Bills don't throw downfield myth...

[NoSaint]

 

 

That's basically where my head is at. Just throw one a time or two a game to make them think about it. The whole "OH WE DONT THROW 30 AND COMPLETE 20 OF THEM MEANS WE SUCK" argument just falls on deaf ears to me, though. Utilize the talents that you have, it's not like we're hurting on yards per play averages.

 

i think if you look at the random sample i listed, if we can atleast push to the 15-20 throws range, and hopefully have about 5 or so of those successful (complete, or PI called).... It will help avoid the debacle of the second half of last year. obviously more would be great, but I dont know that we have the speed outside or the qb to really be in that top tier of downfield throwing. i think our happy place is just below that in the "keep em honest" group like an alex smith for instance.

 

Space is good, but you have to earn it in the NFL. The spread creates it naturally sideline to sideline but long term we need a little more vertical, in my opinion.

Edited September 20, 2012 by NoSaint

[Turbosrrgood]

These types of stats are ridiculous and meaningless IMO. Especially coming from unconfirmed, third party websites.

 

Even so, a much better stat would be completions down field.

 

Bottom line is, arbitrary stats aside, if you watch the games you'd realize the Bills are not a down field passing team. There are reasons for this, the most obvious is the lack of deep threat WR's and deep balls are not Fitz's strong suit.

[Kelly the Dog]

I think the issue is really the arbitrary "20 yard" parameter that the stat site assigned to designate "downfield." Fitz has a decent arm and not a strong one. The Bills spread the field horizontally. The deep patterns are more of the 20 yard variety mostly because the line couldnt hold pass blocks and the WRs didn't have great speed. So the Bills ran a lot of plays in the 20-25 yard range. That completely distorted those stats because most fans think in terms of deep passes and fly patterns and bombs as "going downfield". We didn't have a ton of them and we didn't complete a lot of them.

 

If you consider a 20-25 yard pass going downfield, sure we did that quite a bit. If you consider a 25-50 yard pass going downfield we didn't do that all that much compared to other teams.

Edited September 20, 2012 by Kelly the Dog

[NoSaint]

I think the issue is really the arbitrary "20 yard" parameter that the stat site assigned to designate "downfield." Fitz has a decent arm and not a strong one. The Bills spread the field horizontally. The deep patterns are more of the 20 yard variety mostly because the line couldnt hold pass blocks and the WRs didn't have great speed. So the Bills ran a lot of plays in the 20-25 yard range. That completely distorted those stats because most fans think in terms of deep passes and fly patterns and bombs as "going downfield". We didn't have a ton of them and we didn't complete a lot of them.

 

If you consider a 20-25 yard pass going downfield, sure we did that quite a bit. If you consider a 25-50 yard pass going downfield we didn't do that all that much compared to other teams.

 

I think the issue is really the arbitrary "20 yard" parameter that the stat site assigned to designate "downfield." Fitz has a decent arm and not a strong one. The Bills spread the field horizontally. The deep patterns are more of the 20 yard variety mostly because the line couldnt hold pass blocks and the WRs didn't have great speed. So the Bills ran a lot of plays in the 20-25 yard range. That completely distorted those stats because most fans think in terms of deep passes and fly patterns and bombs as "going downfield". We didn't have a ton of them and we didn't complete a lot of them.

<p>If you consider a 20-25 yard pass going downfield, sure we did that quite a bit. If you consider a 25-50 yard pass going downfield we didn't do that all that much compared to other teams

 

Ill agree with that. We seemed to have a bit heavier spread around the 20 yard mark.

 

I think we do a good job pushing the defense sideline to sideline which makes the box they must defend wider on any given snap.it also opens up the run game. last year between the line, our WRs, fitzs arm -- it makes a lot of sense that we wouldnt stretch the field effectively. i think we just needed to take a few more shots to help extend that box a to a deeper space to remain consistent for a full season. what happens when you dont have the players to do that? Well, like last season you get stuck either taking high risk low reward throws, or the defense starts creeping in. no good. hopefully a healthy jones, adding graham, the line being in one piece will all help this year manage that part of the field more effectively.

 

power running teams need to be able to keep a defense honest deep to make that box they defend larger. we didnt have the bodies to do that. we had to spread the field wide to be effective, as its quicker and safer. i think thats why you saw chan as a "pass happy guy running the spread."

