Nitro Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Premium round (1st thru 3rd) draft picks. 2005 - Charlie frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene. 2006- Vince Young, Mat Leinhart, Kellen CLemens, Charile Whitehurst, Bradie Croyle. 2007 - JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards. 2008 - Brian Bohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O'Connell. 2009- Pat White. 2010 - Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy. Drafting a franchise QB is a minefield. Misses are greater than hits. The Bills, unfortunately, are stuck with a 7th rounder in Fitzpatrick. The prospects of landing a quality and difference making QB are remote. On average there are 2 that meet this standard. Unless management has a change in philospohy ala Washington and making a big trade in the draft, they will be chasing aftere ghosts in trying to get a franchise QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Your right it is hit and miss, however your post lacks subjectivity.......wheres the other qbs that are doing good.I.E Andy Dalton. Joe Flacco, Russel Wilson etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nasty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I would rather be chasing ghosts and give me some kind of hope other than placing all my hope in Fitz. I like Fitz but he is no franchise QB, he would be a great mentor and teacher for our QB of the future. Not saying we have to trade our draft away but we have too much talent on this team now and they just need a leader they can believe in. You can tell when they are on the field that they aren't playing all out for Fitz and it is sad, but I think Fitz plateaued and we have nobody on the bench to step in with any future on the team. I say no matter what we draft the best QB available this year where we pick. The only way I would trade up would be to use this draft and this draft only to move up, not giving away any of our future first rounders. Look at what the Dolphins got at 8, they got Tannehill and he was questioned when he was chosen but he proved critic wrong I think, also look at the Vickings I think they got ponder early before us last year and he is a very productive starter with an upside, that is something we don't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 3 certainly isnt premium. 2 is worthy of debate I guess. Atleast until pick 35-40ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffalothruMyVeins Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 also look at the Vickings... Are you talking about the Eagles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Clausen could be had in a trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Clausen could be had in a trade. Not worth it. There is a reason why he fell so far in the draft and also why the Panthers drafted Newton instead of handing the reigns to Clausen. CBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeHateMe Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You won't get a Franchise QB until you draft one... teams don't trade them unless there is an injury uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazed and Amuzed Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You won't get a Franchise QB until you draft one... teams don't trade them unless there is an injury uncertainty. ehh it happens sometimes though. Matt Schaub is an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrhody Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You conveniently left out half of the QBs who are starting in the NFL who were drafted in rounds 1-3 over the past decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Endless Ike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If you're serious about drafting a QB it has to be in the first round...Obviously there are no hard and fast rules, but as hard as it is to find a starting QB its that much harder to find one outside the 1st round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffBill Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) Your right it is hit and miss, however your post lacks subjectivity.......wheres the other qbs that are doing good.I.E Andy Dalton. Joe Flacco, Russel Wilson etc.... Alot of people make posts on here and only include the info that makes them look smart? You could make a post and list just the QBs that have turned out to be successes and say it always works too. You just happened to leave Aaron Rodgers, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Jay Cutler and Alex Smith just to name some of them that were also drafted in the first 3 rounds in the same time frame, and most of these have taken their team to the playoffs at least once. Bottom line, if you don't try, you will never get the franchise QB that you need to win. Edited October 26, 2012 by BuffBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrhody Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I decided to do a little research and look at every QB drafted in the first round over the last 15 years (43 in total). I broke them into four categories in order to evaluate them (Great, Above