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Everything posted by folz
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Well, considering the guys Beane was annoyed with wanted Josh Rosen over Josh Allen, it does seem like a valid point. To kind of say, you know, just because you guys have a platform, doesn't mean you know more or your opinions are more valid or that you are correct. Also, in his second post-draft interview, Beane actually mentioned Boogie and noted that they had some misses at corner (i.e., Elam, though he didn't call him out by name). Beane doesn't shy away from his mistakes. He corrects them. How many times did he say he made a mistake with letting Wyatt Teller go? Brandon is not some ego-maniac that can't admit mistakes. He was basically saying, even when I have proven you guys wrong (the Josh Allen pick, having a great offense without a true #1 receiver last year), you still criticize me as if those things didn't actually go well. And when I know that if we had gone with your decisions (i.e., Josh Rosen), we wouldn't be where we are, so... Dude, that is so ridiculous. "Performance theater" "schtick" "stunt" And the whole signing Amari as some grandiose confession that Beane screwed up last year keeps getting repeated. First of all, we were strapped for cash last year, secondly, we did draft Keon last year, third Curtis Samuel got a turf toe injury in camp. If Curtis doesn't get injured, maybe we don't go after Cooper. With Curtis injured and Coleman a rookie, yeah, it looked like we needed more help at that point (especially after the two bad losses, as you said) and before Brady had time to adapt. But, ultimately, Amari started only 4 games and played only 21% of the offensive snaps on the year, and had two touchdowns. 4/5s of the year we played without Amari and the offense still worked (2nd in the league). As to the two bad losses, they were both early in the year. Remember that going into last year, Shakir was the only receiver that had caught a pass from Josh. And it was the start of the everyone eats philosophy. So, we were a different team at the start of the year, a team in transition, a team still learning each other and figuring out their new offense, we needed time on task, guys needed to get acclimated to the system, Josh and the receivers needed to get on the same page, etc. It's not surprising we had a couple of stumbling blocks early, especially with Samuel being injured. If we are talking overall offense, sure I'll argue it. No question, their top two receivers are studs and better than anything we have at WR. But after that, I would venture to say that the Bills are stronger at every other offensive position. QB: Allen/Trubisky > Burrow/Browning RBs: Cook/Davis/Johnson > Chase Brown (5th rounder)/Zack Moss/Samjae Perine TEs: Kincaid/Knox/Hawes/Davidson > Geisecki/Sample/Eric All, Jr. And then there is the offensive line. We have probably a top 5-10 O-line. The Bengals were ranked 27th last year. Joe Burrow has been the most sacked QB over the last 5 years. He was the 5th most sacked QB last year. They have Cody Ford as their starting right guard. BTW, Josh was the least sacked QB last year (of Qbs with at least 10 starts). It's to Brandon's point about Fantasy Football. Sure, Burrow/Chase/Higgins looks better than Allen/Palmer/Shakir. But when you look at the complete offense (you know, real team building), the Bills are the better overall offense by far (as shown by their record 13-4 to 9-8, and by points scored 525 to 472). I think that was kind of Brandon's point. Last year, everyone bitched and moaned about the receiver position. What are we going to do without Diggs. We're going to take a step back, transition year, Josh can't do it all on his own. Then the team goes out and proves they were correct about how they handled things by being the second highest scoring team in the league and making it all the way to the Championship game with a stronger run game and an everyone eats mentality. And then this year, the conversation is all about not having enough or good enough receiving options. I can see him being like, why are we having this conversation again. Last year is actual evidence/proof that we were correct about how this offense can run, yet here we are with the same questions about WR. Most people hated or wrote off the Hollins pickup last year, and he proved to be a very important piece. Palmer is a big upgrade from Hollins, yet people act like he's just an afterthought. Coleman, Samuels, Dalton: 1,280 yards and 7 TDs Amari and Mack: 675 and 7 TDs As I keep pointing out, Amari Cooper only started 4 