Ron Jaworski's take on EJ (via Mike & Mike)

[Rubes]

Just keep in mind that Russell Wilson didn't pass for more than 160 yards during the first four games of last year. In the fourth, against St. Louis of all teams, he threw three picks and had a QB rating of 45. After five games last year, he had 5 TDs and 6 INTs.

 

Ironically, it was the home game against the Pats* that started the turnaround for him.

 

Nevertheless, although we all want EJ to succeed, and even better to succeed right out of the gate, it's not the way things usually go. Even if he looks pedestrian in the first quarter of the season, we need to be patient. Like others have said, just look for good decision-making and gradual improvement.

[stony]

I love the way Jaws breaks down film, but to be honest, his track record on predicting either the success or failure of NFL QBs is nothing to crow about. If they simply gave him a show to only break down film and explain what went right/wrong on given plays, that would be his highest and best use.

 

Very true. Love Jaws, but he is limited.

 

What irks me the most about comparing rookie QBs to last years class is that all of a sudden Russel Wilson is spoken as if he carried a 1st round grade all along. Its easy to forget how many of the experts had him below the 3rd round where he was selected.

[hondo in seattle]

It's everybody's track record to be far. That's why I can't stand how much stock some fans put into "experts" opinions. There were a ton of fans who wanted Wilson last year and he lasted until the 3rd. At the same time, there were a lot of fans who wanted Clausen and a lot of experts thought he was a 1st rounder.

 

Yup. My friend is a huge FSU fan and he never knew about the cancer thing until after the season.

 

It's all about probabilities. Jaws and Kiper and other so-called experts in the media study more film and talk to more coaches than we fans do. The probability of them being right about a player is therefore a little higher than ours. NFL scouting staffs study even more film, talk to even more people, and therefore have an even higher probability of predicting the success of a player. But even they are wrong a high percentage of the time. A guy with a comparatively high success rate - Bill Walsh - was famously wrong about Trent Edwards.

 

So it is fair to say that no one knows if EJ will be successful. That's why I'm so excited to begin the season. I want to know - with my own eyes - what we have with him.

Edited September 6, 2013 by hondo in seattle

[Billshank Redemption]

Just keep in mind that Russell Wilson didn't pass for more than 160 yards during the first four games of last year. In the fourth, against St. Louis of all teams, he threw three picks and had a QB rating of 45. After five games last year, he had 5 TDs and 6 INTs.

 

Ironically, it was the home game against the Pats* that started the turnaround for him.

 

Nevertheless, although we all want EJ to succeed, and even better to succeed right out of the gate, it's not the way things usually go. Even if he looks pedestrian in the first quarter of the season, we need to be patient. Like others have said, just look for good decision-making and gradual improvement.

 

And in all honesty, I would way rather him turn it up down the stretch. Its been since about 2007 since we have seen a remotely important game in December. I wouldn't mind just hanging around at least.

[Kelly the Dog]

Very true. Love Jaws, but he is limited.

 

What irks me the most about comparing rookie QBs to last years class is that all of a sudden Russel Wilson is spoken as if he carried a 1st round grade all along. Its easy to forget how many of the experts had him below the 3rd round where he was selected.

Russell Wilson had a top of the first round grade on virtually everything -- except height. That was the ONLY reason he was projected as a third or fourth rounder. On everything else, he was right up there with Luck and RG3. His height never affected him in college, but all of the pro scouts and GMs, just assumed it would affect him in the pros, even Seattle's. Turns out it didn't affect him in the pros either. He should be spoken about as a 1st round grade all along. What he shouldn't be compared to is any other 2nd or 3rd round rookie.

[Buftex]

I love the way Jaws breaks down film, but to be honest, his track record on predicting either the success or failure of NFL QBs is nothing to crow about. If they simply gave him a show to only break down film and explain what went right/wrong on given plays, that would be his highest and best use.

