Kyle Williams Top Playmaker In League At His Position?

[yungmack]

This is from Chris Brown at BB.com today.

 

 

DT Williams tops as playmaker

By Chris Brown - Posted May 11, 2010 – 8:00 am

 

Looks like Aaron Schobel isn’t the only Bills player with league best playmaking ability at his position.

 

On Monday we showed how AdvancedNFLStats determined playmaking ability through new statistical models that measure WPA or positive win probability added and EPA or positive expected points added.

 

“+WPA” and “+EPA” add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense.

 

What these stats measure ultimately is playmaking ability.

 

For 2009 Aaron Schobel ranked number one among defensive ends in this statistical model. Kyle Williams was also the top ranked performer at his position, defensive tackle.

 

Williams not only had the highest WPA, but he highest EPA as well. His WPA of 1.99 was far and away the top mark as was his EPA of 54.1. Atlanta’s Jordan Babineaux was second in both categories (1.67 and 46).

 

Williams was also number one in tackle factor (1.33), which goes far beyond measuring just the number of tackles accumulated by a player. Philadelphia’s Mike Patterson was second (1.27).

 

Here’s the top 15 list of DT playmaking ability and it should be noted that Bills DT Marcus Stroud ranked 10th, despite a season in which he played through three different nagging injuries.

 

95-K.Williams BUF

95-J.Babineaux ATL

90-D.Dockett ARZ

94-J.Smith SF

93-K.Williams MIN

90-J.Ratliff DAL

92-A.Haynesworth WAS

96-T.Knighton JAX

95-A.Adams CHI

99-M.Stroud BUF

75-V.Wilfork NE

92-R.Ayodele NO

94-P.Williams MIN

90-D.Muir IND

68-E.Foster IND

[dorquemada]

This is from Chris Brown at BB.com today.

 

 

DT Williams tops as playmaker

By Chris Brown - Posted May 11, 2010 – 8:00 am

 

Looks like Aaron Schobel isn’t the only Bills player with league best playmaking ability at his position.

 

On Monday we showed how AdvancedNFLStats determined playmaking ability through new statistical models that measure WPA or positive win probability added and EPA or positive expected points added.

 

“+WPA” and “+EPA” add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense.

 

What these stats measure ultimately is playmaking ability.

 

For 2009 Aaron Schobel ranked number one among defensive ends in this statistical model. Kyle Williams was also the top ranked performer at his position, defensive tackle.

 

Williams not only had the highest WPA, but he highest EPA as well. His WPA of 1.99 was far and away the top mark as was his EPA of 54.1. Atlanta’s Jordan Babineaux was second in both categories (1.67 and 46).

 

Williams was also number one in tackle factor (1.33), which goes far beyond measuring just the number of tackles accumulated by a player. Philadelphia’s Mike Patterson was second (1.27).

 

Here’s the top 15 list of DT playmaking ability and it should be noted that Bills DT Marcus Stroud ranked 10th, despite a season in which he played through three different nagging injuries.

 

95-K.Williams BUF

95-J.Babineaux ATL

90-D.Dockett ARZ

94-J.Smith SF

93-K.Williams MIN

90-J.Ratliff DAL

92-A.Haynesworth WAS

96-T.Knighton JAX

95-A.Adams CHI

99-M.Stroud BUF

75-V.Wilfork NE

92-R.Ayodele NO

94-P.Williams MIN

90-D.Muir IND

68-E.Foster IND

 

Filing under "How Statistics can Completely Misrepresent Reality"

[Russ 'Em]

Yeah I've been saying Kyle Williams is our best D lineman since last preseason. Although on this team its not really saying much. Its nice to have some outside sources confirm my feelings on this kid. He is whatever you ask him to be, and I am sure they are going to put him in situations where he will be as disruptive as possible.

[sllib olaffub]

I was more surprised by the Stroud rating. But, yeah - having Williams is great, especially with Troupe. I love our front seven on defense now. Formation wise - we've got a nice run stuffing group and a really nice looking (potentially, of course) pass rushing group. If Troupe is as high motor as they say - and Williams is, as we know - imagine both of them getting ample opportunity for rest each game - and our whole front seven being rotated. I'm excited.

[Gabe Northern]

I love our front seven on defense now.

 

We don't have an OLB on the roster. Probably, you know, something to think about before falling in love with this front 7. Oh, and neither of our starting DEs have ever played the "5." Oh, and neither of our NTs have ever played that position in a 3-4 either.

 

But yeah, things are looking great.

[Russ 'Em]

We don't have an OLB on the roster. Probably, you know, something to think about before falling in love with this front 7. Oh, and neither of our starting DEs have ever played the "5." Oh, and neither of our NTs have ever played that position in a 3-4 either.

 

But yeah, things are looking great.

 

 

Man I hope someone told those OLBs that there not on the roster. They could probably be doing other things.

[RealityCheck]

I was more surprised by the Stroud rating. But, yeah - having Williams is great, especially with Troupe. I love our front seven on defense now. Formation wise - we've got a nice run stuffing group and a really nice looking (potentially, of course) pass rushing group. If Troupe is as high motor as they say - and Williams is, as we know - imagine both of them getting ample opportunity for rest each game - and our whole front seven being rotated. I'm excited.

I'm no Stroud fan, but in all fairness, he is the one taking on the majority of the double teams by far. With the Jags Henderson did the dirty work with the double teams as Stroud has had to here.

