of bets placed on either side of the line. There were no other points that I was making......hence being unsure of what you meant by your response......particularly "...and you can see how stupid this argument is."

 

I wasn't stating anything for argument based on opinion. What I stated is a fact.

Look at the vig for a better idea of what Vegas thinks.

[eball]

How can you not be ornery if you've been around that long?

 

It's called evolution and personal growth. The power of positivity is not voodoo science.

[PlayoffsPlease]

It's called evolution and personal growth. The power of positivity is not voodoo science.

Are you one of those people that think your personal opinion and what you post on message boards actually effects the performance of the team?

[DirtDart]

Oh Christ! Should have anticipated schools being closed and cut off the registration for a day.. One time, I'll offer you and your fellow 6th graders an education on this. So lose the Dunce Cap and grab a pen & paper.

 

No, there'll be no crow to eat and a bandwagon doesn't exist. I'm a native WNYer who is older than the Bills. They are my 'family' for life, yet they hang around my neck like an albatross. (Stay in school, you'll read this in a couple years). Undeniably, they COULD be Super Bowl Champs this season. The Ravens beat the G-Men for a title with an equally inept offense and QB, though their defense produced all of the scoring in 4 wins that year. But, unlike that B'more team, there has been no evidence that the Bills should or even COULD compete this year. Pre-season is the time to get the team ready to compete for the year. As has happened too many times, the lethargy and pathetic performances have the FO scrambling after the final -and 5TH- preseason game, trying to find other teams garbage to make up a team, while kicking all the QB's they're were so high on -to the curb, save their 1st Rd pick from a year ago. Manuel didn't outplay his now departed teammates, he's simply the Chosen One the FO will live or die with. THEY claim he has "huge upside". He has to. If he didn't, then his entire body of work at the position to date wouldn't find him currently in the NFL. Opposing defenses WILL stack the box on 1st & 2nd down, then blitz on third down. This will continue until a QB shows some mettle and takes advantage of it. This was the mantra against Baltimore, but their defense slammed the door on the opposing offenses. Few -if any- signs are evident it will happen here.

Add to the continued Learning Curve of our QB, a Murderers Row of 2nd half opponents, whereby we're either 4-2 after 6 games or the season swirls down the toilet again.

 

No one here - I repeat NO ONE here wants the Bills to lose or Manuel to fail. We wouldn't be here if we weren't die hard fans of the team. Most of us are off our mothers' teet and don't eat sugared cereal anymore, and through intense following of the team, combined with nearly a generation of ineptness, are all too familiar with the current script as its playing out.

 

Should the miracle happen and Brandon Spikes leads us to a World Championship this season, I'll fly to Buffalo for the parade, dust off my moth-eaten jerseys and shed tears for lost family and friends who equally loved the team and were never rewarded. Yes, there'll even be tears of joy.

 

Lesson over. Now go brush your teeth and lay out your clothes for tomorrow.

Bravo....That was probably the most anger filled post that I have read on this board, yet it brought tears of joy.

[Chandler#81]

 

 

Thank you!

 

I do apologize for stating something that in retrospect was reactionary. I guess I should've expected the same in return. Mr. Chandler I'm sorry.

 

Being in 6th grade I have a lot to learn about manners. Maybe you can teach me how to treat old people with more respect.

 

It just seems from my shortsighted point of view (my dunce cap getting in the way too) that you may want to look at yourself in a mirror. Why would anyone allow themselves to be so controlled by something that they actually have so much control over? Maybe you can regain your joy again. Take back what's yours Mr. Chandler, life is too short. You can break free from this "family" if you really want to.

 

By the way, my brother and I REALLY loved your spectacular toe dragging catches. Good stuff!!

 

I, too, was reactionary and I apologize. This was your 1st post but it echoed the view of so many derogatory posts against members that are truly concerned about the QB and how poor play from that position will derail yet another season where we otherwise have finally amassed enough talent to contend. Around here, it seems, you either have blind faith EJ will succeed or you 'want him to fail'.

Again, I apologize. Welcome to the Board!

[eball]

Are you one of those people that think your personal opinion and what you post on message boards actually effects the performance of the team?

 

That's an odd statement. It's really very simple; people who are ornery and negative make a choice to be that way.