Wondering about Levi Brown

[yungmack]

True. It is asking a lot of Brown. But when you draft a guy in the 7th round, when every other team passed him up 6 times, you're taking a flyer and everyone including Nix and Gailey knows it. Plus he played at a small school. The fact is, Gailey (and to some extent Nix) were new to the team. They didn't really know what they had in ANY player, veteran or drafted or free agent. Under normal circumstances new coaches coming in wouldn't know, but IMO it was exponential for them because of the pitiful coaching we had before.

 

I have nothing to base this on other than conjecture, but IMO if you asked Gailey which of his four QBs would he want to excel in OTA, training camp and pre-season games, he would have said Brian Brohm, not Trent and not Levi. Because Brohm likely has the highest ceiling. It may not and probably wasnt who he THOUGHT was going to play the best. He likely thought Trent would, and he did. But the best case scenario for the team would be for Brohm to wow them, not Levi.

 

What happened was, Brohm wowed them just enough. Brown didn't shine as much as they hoped. And it still was likely an agonizing decision for them. But once they made it, Levi really wasn't all that important even for the PS (although I still think he is a candidate) because he would be the #2 developmental guy.

 

It's also not an indictment of the scouts, or the draft. Fitz or Trent or Brohm easily could have fallen on their face and Brown would have made the team, and you really wouldn't have been questioning the pick. But they all played reasonably well. So, again, it became a difficult choice, and they made it.

Excellent post.

[Coach Tuesday]

What's the historical probability a 7th round draft pick makes the NFL roster of the team that drafted him? Before you call two cut 7th-rounders "wasted" picks I would think you have that statistical information to back up your assertion the Bills' scouts didn't do their jobs.

 

Again, I am NO expert, but I'd venture a guess that most football personnel men feel that after about the 5th round, the remaining players fall into the same general category. 6th rounder, 7th rounder, UDFA...if you hit on those you've made a real find, and if you don't, it's not a big deal.

 

That's why I (and several others, clearly) believe your point is not "valid."

 

Make the roster OR the practice squad. I don't have the info eball, but I'm guessing it's close to "more often than not." The issue isn't just cutting them - it's cutting bait with them entirely. Calloway before final cutdown day even.

[shrader]

The draft isn't an exact science. One can be the greatest talent evaluator in the NFL and still "miss" on a draft pick - because nobody really knows until the players get to camp. Some perform as expected, some surprise, and some disappoint. Calling out the front office as "wasting" a draft pick and insinuating they didn't do their jobs properly (all done in hindsight no less) - on a 7th round pick (or any round for that matter) - is rediculous. By your logic, the skills of the scouting staffs of every NFL team are suspect - because they all "miss" on draft picks. It's the nature of the process.

 

And there's the one other big possibility that you left out, injury.

[yungmack]

Way back when, early in the new Nix Regime, Buddy said they'd have FOUR QBs in camp. That's what Levi was. Did he have a shot to make the team? Sure. But he wasn't good enough to beat out the other three. And the Bills have too many needs to carry a fourth QB on the PS.

 

The players who were cut that puzzle me are Calloway, who I thought was serviceable as a back-up on a very thin squad, and Chad Jackson, who was essentially replaced with a post-cut FA. And I really have no idea why David Jones made the squad unless it's for Special Teams. He seemed to be one guy who Hardy outplayed.

[Lurker]

You've proven you are.

