Football Perspective:You know if a QB can become great after just 2 yr

[yungmack]

What's missing from this analysis is the tremendous importance of the other players to the success of any individual player. In addition, the quality of coaching has to be factored in. Unlike any other major team sport,success in football is enourmously dependent on the talent and scheme of the whole team. We can think of innumerable greats in baseball who have received acclaim while playing on lousy teams because every action in baseball is stand-alone individualistic. This is true to a lesser extent in basketball and even hockey. But a hypothetical "greatest QB ever" will look like bum with a lousy line, incompetent receivers or clueless coaching.

Edited August 12, 2014 by yungmack

[CardinalScotts]

depends where the bar on great is? where is good, where is descent, where is poor

[BigBuff423]

Well you could argue that by looking for a new franchise QB after only two seasons, makes the carousel keep spinning. How exactly do you pull out all stops to find that guy? Likely there are 32 GM's waiting on your answer as they don't know how themselves, other than to rub a rabbits foot and hope you get lucky. (See Tom Brady) Yes there are the Andrew Lucks who come along, but for every Luck there are around three Ryan Leafs out there. That's the problem, there are 32 teams and about a dozen top shelf QB's! With a great team built around him, you can probably get away with someone between #13 and maybe 22. (see Russell Wilson) And two years may or may not be enough to determine if this guy can be another Wilson, depends alot on the team around him. So rather than give up to quickly you'll want to give him every benefit of the doubt first before starting over again.

 

To me the issue is this: the current roster is primed to make a run at the playoffs at nearly every position with just the QB, not diminishing it's weight or value just that it is a singular position, being the real question as to capability and / or promise of future production. So, by *not* scrapping the EJ project after this year, IF he doesn't produce as we all hope he will, then you've got Kyle Williams and Super Mario on the back end of their careers, CJ either at the end of it or traded, walked to another team, FJax who is in the twilight of his career and then a number of others just hitting their stride and still no ostensible value at QB...I can't argue against patience when its patience that ultimately wins the long-term battle BUT, this Franchise is ripe for the plucking as we speak...will they do it? I have no clue...will all other pieces perform as expected this year? I can't say....but what I *DO* know for myself, IMHO, is that based on all other variables, the QB position will almost entirely determine how the BILLS finish this year and probably next year as well...DW is doing a fine job of getting a good, healthy mix of Vets and quality young talent, I would hate to see 2 years of that wasted b/c in the age of productive young QBs, it was determined one project QB needed 3 years to determine if he IS in fact the answer...I'm not advocating for giving up on EJ yet or even at the end of this year, but what I am saying is that the BILLS NEED to know whether EJ is the answer or whether he remains the question. Because for at least *this* year, EJ is most definitely the question.

[PolishDave]

To me the issue is this: the current roster is primed to make a run at the playoffs at nearly every position with just the QB, not diminishing it's weight or value just that it is a singular position, being the real question as to capability and / or promise of future production. So, by *not* scrapping the EJ project after this year, IF he doesn't produce as we all hope he will, then you've got Kyle Williams and Super Mario on the back end of their careers, CJ either at the end of it or traded, walked to another team, FJax who is in the twilight of his career and then a number of others just hitting their stride and still no ostensible value at QB...I can't argue against patience when its patience that ultimately wins the long-term battle BUT, this Franchise is ripe for the plucking as we speak...will they do it? I have no clue...will all other pieces perform as expected this year? I can't say....but what I *DO* know for myself, IMHO, is that based on all other variables, the QB position will almost entirely determine how the BILLS finish this year and probably next year as well...DW is doing a fine job of getting a good, healthy mix of Vets and quality young talent, I would hate to see 2 years of that wasted b/c in the age of productive young QBs, it was determined one project QB needed 3 years to determine if he IS in fact the answer...I'm not advocating for giving up on EJ yet or even at the end of this year, but what I am saying is that the BILLS NEED to know whether EJ is the answer or whether he remains the question. Because for at least *this* year, EJ is most definitely the question.

Good Stuff Big Buff....

