I still believe in EJ Manuel

[RuntheDamnBall]

One of my worst fears with Manuel is that he'll play well enough to string the Bills along for the next few years; but never well enough to achieve anything in the postseason. If he has 1 - years' worth of performances like he did against the Jets, the Bills might not take a first round QB until 2016. And might well pass up some very good QB prospects between now and then. Prospects who are a much better fit for the standard-issue NFL QB success story than Manuel.

Get over it.

[JohnC]

 

 

I would rather use a first round pick on a college QB who'd proven himself as a pocket passer; than use the pick on a "raw" prospect with great physical gifts. Another participant in this discussion strongly implied this preference is due to racism. What that discussion participant failed to mention was that even when that "raw" prospect was white--Ryan Leaf, Tim Tebow, etc.--I still rejected him.

 

If I were to make a list of the best QBs in NFL history, it would include the following players:

 

Johnny Unitas

Aaron Rodgers

Joe Montana

Steve Young

Peyton Manning

Tom Brady

Roger Staubach

Honorable mentions: Kurt Warner, Warren Moon, Drew Brees, Dan Marino

 

(I'm sure people will be able to think of a few extra names which should be on this list.)

 

A few of those guys--such as Steve Young--had very good physical tools. But for the most part, the above list represents guys heavily gifted with accuracy, reading defenses, etc. Not necessarily guys who were that much different than other NFL starters from a physical standpoint. If you want a top 10 QB of all time, it's much more important to get an elite pocket passer than a guy with good physical gifts.

 

I realize the Bills don't absolutely have to have a top 10 of all time QB. The Ravens just won a Super Bowl with Flacco; and he's not in that top 10 of all time category. But if being a good pocket passer is absolutely essential for being a top 10 of all time QB; then odds are it's also very important for being a top-50 or top-75 of all time QB. I at least want the Bills to have a top-75 of all time QB. That would give them a realistic chance of winning a Super Bowl; assuming they build a sufficiently good team around him. A Super Bowl victory is non-optional!

 

When analyzing prospects in this era you have to recognize that college and high school offenses have changed. This is the era of the spread and pistol approach to offense. There is no doubt that the pro game is different from the college game, but that is not to say that the college game hasn't influenced the pro game.

 

There was a time, not long ago, when young qbs were "groomed" over a period of years. Not now. The economics and the adabtability of the college offenses to the pro ranks has shortened the period of apprenticehip.

 

There is no doubt that an AJ McCarron (Alabama) type qb would comfortably fit your preferred qb profile for a prospect. But a couple of years ago Cam Newton was the first pick taken in the draft. Why?

 

As I have stated in a few prior posts your qb profile makes a lot of sense. But as the pro offenses have evolved your profile has to be more expansive to include qbs such as Newton, Kaepernick and RGIII with different skill sets.

 

If you asked who the best qb in the game is I would say Aaron Rodgers. If you asked me to pick one qb in the game I would most covet it would be Andrew Luck.

Edited November 18, 2013 by JohnC

[C.Biscuit97]

The fact that people were jumping down a rookie's throat is pretty irrational in the first place.

[zow2]

Yesterday was one of those days when EJ's long balls looked better than his short passes and dump offs. Even the long pass to Goodwin in the first Qtr that was incomplete around the 5 was a really good pass. When you look at super slow mo, Goodwin got both hands on the ball...woulda' been a helluva catch but it was right there on him.

 

Great to see EJ throwing it downfield with confidence. I'm also feeling so much better about having Goodwin and TJ in there...

[YoloinOhio]

Just want to say that the OP was right. It takes a lot of intangibles for a rookie to have a game like that in a contest with that kind of huge significance after the game he had in Pitt, as well as the last game he had against the same Jets D. Mental toughness is not something that can be taught.

Edited November 18, 2013 by YoloInTheBlo

[26CornerBlitz]

trent Edwards throws deeper and more accurately...and I hate his guts.

 

Wow! Is this over the top or what?

[Orton's Arm]

 

 

In this game EJ recognized what the defense was going to do and quickly went to the right option with an accurate pass. His ball placement was impeccable. A lot of credit for the efficiency of the passing game has to go to the receivers who made the catches with few drops, if any. Graham and Goodwin caught the long balls but the receiver who kept the chains moving and the offense on the field was Hogan. He plaayed well.

 

I agree that Hogan played well. In fact, his play reminded me a little of this guy.

 

As for the discussion about the kinds of QB prospects we should be looking for: I agree it's possible for a college prospect to succeed as a pro even if he doesn't fit my profile. But I don't want to throw that profile out the window; because it produces correct predictions much more often than not. I'm very concerned about the idea of looking on physical tools as a substitute for proven pocket passing at the college level. I'm not saying that a questionable college pocket passer can never develop into a good pocket passer as a pro. But the odds are very strongly against his doing so.

