Did the Bills pay too much to move up for Watkins?

[bananathumb]

I believe the Bills overpaid, but the men who made the deal (Brandon and Whaley) will likely be gone next year when the Bills have no 1st or 4th rounder. The new owner will most likely bring his own management team and they will have to deal with the empty cupboard. Party today and don't worry about tomorrow. A recipe for success? I don't think so. A 6-10 team gambling like this is not a smart move, but it does smell like desperation. Desperation is an emotional response and not an intellectual one. I would have drafted with my head and not my heart.

 

There is a reason why some teams always manage to fail and others always manage to succeed. Look at Jax drafting Bortles at #3. Does it sound smart or desperate? Jax stinks for a reason and they proved it again.

 

Top draft picks are the lifeblood of an NFL team. If you give them away, you won't succeed. Washington suffered greatly by giving all those top picks to the Rams to get Robert Griffin. It is a bad strategy on the whole.

 

Good post.

[TC in St. Louis]

I am glad to have him on the team. We've had bad luck with first round picks in the past. Who needs 'em? What happened with Walt Patulski? Tom Cousineau? Friggin' Booker Moore got Guillen Barre Syndrome and couldn't move for a year. Erik Flowers. And on and on.

 

We got Sammy. Throw him the damn ball.

 

I would like to see some run stuffers on the other side of the ball, or we'll have to outscore everybody. How bout the kid from Wisconsin? Borland. He's like Spielman and Zach Thomas. Tackling machine. Book that guy. Come on boys.

[OCinBuffalo]

The "mortgaging the future" talk is a riot. It has no meaning. Giving up a 1st round pick (who cares about a future 4th) on a team with a spotty draft history in the first round for the top offensive player in the draft is the definition of value.

 

There were a ton of posters who were happy to blow a top 9 pick on an O-lineman! And the 4th best one at that! Now there are complaints about spending an extra top pick on an actual impact player at an actual impact position?

 

Crazy.

Not crazy. Calculating.

 

This trade(along with this past FA period, Mario, etc.) makes so much of the "same old Bills" ethos flat out wrong. And whatever is left is called into serious question. One can no longer wear the trappings of being a "realist" with ease, and use the "the Bills never do anything to fix the the team" arguments...

 

....without the possibility of being proven blatantly wrong.

 

These are dangerous times for the lazy pessimist, who has gotten by for so many years by simply repeating the same mantra.

 

They need to get ahead of this trade, and define it now. Otherwise, they may find themselves having to back up what they say from here on out.

 

So...calculating. This trade represents a very real threat to some very long-held opinions/conclusions, that haven't been "rigorous" in years.

[Kirby Jackson]

The "mortgaging the future" talk is a riot. It has no meaning. Giving up a 1st round pick (who cares about a future 4th) on a team with a spotty draft history in the first round for the top offensive player in the draft is the definition of value.

 

There were a ton of posters who were happy to blow a top 9 pick on an O-lineman! And the 4th best one at that! Now there are complaints about spending an extra top pick on an actual impact player at an actual impact position?

 

Crazy.

This x 1,000,000,0000....you are spot on Weo...how could anyone be mad about the top ranked skill player since the 2011 draft?

[Kelly the Dog]

Here is what it boils down to with me.

 

1] At 9 the Bills, according to the TG article, were drafting Eric Ebron (he was the guy I wanted at 9 if we couldnt get Evans).

2] This year is noted for being an extremely deep draft, and one of the main reasons was so many underclassmen came out. One third more than last year. 14 were chosen in the first round which will not be available in the first round next year.

3] The Bills are likely to be picking between 15-20 next year. To me, because this is a much deeper draft, and because so many underclassmen came out, next years 15-20 will be more like this year's 20-25.

4] This year's 20-25 is Ha Ha Clinton Dix, Johnny Field Goal, Dee Ford, Darqueze Dennard, and Jason Verrett.

 

So the question is, would you trade Eric Ebron and anyone of those five guys for Sammy Watkins?

 

In a heartbeat. Every single time. No question.

[eball]

The "mortgaging the future" talk is a riot. It has no meaning. Giving up a 1st round pick (who cares about a future 4th) on a team with a spotty draft history in the first round for the top offensive player in the draft is the definition of value.

 

There were a ton of posters who were happy to blow a top 9 pick on an O-lineman! And the 4th best one at that! Now there are complaints about spending an extra top pick on an actual impact player at an actual impact position?

 

Crazy.