games and played a total of 21% of the offensive snaps last year (and he was injured and acclimating to a new team/QB during that). We played 4/5s of the season without him. He had 297 yards and 2 TDs. He had 6 catches for 41 yards and 0 TDs in the three playoff games. People act like Amari was our #1 and integral to the offense's success or something. He helped out in a few games, that's all. And as much as I loved Mack, Palmer is definitely an upgrade to the combination of Mack (66% of snaps) and what we got from Amari (21% of snaps). Coleman should be better in his second year and past the injury. Remember, in the two games just prior to the injury, he had 170 yards and a TD. And Samuels is healthy (hopefully he can stay that way). Curtis was coming on at the end of the year and scored two TDs in the playoffs. Kincaid is going into his third year, often a jump year. And we're also returning Shakir, Knox, and all 3 RBs who are each good at catching the ball out of the backfield. Plus we added a true blocking TE, which we haven't had in a while. Even if the improvements of Palmer, Coleman, and Kincaid are small (not big jumps), there is no reason to think that this offense should regress. We are returning almost everyone and replaced Palmer for Hollins/Cooper (87% combined snap count). If Palmer plays like 70+% of the snaps and has 675 yards and 6 TDs, it will basically equal the combo of Hollins/Cooper. I don't think that is out of the question. Plus, Curtis will eat up a lot more snaps as well being healthy. To the second bolded point. It's not just that we were a good offense last year, we have been the 1st or 2nd best offense every year for the last 5 years. It's Josh, it's the O-line, it's the coaches, it's the RBs, etc. Not everything depends on having the best WR room in the league. And the whole point of this offense is to be unpredictable. Many, versatile weapons that you don't know where we will attack from. Being multiple, so you can change your gameplans according to your opponents (like old NE-style). So, let opposing teams try to figure it out. There is nothing to figure out, we can adapt to your weakness and be on the attack, rather than the defense dictating, because we can hit you from so many areas and out of the same personnel groupings. Scheming guys open and letting our MVP QB make the decisions is what this offense is about in my opinion.
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Is there an NFL team with a weaker WR group than the Bills?
folz replied to Pete's topic in The Stadium Wall
No question, our WR group alone would not be ranked highly. But, maybe you are looking at this offense too traditionally. First off, the Bills like their players to be versatile, the ability to play multiple spots (to disguise better)---but yes, it will most likely be Palmer, Keon, and a bit of Samuel on the outside primarily. And currently at WR5 would be a battle between Shenault, Shavers, Prather, Hamler, Virgil, Presley, Akharaiyi, and Gosnell. But whose to say Beane is done yet? I'm all for adding more depth to the WR room (to compete for the 5/6 spots). And then there is the whole "Everyone eats" thing. I mean, we use our RBs and TEs a lot in the passing game (those are "weapons" for Josh too). The RBs and TEs had 139 receptions last year and 12 TDs through the air. That equates to over 45% of our passing production last year and 43% of the receiving TDs. And that was mostly by design, not desperation. This offense is about Josh spreading the ball around. Also of note, we ran the ball 49% of the time last year (4th most in the league). So, when you add our rushing rate and the number of balls that go to the RBs and TEs in the passing game, I would guess that there are a lot fewer balls for the WRs on the Bills than on most other teams. It seems most people who feel we are lacking at the WR spot want one of two things: 1. Either that true #1 Alpha dog stud receiver. Well, there aren't actually a lot of those guys to go around, first of all. And we're never high enough to draft one. Secondly, they cost a fortune. And lastly, I'm not sure that is what the Bills want. How many stud receivers are going to be ok with Josh spreading the ball around to 8 different targets per game, or almost half of the balls going to the TEs and RBs? I wouldn't turn down a stud receiver if he fell in our lap, but I'm not convinced that that is what this offense needs. Or, 2. A true speed receiver. But honestly, how many of those guys actually pan out? We have seen plenty of John Ross', Henry Ruggs', Marquise Goodwins', Tyquon Thortons, J.J. Nelsons, Jacoby Fords, Andy