Edited September 20, 2012 by NoSaint

[Dorkington]

i think if you look at the random sample i listed, if we can atleast push to the 15-20 throws range, and hopefully have about 5 or so of those successful (complete, or PI called).... It will help avoid the debacle of the second half of last year. obviously more would be great, but I dont know that we have the speed outside or the qb to really be in that top tier of downfield throwing. i think our happy place is just below that in the "keep em honest" group like an alex smith for instance.

 

Space is good, but you have to earn it in the NFL. The spread creates it naturally sideline to sideline but long term we need a little more vertical, in my opinion.

 

That's all fine and dandy, but how are we going to do that with our current personnel? Wasting downs on inaccurate deep passes and/or accurate deep passes but the WR can't get separation seems stupid to me.

[NoSaint]

 

 

That's all fine and dandy, but how are we going to do that with our current personnel? Wasting downs on inaccurate deep passes and/or accurate deep passes but the WR can't get separation seems stupid to me.

 

 

a few things:

 

with jones healthy, and adding graham we have more speed

 

with a healthy and improved line we are going to have more time for plays to develop

 

a better line gives fitz better mechanics in those long developing throws, if he has a pocket

 

and sometimes, we dont like to hear it, but the answer is we struggle for a season til we get better personnel. our offense just isnt as talented as most of the "good ones" yet.

 

also, throwing an extra 5-10 of those balls in a season wont cripple us as long as they arent picks. spiller also emerging as a HR threat is a new dynamic, as effective as he and Freddie were last year - it was never a take it to the house situation on any given play they touched it like it was the last two weeks.

 

its not a simple answer.

Edited September 20, 2012 by NoSaint

[Dorkington]

I guess I'm just under the impression that every play is important, and I don't see us completing very many deep balls (Jones isn't that fast, or talented, and TJ is kind of small, and Fitz isn't accurate on deep stuff), so I don't see why we would do it other than to distract the defense once or twice a game, and focus on gaining yards with the rest of our plays.

 

Maybe when we replace Fitz with a big armed guy, and get a legit deep threat WR, I'd agree on the "we should throw it deep more" front, but for now, I don't think I can be convinced otherwise.

[FreakPop]

a few things:

 

with jones healthy, and adding graham we have more speed

 

with a healthy and improved line we are going to have more time for plays to develop

 

a better line gives fitz better mechanics in those long developing throws, if he has a pocket

 

and sometimes, we dont like to hear it, but the answer is we struggle for a season til we get better personnel. our offense just isnt as talented as most of the "good ones" yet.

 

also, throwing an extra 5-10 of those balls in a season wont cripple us as long as they arent picks. spiller also emerging as a HR threat is a new dynamic, as effective as he and Freddie were last year - it was never a take it to the house situation on any given play they touched it like it was the last two weeks.

 

its not a simple answer.

 

ahh, but i'm seeing that you have the answers to everything. Either you are or were a former college D1 or NFL head coach and really do know more than the rest of us or you simply stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[NoSaint]

 

 

ahh, but i'm seeing that you have the answers to everything. Either you are or were a former college D1 or NFL head coach and really do know more than the rest of us or you simply stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

 

quite the contrary, i dont have a great answer on this one besides keep adding talent, and hopefully take advantage of the talent we added between last year and this. i think that ive kind of understood what chan was dealing with, and how well he disguised weaknesses last year. hopefully we keep chipping away at spots that were lacking and it continues to open things up. i dont think last years scheme was Chans favorite, but i think it was about the best he could have come up with given the pieces we were putting together.

 

that might not be enough to make things ideal, but it helps.

Edited September 20, 2012 by NoSaint

[HeHateMe]

It's not a myth.

[The Voice of Truth]

I keep hearing how the Bills "never throw downfield". This however, is a myth. Per game charters with either Pro Football Focus or Pro Football Outsiders(can't remember which one), the Bills threw downfield 12th most in the NFL last year. The definition of throwing downfield was a pass that travelled over 20 yards in the air.

 

Food for thought, so this myth can stop...

One thing that was a huge breath of fresh air when Fitz took over for Trent was he would actually throw downfield. I would get so frustrated with Trent never taking a shot and making the D cover the whole field. He would go in and throw 2 4-yard passes, one would be incomplete and they would run one down for 3 yards. Time to punt.

 

I'll take Fitz's style of play over Trent's easily. He takes shots when necessary.

[John from Riverside]

Fitz's problem isn't THROWING the ball downfiels, it's COMPLETING them downfield.

 

 

Actually.....Surf is right here.

[Dopey]

another poster really bad at this interwebs thingy

 

link or it didnt happen

So, if a tree fall in the woods...

I wanna see the link that says "link or it didn't happen"!!! Show me !!!

