Mario Williams...Fact or Fiction...

[dezertbill]

I really thought that the game vs. Carolina would be a watershed moment for Mario.

 

Yet, it seems he's gone back to being just ordinary.

 

1 game Vs. Carolina, he had 5 tackles, 1 Asst, and 4.5 sacks.

 

3 Games vs. NE, NYJ, Bal. he has had 3 tackles, 3 Assts, and 1 sack total.

 

Averaging a tackle and assist per game and a registering a sack every couple of games is a headscratcher for a guy who had to have known coming into this season that he had to up his production

 

Bills need Mario to start becoming a weekly force in the backfield, especially with Buffalo's secondary on the mend.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I thought we traded Marrio

[26CornerBlitz]

I thought we traded Marrio

 

Skelton is backing up Kaepernick now, but I'm sure you already knew.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Even if 4.5 in one game is abnormal, what pass rusher doesn't get their sacks in bunches by preying against a weak opponent? Is there a guy out there who consistently gets one every game?

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Fact? Wait, no fiction. Wait....fact?

[PaattMaann]

Even when Mario has not been getting sacks, he has been getting pressure and push at the point of attack in the run game - I think Mario has done well...his sacks will come, and when they do, he can dominate a game (carolina)

[It's in My Blood]

Mario consistently draws double teams, freeing up other pass rushers and has gotten great pressure on the opposing quarterback all year.

 

Sacks are a nice stat, but pressuring the qb is more important, imo.

 

OT- Just saw on ESPN ticker that Donte Whitner is planning to change his last name to "Hitner"...lol

Edited October 3, 2013 by It's in My Blood

[Gugny]

There's 6 teams in the NFL with more sacks than the Bills. There's 21 teams in the NFL with less sacks than the Bills. Mario has 5.5 sacks in 4 games. As nice as I think those stats are, they're a tiny piece of the puzzle.

 

The defensive UNIT has played well enough to give the Bills a chance to win each of the four games they've played. That's what matters most, in my opinion. And it's also my belief that, if Mario was absent for those four games, the level of success the defense has had would be significantly lower.

[PaattMaann]

There's 6 teams in the NFL with more sacks than the Bills. There's 21 teams in the NFL with less sacks than the Bills. Mario has 5.5 sacks in 4 games. As nice as I think those stats are, they're a tiny piece of the puzzle.

 

The defensive UNIT has played well enough to give the Bills a chance to win each of the four games they've played. That's what matters most, in my opinion. And it's also my belief that, if Mario was absent for those four games, the level of success the defense has had would be significantly lower.

 

ahhhh, gug is going with the "sum is equal to the parts" argument...classic

 

and true

[K-9]

Watch the games closer.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Chimp]

Even if 4.5 in one game is abnormal, what pass rusher doesn't get their sacks in bunches by preying against a weak opponent? Is there a guy out there who consistently gets one every game?

Go to pro football focus. Mario isn't in the top 15 defensive ends when it comes to percentage of pressure in pass rushing situations. A 100 million dollar defensive end should be on that list, PERIOD.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/02/signature-stats-pass-rushing-productivity/

Edited October 3, 2013 by Chimp

[thebandit27]

Mario is having an excellent season. A good deal of the pressure that Buffalo's defense is generating comes directly from (a) his play on the field and (b) other teams directing a good deal of their blocking scheme to account for him.

 

Many of Pettine's pressure packages are effective because Mario creates opportunities to attack gaps in the OL. When teams try to prevent those gaps from being created, he does what he did against Carolina.

 

Go to pro football focus. Mario isn't in the top 15 defensive ends when it comes to percentage of pressure in pass rushing situations. A 100 million dollar defensive end should be on that list, PERIOD.

 

https://www.profootb...g-productivity/

 

Meanwhile, the two Baltimore rush LBs--Dumerville and Suggs--are on that list, and I'll ask you: who's pass rush was more effective last week when the two teams faced each other?