 

PTR

+1

[Punch]

As an historical example of how difficult it is to find a player taken in the 7th that will contribute significantly to an NFL roster:

 

The Bills' 7th round draft picks during Bill Polian's tenure as GM, 1986-1993

 

1986

 

7 168 Bob Williams -- Penn State

7 178 Mark Pike DE Georgia Tech

7 180 Butch Rolle TE Michigan State

 

1987

7 171 Kerry Porter RB Washington State

 

1988

7 177 Tim Borcky -- Memphis

7 184 Bo Wright -- Alabama

 

1989

7 173 Brian Jordan DB Richmond

7 193 Chris Hale DB USC

 

1990

7 166 Brent Griffith G Minnesota-Duluth

7 170 Brent Collins -- Carson-Newman

7 181 Fred DeRiggi NT Syracuse

 

1991

7 194 Amir Rasul -- Florida A&M

 

1992

7 195 Kurt Schulz DB Eastern Washington

 

1993

7 195 Willie Harris WR Mississippi State

 

------------------------------------------------------------

 

Mark Pike and Kurt Schulz are probably the only valuable players on this list, but to be fair, there are several examples of good players picked in even later rounds than the 7th (Mark Maddox in the 9th in 1991, Marvcus Patton in the 8th and Mike Lodish in the 10th in 1990, Jeff Wright in the 8th and Carlton Bailey in the 9th in 1988, Keith McKellar in the 8th and Howard Ballard in the 11th (!!!) in 1987, etc). But by and large, players picked in the 5th round or later never contribute significantly and it seems to be a leaguewide phenomenon. Does anyone remember Willie Harris? Or what position Amir Rasul played? Even NFL.com isn't sure.

 

FWIW, at one point prior to the 2010 draft NFL.com's Gil Brandt had graded Kyle Calloway as a potential late 1st round pick, which is pretty crazy. For whatever reason he dropped off big time dating back to before Bulaga took over for him at LT in college, but Calloway (and Levi Brown for that matter) pretty much define the type of player to take in the 7th round.

[purple haze]

So, the scouts. It was someone's job to figure that out. I know, I know, seventh round pick, big deal, etc. etc. But to give up on a developmental QB, who they apparently were very high on going into the draft, after one short offseason is just bizarre. I guess he wasn't very good - but don't we pay people to figure that out in advance?

 

Nobody can figure out in advance how a player will perform once they get to the NFL. The scouts watch tape, workouts, talk to coaches and trainers about the player and form an opinion. But it's just an educated opinion. Draft is a crap shoot. Tom Brady was supposedly not athletic enough; he went in the 6th, only got on the field due to an injury and will go down as one of the best QB's to play in the NFL. We all know of first round busts at many positions, but especially QB. It is what it is.

[eball]

Make the roster OR the practice squad. I don't have the info eball, but I'm guessing it's close to "more often than not." The issue isn't just cutting them - it's cutting bait with them entirely. Calloway before final cutdown day even.

I can't decide whether you are dense, or just stubborn. I'd love to hear you present these arguments to a real NFL GM -- I think you'd be laughed out of the room.

 

By the way, 5 out of the 7 filled PS spots are currently filled by players Buffalo either drafted or signed as UDFAs originally. Again, if you're going to make what appear to be ridiculous arguments, why don't you do a little research and tell us how that compares to the league average?

 

Draft recap:

 

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and (1st)6th round draft picks made the final roster.

4th, (2nd)6th round picks on IR

Two 7th round picks cut

 

Four UDFAs made the final roster; three more are on the PS.

 

Again, please tell me how this data reflects a poor job by the scouting department? It appears to me that out of last year's college class, the Bills added NINE new players to the active roster and three more to the PS.

 

I challenge you to present me with the data of which NFL teams did better, and which did worse, if you intend to continue down this path of critiquing the team for not signing two 7th rounders to the PS.

[bigc14120]

Make the roster OR the practice squad. I don't have the info eball, but I'm guessing it's close to "more often than not." The issue isn't just cutting them - it's cutting bait with them entirely. Calloway before final cutdown day even.

I thought they might be sneaking him through by early release to get him to PS, but apparently not.

[tonyd19]

Lets get a little perspective here. Brown is a 7th round pick out of a small school who is a project. 7th round guys get cut all the time, with little fanfare or press. They are 7th round guys for a reason. There are what, maybe 100 NFL quarterbacking jobs available in the world? Have some faith in the coaching staff. Gailey saw the guy up close and personal for over 2 months. If he is or was good enough to be on the team or PS, he will be here. As it looks right now, hew was not good enough to be one of those 100 or so guys, so he is not in the NFL. Maybe Brown is the 120th best QB in the world....Not quite good enough.