 

That was and is my biggest problem with the Bills' QB situation. We have a team that has enough of the pieces in place to make the playoffs. Yet we are essentially gambling that well built scenario by having a QB that we can't confidently EXPECT to play at an average or better level. If EJ plays well in the regular season I would consider us very lucky and I would be unbelievably happy. I don't see how anyone can EXPECT him to play at that level based on what he has shown us thus far. I would expect this "project" to take another couple years if not longer. If it happens sooner it will be a pleasant surprise. If it doesn't look like its going to happen by about 1/2 way through this season then I expect the average fan will be ready to start throwing coaches and QB's off a cliff. And that is a scenario that almost nobody wants.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

All this stat stuff made me want to look at some stat stuff....

 

Does everyone realize our rookie QB was 3-1 at the Ralph with a 90+ passer rating and about 7.4 YPA?

 

If part of growing past a rookie year is learning to be just as consistent on the road, is there any bills fan that would object to that winning percentage over a whole season?

 

Before anyone asserts this is true for all QBs. Look at the splits, it's not.

 

This is irrefutable evidence that EJ can play at a high level. Those impressive averages were Against two playoff team and a defending Super Bowl champ.

 

By allowed QBR, the defenses faced in these situations were ranked 9, 10, 11, and 20

[chris heff]

I don't think you can use statistics or graphs to chart how quickly a QB develops, and its not entirely just about the player.

 

Dan Marino developed very quickly. But then his first season as starter he got together with his two new WR's (Marks Bro's), and spent the entire summer throwing passes to them in preparing for the up coming season. It also helped that his HC was Don Schula who recognized the talent he had in Marino, and went from a run first offense to a total passing offense.

 

My take is how quickly a QB develops, and ultimately how good he becomes is almost entirely dependent on his coaching staff, and his surrounding team. Clearly he needs to have all the physical tools to compete, and the desire to be great.

Over the years I've witnessed so many good QB's with great potential thrown into bad situations and have watched them to never fully develop at all.

 

Archie Manning who went to an inferior NO Saints team, and himself knowing that his sons deserved better then to be drafted by a bad team and then be forced to face an entire career under constant duress, which will never allow a QB to develop properly. I'm entirely convinced that Archie talked Eli into forcing the Chargers to trade him to the NY Giants.

 

 

Jim Plunkett comes to mind as the only beaten down QB that was eventually resurrected, and he went on to achieve success in winning two super bowls. In fact the only NFL QB who started and won two super bowls, and isn't in the HoF.

Before the 71 draft Plunkett was refereed to as the best pro QB prospect ever seen. He won the Heisman trophy in 1970 for Stanford. The Boston Patriots drafted Plunkett #1 overall, and he went to a team that was 2-12 the year before. in 71 Plunkett won UPI AFC rookie of the year.

Needless to say behind a very weak O line Plunkett was pounded on game after game, year after year going (3-11 in 72) (5-9 in 1973) (7-7 in 1974). Along the way the Patriots started building an O line, drafting John Hannah in 73, along with RB Sam "BAM" Cunningham. Then In 1975 the Patriots drafted Steve Grogan. Prior to the 1976 draft the Patriots traded Plunkett to the 49ers where he was able to take serious another beat down behind a bad line.

 

In 1978 Al Davis acquired Plunkett and sat him on the bench for two years while allowing him to recover from all those years of beatings on bad team. He then went on to win two super bowls for the Raiders.

 

Steve Young went to a terribad Tampa bay team in 1985, and sucked for two years on a bad teams. Then went to San Francisco, and sat behind HoF QB Joe Montana for fours years. The rest is super bowls, and HoF under one of the very brightest offensive minds in HC Bill Walsh.

But you haven't multiplied or divided anything.

 

Oh and I forgot "different era".

[Pills -N- Bills]

If that rubber mat never stuck it's neck out and tripped up the ol corn on the kolb I can't imagine how a lot of fans on this board would be looking at the season coming up with ej making his first start in the nfl against the bears.....

[Dibs]

 

 

The author's contention is as follows: if a QB is destined to be great, one of the following will almost certainly be true:

• He will be statistically above-average in either his first or second set of 16 starts. Not necessarily one full standard deviation above average, but above average.
  
