Breaking down EJ's incomplete passes in 2013

[YoloinOhio]

WRT that, I like and agree with what Sammy Watkins said, which is: "My job is to catch the ball. I can't control where the quarterback throws it. If my hand touches it, I've got to catch it."

Mike Williams said something similar when he was signed. I just literally did the sign of the cross. Please let this team make the playoffs!

[PromoTheRobot]

It would be nice to know how EJ's stats compare to other QBs. It's tough to glean anything from them on their own.

 

I was just going to say the same thing. Every QB has passes dropped by his WRs. The question is did the Bills have a worse problem than average? A commenter also asked how many pass plays did EJ get pressured due to protection breakdowns...and again, is it worse than average?

[Just in Atlanta]

Can we leave it at I personally think 6.9 percent is decent considering the QB situation and injuries, and that I personally think he's a good WR, and that I personally will miss him as a fan?

[Cash]

I like the post overall, but the author is being very generous to EJ by calling Chandler's non-catch against the Ravens Chandler's fault. I recall marveling at the amazing body control Chandler had to catch a ball that was heading well out of bounds, only to be completely dashed when I saw on the replay how his left foot never actually touched down. And I hate to defend TJ Graham ever at all, but I have a feeling 1 or 2 of the 5 "receiver's fault" incompletions attributed to Graham were borderline uncatchable deep balls out of bounds. I definitely remember a number of deep sideline throws to Graham that weren't atrocious, and maybe someone like Megatron or Brandon Marshall could've brought in and tapped their toes, but Graham caught with zero feet in bounds. Granted, Graham sucks at that type of catch, but I still don't think it's fair to classify those throws as "on-target". A better, more accurate throw still leaves the defender no chance at the ball, but gives the receiver a much better opportunity at making the catch.

[The Big Cat]

Can we leave it at I personally think 6.9 percent is decent considering the QB situation and injuries, and that I personally think he's a good WR, and that I personally will miss him as a fan?

 

Fine. But if you think 6.9 is decent, then what do you call Woods' 1.2?

[YoloinOhio]

Can we leave it at I personally think 6.9 percent is decent considering the QB situation and injuries, and that I personally think he's a good WR, and that I personally will miss him as a fan?

Obviously!

[The Big Cat]

And of course you're welcome to think whatever you like. But 6.9, based on the data you provided, is not decent. And it's certainly no indication that Stevie will be missed (your words).

 

And of course you're entitled to miss cheering for the guy.

 

I remember the week and a half I spent missing Marcuth'th Mailbag.

[offsides#76FredSmerlas]

I think our wide outs will prove to be a solid group but mark me down as a fan who will miss SJ. I haven't gone online to analyze stats but when you are a receiver that had three (1 thousand yard) seasons you are a productive player. SJ may have dropped some balls in his career but I'm guessing that he by far had more balls thrown to him than any other player because SJ gets open. He has been targeted quite a bit in his time as a starter and has been a big 3rd down guy who moved the chains. I think SJ is getting bashed pretty hard when no other receiver on our roster has done what he has accomplished as a Bills receiver. There's a reason why he was Fitzpatricks #1 guy and it was partly because we didn't have much for receivers. I don't think SJ is a #1 guy but he is a solid #2 and he was a highly productive player for the Bills. He didn't meet expectations in 2014 but we had a revolving door at QB, SJ was injured, and he went through some tough personal issues. Give the guy a break...

Edited May 29, 2014 by offsides#76FredSmerlas

[maryland-bills-fan]

There were a lot of long sideline routes that were thrown out of bounds. I think many of these should be put into one of the following categories:

 

1. Long sideline pass thrown out of bounds or barely catchable as a safe means of stretching the field for the defense & safety in order to get more space for the running game. and

 

2. Long sideline pass " " as a throw away when the first 2-3 in the progression were covered. There is always the chance of a blown assignment, trip or pass interference.

 

 

One "weapon" we had last year was 2 very track speed type guys. Running a lot of fly sideline patterns will tire out the CB's and almost always the safety will want to be on top of that. So one WR takes two defenders out of the play as surely as if he blocked them to the ground.

[chris heff]

My biggest issue with EJ is that he seems to be very mechanical in his play and not instinctive. I know that sounds vague, but I get the impression watching him last year that he tends to be almost robotic, I'm not sure if that is because he was unsure of himself, hesitant or simply rookie nerves. I love his arm strength, mobility and I think he has a quick delivery. Instincts and accuracy are the two areas I plan to watch closely to see if there is improvement.

I always felt he was aiming the ball and I blame coaching. He is a different player in two minute drill, because he plays instinctively.

[papazoid]

EJ was ranked between 25-30th best at both Passer Rating & Total QBR.

 

that ain't good enough. I like EJ, but he is NOT going to be a Franchise QB (top 15)......(IMO for those who don't like to hear it).

[The Big Cat]

EJ was ranked between 25-30th best at both Passer Rating & Total QBR.

