BillsVet

Khalil Shakir is becoming the Bills equivalent of Bill Brasky. Every time the TBD'ers mention his name it's on some level of magnitude greater than the last time. It's funny, but so TBD. By the time camp rolls around I'm sure someone will project him as an All-Pro. "To Khalil Shakir!"

What is the impact of a Diggs-less, offense? That is the key question almost no one is considering. He was their best and most versatile receiver that defenses keyed on. Sure, down the stretch he wasn't the biggest factor, but now that he's gone, it's not just replacing his production. I laugh at people who assume that minus Diggs' targets, they'll just be equally spread among those remaining without any drop in production. Every one of their receivers AND Josh now doesn't have the benefit of Diggs drawing the opponents best corner. C I'm not on this board to massage fan feelings about the team. This years' offense given their current skill types will be slower, closer to the LOS, and more predictable. They were trending that way at the end of last season trying to balance the run with the pass. Josh only threw for more than 300 yards 2x out of the 9 games Brady was OC and one of those was the OT loss to Philadelphia. And when they don't have the solid pass offense, it'll bleed over into the run eventually.

I'm not your wife/GF, so I don't need to hear you out. The Bills do not seem interested in featuring a high-cost WR anymore for cap reasons. Because they won't have enough room to pay Josh, a non-rookie contract WR1, and providing all the pieces to McD's defense. I said around 2021 here that something would have to give eventually with their UFA spending, getting the pieces to the defense McD expects, and paying Josh. We're at that point now. You and many others are rationalizing what they've done and manufactured into why it's right. We're going to find out, but there is no proven deep threat on the roster and having watched this team, the more questions you have entering the season, the slimmer your margin for error is. Even with a franchise QB. It is a question how a flex TE who averaged 9 yards per catch last year suddenly becomes their deep threat. And none of Samuel, Shakir, or Hollins are that guy really. They don't offer the versatility, they don't separate, and their limited to being short to intermediate guys against Everyone expects these WR's will get production and people will move up to the next position on the depth chart seamlessly. Big ask for guys who've never been covered by the opponent's top DB's.

Yeah, you've framed the debate around winning when Mahomes has 3 of the last 5. Making the SB, there's Hurts with AJ Brown and D. Smith. Cincinnati with Burrow having Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Goff in 2019 with R. Woods, Cooks, and Kupp. If you're talking about making a CG, there's Purdy having McCaffrey, D. Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle. Even Buffalo did that with Diggs, J. Brown, and Beasley in 2020. It's pretty common to put receiving options, UFA or drafted, around a younger QB to accelerate the development and increase chance of offensive success. Buffalo made sure Josh had better targets in 2019-20, but stopped adding in 2021-22.

If the last 9 games under Brady are any indication, at a minimum they'll be more balanced. In those games, they ran it 331 times versus 311 passes (including sacks taken). Maybe some wiggle room with Josh taking off on a pass play, but that's a 51.5-48.5% run to pass ratio. By comparison with Dorsey, it was 254 runs to 363 passes from games 1-10, or a 41-59% run to pass ratio. Whether or not that will be as successful with their personnel group is another question entirely.

Ironic that their defense has been well-defined since Day 1 of this regime schematically and in personnel. Offense, not so much. I think McD has always wanted a strong(er) running game, because he prioritizes the offense along what he fears most on defense. And his defense can be susceptible to a strong running game. Still, that's maybe not ideal given league-wide trends that favor passing and who he has at QB. Problem is, the OC's he hired all saw they had Josh Allen and weren't going to avoid using him like Brady seems willing to given the priorities and lack of complete passing options. Issue with this offense...it's safe and predictable. Running the ball complemented with a short to intermediate passing game and personnel to match. The quick-strike ability doesn't fit with reducing the defense's time on field. Then again, that's the HC. He plays it safe on draft day with Beane. Safe offense. A defense that is structured, but the scheme hasn't changed much in years. Safe gets you perhaps into the playoffs, but not much further as demonstrated by the past few years.