Isabellas, etc. not do much in the league. And I'm not sold on Worthy yet either. And we actually already have one of those guys of our own in K.J. Hamler. And if you bring up a guy like Tyreek, I'd say, well, he's not just a pure speed guy, he's a stud. That's why he's been one of the highest paid guys in the league. Again, tough to find guys like that. Plus, as far as speed goes, KJ Hamler ran a 4.27, Curtis Samuel ran a 4.31, and Khalil Shakir ran a 4.43. We do actually have some speed on the team. FYI, Curtis Samuel has the 12th best 40-yard dash time ever at the combine for a wide receiver. I also can assume that you are not as bullish on Keon as I am. I think Keon is going to be a very good player and have an excellent season. I definitely think we can count on him as say a WR2. He'll at least be better than last year (with a year under his belt and being past the injury). If Samuel is healthy, that's an upgrade from last year. Not sure how Palmer will work out, but he's no question an upgrade from Hollins (whom I loved). And before you say Palmer is actually Amari's replacement, so it's a downgrade, I'd like to remind you that Amari only started 4 games last year and only played a total of 21% of the offensive snaps last season. We played 4/5ths of the season without Cooper and were still the #2 offense in the league. Hollins, on the other hand, played over 66% of the offensive snaps last year. And then, of course, let's face it, Shakir is a stud...even if it's mostly in the slot or on screens, etc. Do we have a big name receiver? No. But I think last year showed that this offense can be successful without one. It's not that everything is on Josh, it's just that Josh is spreading the ball around to multiple targets rather than favoring a #1. Josh had the fewest sacks and fewest interceptions of his career last year (oh, and won the MVP). He also didn't have to run as much as some other seasons. He's had 3 seasons where he ran more than last year, and only 1 season where he ran significantly less than last year. So, I'm not on board with the Josh has to do it all by himself narrative either. I think we have plenty of weapons, just not household names. This offense is mostly about scheming guys open, which we can do because we have a lot of very good and versatile (even if few or no elite) weapons, and a supremely talented, smart QB, who can make quick decisions, and all of the throws. And if you don't think that fixing, upgrading, and bringing youth to the defense isn't giving Josh help, then I don't know what to tell you. Field position, turnovers, TOP, opponent's score, all help Josh and the offense. Complimentary football. -
10 picks to start. Beane moved up, what, three times to get guys he wanted? And we still walk away with 9 players, one in each round---with two in the 5th and 6th (almost all good value where we got them and fulfilling needs---I'm liking the TE pick the more and more I think about it). And our 2026 draft is still in tact. Really like how BBB managed his assets this draft. Can't wait to see this defense come together. Man, if they can build a dominant defense, with a Josh Allen-led offense---this team could be almost unstoppable. I know, I know, one day at a time. But, yeah, I liked the draft.
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I know they aren't true down-field burners, but Samuel ran a 4.31 and Shakir ran a 4.43 40-time. I mean, that's not slow. Hamler ran a 4.27 (not that I expect him to see the field much, if at all). Also, six of the top twelve 40-yard dash times ever were wide receivers, how'd they fare in the league (and believe me, I'm not sold on Worthy yet)? Sometimes speed isn't everything. 1. Xavier Worthy, 4.21 seconds in 2024 2. John Ross, 4.22 in 2017 T4. Rondel Menendez, WR, 4.24 in 1999 T6. Jerome Mathis, WR, 4.26 in 2005 T10. Marquise Goodwin, WR, 4.27 in 2013 T10. Henry Ruggs III, WR, 4.27 in 2020
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The Bills may need to get bigger meeting rooms for the cornerbacks and defensive line. Talk about stacking positions. Also, Bills Points Scored Rankings last five years: 2024: #2 2023: #6 2022: #2 2021: #3 2020: #2 This draft is exactly what we needed. Lot of versatility added to the D-line and CB rooms too. That will help with the NFL kind of split right now...some teams moving back to heavier ground games (Baltimore, Philly, etc.), while others are still more passing/finesse (KC, LAR). Now, we should hopefully be able to run zone or man equally as well, and go either big and stout or fast and penetrating on the D-line depending on the circumstances.
