BillsVet

This thread has devolved into the ignorant and the aware. The quibblers and the rational. The head in the sand types and those with solid vision. NFL Caliber? Talk about pure sophistry. What is that? How do you define "NFL-caliber"? Is that a guy on the PS to open the season? Does that player offer the same potential for "strong production numbers" as say, a guy who had 1,000 yards last year? This is the mindset of surface-level of analysis that won't go deeper because doing so requires intellect, rational thought, and understanding for how the game is played across the league. Next year, I can hear it now: Josh begins questioning the team's commitment to putting top-end receiving talent around him. And McBeane in unison say they already put "NFL-caliber" talent around him. Oh, sorry. I'm not allowed to conclude anything before the season begins.

We ain't comparing the drought years to this. Little more nuanced than that. This is about the idea no one can have an opinion, using data or not, before Week 1. Different eras, same rhetoric.

This is funny. You're essentially doing what a bunch of people did during the drought years of saying that, because they haven't played we can't do any sort of predictive analysis which might portend underwhelming results. And then you go and predict target numbers based on wishful thinking. There's been enough analysis using past performance in this thread I won't repeat, but suffice it to say, this may be the least talented WR group since that 2018 season when Buffalo's offense was one of the worst since the 1978 rules changes through the first half of the season. Lot of people here, using the wishful thinking analysis "methodology" who assign trust to McBeane to build an offense. Looks like to me, it's again just the idea that Josh will make everyone better. I bet Joe Brady didn't plan on coordinating this offense minus Diggs. But, someone made the call to unload their best WR and go with a cast of lesser heralded types. It's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it works out.

Vet receivers can make mistakes in that offense like the INT Week 18 at Miami where Davis went left in the EZ and Allen threw right comes to mind. For that reason, I can see them going with veterans and maybe Coleman earns more snaps by mid-season or later. Hard to imagine he'll learn the offense AND opposing defense coverages well enough to not only play, but produce as their X in that offense.

I can just imagine Josh now mouthing this inaudibly on national TV to his receivers: "Hey Curtis and Khalil just go long and I'll find you!" Only question I have is will there be ample dirt available for Allen to draw it up on the field?

The hyperbolic responses in this thread. Wow. Never seen anything like it on TSW before.

Is he channeling Monica Seles with those grunts?

I have a friend who, when Josh has a bad play references his contract as though he's never allowed to overthrow a receiver or a pick. It's just massive cognitive bias. And, for a fan base that struggled for 25 years to find a franchise QB, it's amazing how quick people are to highlight Josh's mistakes. For reference, Pat Mahomes had his highest interception % since he began starting in 2018. It's not a coincidence that he probably had the worst group of receivers to work with either. There's going to be a lot more wailing and gnashing of teeth this year about Josh. Nor is he immune from criticism, but the idea that a QB can perform with a sub-par group of receivers will show up early this season. Inevitably, it'll lead to people criticizing the QB without looking deeper to see the true causes behind lackluster offensive performance.

Josh didn't get the memo to score slower so as to protect the defense in those playoff losses. The good news is, now they have the offense in place which will eat clock, be safe, and therefore reduce turnovers. The biggest benefit is, this helps keep the defense healthy and we all know defense wins championships when complemented with a plodding, predictable and ultimately safe offense. It's how teams win in the modern era now: by being safe and risk-averse.

Their offense will be more predictable post-Diggs/Davis primarily because all of their receivers save for a declining MVS have the same skill-set. It's why throwing to backs isn't the change up that people might be hoping for. There's almost nothing dynamic about this offense, particularly given who the QB is. And their offensive philosophy is revealed in those skill position players. As in, having a bunch of slot guys who'll play nearer the LOS. Speaking of Chan, that 2011 team with Fitz and his modest arm was scoring almost 30 ppg through game 7. Their passing offense was timing based, although closer to the LOS given their receivers and Fred was running it well. Jets came to town and disrupted those timing routes by jamming receivers at the LOS and Buffalo went 1-7 thereafter. Buddy and Chan limited themselves in personnel and could not adapt in-season. At some point this season, Buffalo will revert back to needing Josh to carry them and that's on McBeane for failing to surround him with not only better talent, but a scheme suited to his talents.

And maybe one day, just maybe Sean McDermott could become elite. This roster he's built with Beane is just waiting to break out and become elite.

Tyrell Shavers and Bryan Thompson could become elite. Let's keep this going. Who else?

Comparison really should be 2020 - the team which made the AFC Championship Game. Still, for those who follow the NFL in general (and clearly not as many on TSW do), the game is evolving rapidly. What worked a few seasons ago isn't necessarily going to work 4-5 years later, but alas... the 2024 team is not constructed like 2020 nor as talented offensively. Yes, there were some areas that team was not as good, but the end result is what they should be focusing on achieving and exceeding: winning in the post-season. Buffalo's big issues above the WR fray is staying offensively with or ahead of their primary AFC competition. And, doing so as you note using some youth to keep cap spending down.

Your draft status doesn't mean squat 5 years down the road. It earns zero credit when you become a street free agent signing. Absolutely zero. And signing an incentive laden contract after playing in KC isn't the big win you point it out to be. MVS barely average 2 catches per game last year and was among the lowest catch rate in the NFL - playing with Patrick Mahomes. I pointed out that Shorter was a big disappointment former 5 star recruit. You didn't know that before posting, nor that he averaged about 2 catches and 32 yards per game in about 4 college seasons. These are clown takes bro.

