BillsObserver Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Decided to watch this past week's Panthers vs Redskins game for a few different reasons but mostly to see if the Redskins were any good. The first thing I heard from most people after their loss to the Panthers was - "they lost to the Panthers, they must suck!" I had to see for myself.. so here's what I observed.. John Beck is better than Rex Grossman. He is a pretty mobile quarterback so he's a dual threat, something Grossman wasn't. They love rolling him out. He reminded me of Jake Plummer at times, a guy who can throw on the run and create first downs with his scrambling. Before his injury, Tim Hightower was really effective. He is the best of the 3 backs they have so the Bills got a bit lucky that he's gone for the year because he was carving that Panthers D up before his injury. Yes, I am aware that the Panthers D isn't very good (secondary is surprisingly good but 2 big injuries to their LB core have really hurt them against the run). Without Hightower, I don't think the Redskins run game will be as effective. Torain and Helu aren't bad but I don't think they're the game changing back that Hightower can be. Losing Santana Moss will also hurt them a bit as he made a few plays in the first half. Their #1 target from that point was Jabar Gaffney (remember him?). Beck was looking for Gaffney constantly until about the 2nd half when he finally opened up the pass game and targeted Fred Davis quite a bit. Gaffney actually got open quite a bit until the Panthers decided to double him. Fred Davis is a very good Tight End. He's 3rd in the league in receiving yards among tight ends. Beck and Davis seemed to develop some chemistry as the game went on. They have 2 other receivers that caught a few balls, #18 Terrence Austin and Anthony Armstrong, both smaller/quicker type receivers. Neither is much of a threat. Bills need to focus on Davis and Gaffney. Beck looks his worst when you bring the blitz, especially on 3rd downs. He tends to hold on the ball 1 second too long and the Panthers made him pay for it a few times causing a fumble and a few sacks. When you don't bring the blitz and give Beck some time, he's actually pretty good (I guess that goes for most QBs). Beck found open guys quite a bit in the 2nd half when the Panthers weren't bringing the heat. So the key for us, bring guys and get through - something we've struggled with recently. Beck was really shaky at the beginning of the game (nerves?) and threw a ball that should have been picked off and took a sack and fumbled on the same drive. Get to him early and you might create a turnover. Once he settled in, which I would say happened somewhere in the middle of the 2nd quarter, he was actually pretty effective. But the Redskins run, run, run that ball until they have to throw. This is what scares me a bit - they had some longer drives that ended poorly because of either stupid penalties (god, this game was ridiculous with the flags) or a turnover. If they clean that up, the Bills will need to counter with long drives of their own. As for their D - potentially losing Fletcher (hamstring) will hurt them as this guy was all over the field and making plays despite being 867 years old. Here's the story with their D - you can run on them but they bring GOOD pressure on passing plays with a 4 man front. Orakpo is really imposing. Kerrigan is actually pretty damn good for a rookie. I didn't think much of him at the draft but I can admit I was wrong, he is able to get consistent pressure. The Bills will have to rely on Fitzpatricks quick reads on passing downs because the 'Skins brought a lot of pressure and cracked Newton a few times. I was shocked when Orakpo came in clean on one passing play and absolutely smashed Newton from his blind side and then Newton just got up like nothing happened. Any other QB would have been hurt from this play. Then again, Newton is almost as big as Orakpo. Bills will need to run Fred and occasionally throw Spiller in there because the Panthers really ran the ball well with their 2 smaller, quicker backs (Stewart/Williams). I'm not saying Spiller should start or anything but he needs to get involved in the run game. His quickness will help get him through those edge rushers. I have total faith that Fred will also get his yards too. The Redskins will get pressure with our offensive line currently out of sorts. So I hope we see a steady dose of the run game and if the Bills can get ahead and force the Redskins to play from behind, I like our chances. But if they get pass happy and we see the Fitz from 2 weeks ago, this game will be much closer than people expect. So basically, if you saw the score of the Panthers/Redskins game and dismissed the Redskins because of it, you shouldn't totally count them out. Newton was just too damn good in the second half, throwing the ball with tremendous confidence and they ran the ball really well. But the 'Skins were never really out of it. Turnovers, settling for field goals and penalties set them back many times. Once Beck got in the groove, he was moving the offense down the field. And I'm not saying our D is worse than the Panthers, I just don't like our D as much when Kyle Williams isn't out there. One other side note - Cam Newton and Steve Smith are a hell of a combo. Smith looks absolutely rejuvenated out there. Newton was putting the ball only where Smith could get it and Smith was making every catch possible. Super impressive. Newton started off slow, was really inaccurate at first and relied more on his feet but at some point his confidence kicked in and he was throwing that ball around looking like an elite passer. The Panthers gave the Packers and the Saints a hell of a fight. If they can shore up their D, they will be an immediate contender because of Newton's playmaking ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r00tabaga Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 John Beck is 0-6 as an NFL starter. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt in KC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Rock on! Thanks for the breakdown. I haven't been able to see the Skins yet this year, so I really appreciate the intell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 (edited) Beck looked good as a rookie all things considered. He fell victim to the ego maniac parcels house cleaning. I'd feel a lot better about this game if it were at the ralph. Bills are 0&3 in Toronto. They always seem to turn up flat there. Based on wilsons comments today we can see the players don't look forward to it. I'd give a slight edge to the "visiting" team in terms of home/away, and give hem 1.5 point advantage in this category (ie 1/2th normal home team advantage ) Edited October 27, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsObserver Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 John Beck is 0-6 as an NFL starter. Period. I understand he's 0-6 but 5 of those losses came in 2007 when he was a ROOKIE with the Dolphins. Kid didn't even have a chance back then. He's a much better QB compared to that time. Period. Rock on! Thanks for the breakdown. I haven't been able to see the Skins yet this year, so I really appreciate the intell. Thank you. Aside from the penalties (which I was able to skip thanks to the Game Pass 10 second fast forward feature), the game was actually pretty damn interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thanks Fitzbeardy. I stopped by your place just to add to the traffic a bit. If I leave the window open after I'm done reading does that make the numbers look any better? Nice write up. In truth, there aren't that many easy weeks in an NFL season. I wonder what the reaction will be here if the Redskins make us sweat till the last seconds. Actually I know what the reaction will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice post thx. Im a skins hater for sure. I think Kelsay and Moats have big days sunday along with Terrence dominating gaffney and co. Glad to put Merriman experiment behind us, get faster and quicker to the QB. Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsObserver Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thanks Fitzbeardy. I stopped by your place just to add to the traffic a bit. If I leave the window open after I'm done reading does that make the numbers look any better? Nice write up. In truth, there aren't that many easy weeks in an NFL season. I wonder what the reaction will be here if the Redskins make us sweat till the last seconds. Actually I know what the reaction will be. Thank you SJ. Means a lot! Any additional traffic is always helpful. I do believe because of our injuries (most notably Kyle Williams) that this game could be closer than we'd like. Throw in the fact that it's basically in a neutral site and that our line is being shuffled around, it doesn't seem like a 7 point game. Believe me, I'd love it if the Bills hammered them. If this game was at the Ralph, I'd feel much better about it. I think the bye week will be a big advantage for us. Gailey will have a good gameplan. We were really sharp coming off the bye last season. The guys should be ready! GO BILLS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Great writing as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r00tabaga Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Rex torched us a few years ago when he was a Bear. We put the Smack Down on Beck when he played us as a Dolphin in Buffalo. I like the QB matchup especially w/o Moss, Cooley and Hightower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Not sure if it has already been said but Beck has had only 1 TD pass as a starter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So... when Beck doesn't see pressure, he's good. We don't bring pressure. Their running backs aren't that great. But we have no run defense, or pass defense. They can get pressure, and our offensive line is in shambles, plus we don't throw deep. This is a game we are going to be favored, but possibly lose, like against the Bengals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So... when Beck doesn't see pressure, he's good. We don't bring pressure. Their running backs aren't that great. But we have no run defense, or pass defense. They can get pressure, and our offensive line is in shambles, plus we don't throw deep. This is a game we are going to be favored, but possibly lose, like against the Bengals. And don't forget... Beck is 0-6 as a starter, but The Bills are 0-3 in Tore-on-toe. Shanana is winless in the great white north, but so is Chan the man. The esteemed effete upper crust of the "adopted" hometown have a greater affinity to the Skins than they do The Bills (according to at least one hack writer), so The Bills will play 9 away games (again) this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flutie Flakes Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Excellent write-up and analysis Fitzbeardy! Thank you! GO BILLS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VirginiaMike Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice assessment. Living in Skins land I get to see them some when they aren't on opposite the Bills and hear about them alot. Beck is better than Grossman and will only get a little better as time goes on. What I saw this past week was that he thru alot of passes on timing regardless of anything which will mean that if we can fool him with coverage, we will be able to pick off some passes. We do need to watch out for the tight end as we don't have a great track record stopping tight ends and Davis is their best option. Cooley is out which will help, which will help. We have to run the ball. The Skins pass rush is real and if we have to pass because we have alot of third and long we will be in trouble. Finally, all the talk here is that this game is "critical" to the Skins season and they will play like it. Discussions are that Shanahan's autonomy is on the line if he has another bad season. The Skins are not a great team, but they will be able to beat the Bills if they get ahead of them early. The Bills have to take the lead in the 1st half and make th skins come back. If that happens, I see a couple of picks happening and a Bills victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 A couple of comments - Their TE Fred scares the crap out of me because still have not shown the ablity to cover a TE.....and he is GOOD. - Beck has a tendency to lock onto receivers pre snap and throw the ball no matter what.....I am really glad that we got MgGee back for this game - Moates needs to have a big day.....Beck looks flat aweful when he is getting pressured but when you give him time he finds the open guy....he is also mobile so the bills really need to account for that....its not like he is Vick or anything but still can move around - Our offense compareed to the Newton led offense are totally differnet animals and this is a good thing because what the Redskins really do have are guys who can get after the quarterback....Karrigan is what we WANTED Kelsay to be...Orkapo is good.....they have other guys as well......but the fact that our offense does not hold onto the ball should slow them down a bit......we MUST run the ball on a team that is missing London Fletcher. - One other thing I noticed. Orakpo is a sucker for biting too far inside on plays that are misdirection to his side....really gotta take advantage of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 So... when Beck doesn't see pressure, he's good. We don't bring pressure. Their running backs aren't that great. But we have no run defense, or pass defense. They can get pressure, and our offensive line is in shambles, plus we don't throw deep. This is a game we are going to be favored, but possibly lose, like against the Bengals. Someone please talk him off the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I actually think we have been a lot better in the run stop game.......I dont know why people keep saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 They have zero speed at receiver. The main person I'd take away is Fred Davis. Man up on their receivers and make them beat you. Also, don't over pursuit because their run game is set up for the cutbacks. On offense, run the ball at Orkapo. He prefers to chase and not take on blockers. Get physical with Hall because he is as soft as they come. No game in the NFL is a gimme but if the Bilsl don't handle the Skins, then we have no right to be thinking playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cantankerous Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I actually think we have been a lot better in the run stop game.......I dont know why people keep saying that. We actually held Bradshaw to something like 60 yards on 20 carries until late in the game when he broke off a couple big runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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