 

Beyond that, I can't think of a whole lot to add to this discussion that I haven't already written. If I don't respond to your or others' follow-on posts when it seems like I should be responding, it's because I've run out of new things to say.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I agree that Hogan played well. In fact, his play reminded me a little of this guy.

 

As for the discussion about the kinds of QB prospects we should be looking for: I agree it's possible for a college prospect to succeed as a pro even if he doesn't fit my profile. But I don't want to throw that profile out the window; because it produces correct predictions much more often than not. I'm very concerned about the idea of looking on physical tools as a substitute for proven pocket passing at the college level. I'm not saying that a questionable college pocket passer can never develop into a good pocket passer as a pro. But the odds are very strongly against his doing so.

 

Beyond that, I can't think of a whole lot to add to this discussion that I haven't already written. If I don't respond to your or others' follow-on posts when it seems like I should be responding, it's because I've run out of new things to say.

And if we just don't agree on your definition of a "questionable college pocket passer," then it's just not a description worth having.

 

I know you're a big fan of Kurt Warner. What was his college scouting report?

[Kemp2Warlick]

John Kryk ‏@JohnKryk2m

.... TJ Graham told me Manuel struggled in the wind (and cold) midweek, but slowly adjusted to it. Smart move by Marrone

[John from Riverside]

OK.....I feel like I need to say this.....

 

This board is so fricken bi polar......if EJ has a horrible game we should be looking for his replacement with our first round pick....if he plays well (and yes to all the people trying to cover their collective butts last week for going off the deep end....EJ Manuel DID play well) then people start making all this references to great QB's.

 

EJ is a work in progress...that is what he is.....even in the good performance I still caught things he did that need to be cleaned up (like running away from pressure that was not there on occasion and poor footwork) but I see ENOUGH good things in EJ to think that if he can show improvemement every week then he COULD be the answer.

 

Lets keep in mind that EJ did this with TJ Graham (who I still think is a horrible receiver) and Goodwin (who is already better then TJ) as his starting receiivers AND we couldnt run the ball hardly at all yesterday.

 

I think what we need to do is stop thinking about drafting his replacement (which isnt gonna happen) and start thinking about who in this draft can actually help the TEAM get better.

 

- This team needs a difference making TE....a guy that can catch a poorly thrown ball....stay on his feet....and get more yardage...a guy that wont juggle a ball with a DB draped all over him and would be a nightmare for a LB to cover. THOSE type of Tight Ends are a young QB's best friend because they know that if they put the ball anywhere close to them they are gonna come down with it.......it also pulls the 8th defender out of the box in the running game. ALSO this TE needs to be able to block which is something Chandler is not good at. I am NOT saying dont resign Chandler...who is a great red zone guy....I want to be able to run two TE sets when we want to knuckle down and play smash mouth run the football if we are going to keep Hacket.

 

- We need to upgrade our LG position....Legurzksi has been doing an admirable job...and honestly has been pretty good in pass protection....BUT if we want to play smashmouth we need a monster to line up next to Cordy Glen so we can run the ball against 8 man fronts.

 

- I honestly like our defense as is.....would really like to find a way to keep Byrd.

 

- And honestly it would not hurt to draft another QB......just not in the first. A third round guy to groom? Thad Lewis has done a pretty good job also.

 

To me this needs to be a draft focused on offense.....give EJ more weapons.....better run blocking......love the way he spread it out on Sunday.

[Kemp2Warlick]

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Passer rating: 111.6

QBR: 76.6

Briefly: Fitzpatrick completed a career-high 79 percent of his passes (22 of 28) Thursday night against the Colts. In his career, however, Fitzpatrick's teams are 3-4 when he completes at least 70 percent of his passes.

 

EJ Manuel

Passer rating: 121.9

QBR: 76.2

Briefly: Manuel completed eight consecutive passes against the Jets' blitz, including two for touchdowns of 43 and 34 yards.

[YoloinOhio]

OK.....I feel like I need to say this.....

 

This board is so fricken bi polar......if EJ has a horrible game we should be looking for his replacement with our first round pick....if he plays well (and yes to all the people trying to cover their collective butts last week for going off the deep end....EJ Manuel DID play well) then people start making all this references to great QB's.

 

EJ is a work in progress...that is what he is.....even in the good performance I still caught things he did that need to be cleaned up (like running away from pressure that was not there on occasion and poor footwork) but I see ENOUGH good things in EJ to think that if he can show improvemement every week then he COULD be the answer.