Edited September 7, 2010 by tonyd19

[Kelly the Dog]

As an historical example of how difficult it is to find a player taken in the 7th that will contribute significantly to an NFL roster:

 

The Bills' 7th round draft picks during Bill Polian's tenure as GM, 1986-1993

 

1986

 

7 168 Bob Williams -- Penn State

7 178 Mark Pike DE Georgia Tech

7 180 Butch Rolle TE Michigan State

 

1987

7 171 Kerry Porter RB Washington State

 

1988

7 177 Tim Borcky -- Memphis

7 184 Bo Wright -- Alabama

 

1989

7 173 Brian Jordan DB Richmond

7 193 Chris Hale DB USC

 

1990

7 166 Brent Griffith G Minnesota-Duluth

7 170 Brent Collins -- Carson-Newman

7 181 Fred DeRiggi NT Syracuse

 

1991

7 194 Amir Rasul -- Florida A&M

 

1992

7 195 Kurt Schulz DB Eastern Washington

 

1993

7 195 Willie Harris WR Mississippi State

 

------------------------------------------------------------

 

Mark Pike and Kurt Schulz are probably the only valuable players on this list, but to be fair, there are several examples of good players picked in even later rounds than the 7th (Mark Maddox in the 9th in 1991, Marvcus Patton in the 8th and Mike Lodish in the 10th in 1990, Jeff Wright in the 8th and Carlton Bailey in the 9th in 1988, Keith McKellar in the 8th and Howard Ballard in the 11th (!!!) in 1987, etc). But by and large, players picked in the 5th round or later never contribute significantly and it seems to be a leaguewide phenomenon. Does anyone remember Willie Harris? Or what position Amir Rasul played? Even NFL.com isn't sure.

 

FWIW, at one point prior to the 2010 draft NFL.com's Gil Brandt had graded Kyle Calloway as a potential late 1st round pick, which is pretty crazy. For whatever reason he dropped off big time dating back to before Bulaga took over for him at LT in college, but Calloway (and Levi Brown for that matter) pretty much define the type of player to take in the 7th round.

Nice list. For the record, Brian Jordan was cut by the Bills but started for the Falcons for a couple years before he gave up a pretty good career to concentrate on baseball, and became an All-Star.

[Punch]

Nice list. For the record, Brian Jordan was cut by the Bills but started for the Falcons for a couple years before he gave up a pretty good career to concentrate on baseball, and became an All-Star.

 

I do remember Jordan---- wasn't he the safety that intercepted Kelly (1992, a game the Bills won 35-7 or thereabouts) and then Kelly tackled him along the sideline, breaking his leg in the process?

[eball]

As an historical example of how difficult it is to find a player taken in the 7th that will contribute significantly to an NFL roster:

 

The Bills' 7th round draft picks during Bill Polian's tenure as GM, 1986-1993

 

1986

 

7 168 Bob Williams -- Penn State

7 178 Mark Pike DE Georgia Tech

7 180 Butch Rolle TE Michigan State

 

1987

7 171 Kerry Porter RB Washington State

 

1988

7 177 Tim Borcky -- Memphis

7 184 Bo Wright -- Alabama

 

1989

7 173 Brian Jordan DB Richmond

7 193 Chris Hale DB USC

 

1990

7 166 Brent Griffith G Minnesota-Duluth

7 170 Brent Collins -- Carson-Newman

7 181 Fred DeRiggi NT Syracuse

 

1991

7 194 Amir Rasul -- Florida A&M

 

1992

7 195 Kurt Schulz DB Eastern Washington

 

1993

7 195 Willie Harris WR Mississippi State

 

------------------------------------------------------------

I think it's relevant to note that all of these players would have been 6th (5th, in some instances) round picks in the 2010 draft. The 6th round contained picks 170-207. So these aren't really even "7th rounders" if we're trying to compare apples to apples.