 

Hear, hear! Buy this WEO a

Edited May 9, 2014 by eball

[TXBILLSFAN]

I love these posts that say we suck at drafting so it isn't a big deal to give up future picks -- so, if we suck at drafting, why don't we get people who can draft ? Look, I think Whaley had a good first draft, why not have a good second draft upgrade RT, LB, TE and DE and play out the year and see if EJ is the guy. If he isn't the guy, you need next year's one for QB -- if he is the guy, then go bold --- I just hate the idea of going all in on EJ, he hasn't proven to me that he is the guy --- and we all know, until you get the guy, you ain't winning a SuperBowl and last time I checked, that was the objective.

[Casey D]

Actually, $1 million cash right now is worth more than $1 million in cash next year because of inflation. You don't even have to compare (1) cash in hand, with (2) a mere promise to pay the same amount of cash in the future, to reach that conclusion.

 

Unless you think the NFL will fold before next year's draft, the comparison is between a pick this year and a pick next year - - not between a pick this year and a mere promise that you'll be allowed to make a pick next year.

 

But the whole "time value of money" thing is a false analogy. Money has value because you can exchange it for stuff. Money has "time value" because $100 will usually buy you less pencils a year from now than it will today, because inflation will make the cost of each pencil higher a year from now.

 

But draft picks are different. The #1 overall pick in this year's draft can be exchanged for the best player in this year's draft. The #1 overall pick in next year's draft can be exchanged for the best player in next year's draft. So unless you have some reason to think that the overall talent level of football players is declining each year, the #1 overall pick next year is generally worth just as much as the #1 overall pick this year (in terms of the amount of talent it can add to your team).

 

Sometimes conventional wisdom is a whole lot more conventional than it is wise.

 

So would you give up the 2nd round pick today for say Detroit's 1st round pick in 2017? Why not? Because you get the player this year for 3 years before you even get the 2017 pick? There is plainly a time value here.

 

Why did Buffalo say no to throwing in the 4th round pick this year, and Cleveland reject the Bills' 4th round pick in 2016 to make this deal? They settle on 2015. Again, there is a time value here, which does not apply only to money. Not really hard to understand.

[12Kachy]

You look at Waley's face when they called out Watkins name. His facial expression doesn't say yeah I got my guy. It says, not the right pick but Brandon wanted him.

[Chuck Schick]

 

 

I believe the Bills overpaid, but the men who made the deal (Brandon and Whaley) will likely be gone next year when the Bills have no 1st or 4th rounder. The new owner will most likely bring his own management team and they will have to deal with the empty cupboard. Party today and don't worry about tomorrow. A recipe for success? I don't think so. A 6-10 team gambling like this is not a smart move, but it does smell like desperation. Desperation is an emotional response and not an intellectual one. I would have drafted with my head and not my heart.

 

There is a reason why some teams always manage to fail and others always manage to succeed. Look at Jax drafting Bortles at #3. Does it sound smart or desperate? Jax stinks for a reason and they proved it again.

 

Top draft picks are the lifeblood of an NFL team. If you give them away, you won't succeed. Washington suffered greatly by giving all those top picks to the Rams to get Robert Griffin. It is a bad strategy on the whole.

I think you're cherry picking your examples. If trading up were ALWAYS bad, no one would do it. As for the change in ownership, I highly doubt Whaley would purposely sabotage the team's future with this kind of move. The guy obviously did his homework, considered the options, and made his move. Now all we can do is sit back and see what happens.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

Why did Buffalo say no to throwing in the 4th round pick this year, and Cleveland reject the Bills' 4th round pick in 2016 to make this deal? They settle on 2015. Again, there is a time value here, which does not apply only to money. Not really hard to understand.

The picks have time value to the people making the decisions, because they are employed by impatient owners who will fire them if they don't show results fairly quickly. But as a fan, I'm all for making trades that give the Bills the best chance of winning a Super Bowl, even if that takes a few years.

 

Maybe if I had a terminal disease, and knew I wouldn't be around to enjoy some future Super Bowl victory, I would value draft picks the way you suggest.

 

What would you rather have - - (1) no playoffs in 2014, playoffs in 2015, and a Super Bowl victory a few years later, or (2) playoffs in 2014 and 2015 but no future championship?

 

Personally, I would go for the future championship. If most fans would prefer immediate playoffs with no championship, that says more about (1) how fans value immediate psychological gratification, than it does about (2) how much future draft picks can improve the team.

Edited May 9, 2014 by ICanSleepWhenI'mDead

[bbb]

"We went into this draft saying we were going to be bold, and we made a bold move," Bills CEO Russ Brandon said.

 

This is just stupid, IMO, and makes me hate giving up the EJ insurance. Sounds like they wanted to be bold just to be bold............If he said We wanted Watkins and were going to do what we had to do - it would at least wound better.

