NewEra Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 1337325466[/url]' post='2469607']Only two teams, the Colts and Texans, are without win totals. Below are the full odds, courtesy of 5Dimes. * * * ARIZONA CARDINALS Over 7.5 (-130) Under 7.5 (-110) ATLANTA FALCONS Over 8.5 (-175) Under 8.5 (+135) BALTIMORE RAVENS Over 10.5 (+115) Under 10.5 (-155) BUFFALO BILLS Over 6.5 (-140) Under 6.5 (+100) CAROLINA PANTHERS Over 8.5 (+100) Under 8.5 (-140) CHICAGO BEARS Over 8.5 (-165) Under 8.5 (+125) CINCINNATI BENGALS Over 7.5 (-165) Under 7.5 (+125) CLEVELAND BROWNS Over 6.5 (-130) Under 6.5 (-110) DALLAS COWBOYS Over 8.5 (-160) Under 8.5 (+120) DENVER BRONCOS Over 7.5 (+125) Under 7.5 (-165) DETROIT LIONS Over 8.5 (-165) Under 8.5 (+125) GREEN BAY PACKERS Over 12.5 (+160) Under 12.5 (-210) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Over 6.5 (-120) Under 6.5 (-120) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Over 8.5 (-160) Under 8.5 (+120) MIAMI DOLPHINS Over 8.5 (-195) Under 8.5 (+155) MINNESOTA VIKINGS Over 7.5 (-120) Under 7.5 (-120) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Over 11.5 (-150) Under 11.5 (+110) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Over 11.5 (-120) Under 11.5 (-120) NEW YORK GIANTS Over 10.5 (+100) Under 10.5 (-140) NEW YORK JETS Over 9.5 (+120) Under 9.5 (-160) OAKLAND RAIDERS Over 7.5 (-120) Under 7.5 (-120) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Over 9.5 (-160) Under 9.5 (+120) PITTSBURGH STEELERS Over 9.5 (-230) Under 9.5 (+170) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Over 9.5 (-125) Under 9.5 (-115) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Over 10.5 (+120) Under 10.5 (-160) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Over 6.5 (-195) Under 6.5 (+155) ST. LOUIS RAMS Over 6.5 (-130) Under 6.5 (-110) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Over 6.5 (-160) Under 6.5 (+120) TENNESSEE TITANS Over 8.5 (+110) Under 8.5 (-150) WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 6.5 (-125) Under 6.5 (-115) Where did you find these odds? Miami at under 8.5 is +155 while the over is -195?? One of the worst lines ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 if you put down $140 on +6.5 wins and buffalo wins 7 or more games, you win $100 AND you get your $140 back for a total of $240. if you put down $100 on -6.5 wins and buffalo wins 6 or less games, you win $100 AND you get your $100 back for a total of $200. This is exactly right, which makes it even more puzzling- these oddsmakers actually think the Bills have a better chance of finishing with 6 wins than 7 wins. Where did you find these odds? Miami at under 8.5 is +155 while the over is -195?? One of the worst lines ever. Exactly. Why wouldn't they just make it 7.5 with even odds? It doesn't make any sense. I use sportsbetting.com and you would never see these type of shenanigans on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 1337338357[/url]' post='2469632']Hey man, you're out there. Can you look into this for me? Might have to ask you to -- er -- "assist" with a little wager. Sure thing. This is the busiest weekend of the year for me, so I probably won't be able to do any research until Tuesday. I'd love to help out with a wager 1337318071[/url]' post='2469589']I'm sorry to disagree with you guys, but the odds posted in Vegas are for the week one games in which the Jets are favored by 5.5 and the over/under is 42.5. Here's a handy Wikipedia link that explains the over/under pretty well. http://en.wikipedia....wiki/Over-under The only future odds that I know of beyond week one are for AFC, NFC, and Super Bowl championships. Currently, btw, the Bills are 50/1 for the SB. While I'm at it, here's another link that carries most of the Vegas sports book odds. You can expect to see some very different numbers once the preseason starts. http://www.vegasinsi...ds/las%2Dvegas/ All depends on which sports book you look at. I bet the bills to win the SB at 85-1 last week at the Wynn. $400 to win $34,000. The bet wasnt placed to collect 34,000, but to hedge against them if/when they make the playoffs. A playoff birth will yield at least a $6,000 gain. Most books have it at 40 or 50-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 So, if someone put down $700 on the Bills to win 7 or more games, and the Bills do, they would only get back $500 for a total of $1200. If they put down $700 on the Bills to lose 6 or less, and the Bills do, they would get $700 and $700 back for a total of $1400. The point I ask is, the original poster said Vegas isn't favoring the Bills(maybe because they set the game total at 6.5). But the pay out is bigger for putting the same amount of money down on them losing less than 6. Doesn't that mean Vegas thinks the Bills will win 7+, therefore they are in fact favoring the Bills to do well? Crayonz? Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloaggie Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 So, if someone put down $700 on the Bills to win 7 or more games, and the Bills do, they would only get back $500 for a total of $1200. If they put down $700 on the Bills to lose 6 or less, and the Bills do, they would get $700 and $700 back for a total of $1400. The point I ask is, the original poster said Vegas isn't favoring the Bills(maybe because they set the game total at 6.5). But the pay out is bigger for putting the same amount of money down on them losing less than 6. Doesn't that mean Vegas thinks the Bills will win 7+, therefore they are in fact favoring the Bills to do well? They have their built in margin. If more people bet the over, which is what Vegas is anticipating, then they could stand to lose money. Say 1000 people bet $140 on the Bills over...Vegas pays 100,000 out of their pocket plus the original bet, if the Bills win 7 or more Say only 500 people bet $100 on the Bills under...Vegas takes in 50,000 If the Bills win 6 or under in the above scenario, Vegas collects $140,000 and pays out $50,000, so it depends on how many bet each side before saying what Vegas is rooting for. Vegas is hoping the even money bet would tempt the gambler and the 140 to win 100 would scare the average gambler. They will adjust the over/under based on the betting action, so get your bets in now to capitalize on the 6 1/2 number, because I'd see this line going up to 7 1/2 or higher. Plus, I would think Vegas would collect interest on the money they are holding while the bet is active for four plus months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Where did you find these odds? Miami at under 8.5 is +155 while the over is -195?? One of the worst lines ever. Yeah, that just looks foolish -- I'd expect the moneylines to be reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 They have their built in margin. If more people bet the over, which is what Vegas is anticipating, then they could stand to lose money. Say 1000 people bet $140 on the Bills over...Vegas pays 100,000 out of their pocket plus the original bet, if the Bills win 7 or more Say only 500 people bet $100 on the Bills under...Vegas takes in 50,000 If the Bills win 6 or under in the above scenario, Vegas collects $140,000 and pays out $50,000, so it depends on how many bet each side before saying what Vegas is rooting for. Vegas is hoping the even money bet would tempt the gambler and the 140 to win 100 would scare the average gambler. They will adjust the over/under based on the betting action, so get your bets in now to capitalize on the 6 1/2 number, because I'd see this line going up to 7 1/2 or higher. Plus, I would think Vegas would collect interest on the money they are holding while the bet is active for four plus months. Thanks, thats what I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Where did you find these odds? Miami at under 8.5 is +155 while the over is -195?? One of the worst lines ever. google "5dimes" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'm not a betting man. But I'm tempted to make an exception this year when I hear the Vegas odds-makers have the Bills over/under at 6.5. Apparently, there's not a lot of optimism for the Bills outside of Buffalo. I am not betting man, either, but geepers we should pool our money and all get on board and stick it to them and then rub it in when we get paid. "Ah yes, that's right: The Stadium Wall, $50,000 on the Bills." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 (edited) This is exactly right, which makes it even more puzzling- these oddsmakers actually think the Bills have a better chance of finishing with 6 wins than 7 wins. Exactly. Why wouldn't they just make it 7.5 with even odds? It doesn't make any sense. I use sportsbetting.com and you would never see these type of shenanigans on there. the difference in the "moneyline" is the "vig"....this is how the bookie makes their money. it's probably easier to explain in a straight bet first. most straight bets are 11 to 10 odds. meaning you give vegas $110 to win $100, if you win the bet you get back $210. lets say the bills are 3 point favorites against an opponent. so, in a perfect world vegas wants to collect or have wagers placed on both teams for the same exact amount of money. say they collect $11 million on each team for a total of $22 million. they will pay out $10 million plus the original $11 mil for a total of $21 mil to the winner. they collected $22 mil and paid out $21 mil and will profit $1 mil NO MATTER WHO WINS. if action on one team gets lopsided, that is when they change the spread to influence money towards the other team, with the goal of having the same exact money bet on both teams. same theory applies to the over under bets for total wins, except there is no plus or minus 3 points to even things out. so they use a money line where the "vig" (bookies profit) is derived by the difference in the money spread of 140 to 100 and 100 to 100. if they made it even odds , no matter the outcome, there would be no "vig. in your sportsbetting.com scenario you probably need to lay $120 to win $100. Edited May 18, 2012 by papazoid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 It is curious, though. Believe it or not, the Bills were favored over the Jets in week 9 last season by 2.5 points. Why is that hard to believe? If you switched the location of that game we'd have