Jim Schwartz and analytics

[Hazed and Amuzed]

I posted this article in thread a few days ago and I think it's a good read. So I wanted to start a topic on it to discuss this guy. Frankly the hire initially scared me and reminded me of Wandstadt. Then I heard a lot of the buzzword "fits" and I got a little more nervous, so I did some research and found this. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/sports/football/23titans.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

 

I guess it makes sense why this regime chose coach Schwartz knowing the value they put on analytics. Just curious if this read makes anyone feel better or worse about the guy. I like what I'm hearing out of OTAs but until I see them on the field I feel cautious. There's a lot of talent on this D, this is not the season to experiment IMO. I'm a little more optimistic after reading this.

[NoSaint]

Id say go back and read the thread when he was hired (don't mean that snarky)..... It discussed this but also had a lot of other info good and bad too. I even pulled a bunch of quotes from old titans message boards.

 

Really the question will be whether he A) gets the numbers right B) follows them even when they go outside his favored scheme C) can get the execution he wants, as he also notes unlike chess - a player doesn't always get where you want him to end up

 

Simply being interested in data doesn't mean he's GREAT with data. I think its a positive that he's willing to push the envelope there compared to a lot of guys- but I'm not sure if his results, outside of 1-2 years, have ever lived up to the positivity of that article.

 

He will be an interesting one to watch.

Edited June 6, 2014 by NoSaint

[Hazed and Amuzed]

Id say go back and read the thread when he was hired (don't mean that snarky)..... It discussed this but also had a lot of other info good and bad too. I even pulled a bunch of quotes from old titans message boards.

 

Really the question will be whether he A) gets the numbers right B) follows them even when they go outside his favored scheme C) can get the execution he wants, as he also notes unlike chess - a player doesn't always get where you want him to end up

 

Simply being interested in data doesn't mean he's GREAT with data. I think its a positive that he's willing to push the envelope there compared to a lot of guys- but I'm not sure if his results, outside of 1-2 years, have ever lived up to the positivity of that article.

 

He will be an interesting one to watch.

 

I don't take this as snarky, I appreciate the response. I enjoy reading your insight and you have more X&O knowledge than I. So I do differ to you as well as others on this board. Let me ask you this, do you think being a HC and experiencing a broader view of how to operate a team may change how he views analytics and the impact they have on the game? Football doesn't equal baseball when it comes to stats, there are too many variables but the fact that he may have been a bit ahead of the curve and refined his approach may impact things like where and when these analytics are actually vital. Seems like he may be able to teach Marrone a thing or two, OR he's just hapless and it may potentiate a failing idea that stats are paramount in game planning and adjusting.

 

Just looking for some different off season discussion other than Watkins, Dareus, EJ or the regular whining.

[hondo in seattle]

H&A, good find - that was better than the average football article. Favorite quotes from the article include:

 

"The Titans are defined by multitalented players who are effective in different styles. The Titans used eight-man fronts to stop Jacksonville’s running game in the season opener, then played a cover-2 defense to thwart Cincinnati’s passing the next week."

 

Pettine is sometimes described as a mad scientist who's always trying something new & unexpected while Schwartz is supposedly a conventional 4-3 guy. In fact, Schwartz may be more creative than some people give him crediit for.

 

This is encouraging too:

 

"Belichick regards Schwartz as one of the smartest coaches he has been around."

 

There is one finding from statistics that worries me: "the best predictor of future success is past success." Schwartz's track record as a DC is hardly unblemished. I agree with NoSaint, it's going to be interesting to watch what Schwartz does with the talent he's been given.

[NoSaint]

 

 

I don't take this as snarky, I appreciate the response. I enjoy reading your insight and you have more X&O knowledge than I. So I do differ to you as well as others on this board. Let me ask you this, do you think being a HC and experiencing a broader view of how to operate a team may change how he views analytics and the impact they have on the game? Football doesn't equal baseball when it comes to stats, there are too many variables but the fact that he may have been a bit ahead of the curve and refined his approach may impact things like where and when these analytics are actually vital. Seems like he may be able to teach Marrone a thing or two, OR he's just hapless and it may potentiate a failing idea that stats are paramount in game planning and adjusting.

 

Just looking for some different off season discussion other than Watkins, Dareus, EJ or the regular whining.

 

its a mixed bag - im hopeful, but i have a feeling that a lot of the board will be frustrated because expectations are so high (early it was about how aggressive he is, now its more focused on his run defense).... thing is we really dont know what he will do yet. It seems a lot of the arguments can cut both ways with him.... but i do believe this is the most talented group he has coached, and he has had great success with great talent.