The defense is a part of the discussion because it doesn't have built-in durability. From 2017-23, they relied on veterans who had the experience, but had/have a lot of mileage on them and would get banged up. And then there's the LB's who, while good in coverage, don't hold up with both missing key games. I'm really not surprised they put another body at S, LB, and CB given the rampant injuries there. And that naturally spills over into how they scheme the offense, which when the defense is banged up, has the brakes put on it. Only now, the skilled receiving talent hinges on improvement from 2nd and 3rd year guys, a WR who might be a big slot type, and a having a strong running game. Difference this season is, I don't see anyone who can threaten deep. And, I'm not expecting their OL to be as healthy as they were last year. For Buffalo to win using this method against top teams, everything has to go right. The offense needs to get leads allowing the defense to play downhill and force teams to throw into that zone. When it works, it's great...but when it doesn't, things get ugly. You end up with Josh lugging it as Brady and his two predecessors needed.

Yeah, to run as fast after multiple IR stints, off-season surgeries, and the wear and tear of a 16-17 game schedules. Even WR's who aren't making contact every play, you still have a guy like Curtis Samuel with more than 4,000 snaps taken in his career.

This was the "take your medicine" draft for McD and Beane after years of predominantly mediocre UFA decisions and meh drafts. Taking Josh in 2018 and fitting a lot of UFAs around him accelerated their rebuild. Job accomplished. But what McBeane have demonstrated is they could not maintain that because they relied so heavily on higher priced UFAs/trades, notably at DL, OL, and WR. They kicked the can down the road often through frequent re-structuring. I'd argue it's harder to maintain a top team than it is to rebuild, but that task is made harder when you're trying to be solid across on both sides. Point is, you can't build out a complete team in this era and gotta prioritize. And you must draft well or else it leads to UFA spending that eventually catches up with you. That happened this season. Everyone here who follows the league understands the Bills are swimming against the current balancing the team between defense and offense. Hoping to break the mold at WR featuring a bunch of small and big slot types who will operate closer to the LOS. Expecting the defense to remain healthy into the playoffs and as effective there as they typically are in the regular season. It might be a "transition" season, but it was coming. This isn't a discussion about individual players. It's whether or not, once again, their plan is appropriate. We're going to see.

It will be interesting how teams prepare defensively for Buffalo with all these short to intermediate options. They might not need to play much 2 deep because there's no threat deep and can afford to cheat up even on PA. At least not one who's done it, despite having the QB with the strongest arm in the league. Also puts the running game at a deficit being so predictable throwing it.

And when they don't meet expectations, he offers a weak excuse like not being able to draft a JaMarr Chase-type WR because their QB was healthy. A fan can live with that if there's improvement the following season, but that didn't happen in 2023. It was same old, same old. I've always wondered when Beane would come to the realization that being tied at the hip of McDermott was an anchor on his career. Because as much as McD got him this job, it's McD whose plan largely drives personnel decisions. And, that plan does not seem to consider that Josh could want out because his career is physically and competitively being hampered by McBeane.

You're starting to catch on Logic. Good for you. This regime is playing from behind and McD is doing his version of Sinatra's "I did it my way" approach to building a roster. Brady calls the offense to fit the HC's strategy. He doesn't get to freelance and certainly is limited by the players he's given. And the guy who's in charge of player priorities is the same HC. You're satisfied that the same people who couldn't get over the hump from 13 seconds are now going to get it right after these cap issues they got the team into? This group has a tendency to cry cap problems that they themselves have inflicted when the masses aren't enamored with their decisions or limitations. McBeane are poor stewards of the cap and now they gotta take their medicine. But it's OK.

You forking out 5 figures for a PSL and then 4 figures for a ST?

Lotta mileage and gonna be 25 in November. Maybe Buddy Nix helped with the board this year in a consultant-type role.

Some have discussed this once or twice in the past few off-seasons.

