BillsVet

Buffalo's 2018 offense scored 96 points in their first 9 games. If your point is that the 2024 offense is likely not going to be worse...well, point made. They started at QB, in this order, Nathan Peterman, Josh Allen, Derek Anderson, Nathan Peterman, Matt Barkley, and back to Allen For the record, 2018's first half of the season, offensively speaking, was statistically one of the worst since passing rules were changed effective in 1978.

A serious team having a franchise QB doesn't make this mistake. That's just pi$$-poor planning because you never bank on 5th or later round picks panning out. (Cue the clown who highlights a good late round pick and neglects to mention most never make it). And, McD knew he wanted Diggs gone at some point during 2023 because they didn't just wake up on 3 April and decide to move him. Point is, Buffalo has mismanaged (outside of trading for Diggs) the WR position for years largely because it's not a priority for them. For a professional team in this era that's inexcusable.

If there was a downside to the Diggs trade, they thought it meant they didn't have to draft WR or be aggressive in UFA in 2021 and 2022. Those decisions are a big reason why this is where they are now at WR...they weren't developing much there in those years. This makes me wonder whether the personnel teams, amateur and pro, are advocating for WRs and ignored or just focus harder elsewhere because they know what the bosses want. Regardless, even if they maneuver to get high enough to take a WR in next year's draft, I have doubts they'll get it right. Because 1) they've used only 2 top-100 picks on WR in 8 drafts and neither were/are highly rated prospects while 2) based on the Carolina WR decisions...their acumen finding good ones ain't great. Now, with their cap issues surfacing...they can't bail themselves out signing high dollar UFAs or trade for a 30M/year type. Now they gotta draft a good one AND get production immediately. Because Josh's contract really hits hard next season...and we all know he'll expect more than this motley crew of WR's they've put together.

I really got back into the Bills when they steamrolled teams the last half of the 2020 regular season. I hadn't seen such a dominant team since the SB years and being in the AFC CG was just out of this world. After the generation of fail from 2001-2016, 2017's backing into the playoffs, the debacle of the 2018 season, and not being confident in 2019 only to blow a wild card round 16 point lead I was tapped out. And then after 2020, their attempts to build around Josh slowly deteriorated. He's not perfect, but I'd rather have an imperfect Josh paired with actual NFL WR's than what they're going with this season. And I find myself mixed between anger at McBeane for following their stupid roster formula and indifference because it's clear they are less talented now than they were in 2020.

Re: #3: Brady retires for a season to find himself...but absolutely doesn't get fired. He's just not with the team anymore.

You likely don't have to trade for or sign UFA WRs (and take on decent sized contracts) if you A) draft WRs high and B) hit on those picks. Buffalo only got serious about WR this year they decided to move on from 2023's starters. Because...what you do in the draft tells everyone what your priorities are. And they didn't take a WR in RD 1-3 from 2018-2023. Always had another draft priority in that time. And still, as many others have observed, everything aligned well in this past draft. Buffalo needed a WR and the draft was widely held as strong there...yet they walked away with only 1. Living up to their history, they had more picks to use on safeties and DTs. Meh.

This year's WR group says more about how McD views Allen than anything else. Because the offense with Allen and Diggs meant you'd want to throw it downfield to maximize those players' skills. And both Daboll and Dorsey did, with good results at times. Removing Diggs, they've assembled a bunch of slot receivers, a rookie, and some low-end options who'll play close to the LOS. And the new OC knows that his HC expects the offense to go a different way than his predecessor OC's. This is by design and drafting Coleman doesn't really change the offense much for 2024. There's something about all of these moves which suggests McD wants Josh to play a safer style that will run it ~50% of the time and largely mixes in short passes to that limited WR group. I'm not even convinced that Kincaid is suddenly going to be catching passes downfield either. By constructing the offense this way, it speaks more to how the HC is unwilling to cede any more control to the QB than is absolutely necessary. Of course, something has to give eventually and it's only a matter of time. You can't have the HC clipping the QB's wings...the guy they need when the new stadium opens and charge exorbitant prices just to have the right to buy tickets.

