Cost of Watkins = Typical Media Bias against Buffalo

[Kelly the Dog]

I give the Watkins pick a C, personally.

 

The rest of the draft is solidly in the B to A area.

 

Why do I give Watkins a C? Not because of the player, but because of what we have around the player. We have an organization that historically gets it wrong, which doesn't help when we have questions at HC/OC and at QB. When you're looking at a WRs development, the play calls and the guy throwing to you are very important. Since those are generally question marks going into the pick, and we had SJ13 (arguably, a solid WR), picked up Williams, and have two promising guys last year... in many ways, Watkins didn't fill a "real" need. The "real" receiving need was a big "always open" guy for EJ to use as a safety valve.

 

That all being said, Watkins looks to be great. So my C is not anything against him. It's just what he's going into that dulls things.

 

It's a huge risk move, with a lot of questions, and so in the end, it gets a C, since it's not guaranteed (as much as one can guarantee) success, and it's not guaranteed failure.

 

The rest of the picks all filled needs, other than the ILB, but one could argue we need depth there since we only have Spikes for a year. So that's all in the B-A range.

The difference, and what doesnt seem to brought up enough, is that even first round picks are boom or bust. I dont think anyone argues that Sammy is one of the most if not THE most bust free players in this or any draft. That's the reason it is a good trade. If they did it for Greg Robinson, even though he is very highly regarded, he still has a decent chance to be a bust. Half the first round picks are busts, not very good, or average players. Watkins is as sure of a sure thing as you can get. If you get one good player and one not so good, is that better than Sammy Watkins? I don't think so.

 

Again, time will only tell. But people arent factoring in the bust percentage. Before the draft, a #1 seems like a lot. Two years after the draft, only half of them will.

[mousetrap08]

Even Bill P is saying that the Bills gave up to much but wasn't it he who gave up multiple high draft picks to get Cornelius Bennet from the Colts. What a hypocrite.

[jahbonas]

Even Bill P is saying that the Bills gave up to much but wasn't it he who gave up multiple high draft picks to get Cornelius Bennet from the Colts. What a hypocrite.

 

I'm a big fan of Polian myself - but I have to agree with you.

In fact in 1987 era there was no free agency as a 2nd way to improve your team - it was only the draft. Whaley has freed up 55 million for free agent acquisition the next off season

[Kirby Jackson]

We'll forget all about next year's pick the moment we see Sammy Watkins violently snatch a ball 12 feet out of the air then fall backward into the endzone.

I am stunned that people both locally & nationally question the pick. The Bills just drafted the top playmaker in the last 4-5 years!! There are people that were wishing that they would have taken a solid RT over Watkins!! Seriously?!? This guy is ELITE. I beg any of you questioning it to go watch this years Orange Bowl (it's on YouTube). Watch the whole game and then come back and report on what is wrong with Watkins game. This may very well be the best player that we have drafted since Thurman (and I'm serious about that). Please stop with the price being too high. They have tons of $ for free agency & can address holes there. You need generational players to win and the Bills just landed one.

[1billsfan]

I love the Sammy pic, I however wonder if we didn't get duped on the compensation for the pick. I saw reports yesterday that Atlanta was going to give a 3rd round pick to Jacksonville to move from 6 to 3, but Jacksonville, who was ready to make the deal, bailed in fear that someone else would reach up and grab Bortles before they got a chance.

You can say Watkins was the best player in the draft, but we still took him at 4 and gave up WAY more than Atlanta was giving up to move above that.

 

I think Whaley made a desperate move and got taken a bit. Now I just hope to hell Sammy is so good that next year we don't care.

 

I think that people are getting confused on the trade value table.

 

Even NFL media outlets have it wrong. NFP did a recent story grading the trades in this year's draft and said the Bills move from #9 to #4 was worth the #45 pick, so giving up an extra #1 pick was overpaying. However, the part they don't tell you is that #45 pick is based on the value of the CURRENT draft not next year's draft. Trading a future 2015 1st round pick, let's go ahead and project #15 overall for the Bills, is worth about half the value which would be about 525 points, which is in the same ballpark as the #45 460 points.

 

As for the Atlanta trade, they would have traded THIS year's 3rd rd pick in a deep draft that would have multiple 2nd round graded players there at that pick. So that value was accurate especially if Bortles was the player they wanted and by all accounts would have been there at Atlanta's #6 overall. They just didn't want to risk the unthinkable happening.