 

that ain't good enough. I like EJ, but he is NOT going to be a Franchise QB (top 15)......(IMO for those who don't like to hear it).

 

I think this is the first time you've shared this opinion.

[Captain Hindsight]

Can we leave it at I personally think 6.9 percent is decent considering the QB situation and injuries, and that I personally think he's a good WR, and that I personally will miss him as a fan?

That means he catches 3 out 10. Thats awful

 

EJ was ranked between 25-30th best at both Passer Rating & Total QBR.

 

that ain't good enough. I like EJ, but he is NOT going to be a Franchise QB (top 15)......(IMO for those who don't like to hear it).

I hope you are wrong. I saw plenty of correctable things last year that I hope EJ will improve on

[YoloinOhio]

EJ was ranked between 25-30th best at both Passer Rating & Total QBR.

 

that ain't good enough. I like EJ, but he is NOT going to be a Franchise QB (top 15)......(IMO for those who don't like to hear it).

I assume the list included any QB who played in the reg season? The list would be skewed based on sample size. But even if not, no, it wasn't good enough. I think we all agree on that. But IMO it was his rookie year mixed in with other factors that have been hashed and re-hashed, but IMO I can't project from last year to say he will never be good enough to be a franchise QB or in the top half of the league as you qualified it. Of course it wasn't good enough, but Joe Flacco was 24th in total reg season QBR the year he won the SB, and Andrew Luck was 26th in Passer Rating his rookie season, so not sure those are the greatest measurements of determining future success. Edited May 29, 2014 by YoloinOhio

[Cash]

There were a lot of long sideline routes that were thrown out of bounds. I think many of these should be put into one of the following categories:

 

1. Long sideline pass thrown out of bounds or barely catchable as a safe means of stretching the field for the defense & safety in order to get more space for the running game. and

 

2. Long sideline pass " " as a throw away when the first 2-3 in the progression were covered. There is always the chance of a blown assignment, trip or pass interference.

 

 

One "weapon" we had last year was 2 very track speed type guys. Running a lot of fly sideline patterns will tire out the CB's and almost always the safety will want to be on top of that. So one WR takes two defenders out of the play as surely as if he blocked them to the ground.

 

If throwing deep passes out of bounds to track stars is so helpful, why did our offense stink last year? I don't think defenses have a lot of respect for the deep ball until you actually complete a few.

Edited May 30, 2014 by Cash

[Orton's Arm]

I like the post overall, but the author is being very generous to EJ by calling Chandler's non-catch against the Ravens Chandler's fault. I recall marveling at the amazing body control Chandler had to catch a ball that was heading well out of bounds, only to be completely dashed when I saw on the replay how his left foot never actually touched down. And I hate to defend TJ Graham ever at all, but I have a feeling 1 or 2 of the 5 "receiver's fault" incompletions attributed to Graham were borderline uncatchable deep balls out of bounds. I definitely remember a number of deep sideline throws to Graham that weren't atrocious, and maybe someone like Megatron or Brandon Marshall could've brought in and tapped their toes, but Graham caught with zero feet in bounds. Granted, Graham sucks at that type of catch, but I still don't think it's fair to classify those throws as "on-target". A better, more accurate throw still leaves the defender no chance at the ball, but gives the receiver a much better opportunity at making the catch.

 

The author's computed drop rate for Bills' receivers is higher than I've seen from other sources. He definitely erred on the side of blaming the receiver while giving the benefit of the doubt to EJ.

[YoloinOhio]

The author's computed drop rate for Bills' receivers is higher than I've seen from other sources. He definitely erred on the side of blaming the receiver while giving the benefit of the doubt to EJ.

Or did the other sources err the other way...possible?

[Dorkington]

I love that an injury plagued year, with sketchy WRs and OL, and rookie coaches.... is enough to tell if EJ sucks or not.

 

I'm giving him three years to prove his worth, I imagine the coaches and front office are too.

[FLFan]

SJ's completion percentage is average. Some fans have a selective memory due to high profile drops. And there are other players on the Bills (Choice, Graham) with higher drop rates. Losing SJ is going to hurt.

 

http://www.sportingc...ats/drops/2013/

I liked SJ, but losing him is not going to hurt. Mike Williams is a more than adequate replacement, and probably better. It allows them to move Woods inside where he will be hard to stop, and he is a more reliable receiver. With the addition of Watkins, SJ was no better than 4th on the depth chart.

[eball]

 

My point: He's not as bad as some fans here think. There are others with higher drop rates on this team. He's right in the middle of NFL receivers. Which isn't bad considering he's had to play with more QBs than I can even count.

 

Do different QBs throw a different football? If the ball hits Stevie in the hands and he drops it, are you really suggesting it's because a different guy threw it?

 

To hear some people put Stevie in the top 5 Bills WRs of all time, with even an "average" catch rate, is just funny to me.

 

The Bills' passing offense will not be worse this year without Stevie; I'd bank on it.