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I gave you an "awesome" for your post Gunner, though I wish I could have given you a "thanks" too. I don't watch college football much and do not spend a lot of time researching the draft, so I really appreciate posters like you (Gunner), Gonzo, Virgil, and all of the other guys that help get the rest of us up to speed with all things draft-related. Much appreciated guys! I know you all put a lot of work into it. 👍
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Bills First Rnd pick in 2025 draft: Maxwell Hairston - CB - Kentucky
folz replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
For what it's worth, one of the guys from ESPN said that his issues with run support/tackling was after the shoulder injury, due to the lingering injury. They said he did not have those issues junior year and that his shoulder is now healthy. Not sure how accurate that is, but thought I'd pass it along. -
Corner was a position of need. We got probably one of the top 3-5 CBs (picking 30th). We got the fastest CB in the draft. A lot of draftniks may have had other corners higher, but the Bills are drafting for their team, their scheme, etc. So, I can only assume that they felt that Hairston fit them best of the corners who were left. So why wouldn't I be on board with that. Yes, Beane has made mistakes (Elam)...but do I think that means he will screw up every 1st round or cb pick? No. He picked Benford too. And McD picked Tre White. Look, I don't scout the college players. I'm not sure if Johnson, Amos, or anyone else would be better or not (so laugh at us all you want). But Hairston is the guy they chose. He's the guy we will be rooting for over the next few years, so, yeah, I'm getting on board. Doesn't mean you can't have a dissenting opinion. That's fine. Lots of people felt we should have traded down (probably couldn't find a partner), or would have preferred a different player...but it is what it is now. Also, one of the guys on ESPN pointed out that he had a shoulder injury last season that kept him out of 5 games, and when he came back from the injury, his run support was lacking a bit due to the lingering injury (he's good now, heath-wise). He said if he came out the year before, after his junior year, he wouldn't have lasted to this point in the draft---meaning he would have been a much higher 1st round draft pick. Sometimes when you are picking late, you have to go with the highest ceiling. Doesn't always work out, but I'm on board with that philosophy. And as far as no one having Hairston over Amos (or Johnson), just on a quick Google search: -CBS Sports had Johnson at 17 overall (1st cb), Hairston at 26 overall (3rd cb), and Amos at 33 overall (6th cb). -Walter Football had Johnson the 2nd-ranked corner, Hairston as the 3rd-ranked corner, and Amos the 5th-ranked corner -NBCSports had Johnson as the 2nd-ranked corner, Hairston as the 5th-ranked corner, and Amos as the 6th-ranked corner. -Daniel Jeremiah had Johnson at 13 overall, Hairston at 32nd overall, and Amos at 41 overall -NFL Mock Draft Database had Johnson at #13 overall, Hairston at #34 overall and Amos at #38 overall -Pete Prisco had Hairston at 19 overall, Johnson at 31 overall, and Amos not in the first round -Mel Kiper had Johnson as the #1 CB and Hairston as the #3 CB. Amos did not make his top 10 CBs. Todd McShay had Johnson at 17, Hairston at 24, and Amos at 48. So, there are 8 people at least (I stopped looking) that all had Hairston over Amos, and at least one that had Hairston above both Johnson and Amos. I'm curious. Johnson was pretty high up on a lot of draft boards (generally a first-rounder, many had him in the 13-19 range). Why do you (anyone) think he slipped?
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If people were hoping he'd be available at 30 for Buffalo, doesn't that make Grant a reach for Miami at 12? May still be a great player, but is it a surprise for him to go that early?
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Does Mahomes really get preferential treatment from officials?
folz replied to pennstate10's topic in The Stadium Wall
Thanks NFL. I'm sure that will solve the problem, sacking a 1st-year, 2nd-year, and 3rd-year ref, none of whom reffed in the post-season. Now, these guys are all young in their careers, so maybe they do need more experience (weren't quite ready for the NFL/made mistakes), but I hope the NFL isn't doing this, putting this out there to try and convince us that they have somehow solved the ref problem or at least are actually trying to do so. The problems with NFL reffing goes back a lot further than three years and has little to do with inexperienced referees. The change needs to happen at the top, not the bottom. -
So, if Cleveland can't get out of any of the contract and Deshaun never plays another snap for Cleveland: The Browns will have paid Watson approx. $410,000.00 per snap. Almost half a million per snap! For comparison, the Bills have paid Josh (over the same 3-year stretch), approx. $65,000.00 per snap. (that's on his second <big> contract---6-yrs, $258 million) So, for every single Watson snap (money-wise), we got 6.31 Josh Allen snaps. And obviously, Josh already has better per snap stats, but now times that by 6.31. Tough to be a Browns fan.
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Great Number Eights in Sports Kobe Bryant Cal Ripken, Jr. Alex Overchkin Carl Yastrzemski Yogi Berra Willie Stargell Joe Morgan Troy Aikman Steve Young Andres Iniesta Gary Carter Ray Guy Steve Smith Cam Neely Andre Dawson Teemu Selanne Bill Dickey Archie Manning Albert Belle Dale Earnhardt, Jr. It's like when Trump wanted to trademark, "You're fired!" You should not be able to trademark common phrases, letters, or numbers. BTW, Ranker had Jackson as the 9th best athlete to wear #8. Another site ranking athletes who wore number 8 didn't have Lamar in their top 10. He was in the honorable mentions with 28 other guys. I mean, can no other American athletes wear the number again if Jackson gets a trademark? And don't they actually say, possession is 9/10ths of the law? Considering all of those guys on the list above were older than Lamar, had the number first, and many of them were even more prolific in their sport than Lamar has been thus far (though he still has time), shouldn't their claims on the number supersede his later claim, if thinking about this lunacy logically?