[Punch]

I think it's relevant to note that all of these players would have been 6th (5th, in some instances) round picks in the 2010 draft. The 6th round contained picks 170-207. So these aren't really even "7th rounders" if we're trying to compare apples to apples.

 

That's true of course due to the addition of 4 new franchise since that time. But the "apples to apples" comparison are late round picks, I think, not only 7th rounders. In other words, if the above list of players would have been 6th rounders in the 2010 draft doesn't that further prove the point that late round picks are a crap shoot? 7th round picks are not more likely to produce in the NFL than 6th round picks, after. Levi Brown and Kyle Calloway would've been taken in the 8th round or later in 1986-1993.

[dave mcbride]

I do remember Jordan---- wasn't he the safety that intercepted Kelly (1992, a game the Bills won 35-7 or thereabouts) and then Kelly tackled him along the sideline, breaking his leg in the process?

No - it was Anthony Phillips, and the play occurred in 1995 in a game the Bills won 23-17. In fact, the Falcons got down to the red zone in the final minute and had a chance to win it: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199511120buf.htm.

Edited September 7, 2010 by dave mcbride

[Kelly the Dog]

That's true of course due to the addition of 4 new franchise since that time. But the "apples to apples" comparison are late round picks, I think, not only 7th rounders. In other words, if the above list of players would have been 6th rounders in the 2010 draft doesn't that further prove the point that late round picks are a crap shoot? 7th round picks are not more likely to produce in the NFL than 6th round picks, after. Levi Brown and Kyle Calloway would've been taken in the 8th round or later in 1986-1993.

 

Third round picks don't even have all that great a chance of being a decent pro. Just check any random year. There are always just a handful that one would consider good. You're lucky if they're still in the league in three years.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2009&round=round1

[Albany,n.y.]

What's the historical probability a 7th round draft pick makes the NFL roster of the team that drafted him? Before you call two cut 7th-rounders "wasted" picks I would think you have that statistical information to back up your assertion the Bills' scouts didn't do their jobs.

 

Again, I am NO expert, but I'd venture a guess that most football personnel men feel that after about the 5th round, the remaining players fall into the same general category. 6th rounder, 7th rounder, UDFA...if you hit on those you've made a real find, and if you don't, it's not a big deal.

 

That's why I (and several others, clearly) believe your point is not "valid."

Years ago the Texans drafted Drew Henson in the 6th round with the hopes of trading him for something better down the road. Casserly said when they did this that a 6th rounder has about a 10% chance of making it, so it wasn't much of a gamble. Now I don't know if Casserly just pulled that 10% out of the air or if he was stating it based on actual statistics.

[Punch]

Third round picks don't even have all that great a chance of being a decent pro. Just check any random year. There are always just a handful that one would consider good. You're lucky if they're still in the league in three years.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2009&round=round1

 

Oh, of course. The entire draft is truly a crap shoot, but in response to the poster that is blowing a gasket over the Bills' inability to draft a valuable player in the 7th round: the late rounds (particularly the last round) teams are even less likely to find someone of worth, even for the practice squad. 7th round picks are essentially akin to signing UDFAs early.

[Captain Hindsight]

I said it in another thread but ill post it here again

 

 

More erractic JP Losman. Now i was a big JP fan but Trent is better straight up and Levi Made JP look like a pro bowler...you do the math

[Punch]

No - it was Anthony Phillips, and the play occurred in 1995 in a game the Bills won 23-17. In fact, the Falcons got down to the red zone in the final minute and had a chance to win it: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199511120buf.htm.

 

I remember the '92 game (the actual score was 41-14 not 35-7 where the Bills racked up 315 rushing yards) and somehow inserted the Phillips play there--- aside from that leg breaking tackle I honestly don't think I recall the game in '95, although I do remember the other games against the then NFC West opponents from that year. But now hearing the name Anthony Phillips it does sound familiar.