[Rivermont Mike]

With all due respect to analytics and mathematical models, e.g from PFF....:

 

"The very first PFF Sig Stat, it is a number that tells you who got the most pressure relative to the opportunities they had to get it. It goes beyond using the sack as the be all and end all when it comes to judging the effectiveness of a pass rusher, measuring their total pressure (sacks weighted more heavily than hits or hurries) against how often they rushed the passer. For the mathematically inclined it’s: Sacks + (0.75 x Hits) + (0.75 x Hurries)/ Pass Rushing Snaps x 100 = PRR"

 

...what this model doesn't take into account is the effectiveness of the O-line guy playing across from Williams on any given play. I think that Mario should be producing a lot more, too, but if you're going to hang your hat on analytics be sure that they are looking at the whole picture. Go Bills!

Edited October 3, 2013 by Rivermont Mike

[Chimp]

Meanwhile, the two Baltimore rush LBs--Dumerville and Suggs--are on that list, and I'll ask you: who's pass rush was more effective last week when the two teams faced each other?

 

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, even when it is wrong. Are you implying that Mario Williams was more effective than Suggs in that game? That is pretty astonishing considering Mario had one sack where he chased the QB out of bounds because nothing was open.

 

So I thought I would go back and look at the passing statistics from both teams as just a quick let's see how effective the pass rush was at a basic level. Turns out if you basically multiple the Bills passing numbers by 2.2 you come up with a stat line that is almost identical. Now statistically speaking that may be off, but at a basic level you double everything because Baltimore had 50 passing attempts while Buffalo had 22. You multiply all by 2.2 and the sacks, interceptions, yards, touchdowns are all virtually the same.

 

With all due respect to analytics and mathematical models, e.g from PFF....:

 

"The very first PFF Sig Stat, it is a number that tells you who got the most pressure relative to the opportunities they had to get it. It goes beyond using the sack as the be all and end all when it comes to judging the effectiveness of a pass rusher, measuring their total pressure (sacks weighted more heavily than hits or hurries) against how often they rushed the passer. For the mathematically inclined it’s: Sacks + (0.75 x Hits) + (0.75 x Hurries)/ Pass Rushing Snaps x 100 = PRR"

 

...what this model doesn't take into account is the effectiveness of the O-line guy playing across from Williams on any given play. I think that Mario should be producing a lot more, too, but if you're going to hang your hat on analytics be sure that they are looking at the whole picture. Go Bills!

 

We can revisit this at the end of the year and you can eat your hat. If I am wrong then I'll eat mine.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Chimp

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Fact? Wait, no fiction. Wait....fact?

Wait .... assumption?

 

you forgot one

[Gugny]

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, even when it is wrong. Are you implying that Mario Williams was more effective than Suggs in that game? That is pretty astonishing considering Mario had one sack where he chased the QB out of bounds because nothing was open.

Are you implying that our defense held Baltimore to 3/16 third down conversions, got 5 INTs and pretty much won the game after our offense went anemic in the 2nd half .... and that Mario Williams had nothing to do with those things?

[cvanvol]

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, even when it is wrong. Are you implying that Mario Williams was more effective than Suggs in that game? That is pretty astonishing considering Mario had one sack where he chased the QB out of bounds because nothing was open.

 

 

 

We can revisit this at the end of the year and you can eat your hat. If I am wrong then I'll eat mine.

 

 

You already are wrong. Mario has been pushing the line back each and every game, he has been incredibly effective. When he hasnt been he has drawn double teams and even fought some of those off for pressures leading to other guys getting sacks.

 

Also if you didnt notive both of our interior lineman are on the top 15 list for their position and if you dont think that is directly related to Mario drawing two blockers you are crazy.

 

 

Also notice how Ngata isnt on that list with baltimore and realize that is helping to free up dumervil and suggs. Both defenses have great pass rushers and teams are forced to choose who they want to let beat them for baltimore they choose to double Ngata and have the outside guys beat them for us they double mario and allow Dareus and Kyle to beat them.

Edited October 3, 2013 by cvanvol

[C.Biscuit97]

There's 6 teams in the NFL with more sacks than the Bills. There's 21 teams in the NFL with less sacks than the Bills. Mario has 5.5 sacks in 4 games. As nice as I think those stats are, they're a tiny piece of the puzzle.