Average, Below Average, Bust). You can check out how I ranked them below. I used my best guess on the guys that are less than 3 years out but I tried to do it as objectively as possible. This is what I came up with overall: 16.3% great 30.2% above average 30.2% below average 23.3% bust If you look at just QBs drafted in the top 10 (26 in total): 19.2% great 30.8% above average 26.9% below average 23.1% bust So essentially it looks like you have pretty much exactly a 50% chance of getting something good out of drafting a QB in the top 10. Surprisingly, the odds dont drop off too much for the entire first round (46.5%). The Bills are 0/1 in the past 15 years on drafting guys in the first round, they really haven't taken too many chances. Odds are the next one will work out, right? The potential first round picks in this years draft are: M Barkely (USC) G Smith (WV) T Wilson (ARK) L Jones (OU) Gotta get one of the first 2 in my option.. here's to hoping we do. Here's my research: QBs Drafted 1998 - P Manning (1), R Leaf (2) 1999 - T Couch (1), D McNabb (2), Ak Smith (3), D Culpepper (11), C McNown (12) 2000 - C Pennington (18) 2001 - M Vick (1) 2002 - D Carr (1), J Harrington (3), P Ramsey (32) 2003 - C Palmer (1), B Leftwich (7), K Boller (19) , R Grossman (22) 2004 - E Manning (1), P Rivers (4), B Roethlisberger (11), JP Losman (22) 2005 - A Smith (1), A Rodgers (24), J Campbell (25) 2006 - V Young (3), M Leinart (10), J Cutler (11) 2007 - J Russell (1), B Quinn (22) 2008 - M Ryan (3), J Flacco (18) 2009 - M Stafford (1), M Sanchez (5), J Freeman (17) 2010 - S Bradford (1), T Tebow (25) 2011 - C Newton (1), J Locker (8), B Gabbert (10), C Ponder (12) 2012 - A Luck (1), R Griffin (2), R Tannehill (8), B Weeden (22) Great (7) P Manning, E Manning, P Rivers, B Roethlisberger, A Rodgers, M Ryan, A Luck Above Average (13) D McNabb, D Culpepper, C Pennington, M Vick, C Palmer, A Smith, J Cutler, J Flacco, M Stafford, C Newton, J Locker, C Ponder, R Griffin Below Average (13) D Carr, B Leftwich, R Grossman, J Campbell, V Young, B Quinn, M Sanchez, J Freeman, S Bradford, T Tebow, B Gabbert, R Tannehill, B Weeden Bust (10) R Leaf, T Couch, Ak Smith, C McNown, J Harrington, P Ramsey, K Boller, JP Losman, M Leinart, J Russell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sounds like a reasonable analysis, although I think you'll see a bit of disagreement with your subjective categorizations. I would have liked to see a fifth category, "Average", since there are a number of guys you put in "Above Average" that I think are generous, such as Culpepper, Pennington, Locker, and Ponder. But yeah, a 50% hit rate isn't that bad, all things considered. Part of it also has to do with guys who were drafted in the first round who probably shouldn't have been (Losman, Tebow, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanofFredJackson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I pity anyone who gets drafted to the inept Buffalose Bill's organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrhody Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yea you're probably right. I just wanted to have a clear split one way or another. I think Culpepper and Pennington are closer to above average than they are to below average. They were good starters in the league for multiple years. With the new guys I just used what we've seen so far but I agree that there isn't much evidence to support either way. I think no matter what.. we definitely need to spend a first round pick on a QB this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 I could have included all the QBs that are successful but the point was here are a bunch of fellows who were thought of being QBs of the future. I want the Bills to draft a better than average QB. Last year was the best chance to land a quality QB for the future. I was hoping they would land Ponder. This next draft is a must to get new talent under center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutmost Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Lots of names missing but you definitely can't forget when the Bills step out in the 1st round and trade up for JP Losman.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 (edited) Lots of names missing but you definitely can't forget when the Bills step out in the 1st round and trade up for JP Losman.. I liked the move at the time. We needed a franchise QB and he seemed to fit the requirements to be sucessful in Buffalo. Sadly, I think that trade has served as a reminder to the Bills FO why you dont trade up to draft a QB CBF Edited October 26, 2012 by Canadian_Bills_Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You conveniently left out half of the QBs who are starting in the NFL who were drafted in rounds 1-3 over the past decade. This. The OP is highly misleading You also need to remember Nearly ALL franchise QBs were very highly drafted. It's very rare and the exception to find one late in the draft Gotta do your homework and roll the dice and hope you pick correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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