Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Before Pettine we also had a banged up Williams brothers, we had a Darius who's brother just died and only had one year under his belt total. We had no LB's worth much of anything, now we had Lawson and Kiko. We didn't have Hughes. Maybe his coaching is what turned around McKelvin and Arron Williams, though you could argue it was Henderson coaching the DB's or could have been the other aforementioned changes changes that made these guys look much better. Was Pettine a step up from prior years, yes but I do question how much truly was him vs using his attacking style and now had injury free, more experienced players to back it up. Not saying I'm at all happy he's gone, but the level of hysteria around here I think is way over the top for a guy who's defense struggled as much at times as they did. Without any statistical data to back this up, but it seems to me that position coaches promoted to coordinator positions, succeed at a much higher rate than coordinators promoted to head coach, so if they promote from within which I expect they will , I'm not all that worreid that we'll see this big drop off assuming evenyone stays as healthy as they did. Before Pettine we couldn't stop the run or pass. Last year we could stop the pass, but not the run. Next year, I expect to go back to not stopping either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) there is no mistaking Pettine's attacking style vs wanny's passive read and react. in 2012 the bills under wanny blitzed a league low 15% of the time on pass plays. in 2013 the bills under pettine blitzed 40% of the time on pass plays. Edited January 25, 2014 by papazoid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In 2012, the Bills gave up 5.0 yards per carry. In 2013, the Bills gave up 4.4 yards per carry. More work remains but Pettine made huge progress in both run and pass defense. Some of the progress is obscured by the fact the Bills 'D' was on the field so much. The Bills D faced the 7th most scrimmage plays in the NFL because our offense didn't sustain long drives. Naturally we gave up more yards than some other teams. But Pettine's D only gave up 4.9 yards per play - one of the best averages in the league. By comparison, Denver gave up 5.3 yards per play and they're in the Super Bowl. Pettine's loss is only good news if we hire someone even better. But there aren't a lot of better guys available. Most of the better DCs are already employed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Whaley/Nix deserve the credit for last year's draft, not Pettine. My take on Pettine's departure: Our defense will continue to improve next year, regardless of who the new DC is. We are simply loaded defensively, aside from LBs which will surely be addressed this off season. Also, I suspect we will be ranked higher against the run. Remember how often we were trappled on last year by almost every RB? So Pettine, thanks for the sacks and turnovers. Good luck in Cleveland. I disagree completely. Unless the Bills luck out in finding a new DC with similar ability, I think you'll find that those great draft picks don't look so good after all and the "loaded" defense starts to resemble the 2012 version again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Our defense will continue to improve next year, regardless of who the new DC is. We are simply loaded defensively, Yeah, if we've learned anything over the past 2 years, it's that the DC doesn't really matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The only silver lining I can think of is EJ gets to sink or swim. No playing horribly and getting bailed out by our defense. It's the least you can ask for after passing on Manziel and/or Bridgewater to develop him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 On the other hand, it may spell disaster for the Bills. Come on, which do you think is more likely? Point taken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 In 2012, the Bills gave up 5.0 yards per carry. In 2013, the Bills gave up 4.4 yards per carry. More work remains but Pettine made huge progress in both run and pass defense. Some of the progress is obscured by the fact the Bills 'D' was on the field so much. The Bills D faced the 7th most scrimmage plays in the NFL because our offense didn't sustain long drives. Naturally we gave up more yards than some other teams. But Pettine's D only gave up 4.9 yards per play - one of the best averages in the league. By comparison, Denver gave up 5.3 yards per play and they're in the Super Bowl. Pettine's loss is only good news if we hire someone even better. But there aren't a lot of better guys available. Most of the better DCs are already employed. Great post. Its kinda startling in how so few fans recognize this stuff! All the fans gushing about how the Bills were the #2 rushing team in the NFL and yet they couldn't sustain offensive drives to help keep the defense off the field and rested. Just for a minute sit back and think about how good that defense could have been if the Bills had an offense that could sustain drives by running, and could get a lead in every game and keep it....wow, just wow! Ahh well, the two of us might get it. I'd also like to add that the Bills FO decided they wanted an aggressive style of an attacking defense when they hired Pettine, and so consequently he built the defensive scheme to do exactly that. The Bills were #10 in total defense, and #4 against the pass. The Bills did have the #2 sacking defense in the entire NFL with 57 sacks. Super Mario had 13.0 sacks. Kyle Williams had 10.5 sacks. Jerry Hughes had 10.0 sacks. Marcell Dareus had 7.5 sacks. Both the DT's job was to penetrate to get pressure on the passer, and to get sacks. Rather then clog the middle and stop the run. I would think that the run defense would have improved had Pattine stayed. It sucks he is gone, and judging by the past history of this team I highly doubt they find anyone as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's in My Blood Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yeah, if we've learned anything over the past 2 years, it's that the DC doesn't really matter... We got more sacks and turnovers w/ Pettine because of his scheme. Awesome. How was our run defense? Pettine is a good coordinator, but people are making him out to be the second coming of Lebeau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Pettine is a good coordinator, but people are making him out to be the second coming of Lebeau. Mike Pettine = Bill Brasky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) On the other hand, it may spell disaster for the Bills. Come on, which do you think is more likely? Its a passing league now, noone gives a crap about someone running for a few yards when they can only pass for 140 yards a game with a 65 QB rating... Edited January 25, 2014 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Great post. Its kinda startling in how so few fans recognize this stuff! All the fans gushing about how the Bills were the #2 rushing team in the NFL and yet they couldn't sustain offensive drives to help