 

an example of the back and forth that we might get into -- "hes strong against the run"

 

but its a cumulative ranking skewed by lack of attampts - on a per carry basis he was actually pretty average (even below at times)

 

but ive seen schwartz directly in interviews talk about his lower rankings in YPC being that hes very willing to give up rush yards when playing with a lead, or in 3rd and long situations so that skews his rank

 

but doesnt everyone have that same argument to a degree, or does he do it in a more "analytical" way than others leading to better results despite the ranking issues

 

 

 

a lot of the quotes i found on old message boards were complaining that he was too vanilla, and boring (but that was a fan base coming off of gregg williams "exotic blitz schemes") - and thats not always a bad thing if you have the talent. as frustrating as wannstedt was i try to remember that he had an injured mario, KW was out quick, MD was dealing with his losses, and Mark anderson turned into a huge flop..... its a scheme totally dependent on the front 4 and i dont know that we ever had more than 2 going full speed at the same time (mario and MD late in the year maybe?). some of those more basic 43s have done really well when the front 4 can get there (spags in NY, some of the tampa 2 or wide 9 schemes have been good at times and schwartzs defenses).... but much like schwartzs defenses a lot of them swing widely with their results based on the talent of the front 4. ill echo again though, that we have the talent. i also think his experience will add perspective and create better discussion in the game planning meetings.

Edited June 6, 2014 by NoSaint

[nucci]

Still not getting all these comments and posts comparing Schwartz to Wannstedt. Where does this come from? Are they related, coached together......what?

[NoSaint]

Still not getting all these comments and posts comparing Schwartz to Wannstedt. Where does this come from? Are they related, coached together......what?

 

they run 43 schemes that rely on the front 4 to get pressure and are known not to blitz often.... and are bills d coordinators only separated by a few years. there are expected to be some natural comparison points that would exist on a bills message board discussing schwartz, even if it wouldnt be used elsewhere as often (if at all)

Edited June 6, 2014 by NoSaint

[C.Biscuit97]

The Bills have one of the most talented defenses in the entire NFL. The roster is littered with 1st and 2nd round picks. It is set up for a coach to have success. If this isn't a top 10 defense, it's bad coaching. Pettine did a good job here but he knew it was a great situation. If Schwartz can't succeed with this group, he doesn't have a prayer of ever being a head coach again.

[John from Riverside]

I was going back at some game tape from last year and I swear I would see Marrone glaring at Pettine at times (it was usually when we just couldnt stop a team from running on us).......boat loads of QB pressure....but if the QB was handling it and the OL was picking up the pressure bad things were happening.

 

I wonder if Marrone has plainly stated he wants a defense that stops the run.....period......

[NoSaint]

I was going back at some game tape from last year and I swear I would see Marrone glaring at Pettine at times (it was usually when we just couldnt stop a team from running on us).......boat loads of QB pressure....but if the QB was handling it and the OL was picking up the pressure bad things were happening.

 

I wonder if Marrone has plainly stated he wants a defense that stops the run.....period......

 

i know its the current talking point on him so i was curious if you (or anyone else) had some input on the basic starter arguments, pro and con, i had above for the run stopping discussion?

[Ronin]

I posted this article in thread a few days ago and I think it's a good read. So I wanted to start a topic on it to discuss this guy. Frankly the hire initially scared me and reminded me of Wandstadt. Then I heard a lot of the buzzword "fits" and I got a little more nervous, so I did some research and found this. http://www.nytimes.c...wanted=all&_r=0

 

I guess it makes sense why this regime chose coach Schwartz knowing the value they put on analytics. Just curious if this read makes anyone feel better or worse about the guy. I like what I'm hearing out of OTAs but until I see them on the field I feel cautious. There's a lot of talent on this D, this is not the season to experiment IMO. I'm a little more optimistic after reading this.

 

Analytics/metrics are only as good as those doing the analyzing.

 

They can be employed during the draft process too but we rarely use them properly there.

 

Until this staff proves that it has a clue in that department who cares. Gailey and his crew talked about metrics too, look how that ended up.

 

Still not getting all these comments and posts comparing Schwartz to Wannstedt. Where does this come from? Are they related, coached together......what?

 

Good weed.

 

Simply being interested in data doesn't mean he's GREAT with data. I think its a positive that he's willing to push the envelope there compared to a lot of guys- but I'm not sure if his results, outside of 1-2 years, have ever lived up to the positivity of that article.

 

A+ comment

 

Let me ask you this, do you think being a HC and experiencing a broader view of how to operate a team may change how he views analytics and the impact they have on the game?

 

I'll pitch in my unsolicited two cents.

 

Short answer: No

 

People are either analytical by nature or they are not. One cannot learn how to analyze at a level that's going to gain them a competitive advantage in a situation like this. They can pay to have data manufactured or extracted, but what one does with it is up to that person or team. Gailey and his crew talked about metrics too, but look at the results there.

 

Schwartz is no longer the coach in Detroit for a reason. Same for the QB coach that he dragged with him that everyone's pinned their hopes on. He was essentially fired for having Stafford regress. Manuel is no Stafford.

 

Belicheat is an analytical coach and he has his silent side kick Ernie Adams who's an analytical genius.

 

I don't think that our staff is blessed as such.

[chris heff]

I'm optimistic about Schwartz, but while reading that article, the first thing that came to mind was, fumbles may be random, but only the Bills fumble twice on game winning drives in the same game.