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As far as I can tell, we know what Josh got his linemen for Christmas for 4 out of the 7 seasons that Josh has played. Yeah, no word on what he got them this year (as far as I can tell). I assume the story of what they got him overshadowed any need to report what he got them. 2018: ipads 2019: Traeger Ironwood Grills and steaks 2020: A set of Callaway golf clubs, customized golf bags, and golf lessons 2021: ?????? 2022: Customized scooters 2023: ?????? 2024: ??????
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Raiders extend Geno Smith, 2 years - $75 million
folz replied to ChevyVanMiller's topic in The Stadium Wall
Thanks for the correction guys. I forgot that he slipped to the 2nd round. But yeah, that's one more reason why he could have quit...or one more hurdle that he had to jump---the humiliation of expecting to go round one, being in the green room with the cameras on you, and your name not getting called. -
Raiders extend Geno Smith, 2 years - $75 million
folz replied to ChevyVanMiller's topic in The Stadium Wall
Good for Geno. A first round pick, two rough years to start, horrible franchise, the whole punched in the jaw episode, which led to him losing his starting job to Fitzpatrick. Then served 2 years as backup with Jets, 1 year backup with Giants, 1 year backup with Chargers, 3 years backup in Seattle. That was his first 9 years in the league. A lot of guys with his draft status and those circumstances would have quit or been run out of the league for not working hard, attitude, or not fulfilling the role of a backup well (ego), etc. In his first 10 years in the league, he made just shy of $15,000,000 total. In 2019, his salary was only $805,000. In 2022, it was still only $3,500,000. He has now been a starter for the last three years, and it appears that he will have at least one or two more years in that role. And in the last 2.5 years now, he has earned contracts worth approx. $125,000,000. I give him a lot of credit for sticking with it, obviously continuing to work hard and to believe in himself. He obviously loves the game and/or still wanted to prove himself. He will now have carved out a 13+-year career and have generational wealth, when he could have just been a footnote in the league (based only on his draft position), like a lot of other guys. I wouldn't want him as my QB, but ya gotta give him credit for his work ethic and perseverance. -
How far up in the 1st round could we move up with one of our 2nds?
folz replied to bills6969's topic in The Stadium Wall
Looking at the draft value chart that ddaryl linked: Our entire draft (all 10 picks) = 1,468.6 points. That equates to about the 7th or 8th overall pick in the draft. [Obviously Beane is not going to sell the entire draft.] If we traded our first and both seconds to move up, we could get to about the 11th pick. After that, the points for picks in the 4th-7th round drop significantly. For instance, even if we added our two 4th round picks (along with our first and seconds), we could only get up two more spots (to about 9th). And as ddaryl pointed out, answering the OP's original question, our first-round pick and (first) second-round pick could get us up to about the 17th pick. Not sure what Beane and McD are thinking, or if they feel there is a player worth moving up that high for. But, it is feasible to move up into the teens (11-17) without giving up any 2026 picks. And he would still have enough ammo (two 4s, three 5s, two 6s, and possibly a 2nd, depending how high they go) to even sneak back into the end of the third round if he wanted to (with some picks to spare). So, one possible scenario could look like this: Rd 1: 17th overall pick Rd 2: 62nd overall Rd 3: 90th overall Rd 5: 170th and 173rd overall Rd 6: 177th and 206th overall (and he could even then package one 5th and one 6th to move back into the end of the fourth round and come away with 6 picks, one in each of the first 6 rounds...so many possibilities.) As Beane said, he has a lot of ammo (without even any 2026 picks involved), so I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see BBer-Beane moving around the board a good bit this year to find the pieces they need. Just not sure if there is anyone in that 1st-round range (11-17) that they deem worthy of going up to get. I'll let the draftniks dig into that one. -