 

Lets keep in mind that EJ did this with TJ Graham (who I still think is a horrible receiver) and Goodwin (who is already better then TJ) as his starting receiivers AND we couldnt run the ball hardly at all yesterday.

 

I think what we need to do is stop thinking about drafting his replacement (which isnt gonna happen) and start thinking about who in this draft can actually help the TEAM get better.

 

- This team needs a difference making TE....a guy that can catch a poorly thrown ball....stay on his feet....and get more yardage...a guy that wont juggle a ball with a DB draped all over him and would be a nightmare for a LB to cover. THOSE type of Tight Ends are a young QB's best friend because they know that if they put the ball anywhere close to them they are gonna come down with it.......it also pulls the 8th defender out of the box in the running game. ALSO this TE needs to be able to block which is something Chandler is not good at. I am NOT saying dont resign Chandler...who is a great red zone guy....I want to be able to run two TE sets when we want to knuckle down and play smash mouth run the football if we are going to keep Hacket.

 

- We need to upgrade our LG position....Legurzksi has been doing an admirable job...and honestly has been pretty good in pass protection....BUT if we want to play smashmouth we need a monster to line up next to Cordy Glen so we can run the ball against 8 man fronts.

 

- I honestly like our defense as is.....would really like to find a way to keep Byrd.

 

- And honestly it would not hurt to draft another QB......just not in the first. A third round guy to groom? Thad Lewis has done a pretty good job also.

 

To me this needs to be a draft focused on offense.....give EJ more weapons.....better run blocking......love the way he spread it out on Sunday.

Could not agree more with this statement. While I understand the collective fan base's lack of patience after all these years, they aren't going to waste a top pick on another QB and they shouldn't. Continue to provide the one you have with weapons/support to be successful instead of continually starting over!

[zow2]

EJ showed enough yesterday to prove to naysayers that he does have the tools to be the guy in Buffalo. I don't think people were ready to run him out of town. The fan base just wanted to see something...a couple long passes and completions, some awareness, ball security, leadership, solid completion %....I think we saw all of that so collectively people now feel better about EJ long term.

[Cash]

 

John Kryk ‏@JohnKryk2m

.... TJ Graham told me Manuel struggled in the wind (and cold) midweek, but slowly adjusted to it. Smart move by Marrone

 

Nice! This reminds me of my completely rational and justified hatred of Dick Jauron's coaching style. He would famously ALWAYS practice indoors unless the weather was ideal. When he talked about that policy, his rationale was basically along the lines of, "the poor weather will prevent us from effectively working on what we need to work on." But, as most of us fans pointed out at the time, if you can't practice it in bad weather, how will you be able to execute it during a game in bad weather? In other words, what's the point of crisp, clean practices if you know the game will be played under harsh conditions? Much better to practice in those same conditions and find out exactly what you can and can't do. Maybe even -- gasp -- adjust to those conditions? The worst of it was, Jauron always seemed stunned when the wind/rain/snow screwed up the offense. Quotes along the lines of, "we had a great week of practice, but we couldn't really move the ball through the air in this weather." So frustrating.

 

Sorry for the rant, but I still haven't gotten over it. I don't know if Marrone is the guy yet, but at the very least, he seems to get basic concepts like this and learn from his mistakes, which Jauron never did.

[GunnerBill]

Probably the wrong place to mention it but I really liked Marrone's post game press conference when he was asked about Coach Pet beating the Jets and Rex Ryan and whether it was significant and his answer was "listen we intend to be here for a long time, the Jets are in our division, beating the Jets is something we better be good at."

[Boatdrinks]

At what point does this become a crusade? Unlike most crusades you're respectful and bring thought to the conversation (which I appreciate even if I disagree with much of what you're saying ) but it's beginning to look crusade-like at this point.

It's a crusade. Some of us only care about the Bills winning, and though we will criticize the Bills when it is clear that they deserve it, we WANT them to be right. Not blind loyalty where poor decisions are praised or excused, but we hope they make the right decisions and win as a result. Whatever those decisions may be. Others are only concerned about being right, explaining away successes and positive developments, and saying "I told you so" when the Bills are wrong. In the search for a franchise QB, it is far more likely that ANY draft pick will be a disappointment or a failure than a franchise type player or even less likely a top 75 all time QB. I have my doubts about EJM, but I hope the Bills got it right and he defies the odds. If not, the Bills will move on to the next guy as an NFL team is in the business of winning games. When satisfaction is gleaned not from the success of the Bills QB, but from the success of a specific QB, or "my guy" then it is clearly a crusade to be correct. EJM still has a long ways to go, and may never achieve franchise status. No amount or crusading from fans will have any impact on this nor accelerate the Bills timetable on him. I hope they were correct. Their track record in the draft post Polian (by far the Bills best GM and one of the top NFL personnel men ever) leaves room for strong reservations. Time will tell...