Those jags behind their screen right now:

I've always pictured you as a Kramden-like blowhard anyway.

I am reminded of the scene in The Shawshank Redemption where Andy Dufresne is telling Warden Norton about someone else who committed the crime which put him in prison. After making a coherent argument, Norton argues against that possibility, leading to Dufresne to ask him "how can you be so obtuse." This thread is a lot of Dufresne's arguing with Warden Norton's...the latter of whom have something to protect and cannot be bothered with reason. Apparently now, if someone doesn't explicitly state something, it can't possibly be true.

Pretty alarming that a few weeks into TC they're coming to the conclusion they need more outside speed. Then again, it's not the first off-season they've had a lack of speed on offense...unless you count the short-yardage WR options they brought post Brown and Beasley. Agree that it's puzzling they're reaching this point, trying to be a team that's horizontal and not vertical when you have Josh Allen as your QB. It's almost as if they want to force Josh into becoming a semi-game manager type QB who has all these short options because throwing intermediate to deeper routes is risky. That was harder to do with Diggs and even Davis to an extent...both were guys people expected they'd throw those routes to. With them gone...oops...now we need to be within 10 or so yards of the LOS.

Have to keep the defensive unit off the field at all costs to preserve them for the playoffs...and we can't even get out of TC healthy. This is what happens when the offense doesn't play complementary football: defensive players get hurt.

And that's a fair distinction to make as it could point to a change in use for this season. My main point is they now need to feature him Kincaid deeper and his development from Year 1 to 2 is paramount to their offense succeeding. I don't like the emphasis they're placing on Kincaid improving so much. And, Coleman being put into a tough position as, apparently, the X. Can't have him averaging 9.2 yards per catch this year. We will see.

If McBeane were confident with their WR group, they wouldn't be making moves or inquiring about street FA's at this point in camp. Because if losing Chase Claypool means you gotta find explore WR's off the street, something is dreadfully amiss. Thing about Kincaid is, they used him close to the LOS and this season that's not going to fly. His 73 receptions averaged 9.2 yards per catch, or among TE's with 20 or more catches ranked 37th of 47. His yards per target was only 7.4, or 24th of 47. For reference, Knox was 40th and 45th respectively. They have to feature Kincaid on deeper routes, because their WR group features no one who is a legit threat. Not MVS, not Hollins, and certainly not Shakir or Samuel. And if you need to bank on Coleman, then that's an issue as well.

Beane loves his Corey's...he once took a swing on Corey Coleman and blew 3M in cap room. OBD has really dropped the ball, in all seriousness, at WR this off-season. Comes off as amateur hour.

This isn't a tale of the tape for a heavyweight boxing match. All these numbers, taken at the beginning of a player's career are less relevant that you think. Think Curtis Samuel still runs a 4.3 after taking thousands of snaps? Or MVS at sub-4.4? None of this measure whether a guy is appropriate for the role they envision. Because someone has to line up at the X and Z positions. Is Curtis Samuel appropriate for a boundary receiver role? Probably not as described by @Kirby Jackson. Thing is, none of this reflects whether the player runs solid routes, or diagnoses different coverages, or can beat press coverage. None of those measurables can account for whether the receiver has some chemistry with Josh. That's relevant because the offense is changing and 4 of the 5 guys who are likely on the roster now are new to the QB. They've downgraded the position and we can debate why, but it'll show up and people here know it. And, thinking Brady will scheme open guys...well, perhaps at the beginning of the season but eventually defenses will catch up. Personnel limitations are what they are, and several of these guys are limited. And as for their cost...I'm not paying out the money nor is anyone here. I want the best receivers for the QB this team has on the roster this year. That is the best chance they have for winning a SB.

I can envision guys like Hollins having to play until they make an in-season trade for someone who's capable at playing outside. And until that point, I can then see the narrative will be something like how they were cap-poor and couldn't possibly find better options.

Passing offenses, you know, kinda rely on who is receiving the ball. I'll bet you were one of the people last year highlighting how Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield would make that passing offense better.