been 3.5 dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong here but to place a bet on the Bills winning more than 6.5 games you'd have to put down $140 and you'd only get back $100. But if they are under 6.5 games its $100 for $100. So you'd basically be betting more money(if you think they'll win more than 6.5), but getting less than double your money back. Doesn't that mean they think we'll win more than 6.5 games which is why your return isn't as great? As I said, I'm not a betting man. You and Papazoid helped clarify things for me so thanks. Given that I have to bet $140 just to win $100 for the "over" it seems more bettors are expecting more than 6.5 wins than think less. It turns out to not be such a great bet after all. But it wouldn't have surprised me that the betting nation underestimated the Bills this year. We haven't been over .500 in a looong time and unless you follow the Bills or NFL very closely, I doubt if the expectation for this year would be high either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Seems likely that the Bills will do better that 6 wins. I'd put a quarter on this. Hell I'd put a dollar on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 As I said, I'm not a betting man. You and Papazoid helped clarify things for me so thanks. Given that I have to bet $140 just to win $100 for the "over" it seems more bettors are expecting more than 6.5 wins than think less. It turns out to not be such a great bet after all. But it wouldn't have surprised me that the betting nation underestimated the Bills this year. We haven't been over .500 in a looong time and unless you follow the Bills or NFL very closely, I doubt if the expectation for this year would be high either. Just as an update, this from Bill Barnwell on Grantland..contained in an post about line movements The biggest move, though, belongs to the Bills; they've shifted all the way from over 7.0 wins at even money to over 7.5 wins at a whopping -160. They could hit a total of eight wins very shortly, and will likely do so before the season begins. Best get your bets in boys if you like the over..rest of story http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8172893/checking-vegas-super-bowl-contenders-ncaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Bet the farm on the Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Just as an update, this from Bill Barnwell on Grantland..contained in an post about line movements The biggest move, though, belongs to the Bills; they've shifted all the way from over 7.0 wins at even money to over 7.5 wins at a whopping -160. They could hit a total of eight wins very shortly, and will likely do so before the season begins. Best get your bets in boys if you like the over..rest of story http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8172893/checking-vegas-super-bowl-contenders-ncaa Yep, the sharps are all over the Bills (and Bears). I was able to make a small wager on o/7 at -150 about a month ago. Just for fun of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Miamah @ 8.5?? WTF? I'll make that wager on the Bills for the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 (edited) I'm sorry to disagree with you guys, but the odds posted in Vegas are for the week one games in which the Jets are favored by 5.5 and the over/under is 42.5. Here's a handy Wikipedia link that explains the over/under pretty well. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-under The only future odds that I know of beyond week one are for AFC, NFC, and Super Bowl championships. Currently, btw, the Bills are 50/1 for the SB. While I'm at it, here's another link that carries most of the Vegas sports book odds. You can expect to see some very different numbers once the preseason starts. http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las%2Dvegas/ You just doubled down on silly and not reading before typing. These are over/under on wins for the season, dude, and yes, they do exist. Edited July 20, 2012 by BobChalmers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 You just doubled down on silly and not reading before typing. These are over/under on wins for the season, dude, and yes, they do exist. My bad. BTW- Jets have dropped to 4 point favorites for week one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luxy312 Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 I looked at the over/under for wins for the season just last week at the Green Valley Ranch (just outside of Vegas) and was surprised to see the Bills sitting at 6.5 while the Dolphins were at 7.5. I get that the Dolphins had the best defense in the division last year. That's not disputed. They allowed 121 less points than the Bills on the season. That's over a touchdown a game less than the Bills. However, they've completely turned over their coaching staff; they lost their best player in Brandon Marshall; they have major quarterback issues; and they're starting a brand new defensive scheme. I would parlay the Bills for the Over and the Dolphins for the Under here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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