Yeah...Jaws pretty will every once in a while say something "controversial" about a QB (that is part of his ESPN contractual obligation I am sure) but usually he really is just using a lot of words to say very little...with authority! He lost some credibitly, IMO, when he started taking pay to work with certain young guys...he will hype them up as the "next big thing", but says little when they just turn into the "next big bust"....

[John from Riverside]

They covered up the Big Ben in his first year as well....that worked out fine.

 

As a matter of fact...character issues aside I see a LOT of similarities between these two QBs coming into the league.

[Buftex]

Russell Wilson had a top of the first round grade on virtually everything -- except height. That was the ONLY reason he was projected as a third or fourth rounder. On everything else, he was right up there with Luck and RG3. His height never affected him in college, but all of the pro scouts and GMs, just assumed it would affect him in the pros, even Seattle's. Turns out it didn't affect him in the pros either. He should be spoken about as a 1st round grade all along. What he shouldn't be compared to is any other 2nd or 3rd round rookie.

 

But lets face it...that is one of the biggest factors in the outdated model that so many of the "experts" use to grade these guys.

[bananathumb]

_{My only concern about EJ Manuel is injury. IF he survives the year injury-free, I have no doubt he will be very good. But that is a big IF.}

[Dorkington]

I like the kid a lot, but I'm going to keep my expectations to JP Losman/Trent Edwards levels, so I don't get burned. At the very least he's a new face, so it'll be exciting for a year or two no matter how he does.

[atlbillsfan1975]

The rookies last year didn't do it all on their own. Wilson, who I would compare EJ to, had a great defense and running game to help him. The Bills will need to be the same way and not put it all on EJ's shoulders.

I actually made that same comparison yesterday when a co-worker asked me how is EJ. I think EJ has the same type of game as Wilson has. EJ can run, but he can throw better. I also believe EJ has the same type of leadership and the 'it' factor Wilson has.

The Bills do not have the same D...yet. But i did not think that greatly of Seattles D until last year either. they where good in 2011, but once the got a good O, the D became great.

[John from Riverside]

I do worry a little bit that Marrone might lean on him a little TOO much.....and that is not the thing to do with a rookie QB.......

 

Run the ball....a LOT......take some shots deep but dont get pass happy......dont ask him to run too much

[Doc]

I actually made that same comparison yesterday when a co-worker asked me how is EJ. I think EJ has the same type of game as Wilson has. EJ can run, but he can throw better. I also believe EJ has the same type of leadership and the 'it' factor Wilson has.

The Bills do not have the same D...yet. But i did not think that greatly of Seattles D until last year either. they where good in 2011, but once the got a good O, the D became great.

Gilmore's injury and Byrd's holdout and ongoing PF problem will hamper the defense for the first month or so. When Gilmore returns, things should improve, although I suspect Byrd will still be dealing with PF.

[Kelly the Dog]

But lets face it...that is one of the biggest factors in the outdated model that so many of the "experts" use to grade these guys.

I don't think so. I don't really think any of the other short guys who have come into this league in the last ten years could do it. Wilson, to me, is a total aberration for several reasons. First, he has an absolute cannon for an arm. Few of the short guys have had even good arms. Second, he has very long arms and big hands. That helps offset perhaps an inch or two of his height issues, especially when combined with the fact he has a very good throwing motion, directly over his head. Most smaller guys wind up to some degree, and a lot of the taller guys don't throw with near as good a motion as Wilson does. Third, he had huge linemen at Wisconsin, as big or bigger than pro guys, and he was always able to find throwing lanes anyway. He's great at that, too, so he didn't get many passes batted down and was able to see WRs downfield when other short guys have trouble with that.

 

Combine that with being very, very smart, a terrific leader, pretty fast and elusive, a great runner and scrambler and real accuracy while throwing on the run, and good pocket presence and quick release and you can see why there is no one else like him.

[Bill from EP]

#only time will tell

 

No one will truly know what EJ is capable of until he hits the field and gets the groove of things a few weeks into the season. I'm not expecting a playoff run this year but I'm excited ( finally) for things to come

[C.Biscuit97]

I do worry a little bit that Marrone might lean on him a little TOO much.....and that is not the thing to do with a rookie QB.......

