Dibs Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I hate seeing this posted - and it seems to get posted every time someone mentioned a Vegas line. It is something everyone knows. Everyone. And it is ridiculous. Because what doesn't get mentioned is that the expectations of people who are willing to bet money on games are, in general, at least as well informed as the general public. Also professional gamblers and professionals within the gambling institutions are more informed and unbiased when making large bets and setting the lines. Contrast that with the likelihood of bias and hope that a dedicated fan who isn't ponying up any cash except for a jersey and/or seats and you can see how stupid this argument is. It seems that you have misunderstood the point that I was making......or perhaps I don't understand what you are saying here(possibly both). I was making the point that the Vegas line is determined by the amounts of bets placed on either side of the line. There were no other points that I was making......hence being unsure of what you meant by your response......particularly "...and you can see how stupid this argument is." I wasn't stating anything for argument based on opinion. What I stated is a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jo39416 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best : EJ 25 TD's 14 INT's - 10-6 Worst EJ 12 TD's 13 INT's - 4-12 (EJ gets pulled after week 10) Likely EJ 18TD's 16 INT's - 7-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreezeMafia Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 This. My Best case prediction still doesn't include a winning season.. Is what it is, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gale Gilbert Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 http://sports.bovada...-team-props.jsp The line is at 6.5. Vegas knows best. I generally agree, but last year, Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, all outperformed their over/under by at least 2 games last year. I see 9-7 as their best case scenario (2.5 wins above). 5-11 as their worst. Split the difference and most likely they will be 7-9. Wahoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
touchdownbuffalo Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best: 13-3 Worst 6-10 Most likely 10-6 wild card berth P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWinzChampionshipz Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best case: Patriots lose Brady to injury and Jets lose two starting OLinemen to injury and the Bills and Dolphins go head to head to see who wins the division. Worst case: The Bills of the preseason ARE the real Bills. Most likely case: The Bills will have some games that make us say, Yo, if we play like this, we actually got a shot at making the playoffs and some games that make us say, Wow, just wow. How can you play this horrible? Oh and referees "obviously" will go against us a couple of games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoooBerry Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'm curious, for those who state as best case scenario a losing season or at best 8-8, what happens if the Bills make it to the playoffs? Do you join the bandwagon? Do you get upset because they didn't perform as you expected? Is crow part of the diet? Or do you expect the rest of the community to forget your past comments and join in the party with the others like nothing ever was said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 It seems that you have misunderstood the point that I was making......or perhaps I don't understand what you are saying here(possibly both). I was making the point that the Vegas line is determined by the amounts of bets placed on either side of the line. There were no other points that I was making......hence being unsure of what you meant by your response......particularly "...and you can see how stupid this argument is." I wasn't stating anything for argument based on opinion. What I stated is a fact. The whole Vegas balances money thing is often repeated but not exactly true for football. There are a lot of games with extremely uneven bets. They set the lines to get action as a priority over balancing the action. They want lots of bets to be made and lots of money on the table. They will attempt to balance the games sometimes, but there are a large amount of games with lopsided betting when it comes to the nfl and college football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffaloed in Pa Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best 8-8 Worst 4-12 . It`s all up to ...you know. QB play. No play-offs again. Will stop the run,but like a Swartz run D ,the pass coverage will suffer. Can`t have it both ways. Need balance. Today. Good O.C.s will play to your weaknesses.Thinking about not renewing my Sunday Ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kipers Hair Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best - 13-3 - best record in the AFC worst - 2-12 - 1st overall pick to Cleveland Likely - 7-9 - another middling year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 The whole Vegas balances money thing is often repeated but not exactly true for football. There are a lot of games with extremely uneven bets. They set the lines to get action as a priority over balancing the action. They want lots of bets to be made and lots of money on the table. They will attempt to balance the games sometimes, but there are a large amount of games with lopsided betting when it comes to the nfl and college football. What is the payout nowadays? 