[Casey D]

The picks have time value to the people making the decisions, because they are employed by impatient owners who will fire them if they don't show results fairly quickly. But as a fan, I'm all for making trades that give the Bills the best chance of winning a Super Bowl, even if that takes a few years.

 

Maybe if I had a terminal disease, and knew I wouldn't be around to enjoy some future Super Bowl victory, I would value draft picks the way you suggest.

 

What would you rather have - - (1) no playoffs in 2014, playoffs in 2015, and a Super Bowl victory a few years later, or (2) playoffs in 2014 and 2015 but no future championship?

 

Personally, I would go for the future championship. If most fans would prefer immediate playoffs with no championship, that says more about (1) how fans value immediate psychological gratification, than it does about (2) how much future draft picks can improve the team.

 

There is nothing wrong about how you feel about things, but markets are made objectively not subjectively. Taking your position to an extreme, we could forfeit all our picks for the next 3 years in return for 5 first round picks in 2017. That might get us closer to a Super bowl someday, but the team will suck for several years, with no guarantee of anything down the line. I mean what is 1st round pick in 2025 worth? Objectively, nothing, even though in 2025 it will be worth something I suppose, and you might value it as a long term benefit as it might one day get the Bills to win a SB. Money that is owed to you beyond 7 years from now has basically no present value, but in 10 years I guess it will be worth something. Deferring things is fine, but too far and it's essentially worthless.

 

No one knows whether Watkins will prove more valuable in terms of winning a Super Bowl, as opposed to having say Ebron and two guys from next year. If you knew not taking Watkins will get you to the promised land sooner as you opine, you would not take Watkins-- it's a no-brainer. But no one knows that. I generally share your view that getting as many picks as possible is a better long term strategy, but for every rule there is an exception. If you think Watkins really will get you over the hump, you do it. That's a judgment call, no right or wrong to it... CD

 

"We went into this draft saying we were going to be bold, and we made a bold move," Bills CEO Russ Brandon said.

 

This is just stupid, IMO, and makes me hate giving up the EJ insurance. Sounds like they wanted to be bold just to be bold............If he said We wanted Watkins and were going to do what we had to do - it would at least wound better.

 

Watkins was the highest rated player on the Bills'-- and apparently several other team's-- board. Getting the best player in the draft is bold-- they were not going to trade up to get anyone other than Watkins and Clowney. Makes perfect sense.

[K-9]

There are several BIG differences between the two situations, Bennett trade and Watkins trade -- (1) Bills knew back then that they had a franchise QB, their were NO QUESTIONS about that. There are still tons of questons about EJ. That is my biggest problem with this trade. If EJ had played like Russell Wilson, or Kaepernick or Luck -- I'd say, roll the dice, we are close --- there is more evidence to suggest EJ is NOT the guy, than he is the guy. So, why not build the rest of the team -- see that EJ proves he's the guy and then go BOLD next draft ?

 

I'm not into comparing the relative similarities OR differences from a football standpoint. EJ Manuel is gonna get his 1,000 attempts, regardless. So you continue to get him the best supporting cast possible. And while we all knew Kelly was destined for greatness, he had a two year head start playing in a competitive pro league. He told me personally the experience of working with Mouse Davis did more to help him learn to read defenses than anything else.

 

There is nothing remotely connected about having a 1st round pick next year and getting the next best thing at QB. Whomever and wherever that pick eventually becomes cannot be quantified at this juncture. But again, it's a moot point.

 

My only point is that the negative reactions by a sizeable portion of the fanbase then and now are remarkably similar in their immediate damnation of the trades. Half the town was convinced Polian mortgaged the future.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited May 9, 2014 by K-9

[dave mcbride]

Here is what it boils down to with me.

 

1] At 9 the Bills, according to the TG article, were drafting Eric Ebron (he was the guy I wanted at 9 if we couldnt get Evans).

2] This year is noted for being an extremely deep draft, and one of the main reasons was so many underclassmen came out. One third more than last year. 14 were chosen in the first round which will not be available in the first round next year.

3] The Bills are likely to be picking between 15-20 next year. To me, because this is a much deeper draft, and because so many underclassmen came out, next years 15-20 will be more like this year's 20-25.

4] This year's 20-25 is Ha Ha Clinton Dix, Johnny Field Goal, Dee Ford, Darqueze Dennard, and Jason Verrett.

 

So the question is, would you trade Eric Ebron and anyone of those five guys for Sammy Watkins?

 

In a heartbeat. Every single time. No question.

Dog - serious question -- why wouldn't the number of underclassmen coming out next year be any different than this year? The incentives won't have changed.

[OCinBuffalo]

This is just stupid, IMO, and makes me hate giving up the EJ insurance.

 

The EJ insurance was, is, and will always be: a myth.