 

Run the ball....a LOT......take some shots deep but dont get pass happy......dont ask him to run too much

 

So far, we haven't seen that. In fact, threads have been started complaining about the Bills "babying" EJ. But IMO, that is exactly the way you handle a rookie QB. Be conservative and careful at first and starting feeding them more as the season goes along. I think the Bills are going to lean on the run and Marrone showed this at Cuse. Unlike Gailey, it SEEMS like Marrone is intent on getting the ball in his best player's hands. And as of right now, that's Spiller far and away.

[Kelly the Dog]

So far, we haven't seen that. In fact, threads have been started complaining about the Bills "babying" EJ. But IMO, that is exactly the way you handle a rookie QB. Be conservative and careful at first and starting feeding them more as the season goes along. I think the Bills are going to lean on the run and Marrone showed this at Cuse. Unlike Gailey, it SEEMS like Marrone is intent on getting the ball in his best player's hands. And as of right now, that's Spiller far and away.

Agreed, but also take your shots. One thing that has been so very frustrating over a couple years is Spiller going deep and beating his man repeatedly only to have a terrible long ball thrown to him. EJ can throw it deep. I think we're going to see a mostly conservative game plan out of the Bills, but I also expect Hackett to have a few tricks up his sleeve.

 

I don't expect great play and 30 points, although I think the Bills have scored 30 or more against the Pats in 4 of the last 6 games (mostly because the Pats scored at will and we had to get in a shootout with them). But I'm excited to see how Marrone, Hackett and EJ get Spiller, Freddie, Stevie and the new fast guys the ball.

 

And I do know, that a few of the short balls that EJ threw in his preseason series were actually calls for long balls, he just didn't take them (whether or not they were there to be had I don't know).

 

It's on like a mofo in about 48 hours.

[JPS]

I think the general point is that there is some talent on the Bills and it's not a bad situation for a QB to come into. Plus, the AFC East might be the worst division in the NFL. That could help.

I hadn't thought of that. How could it not help? Even the Patriots aren't the same team as they were.

[Fan in San Diego]

I like Jaws' but let's be honest. He has no idea. None of the "experts" do. It's a complete crapshoot. Jaws fawned over Losman. So I have no idea how well EJ is going to translate. But I do know that this guy is a package of stuff we haven't seen since Kelly. He has the size of Bledsoe. The mobility of Flutie. He has the arm of Losman. He has the leadership skills of Fitz.

 

As others have said, Russell Wilson was very average the 1st half of the season. On paper going into both of their rookie years, you could argue that the Bills might have a slightly more talented roster than the Seahawks last year. But the Hawks have great coaching (especially on D) and allowed Wilson to grow into the role. IMO, this season is on the defense. Let Manuel grow into the role.

 

I'd also like to say that the most underrated part of Manuel is the fact he had to play last season with his mother going through cancer treatments. I can't imagine that at my age, let alone a 21 yo playing QB for a championship caliber team. Here's to finally finding Jim Kelly's replacement.

 

I like how you said that. Lets hope he lights it up on Sunday.

[K-9]

Just keep in mind that Russell Wilson didn't pass for more than 160 yards during the first four games of last year. In the fourth, against St. Louis of all teams, he threw three picks and had a QB rating of 45. After five games last year, he had 5 TDs and 6 INTs.

 

Ironically, it was the home game against the Pats* that started the turnaround for him.

 

Nevertheless, although we all want EJ to succeed, and even better to succeed right out of the gate, it's not the way things usually go. Even if he looks pedestrian in the first quarter of the season, we need to be patient. Like others have said, just look for good decision-making and gradual improvement.

 

Great points all around.

 

We forget how close Carroll came to benching Wilson last season, he was struggling so bad. I am still surprised he was able to turn it around that fast as a rookie. As were most people.

 

Patience is indeed the key. I wish I had more faith that the majority of this community will remember that when EJ looks every bit the part of a raw rookie QB.

 

GO BILLS!!!