I have often wondered who in the front office and among the coaching staff knows what a modern offense is and the has some authority to acquire personnel to fit that. Some real head-scratchers how they built their WR group, but they've been a day late and a dollar short on WR decisions all off-season. Started with dealing Diggs 3 weeks after UFA started and continues now.

"Loaded up at WR this off-season..." Last season's over dude. Brady's run-based offense isn't going to surprise anyone either this year. Many outlets have ranked the Bills WR's as bottom quartile in the NFL. Buffalo acknowledged their issues by signing guys who are one foot out of the league like MVS and Claypool after the draft because they offer no one who can stretch a defense. Josh will largely be throwing to a bunch of slot receivers and backs this year. That's how you know what their offense is going to be and if you can't see that, I'm sorry.

The offense is going to be a lot different this season minus Diggs and Davis than it was last year. They feature no decent options downfield and defenses will focus on defending a shorter field. I don't see Cook replicating last season for that reason. If he's dropping passes now, he'll do it in the regular season when the element of an intermediate passing game was in place. Fred Jackson had almost 1,400 yards in 10 games in 2011 when he went down with a season-ending injury. And if there's a choice between a 2009-2011 era Fred Jackson or 2023 James Cook the choice is easy who I'd want on the field at RB. And it ain't Cook.

Cook last year was 3rd worst in the NFL for passes dropped percentage at 11.1%: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/receiving_advanced.htm The 4 fumbles on 281 touches is probably not what McD is looking for from his lead back either. Then again, the other option is a rookie who may not have the speed to get to the LOS and gets wrapped up in the backfield. Not ideal.

The timing of the MVS signing was interesting to me - a whole 2 weeks after the draft and immediately after they released Quintez Cephus. It would really stink that they have to keep a lesser player on the active roster as little more than a decoy because they were late to acknowledge needing someone to be a true intermediate to deep threat.

Did you read the article? Among other things, a key question was why did they built a more pass-blocking oriented OL paired with average at best and journeymen caliber RBs? Yet, the HC was out there lamenting the running game and increasingly blaming the OC (of which some was deserved). I'm not concluding that Daboll was this offensive savant play-caller, because he wasn't. But the analysis always seems to be at field level when it's clear there's personnel and philosophy issues which are hindering them before they start. I don't expect the HC to do a mea culpa, but after Daboll was gone, as the writer notes, they signed veteran run-specific OLineman and their running game improved who were liabilities as pass blockers, but the goal was achieved...at the expense of the passing game. The whole of this organization, however, is punctuated by a risk-averse coach who can't shake from his roots and won't trust anyone unless they are in lock-step with him. Why is it the responsibility of the offense to protect the defense to the degree we are ascribing to the HC? It's completely misguided given who the QB is. And, is it a good plan to expect a defense that relies on 7-8 DL, 2-3 LBs, and 5-6 DBs to largely remain healthy for a 17 game schedule? That requires a great deal of fortune, but comes at the cost over-restricting the offense. I see people here complain loudly when defensive players are lost for the season as if it only happens in Buffalo. If that's the plan, it ain't realistic. I can acknowledge last year's Divisional Round game-plan was necessitated by having multiple defenders out (Milano, Bernard, Hyde) but for a team that drafts so much defense, it's not optional to keep young players on the bench sometimes.

Question isn't how much that they were a passing offense or how much room McD gave the OC. It's that he deep-down was opposed to it. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-ken-dorsey/ "McDermott in 2021 on the pass-heavy offense: “That has not been my message from Day 1, I can promise you that. If you were in the team meetings in training camp, you would know what style of offense I want. That identity needs to embody toughness.” It is extremely odd that a HC would say this having just seen the best offensive season from a Bills QB in team history and being in the AFC CG. A season they averaged more than 31 points, went 7-1 to finish the season and scored 303 points in those 8 games. It is extremely odd that running it more would be a prime goal the following season when, were it not for a defensive melt-down the following season, Buffalo would have returned to the AFC CG. Or, that following that 2020 season, they wouldn't add any significant offensive weapons in 2021 or 2022 aside from a RB who didn't play that much as a rookie.