dave mcbride Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Its possible that it is a trend that is going up. I think this year was more of an outlier, especially because there will be so many un drafted. In 2010 and 11 there were 53 and 56. Then the draft changed. In 2012 it was 65 and last year 73. This year it was 98 or over a 100 according to some lists. I think it goes down next year but it's possible 100 will be the new norm. This was just a good year for young talent (the top four) and 14 of the top 32. Doesn't it have to do with getting s year closer to year five of nfl tenure given the relatively low salaries in those years? Why risk injury and a year on your treads in college if you know you'll get drafted? You'll be more appealing as a FA if you're 25 rather than 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 You look at Waley's face when they called out Watkins name. His facial expression doesn't say yeah I got my guy. It says, not the right pick but Brandon wanted him. This is either brilliant trolling or insane stupidity. I'll let others be the judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOGNESS Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 FIRE WHALEY NOW. This trade is an outrage. This is either brilliant trolling or insane stupidity. I'll let others be the judge. A combination of both!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 :wallbash: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oman128 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The real question is can E.J. get the Ball to Watkins, Woods, Spiller etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 "We went into this draft saying we were going to be bold, and we made a bold move," Bills CEO Russ Brandon said. This is just stupid, IMO, and makes me hate giving up the EJ insurance. Sounds like they wanted to be bold just to be bold............If he said We wanted Watkins and were going to do what we had to do - it would at least wound better. one of the problems with living in a sound bite world is that absent context, just about anything sounds sorta dumb. obviously, you read that as bold for the sale of boldness. you might be right. i read that, and look that the totality of what they have been trying to do and see it as being bold to improve the team, win football games, and get to the playoffs. i'm happy to stipulate that rb is a bean counter and the overall financial health of the team is always a consideration. bottom line--the guys in charge felt like they made a sensible deal at a reasonable price. i would not want the guys in charge operating in any way other than that...though i reserve the right to keep my pitchfork, tar and feathers close at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tintonfallsbillsfan Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 They did not pay to much. THis years second has a chance to be every bit as good as next years 15-22 . They can also add talent through free agancy next year. Which they may have discussed before trading the pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Doesn't it have to do with getting s year closer to year five of nfl tenure given the relatively low salaries in those years? Why risk injury and a year on your treads in college if you know you'll get drafted? You'll be more appealing as a FA if you're 25 rather than 26. Maybe. But the majority of the players are going to be disappointed. Most 3rd to 7th rounders never amount to anything or even get to their 3rd or 4th year. Most benefit from an extra year in college. Khalil Mack was interviewed yesterday and he wanted to come out last year. He was slotted to be a fourth round pick. His mom convinced him to stay in school another year and graduate and now he was the #5 overall. I know there are examples the other way, too, and I understand the extra year, but unless you're taken in the top three rounds, it's a mistake IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seq004 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Prisco hates it but I've been listening to a lot of people who love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 (edited) Prisco hates it but I've been listening to a lot of people who love it. Can you tell me who you've been listening to, I'm still searching for someone other than a kool aid drinking Bills fan that likes it. Every analyst on every network is saying we over paid, I know, damn the analysts --- I get it --- but when they love our moves, you all will be first to post that as well --- Edited May 9, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Can you tell me who you've been listening to, I'm still searching for someone other than a kool aid drinking Bills fan that likes it. Every analyst on every network is saying we over paid, I know, damn the analysts --- I get it --- but when they love our moves, you all will be first to post that as well --- Every single one of those analysts also think that Sammy Watkins is an absolute stud, one of the best WR prospects in the last 10 years, and one of the top 3-5 players in the entire draft. Look at the last 20 years of the Bills first round draft picks. More than half of them are busts. There is almost zero chance that Watkins is a bust. About half of every years first round picks are considered busts, and the Bills have a bigger percentage than most. So four years from now, when either Eric Ebron and/or the Bills player they would draft next year is a bust, would you trade Sammy Watkins for those two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Every single one of those analysts also think that Sammy Watkins is an absolute stud, one of the best WR prospects in the last 10 years, and one of the top 3-5 players in the entire draft. Look at the last 20 years of the Bills first round draft picks. More than half of them are busts. There is almost zero chance that Watkins is a bust. About half of every years first round picks are considered busts, and the Bills have a bigger percentage than most. So four years from now, when either Eric Ebron and/or the Bills player they would draft next year is a bust, would you trade Sammy Watkins for those two? Agree on Watkins, but paid too much for a WR prospect --- I'd rather have my 1st in 2015 and Beckham (or Evans or Ebron) --- sure, if Beckham, Ebron are both busts, and Watkins is an all-pro, it'll feel better --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Many draft pundits claim that this trade was poorly done by the Bills and that they gave up too much to move up. The actual difference in points between #9 and #4 is {1800-1350) = 450 points. The Bills swapped the first round picks and in addition gave up the 2015 first and fourth round picks. How should we evaluate the cost for next year’s picks.? The usual assumption is that the Bills would finish the 2015 season with the same draft position, so using that criteria and the “standard assessment” of discounting next year’s picks by 50% of their value, then the Bills spend 717 points in order to move up 450 points. A bad deal. The view of Whaley is that the Bills will have a much better record next year, so the deal is not so bad. Here is the cost of next year’s 1st and 4th round picks [@ 50% discount] compared to possible draft slots that the Bills might attain next year. 2015 Finish ......……value of 1st & 4th .......................