And if I hit on that quick pick down at the convenience store I'll be golden for a month. Or win the VFW Cash Raffle on Labor Day. Or, my penny stocks really take off. Either this is a parody take or you actually believe college disappointment 5 star recruits suddenly figure it out after years of no production. I can't tell anymore.

"Hey, here's one play in a game that proves my point the Bills WR's are really good." I'm really trying hard not to see you as a parody account, but I've seen more parody takes in this thread than I believed possible. It's why my prediction is you and select others by Week 8 will either be (1) finding excuses for the lack of offensive production (particularly the WR's) or (2) completely invisible from TSW. A few brave souls will acknowledge the Bills passing game and overall offensive philosophy wasn't ready for primetime or sufficient for the QB.

He already has by insisting on a philosophy that emphasizes the defense must be protected by a run heavy and thus less explosive offense. The Bills always spin the off-season wheel and it winds up on the same spot: McD's vision doesn't need changing much at all. And Beane supports that vision with personnel decisions in both UFA and the draft which fit that philosophy. The franchise needs a shift and a big move to shake it up. Not the safe, methodical approach which views both sides of the ball equally. They're not. At a certain point in the future this philosophy is going to run head long into personnel decisions at the most important position.

It does when you draft them before it becomes necessary to replace a guy lost in UFA or needs to be traded. Prevents having to trade for/sign them in UFA because you refuse to draft and therefore don't develop them. The Bills used UFA or traded for several offensive players and therefore paid a premium. They didn't do so well developing guys on their first contract, particularly at WR. Buffalo used 2 2nd round picks and traded a first over an 8 year span on WR's. That don't cut it in the modern NFL.

You're arguing against having one because Buffalo doesn't anymore. It's a bunch of WR3-WR5 and an overpaid TE along with a 2nd year guy who averaged 9 ypr. Going back the last 5 seasons, the 10 SB participants had at least a top-end WR1 or elite flex TE. Anyone can quibble over what that looks like, but KC, SF, TB, CIN, LAR, PHI all featured someone who demonstrated consistent production which to me is 900+ yards over a season. Buffalo, to @BADOLBILZ's point has zero players on the roster who've done that in their careers. People can get down on their knees and pronounce any of Shakir, Samuel, or Kincaid primed to do that in this offense, but it's a hope and dream at this point crafted out of wild guesstimates. Teams with elite offenses have elite pass-catchers. And elite offenses are practically a requirement to advance in the post-season.

They're caught in this vortex of believing the running game is more central to a successful offense and the passing game should focus on backs and shorter WR/TE routes. Difference this season is, this OC is aligned to carrying out that scheme and some of that is because the skill personnel offer little flexibility to do anything else. Will be interesting to see what happens when their offensive skilled talent limitations show up what the HC/OC do. Keep running Josh 8-10x/game?

You're on the Bills dormant analytics team, aren't you?

The offense got worse by becoming slower, less efficient and operated more toward the LOS in the 2nd half of the season. That will show up this year. If you can't see how that philosophy which they doubled down on this off-season doesn't present a problem, I'm sorry you can't figure it out. Besides, assuming what worked just enough last year will work this year is absurd. Every opponent on the schedule is preparing for them and knows their personnel limitations. I doubt opposing DC's and HC's are worried about that WR group, which unless you're a blind homer, represents a mediocre group at best.

Issue with Brady is that the offense got a lot more pedestrian last season. It wasn't just that he threw it less than 50% of the time, it's that Josh's yards per attempt went from about 7.2 down to 6.4 from Dorsey to Brady. People can attribute that to Diggs and Davis not performing, but it's at least as much a result of what they wanted the offense to be and how is was called. And it's not like the running game got more efficient as a result...yards per attempt went from 4.6 under Dorsey to 4.3 with Brady. Thing is, I don't believe they see this as an issue, but instead as a solution. Keep drives going, minimize risk throwing it shorter and running the ball is how they've built the 2024 offense. Who's dictating that is for another debate, but there's no reason on God's green earth to take Josh and turn him into a game manager while surrounding him with sub-par or so unproven WR/TE talent. And expecting that more balance will yield better results. The offense is going to resemble more of what it was in the 2nd half of 2023. And it will be infuriating.

McBeane haven't had a WR group appropriate to this QB since the first year he began playing like a franchise QB in 2020. Every subsequent year he's played at or close to that level they've been middling with their approach to WR's. After 3 complete seasons and entering a 4th the WR issue has been kicked around here frequently. Answer is they don't believe the position warrants better talent. And every year they're wrong. Doesn't stop them from thinking some combination of a new OC, Josh playing better with less, a better running game, or WR/TE running shorter, safer patterns will work.

I also don't see the development plan for a guy who enters the league with that skill set. You've compared him to Davante Adams and GB had 2 proven vets ahead of him in his rookie and 2nd seasons allowing him to get up to speed by year 3. Among Buffalo's WR group they have 1 guy who's ever had consistent production at the NFL level who isn't declining in Samuel...who in the last 4 seasons has ranked on average about 45th in catches and 55th in yards. Not seeing how they set up Coleman for success. Of course, it would take serious investment at WR and this regime isn't willing to do that. The Bills just seem enamored of their draft assessment on Coleman and expect him to step in and produce. Or, they don't believe they need the production because they'll move the ball in other ways.