• There will be extenuating circumstances (a terrible football team).
  

 

The above represents the only predictive conclusion the author makes in the article. Arguments about any predictive conclusions other than that one are straw man arguments.

 

It appears that you are spot on with that summary. Unfortunately it only states what is somewhat obvious. Essentially if EJ has an above average year this season(above the median....not exactly impressive play), then he will have more of a chance to develop into a franchise QB than if he has a below average year.

 

In the end, one still won't know until after he has either shown himself to be good.....or be a bust. Until that happens, it simply comes down to percentages.

[K-9]

If that rubber mat never stuck it's neck out and tripped up the ol corn on the kolb I can't imagine how a lot of fans on this board would be looking at the season coming up with ej making his first start in the nfl against the bears.....

 

That was the plan but EJ was outplaying Kolb even before/after he slipped on the mat. Would have been a hard sell by the coaches to the vets on the team if they started Kolb given his poor performance.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thewildrabbit]

All this stat stuff made me want to look at some stat stuff....

 

Does everyone realize our rookie QB was 3-1 at the Ralph with a 90+ passer rating and about 7.4 YPA?

 

If part of growing past a rookie year is learning to be just as consistent on the road, is there any bills fan that would object to that winning percentage over a whole season?

 

Before anyone asserts this is true for all QBs. Look at the splits, it's not.

 

This is irrefutable evidence that EJ can play at a high level. Those impressive averages were Against two playoff team and a defending Super Bowl champ.

 

By allowed QBR, the defenses faced in these situations were ranked 9, 10, 11, and 20

Not just how good the team played at home. It was how bad the Bills O line played on the road vs those home games, and against teams with bad records.

 

That first Jets game in week 3 the Jets had 8 sacks on EJ, and Spiller had 10 rushes for 9 yards! That NY D line dominated the Bills line. Then go to the (3-6) Steelers, (4-9) Bucs games on the road and the same thing, as that Bills line was dominated badly. Only 3 sacks by Pitt but they kept they Bills run & pass game in check. That Steeler game went exactly like this, FG, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, INT, punt, TD. The Bills only TD came with 05 seconds left in the game. The Bucs had 7 sacks, and Spiller 11 rushes for 22 yards. Those road games were embarrassing to watch.

 

Hence the reason GM Doug Whaley drafted 3 O linemen, and brought in another OG in free agency. So, do those modern charts, graphs figure in the team around the QB?

[YoloinOhio]

That was the plan but EJ was outplaying Kolb even before/after he slipped on the mat. Would have been a hard sell by the coaches to the vets on the team if they started Kolb given his poor performance.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Yep from what I recall, EJ was winning the job anyway before Kolb got hurt. The difference likely would have been that instead of Thad and Tuel for those 6 games he was hurt, we would have had Kolb. No idea how that would have gone.

[billsfan1959]

To me the issue is this: the current roster is primed to make a run at the playoffs at nearly every position with just the QB, not diminishing it's weight or value just that it is a singular position, being the real question as to capability and / or promise of future production. So, by *not* scrapping the EJ project after this year, IF he doesn't produce as we all hope he will, then you've got Kyle Williams and Super Mario on the back end of their careers, CJ either at the end of it or traded, walked to another team, FJax who is in the twilight of his career and then a number of others just hitting their stride and still no ostensible value at QB...I can't argue against patience when its patience that ultimately wins the long-term battle BUT, this Franchise is ripe for the plucking as we speak...will they do it? I have no clue...will all other pieces perform as expected this year? I can't say....but what I *DO* know for myself, IMHO, is that based on all other variables, the QB position will almost entirely determine how the BILLS finish this year and probably next year as well...DW is doing a fine job of getting a good, healthy mix of Vets and quality young talent, I would hate to see 2 years of that wasted b/c in the age of productive young QBs, it was determined one project QB needed 3 years to determine if he IS in fact the answer...I'm not advocating for giving up on EJ yet or even at the end of this year, but what I am saying is that the BILLS NEED to know whether EJ is the answer or whether he remains the question. Because for at least *this* year, EJ is most definitely the question.

