BillsVet

There comes a point where strategically building McD's style of defense requires too much good fortune, too many resources, and delivers too little regardless of who coordinates it. Particularly against good offenses that can throw the ball and more against offenses that can throw and run as we've seen the last 2 playoff losses. Just not a sustainable style of defense and why it's a broken record every off-season to hear about injuries. Front 7 types are making contact dozens of times a game for an entire regular season and people expect them to remain healthy in the playoffs? Case in point is both LB's need to be agile in this scheme to cover, but at the POA they're not the sturdy types in run support. Milano missed 13 games in his last 5 seasons entering this year. Great player, but shouldn't be a suprised he gets hurt. To mitigate injuries at the DL, they've consistently dressed/paid decent money to 8-9 DL every year. Lot of cost, but as we see in the playoffs, not a lot of production. Few rookies start in that rotation, necessitating lot of UFA dollars. Still perennially doing that because HC wants it. If after 5 seasons of re-tooling and improving that defense it can't be counted on, it's time to change strategy. Still not holding my breath McD will have an epiphany and shift his priority to offense and Josh against his defense.

And I'd add...the insanity of using their top pick to fill a need at a position of low value should have died around 2009. (Cue the response that McD's safeties are not of low positional value)

It is...but only when your team drafts like hot garbage, i.e. Buffalo from about 2005-2016. And most of the 70s.

There's must be a morale issue in that locker room trusting in McD's "process" by this point. His personality is already abrasive and he lacks the credibility to keep doing the same thing without people questioning it. He can spin things for fans, but inside that locker room with more disappointments it's not going to go far.

All of this makes me laugh. After the Divisional Round last year, Beane went to the podium and talked about how Cincinnati could draft JaMarr Chase because Burrow got hurt as a rookie. Right now, I take nothing they say (particularly given the timing) at face value. They know the audience is unhappy and media availability is to signal to players certain messages and placate the disappointed fans.

I will trust them if they bring back Phil McGeoghan as WR coach to advise the HC whom to select in the draft.

Ideal off-season: Beane tells McDermott to pound sand on defense because they won't be short-changing Josh anymore with receiving talent. That it's time to build a passing game around their franchise QB that can out-score teams when necessary. Real off-season: McD gets high-resource new safeties and interior DLinemen. OBD uses some mid to late round picks and bargain bin UFA deals on receivers. Season: Similar to the past 3. Pegula is MIA and McD is back in 2025 to run it back another season. Good times.

There's lies, damn lies, and statistics. Churchill knew what in advance that TBD'ers with too much time on their hands would get to this point...and have for years. (Correction - not Churchill, but perhaps former British PM Benjamin Disraeli or Mark Twain...who knows?)

I would hope by now that McD understands playing it safe doesn't get the W. I'd rather Buffalo not get into a shoot-out with KC, but if it happens not to get rattled and stay aggressive on offense. Because KC isn't going to go into a shell.

Calm down Francis.

Jerry didn't want to have to find another guy who wouldn't challenge him and was just happy being the Dallas Cowboys HC. He had one already. McCarthy gets to keep his job, Jerry still makes all the big decisions, and the fans have to take it. Someone will be tossed aside (Dan Quinn come on down) and welcome to the show that never ends...Dallas Cowboys suckitude. I couldn't be happier.

Winning off-seasons according to homers still doesn't mean squat. Nor does winning off-season awards when you keep losing in the divisional round. Maybe that changes this year. Maybe it doesn't. It still doesn't remove the fact that, in light of their goal this year winning the SB, celebration of any executive is premature at this time.

People taking the victory lap before the race has ended. Usually not a good idea because it can blow up in your face especially when the objective this season was the SB. 11-6 with 5 straight wins ain't the SB.

Who cares? Go read a book or exercise because it's not worth the mental energy demanding talking heads repent.

Funny thing about turnovers... The two teams to lead the league in turnover differential? Baltimore and the New York Giants at +19. And the next 3 teams? New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. Maybe turnover differential ain't that big a deal as people are led to believe. But what is a big deal and a guaranteed way to not make the playoffs is when your franchise QB is out for the season. https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/turnovers/table/miscellaneous/sort/turnOverDifferential/dir/desc

Comparison has to be having a healthy Josh > an injured Josh. Josh has thrown too many picks, but there hasn't been much discussion of how several other NFL QB's have upped their number of picks. Hurts had 15, Mahomes had 14, and Tua had 14. Real question is, are throwing a couple more INT's over the course of the season better than having a guy moderately to significantly degraded physically at 30? And what can the franchise do to make the passing game better, provided that Josh is preparing appropriately?

I credit the team for rebounding from 6-6 after the Philly game and winning their final 5 to earn the 2nd seed and a home playoff game (hopefully more) this weekend. At the same time, you can't help but see that Josh is needed to run the ball down the stretch more each season, particularly after or into their normal mid-season swoon. Either by design or when receivers may not be open - far too much Josh has is still carrying the ball and under all 3 coordinators they've had: Under Daboll: 2020: Buffalo entered week 9 at 7-2, finished 6-1, with Josh averaging 5.5 runs to earn the second seed. (No games with more than 10 carries) 2021: Buffalo entered week 9 at 5-3, finished 6-3, with Josh averaging 7.2 runs to earn the third seed. (3 of last 5 games with 10 carries) Under Dorsey: 2022: Buffalo entered week 9 at 6-2, finished 7-1, with Josh averaging 7.8 runs to earn the second seed. (3 of last 6 games with 10 carries) Under first under Dorsey, then Brady: 2023: Entered week 9 at 5-3, finished 6-3, with Josh averaging 8.3 runs to earn the second seed. (3 of last 5 games with 10 or more carries) Maybe they'll finally re-look their offensive identity, personnel decisions, and play-calling this off-season to avoid needing to do this. Until then, they're going to rely on Josh carrying the offense again in the playoffs.