…..overpayment .......................................................overpayment in terms of a draft pick ============================================= 9…….....717…..…....267…………….top 3rd round pick 10……....691…..…....241 11……...655….....….215 12……...639….....…189………………middle 3rd round pick 13……...613……....163 14.……..587….....…137 15……...561…….....111……………..top 4th round pick 16…..….535……......85 17…..…509…….......59……………..~ middle 4th round pick 18..…….483……......33……………….middle 5th round pick 19……...470….....….20………………middle 5th round pick 20……...456…....……6……………….lower 7th round pick 21……...430…..…..-20 22…...…419……....-31 23……...408……...-42 24……..397……....-53 25……..386…....…-64 26……..375…...….-75 27….….365…….....-86 28……..354……....-96 29……..344.…….-107 30……..333..……-117 31……..323…..…-128 32……..317…….-133 So for the Bills to break even on the draft value chart, they would have to get to the #20th best record (Cardinals) with about a 10-4 record- win 6 more games. If they go 8-8 and match Pittsburg #15 spot, then the overpayment is a pick at the top of the 4th round. These are not gamebreakers- if the Bills improve their record. Another question is whether it was a good idea to give up a chance to draft an extra player in the first and third round next year. I don't think so. If the Bills had the first pick in this draft apparently they would have taken Sammy. So that 1800 in the formula could be a 3000 or 2600 from the perspective of how they valued the player. They paid a market price based on where they took him. So if they evaluated him correctly then they made out fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
die hard bills fan Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I think the bills did NOT pay to much. According to the BILLS reasoning Watkins was their #1 rated player on the board and was worth the #1 pick this year. To get the #1 pick Houston wanted either a first- and second-round pick in this year’s draft and another first-round pick in 2015, or three #1's - depending on who you listened to. So to me, to give up a 1st and 3rd next year is worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I'm not into comparing the relative similarities OR differences from a football standpoint. EJ Manuel is gonna get his 1,000 attempts, regardless. So you continue to get him the best supporting cast possible. And while we all knew Kelly was destined for greatness, he had a two year head start playing in a competitive pro league. He told me personally the experience of working with Mouse Davis did more to help him learn to read defenses than anything else. There is nothing remotely connected about having a 1st round pick next year and getting the next best thing at QB. Whomever and wherever that pick eventually becomes cannot be quantified at this juncture. But again, it's a moot point. My only point is that the negative reactions by a sizeable portion of the fanbase then and now are remarkably similar in their immediate damnation of the trades. Half the town was convinced Polian mortgaged the future. GO BILLS!!! Totally disagree with this. I remember being out that night - a Saturday Halloween, and EVERYBODY I talked to was so psyched............In fact, the only person I remember that thought Polian mortgaged the future, ironically, was John Murphy. IIRC, he said that for a number of years on his show - ironic in that now he would never go against what the Bills did or were about to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 We just used two #1 picks to upgrade Stevie Johnson to Sammy Watkins. BRB heading to the liquor store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 We just used two #1 picks to upgrade Stevie Johnson to Sammy Watkins. BRB heading to the liquor store. Please pick something up for me! I thought the Bills had made all the right moves in the last two offseasons - until last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Totally disagree with this. I remember being out that night - a Saturday Halloween, and EVERYBODY I talked to was so psyched............In fact, the only person I remember that thought Polian mortgaged the future, ironically, was John Murphy. IIRC, he said that for a number of years on his show - ironic in that now he would never go against what the Bills did or were about to do. Ah yes, the revelry of that Halloween party night and everybody loved it. I remember it quite well myself. Until the sobering details of exactly how much we gave up began to emerge and the call-in shows were swamped with the same short-sighted nimrods that call in today. There was a good mixture of excitement as we looked forward to Bennett's premier along with the usual suspects who claimed it didn't matter how good he was, that you just can't do that with a 3-4 team coming off a 4-12 season, being "more than a great OLB away. yada yada yada. I'm glad you were able to surround yourself with positive minded people the entire week leading up to Bennett's debut. But if you didn't hear the negative voices around the water coolers, on the air, and in the editorial pages, you weren't paying attention. GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Agree on Watkins, but paid too much for a WR prospect --- I'd rather have my 1st in 2015 and Beckham (or Evans or Ebron) --- sure, if Beckham, Ebron are both busts, and Watkins is an all-pro, it'll feel better --- It's been established that they were taking Ebron. So if either Ebron or the guy they would take next year are busts, it was a good trade. Even if they were both good, and Watkins is a stud, it is a good trade. I understand your stance. And both of yours and mine are equally as valid now, because so much is an unknown. My point is simply that all around the league, a #1 any year is a 50-50 proposition. Watkins is a can't miss for all intents and purposes. So unless Ebron is a very good player, AND the guy they would draft next year is a very, very good player, AND Watkins is somewhat less than a star, it seems like a good deal to me. A star player is worth more than two very good players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Ah yes, the revelry of that Halloween party night and everybody loved it. I remember it quite well myself. Until the sobering details of exactly how much we gave up began to emerge and the call-in shows were swamped with the same short-sighted nimrods that call in today. There was a good mixture of excitement as we looked forward to Bennett's premier along with the usual suspects who claimed it didn't matter how good he was, that you just can't do that with a 3-4 team coming off a 4-12 season, being "more than a great OLB away. yada yada yada. I'm glad you were able to surround yourself with positive minded people the entire week leading up to Bennett's debut. But if you didn't hear the negative voices around the water coolers, on the air, and in the editorial pages, you weren't paying attention. GO BILLS!!! I certainly was paying attention. I was more obsessed then than I am now, which is saying a lot..........My guess is that 15-20% of Bills fans were negative about it, at the most. And, this trade is 40% or so against it. I know I was all for the Bennett trade and totally against this one. We had Kelly already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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