[John from Riverside]

Saint,

 

If I have missed some of your points reading through I apologize.....regarding run stop.

 

This is the thing and as simplistic as I make it sound its still about execution and players winning their battles but

 

Run stop is all about containment in your areas of responsibility.......

 

- When we ran the 4-3 with wanny......we had the horses up front to do this but the LB's were not great.....you can have the DL winning their battles but if LB's cannot stack and shed tackles.....eventually containment somewhere is gonna give way.

 

Personally? I think Marrone (and schwartz) get it......its a 3 waved process

 

- DL winning at the LOS

- LB's playing disciplined....not getting stalemated and moved out of the way when offensive blockers make it to the second level.....filling all all gaps so that their holes in the defense.......stacking and shedding lead blockers.....slowing things down....mucking things up.......then "numbers to the ball" without breaking contain their their own areas of responsiblity

 

Then the 3rd wave.....safeties who play disciplined and move to the ball.....if you get past wave 1.....your not gonna get past wave 2....if you get past wave 2....there is NO WAY your getting past wave 3.

 

Just bear with me on this next point

 

Even the most disciplined run team will give up on the run if they start falling behind because they are 3 and out every play AND the offense of the other team is scoring.......this is where offense helps defense here. When a team goes up by multiple scores......the other team feels pressured to try to make a play to stay in the game......so we NEED OUR OFFENSE TO SCORE

 

Defense helps offense by getting them the ball.....offense helps defense by making the opposing offense force to take more chances and become more one dimensional

 

back on point about run defense......its about not having breakdowns in areas of responsibility and winning your positional battles.......what good does it do to have a gap penetrating dominate DL when they OL just intentionally release so they can get to the 2nd level and get bodies on the linebackers?

 

Steps were taken this year to have those players in the right spots......not only is this team rich in starting talent but depth is greatly improved......why did we take a MLB in the third round? THATS why.

[jr1]

I'm more worried about EJ's knees than Schwartz's schemes

[TPS]

The Bills have one of the most talented defenses in the entire NFL. The roster is littered with 1st and 2nd round picks. It is set up for a coach to have success. If this isn't a top 10 defense, it's bad coaching. Pettine did a good job here but he knew it was a great situation. If Schwartz can't succeed with this group, he doesn't have a prayer of ever being a head coach again.

while they have a lot of talent, of the DTs who would you consider a run stuffer?

Their starters are attacking, penetrating, not the types who take up blockers. The lack of run-stuffing DTs means they need other positions to compensate, hence the need for spikes and rivers.

To your point though, since they have that additional talent this year, yes, Schwartz ought to get this D into the top 10.

[NoSaint]

while they have a lot of talent, of the DTs who would you consider a run stuffer?

Their starters are attacking, penetrating, not the types who take up blockers. The lack of run-stuffing DTs means they need other positions to compensate, hence the need for spikes and rivers.

To your point though, since they have that additional talent this year, yes, Schwartz ought to get this D into the top 10.

 

as that is precisely what schwartz has asked guys like suh, fairley, and haynesworth to do and designed his scheme around - thats a good thing. he sends his front 4 after the qb and lets the MLB cleanup the run game like a NT would in other schemes.

 

our personnel is pretty good for what hes done in the past. what hes done in the past may not be what most posters picture though.

[Mr. WEO]

What's the evidence the Bills place a high value on analytics. We joke about it here, but how would we know if and how they use "analytics"?

[richNjoisy]

The thing that drove me crazy about the "great" Bills defense last year was the number of HUGE run gainers (sometimes for long TD runs) that the defense gave up. Correct me if I am wrong, but it is my understanding that most games are won or lost on the number of huge plays given up (particularly scoring plays). Quite often, last year's defense would stop run after run for little gain and then suddenly....a huge gainer (often right up the middle).

 

It seemed to me that this was the case of a player (or players) out of position at a critical moment (or place). I heard a lot about that person being Kiko. I have not studied the film like some on these Board (I only keep the wins and erase the losses).

 

So my CONJECTURE is that the Bills move of Kiko to the outside is one step to reducing the big run gainers. The second step should be to

make sure the "new Schwartz" defense gives up fewer huge gainers. So, is this a Schwartz specialty? I realize it is the players that make the plays, guys but cannot the scheme make one more or less vulnerable to the big gainer? Anyone have nay clue as to how Schwartz' defenses rate in this stat?

[TPS]

 

 

as that is precisely what schwartz has asked guys like suh, fairley, and haynesworth to do and designed his scheme around - thats a good thing. he sends his front 4 after the qb and lets the MLB cleanup the run game like a NT would in other schemes.

 

our personnel is pretty good for what hes done in the past. what hes done in the past may not be what most posters picture though.

they certainly have the personnel for a top 10 D now. My biggest concern is the second safety spot. They will need better than just average play at that position.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Still not getting all these comments and posts comparing Schwartz to Wannstedt. Where does this come from? Are they related, coached together......what?

 

Facial hair? Head coached a team... Uses defense-y sounding words.