Good Stuff Big Buff....

 

That was and is my biggest problem with the Bills' QB situation. We have a team that has enough of the pieces in place to make the playoffs. Yet we are essentially gambling that well built scenario by having a QB that we can't confidently EXPECT to play at an average or better level. If EJ plays well in the regular season I would consider us very lucky and I would be unbelievably happy. I don't see how anyone can EXPECT him to play at that level based on what he has shown us thus far. I would expect this "project" to take another couple years if not longer. If it happens sooner it will be a pleasant surprise. If it doesn't look like its going to happen by about 1/2 way through this season then I expect the average fan will be ready to start throwing coaches and QB's off a cliff. And that is a scenario that almost nobody wants.

 

1. We have no way of knowing at this point how good EJ is going to be. Last year was a brand new offensive system with brand new coaches. EJ missed considerable time due to injuries and when he did play, he played behind a line that had severely regressed from the year before - not to mention genuine injury issues at wide receiver and running back. To make any conclusive judgments, one way or the other, from last year is nothing short of foolish speculation. If he stays healthy this year and the O-line plays at a higher level than they did last year, then we should have a pretty good idea of the trajectory EJ will be on in regard to being a quality NFL starting QB. Why is this such an outlandish idea to some on this board?

 

2. Just who are these available QBs out there to lead this team NOW...and how are you so certain they would be effective in leading this team deep into the playoffs. There is a lot of talk on this board about how a good QB (accepting, for the sake of argument, that EJ is not that QB) would make this team a sure bet playoff contender (and possibly more). I would just like to know who he is and how the team acquires him? We all have an opinion on our QB situation and the truth is that not a single one of us has any idea how good or bad EJ will be. However, for those who are on the side of the QB situation being anything from "questionable" to "all of them suck," please offer who you believe would be much more likely to lead this team to the playoffs than EJ.

Edited August 12, 2014 by billsfan1959

[BigBuff423]

 

 

 

1. We have no way of knowing at this point how good EJ is going to be. Last year was a brand new offensive system with brand new coaches. EJ missed considerable time due to injuries and when he did play, he played behind a line that had severely regressed from the year before - not to mention genuine injury issues at wide receiver and running back. To make any conclusive judgments, one way or the other, from last year is nothing short of foolish speculation. If he stays healthy this year and the O-line plays at a higher level than they did last year, then we should have a pretty good idea of the trajectory EJ will be on in regard to being a quality NFL starting QB. Why is this such an outlandish idea to some on this board?

 

2. Just who are these available QBs out there to lead this team NOW...and how are you so certain they would be effective in leading this team deep into the playoffs. There is a lot of talk on this board about how a good QB (accepting, for the sake of argument, that EJ is not that QB) would make this team a sure bet playoff contender (and possibly more). I would just like to know who he is and how the team acquires him? We all have an opinion on our QB situation and the truth is that not a single one of us has any idea how good or bad EJ will be. However, for those who are on the side of the QB situation being anything from "questionable" to "all of them suck," please offer who you believe would be much more likely to lead this team to the playoffs than EJ.

 

To your very first sentence: that is exactly my point. The BILLS, and by extension us as fans, have no idea how good or bad EJ will be...I won't rehash everything I said and only politely ask you to re-read my post as apparently we are on the same page, but for some reason I get the feeling you think we have counter arguments about how to handle the QB situation. Maybe we do and I've misunderstood your statements...either way, give EJ this season to prove he's the QB of the future or go get the one that will be next Off Season via trade, Draft, FA, etc....JMO

[Johnny Hammersticks]

So, we can officially say that Ryan Tannehill sucks?

[PromoTheRobot]

Bahhh! We know after one OTA.

[Thurman#1]

How Long Does It Take Great Quarterbacks To Break out?

 

http://www.footballp...s-to-break-out/

 

If a quarterback has a chance to be a star, chances are it will become apparent within two seasons. Chase Stuart of Football Perspective looked at how long it took star quarterbacks to become great, examining the top 42 quarterbacks since the merger and compared how each quarterback performed (measured by adjusted net yards per attempt) relative to the league average during their career.

