BillsVet

You're on the Bills dormant analytics team, aren't you?

The offense got worse by becoming slower, less efficient and operated more toward the LOS in the 2nd half of the season. That will show up this year. If you can't see how that philosophy which they doubled down on this off-season doesn't present a problem, I'm sorry you can't figure it out. Besides, assuming what worked just enough last year will work this year is absurd. Every opponent on the schedule is preparing for them and knows their personnel limitations. I doubt opposing DC's and HC's are worried about that WR group, which unless you're a blind homer, represents a mediocre group at best.

Issue with Brady is that the offense got a lot more pedestrian last season. It wasn't just that he threw it less than 50% of the time, it's that Josh's yards per attempt went from about 7.2 down to 6.4 from Dorsey to Brady. People can attribute that to Diggs and Davis not performing, but it's at least as much a result of what they wanted the offense to be and how is was called. And it's not like the running game got more efficient as a result...yards per attempt went from 4.6 under Dorsey to 4.3 with Brady. Thing is, I don't believe they see this as an issue, but instead as a solution. Keep drives going, minimize risk throwing it shorter and running the ball is how they've built the 2024 offense. Who's dictating that is for another debate, but there's no reason on God's green earth to take Josh and turn him into a game manager while surrounding him with sub-par or so unproven WR/TE talent. And expecting that more balance will yield better results. The offense is going to resemble more of what it was in the 2nd half of 2023. And it will be infuriating.

McBeane haven't had a WR group appropriate to this QB since the first year he began playing like a franchise QB in 2020. Every subsequent year he's played at or close to that level they've been middling with their approach to WR's. After 3 complete seasons and entering a 4th the WR issue has been kicked around here frequently. Answer is they don't believe the position warrants better talent. And every year they're wrong. Doesn't stop them from thinking some combination of a new OC, Josh playing better with less, a better running game, or WR/TE running shorter, safer patterns will work.

I also don't see the development plan for a guy who enters the league with that skill set. You've compared him to Davante Adams and GB had 2 proven vets ahead of him in his rookie and 2nd seasons allowing him to get up to speed by year 3. Among Buffalo's WR group they have 1 guy who's ever had consistent production at the NFL level who isn't declining in Samuel...who in the last 4 seasons has ranked on average about 45th in catches and 55th in yards. Not seeing how they set up Coleman for success. Of course, it would take serious investment at WR and this regime isn't willing to do that. The Bills just seem enamored of their draft assessment on Coleman and expect him to step in and produce. Or, they don't believe they need the production because they'll move the ball in other ways.

"When we go into battle we play music very loud. It kinda...calms us down." RIP.

Benjamin got injured in camp that year after going over 1k yards in 2014 as a late 1st. With him healthy, that '15 Panthers team had him and Olsen heading into the season. Point is, they're not that far off in how they view their receiving talent from ~10 years ago and constantly behind the curve of where the league's heading. And some of that is reacting to what happened the season before. Diggs wasn't physical and didn't get much YAC. Then again, neither did Benjamin and Funchess.

OBD didn't adjust their roster philosophy/strategy when Josh's extension kicked in for 2022. It was as if they continued what they were doing, only with a huge QB contract on the books. Still using high picks on defense and UFA dollars to maintain their DL depth. I also see a LOT of people here talk about how drafting RB's is supporting Josh. Their offense didn't get remarkably better with James Cook running for 1k yards and being a 10.1 yards per catch. Even if Cook performs like this and Ray Davis adds to the running game, their passing game is not as good. Can't get around that they didn't reserve room to improve the passing game, Josh was used to run it more down the stretch, and their receiving talent at best is a notch below last year with Diggs gone.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40342965/patrick-mahomes-says-chiefs-push-ball-field-2024 Take it FWIW...off-season puff piece but it's not debatable this is their offense. If Reid is telling Mahomes to go downfield (and likely has each season) it's noteworthy, because he threw 14 INT's last year which is most he's had in a season. For all the complaints about Allen, he had a lesser talented receiving group and threw 18 INTs. Yet, McBeane's moves are telegraphing they want a safer offense that doesn't throw it downfield to reduce turnovers. One that is more horizontal and less vertical. Two teams offensively going in opposite directions. One that goes with what works for both them and in the league and the other playing the contrarian role.

Yeah. Josh gets blamed. Has to be included there. He's not perfect and the throw to Shakir was not a good decision in the Divisional Round game. This off-season has already served to show more fans here that WR is not a priority for McBeane until it's so obvious a need. Should have been in 2021 and 2022, but they found other priorities, primarily defensive or lesser important positions to sign/draft. Then, they missed on WR in 2023 and were forced to take one in 2024.

I can't think of a subject during the McBeane years which occupied more off-season discussion than what they've done at WR. It's now the 4th straight off-season we're talking about it. It got a lot louder in 2024. Each of the past 4 off-seasons this sequence occurs: 1. Debate ensues about whether they need better receivers. 2. Bills sign some low-end short-term UFAs WRs and miss on top prospects. McBeane say they're good to go and homers predictably agree. 3. Season gets off to good start in first month. 4. Mid-season swoon begins with offense struggling. 5. People start wondering on TBD why they didn't do more at receiver. Homers retreat to silence. 6. Season ends and process starts anew.

Go forth and multiply. Obviously bad advice from Him. Starting to see more of these WR contract extensions be for shorter terms. Not stretched to 5 or 6 years, a couple lately at 3.

Your claim as TBD's best sophist is noted.