Poster wrote"Per game charters with either Pro Football Focus or Pro Football Outsiders(can't remember which one)," Look it up or move on, you don't have to billeve it. Geez. By the way, I didn't spell believe properly.

Edited September 20, 2012 by Dopey

[NoSaint]

 

One thing that was a huge breath of fresh air when Fitz took over for Trent was he would actually throw downfield. I would get so frustrated with Trent never taking a shot and making the D cover the whole field. He would go in and throw 2 4-yard passes, one would be incomplete and they would run one down for 3 yards. Time to punt.

 

I'll take Fitz's style of play over Trent's easily. He takes shots when necessary.

 

He's definitely better about getting to the middle range. Trent didn't even do that by the end.

[K-9]

One thing that was a huge breath of fresh air when Fitz took over for Trent was he would actually throw downfield. I would get so frustrated with Trent never taking a shot and making the D cover the whole field. He would go in and throw 2 4-yard passes, one would be incomplete and they would run one down for 3 yards. Time to punt.

 

I'll take Fitz's style of play over Trent's easily. He takes shots when necessary.

 

As anyone who has watched since Gailey gave Fitz the reigns should be able to attest. I am not surprised at all that the Bills would be 12th in the league in 'long ball' pass attempts (again, long ball being defined by PFF or PFO as a ball that travels 20 yards or more in the air) when he has a green light to go long to any wideout (X or Z) that he reads as single coverage. He checked into that play numerous times last season alone.

 

Fitz has and always will take his shots down field. What he very SELDOM does is take deep shots downfield in the MIDDLE of the field, just like most teams. And for good reason.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[billsfan89]

Week 2 we didn't have to throw down field. No need to force it down field when you are running it like crazy and the short passes were there. Fitz can throw down field when we were 5-2 last year we were a top offense in the NFL tons of big plays down field. Overall when Spiller is killing it why throw deep.

[NoSaint]

Week 2 we didn't have to throw down field. No need to force it down field when you are running it like crazy and the short passes were there. Fitz can throw down field when we were 5-2 last year we were a top offense in the NFL tons of big plays down field. Overall when Spiller is killing it why throw deep.

Depends what you'd call downfield, and it certainly was not consistent even then.

 

The eagles game really has a stat that hangs with me as he completed only one pass that flew ten yards. Couple that with the two losses being less than Impressive and we are looking at a weird split to make sense of in those 7. That offense had its red flags and worries last year, even at week 7

 

I'd be happy to have those weeks back again, don't get me wrong, but there were signs of trouble being discussed too. He was taking more of those shots though if memory does serve.

Edited September 20, 2012 by NoSaint

[Alphadawg7]

I keep hearing how the Bills "never throw downfield". This however, is a myth. Per game charters with either Pro Football Focus or Pro Football Outsiders(can't remember which one), the Bills threw downfield 12th most in the NFL last year. The definition of throwing downfield was a pass that travelled over 20 yards in the air.

 

Food for thought, so this myth can stop...

 

The myth isnt that we don't throw down field...in the fact the only myth is that there is a myth we dont throw down field. What everyone says is we cant throw down field. Chan and his pass happy offense will make attempts, but we don't have the QB nor the WR's that can be effective at it. I could go out there and throw down field 100% of the time, but I promise I won't complete much even though I would lead the NFL in down field throws. So who cares how often we did it, what is important is can we effectively pull it off...the answer is not right now.

Edited September 20, 2012 by Alphadawg7

[K-9]

A little food for thought from an article in August, 2011. I'm not surprised at the low number of times teams attempt the deep pass. I am surprised at the relatively high completion percentage rate. I thought it would be much lower for QBs who led the league in deep ball percentage.

 

There are a ton of things these stats don't take into consideration so I wouldn't read that much into them.

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/10/going-deep/

 

GO BILLS!!!

[NoSaint]

A little food for thought from an article in August, 2011. I'm not surprised at the low number of times teams attempt the deep pass. I am surprised at the relatively high completion percentage rate. I thought it would be much lower for QBs who led the league in deep ball percentage.

 

There are a ton of things these stats don't take into consideration so I wouldn't read that much into them.

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/10/going-deep/

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

thanks for the post though - as long as you dont get tooo caught up in it, its still interesting info.

 

id think if they did the same chart for 30+ (or there about) you would see the dropoff you expected. I think like you referenced before, fitz especially works those 20-25 routes that still have some variety in them, the next level is the straight go routes and i think they probably fall quick unless you are throwing to megatron consistently.