 

 

He's NOT talking about seasons, as you claim.

 

He's talking about games played. Lists Kurt Warner in his group of fourteen guys who "can be categorized as above-average quarterbacks from the beginning.". And Romo. And Philip Rivers. And Ken Stabler (two games started in his first three years). And has Aaron Rodgers falling just short.

 

but what I am saying is that the BILLS NEED to know whether EJ is the answer or whether he remains the question. Because for at least *this* year, EJ is most definitely the question.

 

 

They do need to know whether he's the answer. Unfortunately, whether or not you need to know something usually has no weight whatsoever on whether there's enough data already available to make it reasonable to draw an accurate conclusion.

 

> So, based on their first two years of play, Brady, Favre, and Kelly were much more likely to be Mark Sanchez.

 

The text you quoted referred to whether a QB's play was one full standard deviation above the NFL average. It's possible for a QB to be above average, while being less than one full standard deviation above average.

 

The author's contention is as follows: if a QB is destined to be great, one of the following will almost certainly be true:

• He will be statistically above-average in either his first or second set of 16 starts. Not necessarily one full standard deviation above average, but above average.
  
• There will be extenuating circumstances (a terrible football team).
  

The above represents the only predictive conclusion the author makes in the article. Arguments about any predictive conclusions other than that one are straw man arguments.

 

 

 

Nicely put.

 

So if you assume that his method worked 100% of the time - something he absolutely does NOT claim - and throw out guys who hadn't been above average at his metric during their first 32 games played, you'd be throwing out guys like Brees, Elway, Bradshaw, Favre, Moon, Gannon, Kelly and Brady ... and a bunch of others.

[hondo in seattle]

There may be identifiable statistical patterns but there are no absolute rules in the projection of QB maturation.

 

Jim Plunkett had five forgettable years in New England. He was equally mediocre in San Francisco for a couple years. Then he labored on as a backup for the Raiders for a couple more. Surely this guy was destined to be a career journeyman.

 

Then in his 30s, Plunkett finally blossomed, putting up the best stats of his career and leading the Raiders to two Super Bowl wins.

 

No statistician or football analytics guy could have looked at Plunkett in his 20s and predicted Plunkett's performance in his 30s. Football science will always be inexact. Players improve at different rates. And some players just need the right coach to get the best out of them.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

Good Stuff Big Buff....

 

That was and is my biggest problem with the Bills' QB situation. We have a team that has enough of the pieces in place to make the playoffs. Yet we are essentially gambling that well built scenario by having a QB that we can't confidently EXPECT to play at an average or better level. If EJ plays well in the regular season I would consider us very lucky and I would be unbelievably happy. I don't see how anyone can EXPECT him to play at that level based on what he has shown us thus far. I would expect this "project" to take another couple years if not longer. If it happens sooner it will be a pleasant surprise. If it doesn't look like its going to happen by about 1/2 way through this season then I expect the average fan will be ready to start throwing coaches and QB's off a cliff. And that is a scenario that almost nobody wants.

You act like the Bills are the only team gambling at QB. Like it was said earlier, elite QB talent is hard to find. There are just a handful of elite QBs so the Bills not having one is not a choice made by management. It's not Ralph being cheap or Whaley being stupid. With rare exception every QB drafted is a project and a gamble.

[Orton's Arm]

He's NOT talking about seasons, as you claim.

 

He's talking about games played. Lists Kurt Warner in his group of fourteen guys who "can be categorized as above-average quarterbacks from the beginning.". And Romo. And Philip Rivers. And Ken Stabler (two games started in his first three years). And has Aaron Rodgers falling just short.

 

 

 

 

They do need to know whether he's the answer. Unfortunately, whether or not you need to know something usually has no weight whatsoever on whether there's enough data already available to make it reasonable to draw an accurate conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

Nicely put.

 

So if you assume that his method worked 100% of the time - something he absolutely does NOT claim - and throw out guys who hadn't been above average at his metric during their first 32 games played, you'd be throwing out guys like Brees, Elway, Bradshaw, Favre, Moon, Gannon, Kelly and Brady ... and a bunch of others.