[John from Riverside]

Another thing about Manuel which I like...he seems to have the physical tools to be a good cold weather QB

[K-9]

It's a crusade. Some of us only care about the Bills winning, and though we will criticize the Bills when it is clear that they deserve it, we WANT them to be right. Not blind loyalty where poor decisions are praised or excused, but we hope they make the right decisions and win as a result. Whatever those decisions may be. Others are only concerned about being right, explaining away successes and positive developments, and saying "I told you so" when the Bills are wrong. In the search for a franchise QB, it is far more likely that ANY draft pick will be a disappointment or a failure than a franchise type player or even less likely a top 75 all time QB. I have my doubts about EJM, but I hope the Bills got it right and he defies the odds. If not, the Bills will move on to the next guy as an NFL team is in the business of winning games. When satisfaction is gleaned not from the success of the Bills QB, but from the success of a specific QB, or "my guy" then it is clearly a crusade to be correct. EJM still has a long ways to go, and may never achieve franchise status. No amount or crusading from fans will have any impact on this nor accelerate the Bills timetable on him. I hope they were correct. Their track record in the draft post Polian (by far the Bills best GM and one of the top NFL personnel men ever) leaves room for strong reservations. Time will tell...

 

Rest assured, if EJ doesn't pan out, they will have no compunction about moving on to the "next guy." But you don't do that until he's had the benefit of experience and pro coaching. Especially when half his training camp and rookie season was lost due to injury.

 

It is beyond idiotic to be demanding the Bills jettison their plans for EJ after 7 games because he doesn't fit some non-existent standard of "successful pocket passer in college" or other such nonsense like "lack of mental bandwidth" simply because he's not the second coming of Peyton Manning in his rookie year.

 

His physical gifts cannot be ignored. Nor can his leadership and other intangibles, which have been on display for his entire college career as well as his first 7 games in the pros.

 

EJ has shown, in microcosm, an ability to learn from past situations in games as several of his second half performances suggest as well as his ability to learn from past games against the same team like against the Jest yesterday. This demonstrates the mental "bandwidth" we need to see. I see no reason why this trend can't continue if he stays healthy and focused.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thebandit27]

Rest assured, if EJ doesn't pan out, they will have no compunction about moving on to the "next guy." But you don't do that until he's had the benefit of experience and pro coaching. Especially when half his training camp and rookie season was lost due to injury.

 

It is beyond idiotic to be demanding the Bills jettison their plans for EJ after 7 games because he doesn't fit some non-existent standard of "successful pocket passer in college" or other such nonsense like "lack of mental bandwidth" simply because he's not the second coming of Peyton Manning in his rookie year.

 

His physical gifts cannot be ignored. Nor can his leadership and other intangibles, which have been on display for his entire college career as well as his first 7 games in the pros.

 

EJ has shown, in microcosm, an ability to learn from past situations in games as several of his second half performances suggest as well as his ability to learn from past games against the same team like against the Jest yesterday. This demonstrates the mental "bandwidth" we need to see. I see no reason why this trend can't continue if he stays healthy and focused.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

This is a big one for me...I was VERY interested to see how EJ would play in his first NFL start against an opponent that he faced before, and it was even more intriguing given the success the Jets had against him in week 3.

 

The kid passed with flying colors; I can't think of one thing I wanted to see out of him that he didn't show yesterday.

 

Does that make him a franchise QB? Not by a long shot. All it does is confirm what many of us have said for the past 2 months: the kid's got the ability; he just needs time to grow.

[NickelCity]

Ok I've waited until the rabble has subsided a bit. I only got to watch the second half. This undoubtedly has an impact on my takeaways.

 

My thoughts - the first two series I watched were a series of poor throws and frustrating check downs. This bummed me out. Then there was the two-play 80-some yard drive. Great ball to Marquise.

 

The throws I keep looking for are the 10-20 yard completions (and NOT of the fade route/jump ball variety). These are the most important throws in the NFL imo. The throw to Chandler in the 4th was the best pass I saw EJ complete yesterday. He floated one to him earlier that was nearly a completion (during this one I actually yelled aloud "yes! he actually threw past the 1st down marker!!"...but then the ball hung up there and chandler got a bit goofy).

 

We all hope EJ is the guy. When he starts hitting throws that aren't bombs/fades (man were we lucky on that first TD to TJ), and are more than 8ish yards, I'll be a very happy camper. I'm cautiously optimistic right now...