1.9? If there is $10M bet on a game(or record).....and it is exactly 50/50 betting(even for both sides)....the House will make $0.5M profit. That is a $0.5M profit regardless of which side of the line wins. If they don't adjust the betting and there is a small favour in the betting of just 5%, it becomes 55/45....and if the 55 side wins the House loses $0.45M. You might be right in that the Casino will play the odds on whether the teams that are heavily backed don't regularly win.....but I doubt it. Casinos are in the business of making money, not gambling money(that is for their customers to do). As to your point about generating action....it seems to me that adjusting the odds purely for this purpose would be fraught with potential loss for the Casino. More likely those action generating moves are due to higher betting on one side & the action generated by the move is the byproduct. The old expression "The house never loses" is exactly right. In this case, getting the betting on any line to be close to 50/50 means the House always wins money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 (edited) It seems that you have misunderstood the point that I was making......or perhaps I don't understand what you are saying here(possibly both). I was making the point that the Vegas line is determined by the amounts of bets placed on either side of the line. There were no other points that I was making......hence being unsure of what you meant by your response......particularly "...and you can see how stupid this argument is." I wasn't stating anything for argument based on opinion. What I stated is a fact. What exactly was your point in regards to this thread? It seemed to be that Vegas lines are not good indicators of a team's expected record. My point was that you are wrong about that and that they are, in fact, much better predictors than the average fan's predictions. Apologies if I misunderstood your post. Please clarify what you meant by it if I did. Edited September 1, 2014 by BarleyNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'm curious, for those who state as best case scenario a losing season or at best 8-8, what happens if the Bills make it to the playoffs? Do you join the bandwagon? Do you get upset because they didn't perform as you expected? Is crow part of the diet? Or do you expect the rest of the community to forget your past comments and join in the party with the others like nothing ever was said? Oh Christ! Should have anticipated schools being closed and cut off the registration for a day.. One time, I'll offer you and your fellow 6th graders an education on this. So lose the Dunce Cap and grab a pen & paper. No, there'll be no crow to eat and a bandwagon doesn't exist. I'm a native WNYer who is older than the Bills. They are my 'family' for life, yet they hang around my neck like an albatross. (Stay in school, you'll read this in a couple years). Undeniably, they COULD be Super Bowl Champs this season. The Ravens beat the G-Men for a title with an equally inept offense and QB, though their defense produced all of the scoring in 4 wins that year. But, unlike that B'more team, there has been no evidence that the Bills should or even COULD compete this year. Pre-season is the time to get the team ready to compete for the year. As has happened too many times, the lethargy and pathetic performances have the FO scrambling after the final -and 5TH- preseason game, trying to find other teams garbage to make up a team, while kicking all the QB's they're were so high on -to the curb, save their 1st Rd pick from a year ago. Manuel didn't outplay his now departed teammates, he's simply the Chosen One the FO will live or die with. THEY claim he has "huge upside". He has to. If he didn't, then his entire body of work at the position to date wouldn't find him currently in the NFL. Opposing defenses WILL stack the box on 1st & 2nd down, then blitz on third down. This will continue until a QB shows some mettle and takes advantage of it. This was the mantra against Baltimore, but their defense slammed the door on the opposing offenses. Few -if any- signs are evident it will happen here. Add to the continued Learning Curve of our QB, a Murderers Row of 2nd half opponents, whereby we're either 4-2 after 6 games or the season swirls down the toilet again. No one here - I repeat NO ONE here wants the Bills to lose or Manuel to fail. We wouldn't be here if we weren't die hard fans of the team. Most of us are off our mothers' teet and don't eat sugared cereal anymore, and through intense following of the team, combined with nearly a generation of ineptness, are all too familiar with the current script as its playing out. Should the miracle happen and Brandon Spikes leads us to a World Championship this season, I'll fly to Buffalo for the parade, dust off my moth-eaten jerseys and shed tears for lost family and friends who equally loved the team and were never rewarded. Yes, there'll even be tears of joy. Lesson over. Now go brush your teeth and lay out your clothes for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffaloed in Pa Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Well said Chandler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLZFAN4LIFE Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Worst: 3-13. Best: 6-10. Most likely:4-12. Get ready for more disappointing results. At