There's been a splash move every 2 years (Josh, Diggs, Von) and now when nothing happens, people are upset. Besides, usually a solid foray into UFA. This is where the regime is now: out of money and with a smaller complement of picks they can't maneuver up with (at least on Day 1 and 2). Fans gotta get used to it.

Barring a major move, Beane and McDermott are going for walks and singles. That's OK if you're a team with a QB, WR1 and decent defense as Buffalo was in 2021 and 2022, perhaps 2023. Not so now, when the WR group consists of Samuel, Shakir, and WR4/5 types. Day 2 and 3 draft capital are bloop singles and maybe doubles without a big move for a veteran now that the top 5-6 WRs are off the board. It's like 2022 when their first 3 picks were a CB, RB, and LB given the positional value compared to their situation even then at WR. We will see though.

Yeah, you can either have the used car salesman (Beane) and his manager (McDermott) running things. Or, you can have Mr. Burns. That's how I see the Bills right now.

Shakir averaged 36 yards per game last year, so I wouldn't point to him as this major coup of a pick. Buffalo's best draft pick used on a WR in 6 drafts is a 4th on Davis. And he was so good they let him walk in UFA. McBeane have found most of their production from UFA or trades at the position in a league which prioritizes them in the draft.

Everything doesn't have to be a mechanical discussion Beck. The problem here is that you understand cost without value. Yeah, trading for Diggs cost a 1st in 2020 and paying his salary, which led to the contract extension he desired. On-field, the production offered meant there was value to the move. It gave the QB a much better receiving option and, in 2020, their offensive exploded. With any trade up, we're talking about maximizing the biggest asset - Josh - with someone who'll be a primary receiving target for him. Someone who elevates the other players in their roles beyond the QB. As in, it allows Samuel to be a Z, Shakir (or someone else) to the play the slot and Kincaid to be their flex TE. That threat should help the running game. Besides, the human element to the player they select is why you do the research. There's risk in taking a kid who'll be handed a large contract. That's where having a coach who understands people with a development program is crucial. Controlling risk becomes a priority when you lack confidence. And draft night is all about being confident in your research, scouting, and decision-making ability.

All this subterfuge about Thomas fed to sports media types talking to team executives. I can't believe people don't know how this works after years of these late reports/issues for a particular player.

Taylor, are you down on Travis already? I guess that wouldn't be unexpected. Maybe Kincaid is your man now...that would definitely make the season interesting!

Playing it safe most years is partly why they've ended their season with a Divisional Round loss three years running. Yet, the one time this regime went big on draft in 2018 they landed Josh. Credit to McBeane for being bold and positioning themselves to move up for JA. You can't do that every year, but there's a time and a place for it, notably QB and now WR. Fortune favors the bold. The NFL remains an offensive-driven league and I'm not sure how people keep missing this. You don't get as far with a pedestrian or even decent offense and a regular season excellent defense in the playoffs. The strategy hasn't worked in years. Other thing is to what's happening in the background. No, this isn't Whaley and Brandon using future picks they might never have had after RW passed away which has been pointed to in this thread. But it probably isn't lost on McBeane that they are selling PSL's, a new stadium is going in, and they need to win. I don't think Terry is as hands-on with the Bills, but that's a factor, even if distant. McBeane should take a calculated risk, if they deem the player worth it, because Josh deserves more than what is on the roster now.

When will they hold struggle / re-education sessions with Commissar Beane to "enlighten" the whining and crying Bills fans?

It helps to play Denver, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles 6x/year with an elite QB when Justin Herbert is the best of the other 3. They also get to play Buffalo at some point in the playoffs and have their number. Ironically, their 2 seasons in the past 5 they didn't win the SB was against a top-end offense in Tampa Bay and against a Bengals team in the AFC CG that featured a healthy Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. You keep your head above water on defense and feature an elite offense against KC. Hard to win otherwise in the playoffs when all the marbles are there for the taking. They're coached well and resourced better.