BillsVet

Ever wonder why one organization maintains a personnel/talent advantage AND a coaching one as demonstrated on Sunday? Maybe KC's management is just better, focuses on continual improvement while Buffalo just keeps doing the same things that don't work by this point in the playoffs?

The offensive skilled talent at WR and TE...i.e. the main passing targets...are insufficient. This is exemplified when Mack Hollins is your leading receiver in the AFC Championship game. Without an offense capable of hanging 35-40 on a team, it puts added pressure on and narrows the margin of error for the defense. You can't expect to limit KC to less than 21 paired with an offense that consumes the TOP to a 28-21 type win. It's not a winning formula.

It's still amazing that a veteran GM and HC went into the season believing in that WR group. And, that those personnel in that offensive scheme would succeed with support from Kincaid and Knox. That experiment lasted 5 games, had Josh injured, and forced the Cooper trade. Incredibly, they've never developed a true WR1 or WR2 in 8 off-seasons and have now had to trade for 2 veterans to be that. And todate, their highest drafted WR is still Coleman, who they inexplicably forced into being a boundary type as a rookie. That position, from how they use it in the offense to the players they choose is emblematic of a disconnect. Particularly with a franchise QB who is expected to succeed without them. Can't come out of this off-season without significantly improving that position - even if it means going without less on DL or safety.

Yeah...talking personnel needs is ridiculous if the strategy/philosophy isn't addressed first. Because most of what I observe is McBeane doubling-down after each off-season and we wind up right back here in late January. All comes down to McCoach making a huge shift in strategy, which means putting their eggs into supporting Josh first and foremost. I doubt it'll happen though.

In a sane world, TPegs would consider the team is moving into a new stadium and whether McBeane are the ones to produce a SB win with Josh as that approaches. Or, if the playoff losses continue another shoe drops that forces TPegs to choose. Because everything that happened this year was as the HC wanted it...the coordinators and especially their version of complementary football including Josh playing as McD wanted within a balance offense. They failed the final exam and it's clear McD ain't that good of a test taker.

It's easy to just say throw more resources at those offensive positions...but this organization is poor surrounding Josh with elite WR talent either via UFA or the draft. Besides, it's not a priority on game-day either. Their passing attack seemed basic, relied on lesser (slower) players and was over-matched yesterday. Nothing short of a complete overhaul from offensive philosophy/scheme to personnel to game-planning will work. There is no easy fix to this.

Yeah it is. And because they tend to think alike we're seeing how they've plateaued. The Carolina nonsense should go out the window this off-season.

They are not, save for the Josh pick, good evaluators of offensive talent. And I think there's enough evidence to support that after 8 off-seasons. The team speed thing was glaring...again. It's going to take a major shift in philosophy to get to the SB with McD. Sadly, I don't think he'll ever revert from what he is. It's in his DNA. Beane needs to look McD in the eye and say your strategy doesn't work.

Not the only franchise that's been deep-sixed by a horrible owner, but probably the biggest. Hard to believe Jerrah's incredible run of having a yes-man for a HC since 2007. Looks like he'll make it to 20 years with this hire.

Just banish me to solitary confinement for a month to think about it Warden Norton.

Yeah, question for Sunday is does McD's game-plan follow his football philosophy or not. As in, are they going to grind it out running and safe in passing? Or, do they add other elements? For reference, Buffalo's last 4 playoff games, they've run it 57% of the time at a 4.7 YPC clip. They are throwing it 43% of the time for a 6.7 YPA. Mention that because I agree with you and suspect they'll adhere to the philosophy that got them here. I don't seem them re-inventing or significantly altering themselves the week before the AFC Championship game. Give it a rest Warden Norton.

Never fails that TSW is a thermometer of a declining culture. Start a thread hating on the "haters?" So I can say I was right and you were wrong? Go get a hobby dude. A normal discussion (minus the thin ego reflected in the above post) would talk about whether the focus on eliminating mistakes and following a conservative offensive game-plan can work for 60 minutes. Because for 30 it was excellent against Baltimore, who indeed made mistakes in that first half as Buffalo likely expected. Ironically, it was the defense who somewhat bailed out a mostly stalled 2nd half offense getting the turnover. And that's great. This type of game-plan still offers a slim margin of error and requires that all sides of the ball execute almost flawlessly. Lot harder to do at this step in the playoffs.

Who the Ravens played is precisely the point while we acknowledge their secondary was improved down the stretch. I refuse to believe Buffalo threw it 22 times because of the weather or Baltimore's improved pass D. This was more a function of Buffalo choosing to game-plan to achieve other objectives. Maybe McD wanted to wear down that defense, protect their own, and be safe with the ball. That would not be surprising given those were priorities all this past regular season. The Ravens are a very good team and no one is disputing that. Their defense was first against the run in the regular season...yet the Bills chose to run it 63% of their offensive snaps.

Ravens' last 7 regular season opponents (PIT, LAC, PHI, NYG, PIT, HOU, CLE) ranked 27th, 19th, 29th, 28th, 27th, 21st, and 22nd) in yards passing per game. H/T to someone else who noted this in another thread. Yes, they are coached well and made noticeable improvements, but they weren't top of the NFL either. In last year's Divisional Round, Kansas City scored 27 points on drives that didn't close out a half or the game. And Buffalo held the ball 37 minutes as well while winning the turnover battle. Buffalo's 2nd half consisted of 4 drives: TD, turnover on downs, punt, and the missed FG. (Cue the person who references Bass' missed FG for why they lost). The idea your opponent makes a mistake isn't a dependable strategy, no matter how much you like your defense and particularly against KC. Yesterday was a safe game plan and that's not all bad, but benefitted from Lamar's 2 turnovers, drops and bonehead plays (thanks Mark Andrews). Team needs to pick it up another notch because KC is less likely to do that. And the offense might need to bail the defense out.