 

The defensive UNIT has played well enough to give the Bills a chance to win each of the four games they've played. That's what matters most, in my opinion. And it's also my belief that, if Mario was absent for those four games, the level of success the defense has had would be significantly lower.

 

Good post and the fact that some fans can even complain about the 2nd leading sacker in the NFL is hilarious. The problem with some fans is they don't see the whole game. For some fans, sacks is the only statistic that matters. But what if the player draws a penalty? A hold in some cases maybe better than a sack. Also, is Mario drawing double teams to free up other guys? Did he force a QB to throw earlier than he wanted that result in an INT?

 

MMQB came up with a great pass rush formula. http://mmqb.si.com/2013/09/19/nfl-sacks-pressures/ This was from 2 weeks ago and I can't find an updated version. But seriously, you are complaining about the 2nd leader sacker in the NFL!

 

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, even when it is wrong. Are you implying that Mario Williams was more effective than Suggs in that game? That is pretty astonishing considering Mario had one sack where he chased the QB out of bounds because nothing was open.

 

So I thought I would go back and look at the passing statistics from both teams as just a quick let's see how effective the pass rush was at a basic level. Turns out if you basically multiple the Bills passing numbers by 2.2 you come up with a stat line that is almost identical. Now statistically speaking that may be off, but at a basic level you double everything because Baltimore had 50 passing attempts while Buffalo had 22. You multiply all by 2.2 and the sacks, interceptions, yards, touchdowns are all virtually the same.

 

 

 

We can revisit this at the end of the year and you can eat your hat. If I am wrong then I'll eat mine.

 

Yet, the Bills playing without their top 4 defensive backs, forced 5 INTs against the defending champs. MW deserves no credit for that.

[Chimp]

You already are wrong. Mario has been pushing the line back each and every game, he has been incredibly effective. When he hasnt been he has drawn double teams and even fought some of those off for pressures leading to other guys getting sacks.

 

Also if you didnt notive both of our interior lineman are on the top 15 list for their position and if you dont think that is directly related to Mario drawing two blockers you are crazy.

 

 

Also notice how Ngata isnt on that list with baltimore and realize that is helping to free up dumervil and suggs. Both defenses have great pass rushers and teams are forced to choose who they want to let beat them for baltimore they choose to double Ngata and have the outside guys beat them for us they double mario and allow Dareus and Kyle to beat them.

 

Go ahead and count for me the number of snaps that Mario is double teamed. Got new for you, this is the NFL and moving the LT back does not do much in disrupting an NFL quarterback. There is still a pocket to step into. It only counts if you create a pressure or a sack. Kyle Williams appears on that list in years when he didn't play with Mario Williams and Dareus was supposed to be a powerhouse inside. Most 4-3 tackles are not doubled every play so you should be able to whip a guard often enough to appear on that list.

 

Are you implying that our defense held Baltimore to 3/16 third down conversions, got 5 INTs and pretty much won the game after our offense went anemic in the 2nd half .... and that Mario Williams had nothing to do with those things?

 

No, that would be your own overreaction and jumping to conclusions. I simply stated that Mario should be actually producing for what he is being paid.

[cvanvol]

Go ahead and count for me the number of snaps that Mario is double teamed. Got new for you, this is the NFL and moving the LT back does not do much in disrupting an NFL quarterback. There is still a pocket to step into. It only counts if you create a pressure or a sack. Kyle Williams appears on that list in years when he didn't play with Mario Williams and Dareus was supposed to be a powerhouse inside. Most 4-3 tackles are not doubled every play so you should be able to whip a guard often enough to appear on that list.

 

 

 

No, that would be your own overreaction and jumping to conclusions. I simply stated that Mario should be actually producing for what he is being paid.

 

I am not going to count anything for you, this is your opinion go ahead and support it with facts..... Ngata is doubled a lot and if we didnt have mario kyle williams would be doubled a lot but because of marios presence they ant afford to double one of our interior lineman. Read the MMQB analysis. You are way off base here, Mario has been a force this year.