McBeane have used almost as much RD1/2 draft value to acquire Josh as they did on offense in those rounds from 2018-2022. They went Edmunds, Oliver, Ford, traded for Diggs, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham, Elam, and Cook. My concern is McD gets his way again and because they used their 2023 on Kincaid, figure they can go back to defense in 2024.

Every time subjects like this are brought up, they're presented as some sort of binary issue. As in, you do or don't need an elite QB. You need an elite one who is surrounded by excellent talent...especially in the playoffs. The Eagles with Jalen Hurts lost in the SB to the team with a better QB AND offense last year. Brock Purdy comes to mind this year, a competent QB with top-end skilled talent and solid blocking. That will take you far, but in the 2023 NFL, it's no SB guarantee. See the 2019 San Francisco 49ers...perhaps the league's best defense that gave up 21 straight points in the 2nd half to an elite offense and lost that SB. That said, Buffalo seems to have had a plan for this franchise in 2017-18 that is largely the same today. They succeeded in acquiring the QB, but still want to feature an elite defense as though that will carry them. It might for some games in the regular season, but come playoff time it's victimized. They finally add a legit WR2 and WR3 who are threats and this team can go places. Of course, that'll mean not having everything on defense, but it's a net gain. I doubt they'll ever begin favoring the offense though. Perhaps the Bills start getting it right, but they need a course correction with where this franchise is going.

Buffalo is one of the older teams in the league and they've played 72 games since the 2020 opener. What's funny is the people who get worked with the woe is us mentality that guys are getting hurt on defense. Most of the ones who missed significant time (Miller, D. Jones, Hyde, Poyer, Milano) play positions where contact happens frequently. And with so many games played, it should be expected given the snaps. I think that's why McD insists on having so many high picks and vet UFA's on his DL. I'll never understand why McD insists on trying to keep a defense together, including that DL. The Seahawks had an excellent defense 10-11 years ago and within 3-4 seasons that was no more. The most sustainable way to continue winning is building an elite offense in this NFL era. That compared to retaining and acquiring parts to doing so across an entire defense is counter-productive for several reasons, notably, because it draws from what they could be doing on offense. Ironically, their 5 OL starters all have taken over 90% of the snaps this season. They've been fortunate there and I hope it remains the case.

There isn't 1 team in the league after 16 weeks who hasn't dealt with injuries. Every single guy is banged up because it's the NFL. Just because they aren't on the injury report means (EDIT: doesn't mean) they're healthy. The idea that a team can go a full season without a significant injury is pie in the sky nonsense. Maybe the biggest weakness of TBD is most Bills fans aren't following the league, or do so through reading headlines. As all of this debate around Josh happens, what happened to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? He's not the passer this season he was in 2020, or 2022 for that matter. What could have changed? Is he not taking the game seriously? Could it be the Chiefs stopped investing in top-end receiving targets and teams are better suited to defending them? Nah, couldn't be. Or what about Jalen Hurts and the Eagles? He's thrown double the INT's this year (EDIT: compared to last year) and the Eagles are struggling. Maybe, just maybe it's a confluence of factors. As in, teams having more film on these guys and defenses adapt or the coaching staff isn't innovative and going with the same old old, or they are dealing with injuries or they didn't have great skilled talent. It's never just one thing. Josh has had some issues, sure. But they're back running him and expecting him to get by with inferior skill talent around him as well.

I still don't know what their offensive identity is under McD in his 7 years, multiple 4 OC's, and all while featuring for the last 4 years one of the best QBs in the league. HC talks about not wanting to run Josh, but in crunch time needing to win multiple games, they go right back to it. We'll never know it, but I've often wondered if Pegula asks his HC why they put their 43M per QB into harms way so often. Serious conversation needs to be had about whether McD is a good steward of what he's been given, particularly this QB.

And if the defense struggles, I doubt they'll be able to adjust the offense in-game to make up for the passing game decline.

On the broadcast, they showed the run-pass play-calling between the 2 OC's. Dorsey was 46% run to 54%...but Brady is 53 to 47 in his 6 games. Looking at current defensive ranks, Dorsey faced 6 teams ranked in the bottom third of (EDIT: pass defenses) and only twice ran it more than 50%. Brady's faced mostly mid-ranked (EDIT: pass) defenses and run it 50% or more 4 times. Brady's delivering on the HC's desire for a balanced and safer offense, but they're more predictable. Of course, the passing game would be better if they'd invest in WR's more, but almost no one knew Gabe and their group of WR3-5 would disappoint.

Allen's supporting cast was not characterized as "bums" which is just a hyperbolic statement. The comparison was to teams like CIN, KC, and PHI he didn't have the skilled talent at WR/TE. I wouldn't characterize Kincaid as "one of the best receiving TE's in the NFL." He's averaging 8 yards per catch, good for 112th in the league among WR and TE. As advertised, his hands are excellent but he's not top tier yet. Also shouldn't go unsaid that the OL playing well is a major factor, but skilled receivers are not all that.