Rivers was 39 years old and in his final NFL season 4 years ago in the 2020 WC game. Lamar was concussed late in the 3rd quarter the following week...in a game where neither team could do much offensively in very cold weather. And yeah, it's not all Josh...coaches gotta set up players to succeed and players need to make plays. A little context goes a long way for someone who loves to nit-pick other people.

This is the first year McD has had everything aligned to his standard in coaching, scheme, and players. He promoted from within each of their OC's, has a more decentralized offense, has Josh being more in control as a passer, has a relatively healthy defense, and obviously is running his scheme there. Issue is whether having it the way he desires will be successful as the stakes and opponent quality rise. It's the next phase of the final exam they spent all of 2024 working to be ready for. It's encouraging that late in the season Buffalo defeated 2 #1 seeds following different paths. They forced turnovers against KC, played good defense and got some timely scores. Against Detroit, the defense faltered and the offense could not be stopped. I like that they beat those teams in very different ways. But Baltimore is a different team . Then again, Buffalo's evolved a fair amount since they were beaten up in Week 4.

They can't play it safe on offense again. Understand why they did against KC last year in Divisional Round and how that similar focus was an advantage vs. Denver. Agree they need another element of this offense beside the backs or Josh running and those passes in middle of field. To be less predictable, and yeah, less safe. Not sure what weather conditions will be, but I don't expect them to win TOP battle in this one like they did in their previous 2 playoff games where that was clearly a focal point to reduce defense's exposure. Must somewhat re-invent with Cooper here, which should be a slight advantage because Baltimore didn't game-plan last time for him.

Buffalo has talent, yes. What I find ironic is that at QB they swung for the fences and hit one out of the park. But in the years before or since at the other premium positions - DE, WR, OT, CB - they've had some success but haven't found that dominant player. Come playoff time that hurts them when they need a player to make a play. Yes. Part of the reason they aren't in the running for offensive All-Pros is that of their next 9 RD1/RD2 picks, 6 of them were defense, 1 was dealt for Diggs, one for Cody Ford, and then Cook's selection 4 years later. That's not a commitment to offense and using 2 higher picks in back to back years on Kincaid and Coleman doesn't make up for that.

Something bad happened in the past...therefore something bad will happen in the future. v

I'm envisioning a story from the hinterlands that follows two central characters - Sammy and Mike - who find their way to enlightenment after traveling different roads. That kind of saga?

It certainly doesn't sound like you've got manufacturing or lean experience, because you'd have mentioned it. Which is funny, because you read an article about the Bills where players and coaches picked up some thoughts on business problem solution methodology and are blown away like they're so ahead of the curve. Because to problem solve in the manufacturing and business environments it demands an honest problem definition before jumping to solutions. Yet, after each off-season, the Bills come out of their reviews with a solution that doesn't work because their definition of the problem follows along their Carolina-esque team building philosophy. In previous seasons, this typically resulted into renewed focus on adding defensive players while offensive skilled talent was not seriously addressed. The same issues appeared, particularly offensively. Focusing on the 2024 off-season...one problem was clear that Diggs' presence was channelling the offense too much through him and they wanted to decentralize. They also wanted a scheme which reduced turnovers and defensive exposure. Personnel wise, a primary solution was to ship Diggs out and bank on lesser receivers for their franchise QB who would lift those guys into decent options. Schematically, they focused on better run-pass balance and on passing routes in the middle of the field among other things. Maybe the Diggs problem was identified correctly, but the personnel and schematic solution was completely inadequate. We knew this after Week 5 when it necessitated the Cooper trade. Unfortunately, by that time, their starting QB had been concussed, broken a hand, and they'd lost to 2 future playoff teams. It's really weird, particularly with you, how much the focus is on the feelings you take from an article where the HC and/or players read a book on problem solution. Who cares? In a business environment, your feelings go out the window if the results are inadequate. Same with the NFL.

You ripped a definition of Kaizen off the internet and think you know what it is AND that a NFL HC would embrace that philosophy to apply it to his organization? Come on. This post reads like you're in the OBD offices as terminology like 5S, DMAIC, and all the buzzwords are thrown around by Lean Six Sigma Black Belts. Everyone should embrace continuous improvement in their life. Yet, in the case of a NFL football team, they have a responsibility to adjust their philosophy when it's not working. The Bills seem to double-down on what they're doing as though it will suddenly work. What's clear is they entered the season with a less than adequate group of receivers and it didn't work. The course corrected and now stand on the cusp of the playoffs - which will confirm whether their off-season and in-season adjustments were successful. Perhaps the HC is evolving, they're SB winners and the way they play football is validated. We're gonna find out though.

Ravens had strongest SOV and went 7-3 against playoff teams compared to Buffalo's 5 and 2-3 record. I like that they're playing a division rival in WC round. But also don't want to make assumptions either.

At this point, who doesn't have a Crazy Kim story?

Except it wasn't "Total Football" before they traded for Cooper. The 3-0 start was followed by losses to ultimately 2 playoff teams where they scored a combined 30 points and Josh was battered and/or had little to work with. Offensive production is a byproduct of the scheme, personnel, coaching/play-calling, and QB. You have arguably the best QB in the league playing at a high level, albeit increasingly used as a runner. The scheme, as originally designed was inadequate, as were the personnel which meant the play-calling and QB play was affected. The upcoming playoffs are a final exam of sorts for their decisions going back to the beginning of the 2024 league year starting. They're likely to be in some high scoring games with the defense struggling. "Total Football" will need to be abandoned to a degree when that inevitably happens against the stakes raised.