IronyAbounds Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Whether you're a pessimist or an optimist, at this particular point in time the Bills are tied for first in the AFC East, and tied for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. What's your realistic view of the best and worst the Bills will do this year? IMHO: Best: 10-6, 3rd wild card team Worst: 5-11, last in AFC East Most Likely: 7-9, tied with Fins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Overall I think you have it about right on all counts. I think your "best" is a bit high though. I'd say more like 8-8 or 9-7 is our best upside. I have a hard time looking at the schedule and finding 10 wins, but you never know! This is why they play the games! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I think 8-8 shouldn't be an option. If we're making wild stabs at the future, you might as well have the grapes to pick a direction. I say, a unlikely fantastic start to the season at 4-2. Then another Fitzpatrick-like heart-wrenching let down as we fall to "teams we should beat" getting to 4-5. Then a 3 game winning streak bringing us to 7-5 and high hopes, only to lose the remaining 4 games. The loss to Oakland will sting the worst. Giving us a 7-9 season that some will tout as improvement over last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doug Flutie Band Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/football-team-props.jsp The line is at 6.5. Vegas knows best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtDart Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Overall I think you have it about right on all counts. I think your "best" is a bit high though. I'd say more like 8-8 or 9-7 is our best upside. I have a hard time looking at the schedule and finding 10 wins, but you never know! This is why they play the games! I agree with 9-7. Second half of the season we have a tough schedule. If we can put up enough wins in the first half, we have a chance at squeaking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 http://sports.bovada...-team-props.jsp The line is at 6.5. Vegas knows best. Betting odds are determined by the number of people betting.....particularly with line betting. The book maker endeavors to get the same number of people betting on each side of the line. If the numbers blow out on any particular side they may make a loss(which is not their aim). When the number of people betting is lobsided(to the line), the odds will be adjusted accordingly. In short, the line is determined by the mass gambling populous' perception of expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Betting odds are determined by the number of people betting.....particularly with line betting. The book maker endeavors to get the same number of people betting on each side of the line. If the numbers blow out on any particular side they may make a loss(which is not their aim). When the number of people betting is lobsided(to the line), the odds will be adjusted accordingly. In short, the line is determined by the mass gambling populous' perception of expectations. Right, and people putting money up represent a much more objective and better researched audience than the biased perceptions of a die hard fan base. Best 16-0. Super Bowl victory Worst 0-16, heroes to the Cleveland Browns Most Likely, 8-8 you win some, you lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Right, and people putting money up represent a much more objective and better researched audience than the biased perceptions of a die hard fan base. Umm, you don't know very much about gamblers, do you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 (edited) Right, and people putting money up represent a much more objective and better researched audience than the biased perceptions of a die hard fan base. Geez....I don't know about that. When I was 19, dumb and completely ignorant about any finer points of football, my friends(also ignorant) would bet on the games each week. Hell, I consider myself well grounded, unbiased, intelligent and knowledgeable now and I have no idea how well the Bills are going to play this year.....let alone the other 31 teams. Edited September 1, 2014 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreezeMafia Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best - 8-8 Worst - 3-13 Most likely - 5-11 A subpar, immature offensive coordinator + a young QB who is not taking any steps forward = another long Bills season and the end of the Marrone era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Geez....I don't know about that. When I was 19, dumb and completely ignorant about any finer points of football, my friends(also ignorant) would bet on the games each week. Hell, I consider myself well grounded, unbiased, intelligent and knowledgeable now and I have no idea how well the Bills are going to play this year. The gambling public at large are no smarter or dumber than your average fan base. The "sharps" or serious gamblers have already put their money on these lines within moments of them coming out (if they even bet futures like this, which I doubt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rivermont Mike Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Bolded are Ws that I'll feel really good about. NE win is our home game Best case: Wins--CHI, MIA(2), SD, HOU, DET, NE, JETS (2), KC, CLE, OAK 12-4 Likely: Wins--MIA, HOU, DET, NE, JETS, KC, CLE, OAK 8-8 (could go to 10-6 if we sweep MIA and JETS) Worst case: Wins--MIA, HOU, DET, JETS, CLE, OAK 6-10 (again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan17 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best 9-7 Worst 3-13 Most Likely 5-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best: 6-10 Worse: 6-10 Most Likely: 6-10 Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills Fan of St Augustine Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best case: OL gels, DBs cover and EJ progresses. 10-6 Worst case: they don't. 4-12 Likey: Some will, some don't: 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Betting odds are determined by the number of people betting.....particularly with line betting. The book maker endeavors to get the same number of people betting on each side of the line. If the numbers blow out on any particular side they may make a loss(which is not their aim). When the number of people betting is lobsided(to the line), the odds will be adjusted accordingly. In short, the line is determined by the mass gambling populous' perception of expectations. I hate seeing this posted - and it seems to get posted every time someone mentioned a Vegas line. It is something everyone knows. Everyone. And it is ridiculous. Because what doesn't get mentioned is that the expectations of people who are willing to bet money on games are, in general, at least as well informed as the general public. Also professional gamblers and professionals within the gambling institutions are more informed and unbiased when making large bets and setting the lines. Contrast that with the likelihood of bias and hope that a dedicated fan who isn't ponying up any cash except for a jersey and/or seats and you can see how stupid this argument is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSRABILLSFAN Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best case : 8-8 Worst case : 2-14 Likely: 5-11 I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thurst44 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best: 15-1, D gels into dominant force, line and backs continue to generate sacks and interceptions, as Spikes and Schwartz add a run-stopping aspect; meanwhile, a healthy Spiller is unstoppable, rotation with Jackson and Brown lead to one of the most punishing running games in NFL history, Watkins becomes an immediate star and helps aid in EJ & the line's swift maturity as he and Spiller turn short passes into hefty gains. The city and team rally around the team as Pegula makes it official the week the Bills clinch a first-round playoff bye. The plucky, fun-to-watch, nearly-impossible-to-hate Bills are the sweetheart team of the nation as they start their first playoff run in 15 years. Worst: 1-15, Manuel regresses, either becoming too aggressive and racking up INTs or a frustratingly indecisive shell, rarely leading any drives, Spiller is hurt or dancing behind a bad line, Jackson finally shows age, Brown not ready for prime-time, Watkins battling injuries, line young and inconsistent, losses pile up, D is solid, but prone to large gains in both the run and pass as injuries and bad luck abound. I go nowhere near this site as Cleveland ponders its #1 pick from the Bills, and Rogers (without a Bon Jovi who might actually balk at moving the team) is finalizing his surprise purchase of the team, leaving Bills fans even wearier and wondering for what to root. Likely: Somewhere between 10-6 and 6-10, as this team has too much talent on D and so many options at RB, and EJ has been nowhere near as bad as this board would have you believe, but they are also young and there is clearly a lot of chaos on this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Umm, you don't know very much about gamblers, do you... I think that in cases of very big events - like Super Bowls, big fights, World Cup matches - there is a lot of uninformed money bet. But on things like predicted season records you won't find a lot of big bets made by uninformed people. If anything there will be a lot of hopeful fans betting over against larger under bets by the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Best - 8-8 Worst - 3-13 Most likely - 5-11 A subpar, immature offensive coordinator + a young QB who is not taking any steps forward = another long Bills season and the end of the Marrone era. This. My Best case prediction still doesn't include a winning season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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