keep the defense off the field and rested. Just for a minute sit back and think about how good that defense could have been if the Bills had an offense that could sustain drives by running, and could get a lead in every game and keep it....wow, just wow! Ahh well, the two of us might get it. I'd also like to add that the Bills FO decided they wanted an aggressive style of an attacking defense when they hired Pettine, and so consequently he built the defensive scheme to do exactly that. The Bills were #10 in total defense, and #4 against the pass. The Bills did have the #2 sacking defense in the entire NFL with 57 sacks. Super Mario had 13.0 sacks. Kyle Williams had 10.5 sacks. Jerry Hughes had 10.0 sacks. Marcell Dareus had 7.5 sacks. Both the DT's job was to penetrate to get pressure on the passer, and to get sacks. Rather then clog the middle and stop the run. I would think that the run defense would have improved had Pattine stayed. It sucks he is gone, and judging by the past history of this team I highly doubt they find anyone as good. The Bills offense was 26th in average drive length. Too many 3 and outs. Yet our defense was #1 in average opponent drive length! And that was in Pettine's first year with the Bills. I'm imagining that he would have done better statistically overall next year. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats I don't know what kind of HC Pettine will be, but he was a good DC and I was looking forward to awesome things from the him and our D in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulMan Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Pettine's departure...good for him...bad for the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie Nails Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Mike who? Jim's in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I never worry about losing coaches on a losing team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the best alternative to stopping the run is to score a lot of points. pass and stop the pass, and just dont be a disaster in the run game. Hmm. Seems like some low level analytics are in order, huh? I'm going to bold the 2013 numbers, because they are interesting, and they show what the Jets D did without Pettine, and with Rex "taking a larger role in the D". For the same time period that the OP showed the Jets standing in run stopping, here is their standing overall in terms of passing: 2013-31 2012-30 2011-21 2010-22 2009-31 That's an average of 27th over the 5 years. Want to throw out 2013 because Pettine wasn't there? Ok average of 26th So, it seems your premise holds so far: if you suck at passing, chances are you are going to be bad at stopping the run. Why? Because teams don't have to come back on you very often, so they can afford to run the ball. And, if you can't throw it very well, chances are your offense isn't staying on the field, thus giving the other offense more opportunities to run the ball. How about we look at a opponent rushes against the Jets defense over the same time? 2013-26.3(9th fewest) 2012-30.9(29th fewest) 2011-28.2(22nd fewest) 2010-26.6(16th fewest) 2009-25.5(8th fewest) Avg of 16.8. Throwing out 2013? 18.75 fewest rushes against. So, it also seems to hold that if your passing game sucks, chances are people are going to run on you more, because they can. I'd say the outliers in both sets are: outliers. There's a lot of things that can go into why a team passes, or gets run on. (Remember, this is "low level analytics". ) So yeah, I'd say the Jets sucked at passing. They also got run on more than half the league. Now, how about stopping the pass? Opponent passing attempts over time: 2013-36.6(22nd fewest) 2012-30.9(3rd fewest) 2011-31.7(8th fewest) 2010-32.7(12th fewest) 2009-32.4(12th fewest) Avg: 11.4. Throw out 2013? Avg. 8.75 Hmm. The Jets were in/near the top 10 of "least throws against". Passing yards against? 2013-246.7(22nd fewest) 2012-189.8(2nd fewest) 2011-201.0(5th fewest) 2010-200.4(6th fewest) 2009-169.1(1st fewest) Avg: 7.2 Throw out 2013? Avg: 3.5 Whoa! Now that's telling, isn't it? Yeah, the Jets sure could "stop the pass" when Pettine was there. In fact, if this was a real thing I was doing, this result would cause me to immediately look at all teams that have averaged being in the top 10 over the last 5 years, and see what their run ranking was...to see if it mirrored the Jets. So, yeah, your premise about stopping the pass seems to be accurate as well. Now if we look at 2013, we see some sharp contrasts: yeah, the Jets got better at the run in 2013 = 9th, but, they also got awful at defending the pass in the same year = 22nd. This follows the logic: teams that win by passing on you, don't need to run. The OP only showed us Pettine's 2013 run defense rank, not the Jets 2013 pass defense ranking . I will leave the rest of the analysis to the posters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I was looking up the run defense rankings for Mike Pettine as DC from 2009 through the present. The rankings were as followed. 2013--28th 2012--26th 2011--20th 2010--30th 2009--25th To me if you can not stop the run you will never be able to win a championship. Although I agree Pettine is a good DC especially when it comes to pressuring the QB, I also believe this could be his Achilles heel being that it leaves guys out of position to stop these gash plays. I wish Pettine the best but I'm glad to not have his departure looming over this franchise any longer. I have read soo many posts of fans worried about how this will effect the team and i believe they might be jumping the gun.. It is possible that Butfalo could have a better overall defense in 2014 depending on who they bring in. if we can improve the run and keep the pressure up it will be good. Honestly don't know what kind of 43 Schwartz runs but it better not be the Wanny version and more like the Seattle version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yeah, if we've learned anything over the past 2 years, it's that the DC doesn't really matter... great graph cept i'm pretty certain i'm further along in time - consequence of being old. did you notice the y axis isn't labelled? i hope the new coordinator doesn't draw graphs like that... . jim schwartz....i wonder who seattle would have hired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGUNBILLS Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hopefully the new DC and the players will be motivated to prove that it wasn't all Pettine. I'd think it has to be someone who's gonna run the same scheme. Would be interesting to hear who the players want. This we will truly never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jester43 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 evidently Schwartz's defense puts a lot of pressure on linebackers in run defense (i know, what defense doesn't?). in that case, we need linebackers, bad. i am not looking forward to another year of watching us get gashed 15-20 yards off-tackle half a dozen times a game., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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