[Gabe Northern]

Man I hope someone told those OLBs that there not on the roster. They could probably be doing other things.

 

Good stuff.

 

They could be doing other things, like playing Defensive End, which is their natural position. Or maybe something else entirely in those cases where they don't belong in the NFL. But I'm sure Chris Kelsay will have no problem switching over to OLB. Same with Aaron Maybin, who wasn't given a chance there last year because of how bad he looked at the position. But yeah, we're all set.

[ganesh]

Filing under "How Statistics can Completely Misrepresent Reality"

 

We had our two DT in the top 10 and yet we were ranked 31st against the RUN !!!!!!

[eball]

We had our two DT in the top 10 and yet we were ranked 31st against the RUN !!!!!!

Perhaps you've forgotten the rag-tag band of LBs rotating through the scheme last season, with the exception of Poz.

 

Linebacking quality and depth is the great unknown heading into 2010; I'm pretty comfortable with the DL and secondary. Andra Davis was an excellent signing. Poz was more of a playmaker last year and should be entering his prime. They've brought in a lot of bodies through the draft, FA, and position changes from DE. It's too early to tell how that will play out.

[BuffaloBill]

I was more surprised by the Stroud rating. But, yeah - having Williams is great, especially with Troupe. I love our front seven on defense now. Formation wise - we've got a nice run stuffing group and a really nice looking (potentially, of course) pass rushing group. If Troupe is as high motor as they say - and Williams is, as we know - imagine both of them getting ample opportunity for rest each game - and our whole front seven being rotated. I'm excited.

 

 

Though Williams is a greatly undersized nose tackle - I admire his play and am eagerly awaiting the season to see what he can do but you just have to wonder if size really does matter. I would not be shocked if Stroud is cut.

[billsfan89]

If you use your eyes you know Kyle Williams is a good but not great player. Stats in football aren't like baseball you have to consider the circumstances not every snap is a static event that can gather stats from.

[drewfla]

And yet the Bills somehow finished 30th against the run? How about that stat?

[billsfan89]

Though Williams is a greatly undersized nose tackle - I admire his play and am eagerly awaiting the season to see what he can do but you just have to wonder if size really does matter. I would not be shocked if Stroud is cut.

 

Stroud won't be cut he just got an extension and a 3-4 needs big bodies at the DE position as well as the depth because if Troup or Williams gets hurt he could slide over to NT.

[Lothar]

And yet the Bills somehow finished 30th against the run? How about that stat?

I'm pretty sure these stats must include number of plays as one parameter. Let's say the Jets' D forces a 3 and out. But our D gives up 11 plays and 60 yards before giving up a FG - chances are much greater that Stroud or Williams will cause a negative play than one of the Jets D linemen. I still like Williams and Stroud but stats like these are pretty meaningless.

[yungmack]

I'm pretty sure these stats must include number of plays as one parameter. Let's say the Jets' D forces a 3 and out. But our D gives up 11 plays and 60 yards before giving up a FG - chances are much greater that Stroud or Williams will cause a negative play than one of the Jets D linemen. I still like Williams and Stroud but stats like these are pretty meaningless.

This is what it says:

“+WPA” and “+EPA” add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense.

 

What these stats measure ultimately is playmaking ability.

 

So, yeah, the more plays, the higher probability for more success. However, being on the field more than the Jets as in your example also means the possibility for more screw-ups, which it seems didn't happen in the cases of Williams and Stroud.

 

I think Nixley probably analyzed the play in a fashion similar to this study, which might have led them to change to the 3-4, with bigger LBs. Whatever the reason, the D looks to be more smash mouth than speedy, little guys going into this season.

[Green Lightning]

We don't have an OLB on the roster. Probably, you know, something to think about before falling in love with this front 7. Oh, and neither of our starting DEs have ever played the "5." Oh, and neither of our NTs have ever played that position in a 3-4 either.

 

But yeah, things are looking great.

 

 

Do you cut and paste that response in every thread? I've read it about six times today. Relax, it's still football and two gap or one gap, it's beat your guy and make a play.

[BADOLBILZ]

I'm pretty sure these stats must include number of plays as one parameter. Let's say the Jets' D forces a 3 and out. But our D gives up 11 plays and 60 yards before giving up a FG - chances are much greater that Stroud or Williams will cause a negative play than one of the Jets D linemen. I still like Williams and Stroud but stats like these are pretty meaningless.

 

That is the answer. Fewells' defensive line just attacked gaps all day long and created a lot of negative plays and no gains but were gouged for lots of big plays on the ground because of it. The problem with that style of front is that it requires extraordinary talent on the DL, which is just difficult to find. Contrary to the statistical analysis in this thread, the Bills did not have an exceptional DL.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

For many reasons (some of them legal) it's customary to post the link to the story you are excerpting.

 

http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2010/05/11/d...s-as-playmaker/

 

The interesting thing to me is that following the lead of Football Outsiders, there are now at least two additional sites which analyze video (unfortunately not game tape) and break down plays into statistical categories.

 

Pro Football Focus and AdvancedNFLStats have joined that ballgame.

 

More fodder for hardcore NFL junkies.

[K-9]

Do you cut and paste that response in every thread? I've read it about six times today. Relax, it's still football and two gap or one gap, it's beat your guy and make a play.

 

There's a lot to be said for understated elegance.

 

GO BILLS!!!