 

Well, not completely a myth. A myth that has perhaps a ~10% chance of being true.

[dave mcbride]

The picks have time value to the people making the decisions, because they are employed by impatient owners who will fire them if they don't show results fairly quickly. But as a fan, I'm all for making trades that give the Bills the best chance of winning a Super Bowl, even if that takes a few years.

 

Maybe if I had a terminal disease, and knew I wouldn't be around to enjoy some future Super Bowl victory, I would value draft picks the way you suggest.

 

What would you rather have - - (1) no playoffs in 2014, playoffs in 2015, and a Super Bowl victory a few years later, or (2) playoffs in 2014 and 2015 but no future championship?

 

Personally, I would go for the future championship. If most fans would prefer immediate playoffs with no championship, that says more about (1) how fans value immediate psychological gratification, than it does about (2) how much future draft picks can improve the team.

 

You are right about time value. I'm ok with the trade because i love the player, but here's the thing: a 2015 1st rounder should never be downgraded into a second rounder with regard to value by *fans*. GMs and coaches downgrade future-year picks because their tenures are usually quite short, relatively speaking. A pick a year or two down the road means less to *them* because their likelihood of remaining with the team decreases each year by a measurable percentage. A fan like me, though, is stuck with the team for life (for better or worse). We therefore should never conflate a GM/coach's perspective on future-year pick value with our own. They're not the same thing. That 2015 first rounder we traded remains a first to me even if it doesn't for Whaley and Marrone. None of us are in danger of being fired (indeed, we all have life sentences), but Whaley and Marrone are. They'll then move on to the next team that will pay them a salary.

Edited May 9, 2014 by dave mcbride

[TXBILLSFAN]

I'm not into comparing the relative similarities OR differences from a football standpoint. EJ Manuel is gonna get his 1,000 attempts, regardless. So you continue to get him the best supporting cast possible. And while we all knew Kelly was destined for greatness, he had a two year head start playing in a competitive pro league. He told me personally the experience of working with Mouse Davis did more to help him learn to read defenses than anything else.

 

There is nothing remotely connected about having a 1st round pick next year and getting the next best thing at QB. Whomever and wherever that pick eventually becomes cannot be quantified at this juncture. But again, it's a moot point.

 

My only point is that the negative reactions by a sizeable portion of the fanbase then and now are remarkably similar in their immediate damnation of the trades. Half the town was convinced Polian mortgaged the future.

 

GO BILLS!!!

I'm all for taking risks, especially calculated risks and I'm also for helping out EJ -- but trading next year's 1st is way too risky on so many levels -- (1) difference between Watkins and next best WR (according to Whaley, "not much") (2) Deep WR draft, Beckham there at 9 as was Top TE (Bills knew they'd have Beckham, Evans or Ebron) at 9 (3) No guarantee EJ is the guy, so why go all in now and handcuff yourself in 2015 draft if you do indeed need QB ---- Build team with the picks --- upgrade OL, TE on offense to help EJ --- add pieces on defense --- if this plan is working after 2014, i.e. EJ is progressing, then go BOLD --- now, it's reckless ---- I'm damming the trade because based on historical assessment the Bills paid too much to move up 4 spots --- only way they don't is if next year's pick is very low 1st rounder and Watkins is perennial all-pro

Edited May 9, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN

[K-9]

I'm all for taking risks, especially calculated risks and I'm also for helping out EJ -- but trading next year's 1st is way too risky on so many levels -- (1) difference between Watkins and next best WR (according to Whaley, "not much") (2) Deep WR draft, Beckham there at 9 as was Top TE (Bills knew they'd have Beckham, Evans or Ebron) at 9 (3) No guarantee EJ is the guy, so why go all in now and handcuff yourself in 2015 draft if you do indeed need QB ---- Build team with the picks --- upgrade OL, TE on offense to help EJ --- add pieces on defense --- if this plan is working after 2014, i.e. EJ is progressing, then go BOLD --- now, it's reckless ---- I'm damming the trade because based on historical assessment the Bills paid too much to move up 4 spots --- only way they don't is if next year's pick is very low 1st rounder

 

We'll just agree to disagree.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Kelly the Dog]

 

Dog - serious question -- why wouldn't the number of underclassmen coming out next year be any different than this year? The incentives won't have changed.

Its possible that it is a trend that is going up. I think this year was more of an outlier, especially because there will be so many un drafted. In 2010 and 11 there were 53 and 56. Then the draft changed. In 2012 it was 65 and last year 73. This year it was 98 or over a 100 according to some lists. I think it goes down next year but it's possible 100 will be the new norm. This was just a good year for young talent (the top four) and 14 of the top 32.