least Marrone's post-loss press conferences may be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 What exactly was your point in regards to this thread? It seemed to be that Vegas lines are not good indicators of a team's expected record. My point was that you are wrong about that and that they are, in fact, much better predictors than the average fan's predictions. Apologies if I misunderstood your post. Please clarify what you meant by it if I did. Nah, all good. I wasn't making(or at least meaning to make) comment on whether Vegas lines are a better predictor than the average fan's prediction(or vice versa). I was saying that the Vegas lines can't be taken as firm representations of the reality as Vegas changes the lines dependent on the betting involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoooBerry Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Oh Christ! Should have anticipated schools being closed and cut off the registration for a day.. One time, I'll offer you and your fellow 6th graders an education on this. So lose the Dunce Cap and grab a pen & paper. No, there'll be no crow to eat and a bandwagon doesn't exist. I'm a native WNYer who is older than the Bills. They are my 'family' for life, yet they hang around my neck like an albatross. (Stay in school, you'll read this in a couple years). Undeniably, they COULD be Super Bowl Champs this season. The Ravens beat the G-Men for a title with an equally inept offense and QB, though their defense produced all of the scoring in 4 wins that year. But, unlike that B'more team, there has been no evidence that the Bills should or even COULD compete this year. Pre-season is the time to get the team ready to compete for the year. As has happened too many times, the lethargy and pathetic performances have the FO scrambling after the final -and 5TH- preseason game, trying to find other teams garbage to make up a team, while kicking all the QB's they're were so high on -to the curb, save their 1st Rd pick from a year ago. Manuel didn't outplay his now departed teammates, he's simply the Chosen One the FO will live or die with. THEY claim he has "huge upside". He has to. If he didn't, then his entire body of work at the position to date wouldn't find him currently in the NFL. Opposing defenses WILL stack the box on 1st & 2nd down, then blitz on third down. This will continue until a QB shows some mettle and takes advantage of it. This was the mantra against Baltimore, but their defense slammed the door on the opposing offenses. Few -if any- signs are evident it will happen here. Add to the continued Learning Curve of our QB, a Murderers Row of 2nd half opponents, whereby we're either 4-2 after 6 games or the season swirls down the toilet again. No one here - I repeat NO ONE here wants the Bills to lose or Manuel to fail. We wouldn't be here if we weren't die hard fans of the team. Most of us are off our mothers' teet and don't eat sugared cereal anymore, and through intense following of the team, combined with nearly a generation of ineptness, are all too familiar with the current script as its playing out. Should the miracle happen and Brandon Spikes leads us to a World Championship this season, I'll fly to Buffalo for the parade, dust off my moth-eaten jerseys and shed tears for lost family and friends who equally loved the team and were never rewarded. Yes, there'll even be tears of joy. Lesson over. Now go brush your teeth and lay out your clothes for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 What is the payout nowadays? 1.9? If there is $10M bet on a game(or record).....and it is exactly 50/50 betting(even for both sides)....the House will make $0.5M profit. That is a $0.5M profit regardless of which side of the line wins. If they don't adjust the betting and there is a small favour in the betting of just 5%, it becomes 55/45....and if the 55 side wins the House loses $0.45M. You might be right in that the Casino will play the odds on whether the teams that are heavily backed don't regularly win.....but I doubt it. Casinos are in the business of making money, not gambling money(that is for their customers to do). As to your point about generating action....it seems to me that adjusting the odds purely for this purpose would be fraught with potential loss for the Casino. More likely those action generating moves are due to higher betting on one side & the action generated by the move is the byproduct. The old exp<b></b>ression "The house never loses" is exactly right. In this case, getting the betting on any line to be close to 50/50 means the House always wins money. Check out this article where Vegas bookmakers say they don't play for 50/50: http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=252144 In fact, the head from the Hilton (now lvh) says games are uneven 90% of the time. The gold Coast bookmaker says that they make all their money on the lopsided games. What you said makes sense but doesn't mesh with what I've heard the bookmakers say, both online and in other interviews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best: 9-7 Worst: 5-11 Likely: 7-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best? 10-6 or 11-5 making the playoffs Worst? A 3-13 marred by injuries and poor QB play Likely? 8-8 with the defense keeping us in a lot of games where we will all be talking about what could've, should've been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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