 

> Nicely put.

 

Thank you.

 

> you'd be throwing out guys like Brees, Elway, Bradshaw, Favre, Moon, Gannon, Kelly and Brady ... and a bunch of others.

 

That depends on how you use the author's conclusions. All the QBs you mentioned had failed to produce significantly above average results during their first or second set of 16 starts. (By "significantly above average" the author means results more than one full standard deviation above the NFL mean.) But all the QBs on the above list--except Brees--still produced above average results during the first or second set of 16 starts. Less than 1 full standard deviation above-average, but still above average. From the article:

 

*********

Other than Aikman/Testaverde/Bradshaw — and I think they deserve to be in their own group — that leaves just Drew Brees as the only quarterback in our sample to be below average through both his first and second set of sixteen starts.

***********

 

Aikman, Testaverde, Bradshaw, and Brees were each chosen by the team with the worst record in the league; and with the first overall pick of the draft. (Brees was chosen with the first pick of the second round, the other three were first overall picks.) It's very difficult for a QB to put up good stats when he's on a terrible team.

 

Assuming the patterns described in the article hold true, a QB who isn't chosen by an absolutely terrible team should put up above-average stats in either his first or second set of 16 starts. If he doesn't, it's extremely unlikely he's destined for greatness. "Not destined for greatness" doesn't necessarily mean "complete bust." A non-great QB might still turn out to be the next Ryan Fitzpatrick or Neill O'Donnell. Which isn't ideal, but is better than nothing.

[BUFFALOKIE]

I don't think you can use statistics or graphs to chart how quickly a QB develops, and its not entirely just about the player.

 

Dan Marino developed very quickly. But then his first season as starter he got together with his two new WR's (Marks Bro's), and spent the entire summer throwing passes to them in preparing for the up coming season. It also helped that his HC was Don Schula who recognized the talent he had in Marino, and went from a run first offense to a total passing offense.

 

My take is how quickly a QB develops, and ultimately how good he becomes is almost entirely dependent on his coaching staff, and his surrounding team. Clearly he needs to have all the physical tools to compete, and the desire to be great.

Over the years I've witnessed so many good QB's with great potential thrown into bad situations and have watched them to never fully develop at all.

 

Archie Manning who went to an inferior NO Saints team, and himself knowing that his sons deserved better then to be drafted by a bad team and then be forced to face an entire career under constant duress, which will never allow a QB to develop properly. I'm entirely convinced that Archie talked Eli into forcing the Chargers to trade him to the NY Giants.

 

 

Jim Plunkett comes to mind as the only beaten down QB that was eventually resurrected, and he went on to achieve success in winning two super bowls. In fact the only NFL QB who started and won two super bowls, and isn't in the HoF.

Before the 71 draft Plunkett was refereed to as the best pro QB prospect ever seen. He won the Heisman trophy in 1970 for Stanford. The Boston Patriots drafted Plunkett #1 overall, and he went to a team that was 2-12 the year before. in 71 Plunkett won UPI AFC rookie of the year.

Needless to say behind a very weak O line Plunkett was pounded on game after game, year after year going (3-11 in 72) (5-9 in 1973) (7-7 in 1974). Along the way the Patriots started building an O line, drafting John Hannah in 73, along with RB Sam "BAM" Cunningham. Then In 1975 the Patriots drafted Steve Grogan. Prior to the 1976 draft the Patriots traded Plunkett to the 49ers where he was able to take serious another beat down behind a bad line.

 

In 1978 Al Davis acquired Plunkett and sat him on the bench for two years while allowing him to recover from all those years of beatings on bad team. He then went on to win two super bowls for the Raiders.

 

Steve Young went to a terribad Tampa bay team in 1985, and sucked for two years on a bad teams. Then went to San Francisco, and sat behind HoF QB Joe Montana for fours years. The rest is super bowls, and HoF under one of the very brightest offensive minds in HC Bill Walsh.

 

Very nice post. Good thread.