The fanbase doesn't have any input for coordinating the offense with Josh, so their opinion matters zero. OTOH, McD's been talking about reducing Josh's carries a couple years now...and then all 3 of his OC's who coached Josh ended up doing the same thing. A team with solid receivers doesn't have to do that to score points with a franchise QB. Josh Allen is the last guy anyone should be blaming for their poor performance. It's just typical homers who are unable to see the scheme and talent are mis-aligned with his talents. This offense and the entire team are bottom of the NFL-caliber without him. Besides, the universally regarded best QB in the game threw 14 INT's last year to a depleted receiver group. Think those 2 items aren't related? I see a couple things happening this year. They'll again try evening out the run-pass balance and it'll lead to less offensive production. Josh will struggle throwing to this bottom-tier group of receivers and they'll be right back to him running it again. The offense will continue to struggle and people will blame Josh. The same people like yourself completely ignorant to the fact personnel decisions made Josh's situation harder but easily blame him. This offense has now 8 years into this regime no true offensive identity besides Josh needing to elevate the skilled talent and carry the ball himself.

Josh accounted for 21% of the team's rushing yards under Dorsey. It was 30% under Brady. Dorsey's offense averaged 26.2 points and Brady was 27.1. The same personnel group with a healthy OL managed to score 1 point more per game, but it took Josh running it more. If they're committed to not running Josh as much, it's a big question where they'll replace that production. Because the running game was less efficient last year under Brady even with Josh carrying it more often.

And they needed Josh's 18 rushing TDs in 19 games, 11 of which came in the 9 games Brady was OC. Hard to see how the offense can re-invent itself with their current WR/TE group and NOT need Josh to play hero ball this season. Running it with Cook and Davis will not be as big a part of the solution as many assume. Nor will that receiving group which is being asked to significantly up their game at each starting position.

Winning the American Legion's cash raffle is not a strategy for paying next month's bills. And a bunch of slot-only guys and low end types doesn't make a NFL passing offense. Especially not with Josh Allen as your QB.

More quantity is a the wrong way to put it. You either have quality or you don't and are forced to play guys who aren't as talented. But the primary issue last year as it will be this year is they use Josh far too much. In 11 games under Brady, Josh carried it 83 times for 424 yards and 11 TD's. And they needed every bit of that production to win games. When your offense depends on the QB to produce on the ground, it's covering up some major flaws. Those problems were not addressed this year, notably with replacements for Diggs and Davis. They're once again hoping someone steps up into a role with more defensive attention on them. What the debates this off-season have been about is, why do the Bills not build with better talent around Josh? Why is it frequently the last priority to place high-end talent around him, preferring to go with project rookies, guys who've never played at the level they're now expected to, and some veterans who are what they are? I predict by mid-season, there will be a chorus of people who, all-homered out, will say they didn't have room to spend on WRs but they can in 2025.

Calvin Johnson was freak-ish in his day. But then he got Lions'ed.

And the delusional ones, I suspect, are prepping for fantasy football and view RB's like Buddy and Chan did circa 2010. Only half-kidding. The running game is the change-up to the fastball of passing the ball. When mixed in, it's great taking something off to confuse hitters. But if you have nothing but off-speed, they'll catch up quickly. Still think McD puts way too much stock in running it and throwing to the backs because it's safe to him. Might work here and there like against the Cowboys and Jets last year. But without the passing game they'll fall short when getting those chunk plays and scoring is needed.

Buffalo was fortunate that their 5 starting OLinemen, Dawkins, McGovern, Morse, Torrence, and Brown all played 96% of their offensive snaps. I do not expect them to feature a starting 5 next season that duplicates that luck It also speaks to how having a unit that is experienced with perhaps less talent > a talented unit that is newly assembled. If the OL is comprised of Dawkins, Edwards, McGovern, Torrence, and Brown that's at least 1 new face and I'm not sold McGovern is penciled in at C just yet as much as SVPG is talked up. Also think the threat of Allen running has bailed them out some, but would need more data on his non-designed runs to see how much.

It's funny, because there was talk by some solid posters here about the WR position as a need in 2021, 2022, it heated up in 2023, and continued into 2024. It's become clear their lack of investment there points to a schematic priority they don't share with most of the NFL. Frankly, it's personnel blockheadedness. OBD do not get points in 2024 for what they did in 2019, 2020, or 2021. That was an eternity ago and the NFL is a "now" league. Offensively, the NFL is a vertical game and throwing downfield well tends to win in the post-season. Throwing horizontally and short to backs, slot receivers, and to the TE makes them predictable. Their personnel is going to limit them a lot sooner than people realize. The MVS signing was an acknowledgement they know they're limited at WR they needed to sign a guy who's been available for 2 months on the market. All their guys practically have the same skill set.

It's pretty simple. Bills have dramatically under-allocated draft picks and UFA dollars to the position the past 7-8 offseasons. This, ergo, somehow becomes how the position isn't really that valuable to align with what the "team" has done. Not surprised people arrive at that take to deflect from what the team decided. This issue at WR will become even more noticeable in September and continue the whole season, whereupon people will forget theoretical discussions about the value of WR's in the 2024 NFL and wonder why the heck McBeane don't invest there.

To quote Chesterton, "We shall soon be in a world in which a man may be howled down for saying that two and two make four, in which people will persecute the heresy of calling a triangle a three-sided figure, and hang a man for maddening a mob with the news that grass is green." Developed countries are losing population rapidly and people respond to the idea of marriage and family like it's wrong.

16 days? That's all? Some here have been doing it 10, 20 years or more. It is so much fun telling people what is real instead of making them feel good. So take those arrows and smile.