[Captain Hindsight]

If Watkins turns into Aj Green or Larry Fitzgerald, than using two number ones on him is pretty much a moot point IMO.

 

The Bills needed an elite playmaker and they got one. I don't love the idea of trading future picks but I love the idea of having an elite talent more.

[CodeMonkey]

So because the Bills might need a QB next year, the grade for this year's draft should be downgraded? Again I think that's silly. But so too are immediate draft grades. What I'm more concerned about is whether they addressed needs, and they did.

WR was a need (in my opinion a big one) and it was clearly addressed, yes.

And yes downgraded by some because like I said, it was seen as a [unnecessary] risk. In their opinion the risk/reward was not there for a WR. YMMV of course.

[Kelly the Dog]

Another point to ponder is that most people here think that Kiper and McShay and the pundits are idiots and almost always wrong.

 

So tell me, why would you care if someone who is almost always wrong doesn't like your pick. You should be much more worried if they DID like the trade.

[jahbonas]

Opinion of retired NFL Scout

 

 

http://nfldraftdiamonds.com/former-n...ls-draft-best/

[Big Turk]

The funny thing is if the Bills are a playoff team or even have a winning record, the "draft value chart" everyone seems to keep bringing up actually works in our favor in terms of points

[TC in St. Louis]

You can always look at it this way: one of the best moves you all feel Whaley made was trading down last year to get EJ later and an extra 2nd round pick from St. Louis. That pick turned into Kiko Alonso. I think he is worth a 1st round pick now that we look back. So Whaley essentially pulled off getting an extra 1st round pick last year. So he gave it back to get who might end up being the best player in the draft and certainly one that could have the most immediate impact? I'll take that. You're even

 

Great point about Kiko. We got a great player, moved back 8 picks, and drafted the QB we wanted. Ha ha Rams. Ha ha Dixon.

[Gordio]

I understand it.

 

Rightfully so, a lot of the media (as well as public) sees the Bills as many pieces away from contending as they are in the midst of 6 straight last place finished. I dont think that is necessarily the case unless the wheels fall off.

 

Everyone has also been conditioned to expect the Bills' pick to land in the top 5 or 10.

 

I agree with this. It all depends on where you view the Bills are at of how much you like this move. If you view them like I do in which they are playmaker on offense & if they could somehow get marginal play out of the QB position this year, they are a playoff contender you like the move. if view them like most of the outside medie does that they are several good offseasons away from being a true contender you probably think it was a bad move.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I still don't like the cost of the trade. Is Watkins that much better than Beckham? ...who we could have gotten at 9.

 

People still don't get it. The bills think he was the best player in the draft.

 

Is Calvin Johnson that much better than ted ginn or Dwayne bowe?

 

If the bills offered 2 #1s to Detroit for Calvin Johnson, would they take it?

 

How about AJ green? Would he be worth 2 first round picks? Who was the Odell beckham (third best WR) in that draft?

 

The real problem I see is people think the confidence displayed is arrogance.

 

We will see in about 4 months which it is. But I respect the FO deeply for taking a swing for the fences. The roster is on solid foundation. They mortgaged one potential future starter. And the NFL is about elite players raising the level of play and making big plays to win games. There is no WR on the bills who comes close to that. Hasn't really been a WR like that since Moulds.

 

I'd agreed with two #1s to get a rookie Moulds.

 

Perspective... Gotta see the guy play at the NFL level before calling him too costly

 

 

 

 

 

[CodeMonkey]

No, 1 +1 -1 = 1...they gave up one #1 pick...they gave #9 and got #4.....that means they gave one #1, next years..what is so complicated about this??? So to say they gave up two is incorrect.

No matter how you want to say it, the Bills used two #1 picks, or they gave up an additional #1. Really a non-issue. So much paranoia

[purple haze]

And the sad thing is local media is whining as well. We gave up two #1 picks for a guy that most likely (according to EVERY 'expert') will become an elite player. But Buffalo gave up too much? What is an elite player that other teams must game plan for worth?

 

I don't remember anywhere near the angst from NFLN, ESPN Etal. about the Julio Jones trade and they gave up essentially THREE #1's a #2 etc. But why is this? Because its BUFFALO!

 

All of a sudden this 'elite' player who many teams had #1 Overall on their board 'must work out to justify the cost'? Um this is the same guy you guys were touting as either the top guy or top 2 in your analysis and mock drafts right? The same guy who the experts said would be an elite WR, that would excel in the NFL, a 'No miss prospect'? But all of a sudden he must work out?

 

Typical Bull **** bias toward the Bills and it has been glaring from that pick through now when the media and some fans are still whining about it. Sometimes you just have to pull the trigger. Who knows who we get next year and honestly I dont give a damn about the 2015 draft at all. I want to win NOW. I want to see significant progress NOW. And if whaley is good he will keep the quality talent he knows can fit our system and win (within reason...) and he can find talent in the 2nd round on next year. If we have a playoff team THIS year, adding to it in the future is much easier...the core of the playoff team is already in place!

 

Look Whaley has put together a team that should gel pretty damn well before that really crappy December run. If we get a RT And Guard that start and kick ass, along with The running game improving and Watkins, Wood, Williams and Goodwin kicking ass along with FINALLY stopping the run much better than we did, then this team is light years ahead of even last year. And to me that means playoffs.

 

Ill just say it right now, (and I get these are two if's) IF the team stays healthy, and IF the new guys Gel... We beat NE for the AFCE Title. Yes I said it, we will win the AFC East division title.

 

Its on like a Mofo!

 

Agree with you. And they didn’t even give up two first round picks. The way they report these deals is misleading. They SWAPPED first round picks this year. The way it’s reported one would think they just gave up a first this year and next year without getting one back.

[drinkTHEkoolaid]

Opinion of retired NFL Scout

 

 

http://nfldraftdiamonds.com/former-n...ls-draft-best/

 

I like his take. Nice positive article

[Big Turk]

Opinion of retired NFL Scout

 

 

http://nfldraftdiamonds.com/former-n...ls-draft-best/

 

I think Whaley is a phenomenal judge of talent and I think we have reached the tipping point where we have enough talented guys that we are going to start winning regardless of anything else because we just have more good players than a lot of the other teams. This roster is pretty impressive if you look at it top to bottom and if EJ makes a normal jump from year 1 to year 2 that most QBs do playoffs are a very realistic expectation.

 

I pretty much agree with most of what the scout said and I've been wondering wtf are these analysts looking at? We drafted some very, very good players.

[purple haze]

It should reflect on this years grade because this is the year they mortgaged next year's pick.

And you hit on one reason why giving up next years first caused a downgrade, if the Bills do decide they need a QB, they have no first round pick next year to try and get one.

The Bills really did go all in with Manuel just like they said they were. Bills fans may like that, but more neutral observers are likely to see it as taking a big risk for a WR.

 

The only place to draft a QB is in the first round? Kaepernick and Dalton do okay for second round picks. So does Drew Brees. Gabbert and Ponder aren’t so hot for top 12 picks in round one.

 

I feel like Whaley does: that first rounder will be a low first rounder anyway. Onward and upward.

[TC in St. Louis]

Get the big picture. Whaley worked the draft like a stockbroker. The picks are commodities. He got Cyril Richardson AND Cyrus K. by moving down 3 spots trading with the Rams. He moved down a few and got the Big Man from Miami (Santrell whatever) by trading with Tampa. These offensive linemen, if they can stay healthy and off the drugs, could be our wall for the next 10 years. These are not reaches, they are investments in gargantuan homo sapiens who could save our QB from harm's way.

 

I believe he stole the RB from Philly with a 4th rounder in next year's draft or the 2016 draft.

 

I think Doug Whaley masterfully manipulated his way into the best draft in years. Time will tell, but I am in love with the way he ran this draft.

[Kellyto83TD]

The most irritating thing is when I see media or posters incorrectly state we gave up 2 first round picks. We only lost ONE first round pick in the trade up. We traded 2 and got back one first rounder. 2-1 = 1 and for the life of me I can not figure out why that math equation is difficult for the media and posters on this board to grasp.

 

Once again, the ONLY cost associated with getting in position to get Watkins was the additional picks.

 

True in essence we gave up next years 1st. Recouped it in the Stevie trade then traded it for the RB

 

Even Bill P is saying that the Bills gave up to much but wasn't it he who gave up multiple high draft picks to get Cornelius Bennet from the Colts. What a hypocrite.

 

As much as Iove me some Bill P.... he is out of the NFL for a reason