To be fair, it was one preseason game and one regular season game (not against scrubs) for Rob Johnson. In 1997 Mark Brunell (QB of the Jags) injured his knee in the 2nd preseason game. Rob Johnson was the starter for the third preseason game. Couldn't find any stats for the 4th pre-season game, but assume he didn't play (cause back then only 3rd-5th stringers usually played the 4th preseason game). Johnson would then go on to start the first game of the year for the Jags---Week 1 of the regular season vs. the Baltimore Ravens (as Brunell was still recovering). It wasn't a very good Baltimore team (they would finish 6-9-1 with Vinny Testeverde as their QB), but it was their starting line-up, on opening day, in Baltimore. Rob Johnson's stats for those two games in 1997 (before becoming a Bill in 1998): Preseason week 3 vs. 49ers: 22 of 29 for 241 yards, 1 TD (passing), 0 INTs, 16 Rushing yards, 1 TD (rushing)---in a 28-20 Jax win (albeit preseason). [SF did go 13-3 that year, but not sure how they managed this preseason game, i.e., how many starters played and for how long, etc.] Regular season week 1 vs. Ravens: 20 of 24 for 294 yards, 2 TDs (passing), 0 INTs, 31 Rushing yards, 1 TD (rushing)---and a 28-27 Jax win. But, your point of possible fool's gold (with Milton, in relation to Johnson) still stands. And interesting to note, Johnson only saw 13 more snaps total the rest of that year (1997). He went: 2 for 4 for 50 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks, 3 Rushing yards (on 9 attempts), 0 TDs [Not quite so pretty, but I guess it was tough to knock a guy for those stats too much when it was across 4 games---basically coming in and playing 2-5 snaps in each of those games.}
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And that would still be better than Schottenheimer's record. 😆 But, yes, let's re-write history and subtract games from a coaches record to prove a point. I'll give a shot at rewriting history too: If from 2020 on we were still in the old playoff format, the Bills would have had a first-round BYE in each of those 4 seasons. We would have been more rested (like K.C.) and have played one less game before facing K.C. Considering that injuries have been an issue for us in a few of those seasons, playing one fewer playoff games and having an extra week of rest would have helped a lot. And considering three of those games against K.C. were in OT, loss by 3 points, and loss by 3 points---maybe we win one or more of those games (being better rested/healthier) and instead of a .300 playoff record as you surmised, we are talking about a coach who made one or more Super Bowl appearances (possibly a SB win). Plus, saying 7 seeds who wouldn't have even made the playoffs previously makes it sound like those 7 seeds were trash teams or were easier wins, so they almost shouldn't count for McD anyhow. As if maybe we would have had a harder time against 6-seeds than we did 7-seeds, if say we were the 3-seed instead of the 2-seed. But first of all, for that to happen, you would already have to take away a couple of regular-season wins from the Bills in that scenario (to knock us down to a 3-seed), which again would be changing history, but...how much worse were those 7 seeds (compared to say a 6-seed)? Could we have not beat these superior 6-seeds if needed? for the years in question: 2020-2021: We played the 7th-seeded Colts (11-5). The Steelers were the 6-seed (12-4). That's the Pitt team that limped down the stretch, losing 4 of their last 5. And who lost to Buffalo in week 14 of the regular season 26-15. Steelers lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Browns. 2022-2023: We played the 7th-seeded Dolphins (9-8). The Ravens (10-7) were the 6-seed. Again the Ravens were a floundering team, losing 4 of their last 7 down the stretch. They lost to Cincy in the first round of the playoffs and again, the Bills had beat them in the regular season that year. 2023-2024: We played the 7th-seeded Steelers (10-7). The Dolphins (11-6) were the 6-seed. Dolphins lost to K.C. in the first round 26-7. The Bills had beaten the Dolphins twice during that regular season. 2024-2025: We played the 7th seeded Broncos (10-7). The Steelers were the 6-seed, also at 10-7. Steelers lost to Baltimore (who we would go on to beat) in the first round of the playoffs 28-14. We did not play the Steelers during the regular season. But, I think most people would agree that by the end of last year, the Broncos were a much better team than the Steelers were. I would say in at least two, if not three of those seasons, the 7-seed was a better team than the 6-seed. But either way, the Bills would have beaten any of those 6-seeds, no problem.
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I see what you are going for, but why would you compare Sean (.500 career playoff win %) with Marty (.278 career playoff win %). Wouldn't coaches like Mike McCarthy, Pete Carroll, Sean Peyton, Mike Ditka, Dan Campbell, Demeco Ryans, Lou Saban, Chuck Pagano, and Lovie Smith be better comparisons since they all also have .500 career playoff records? Heck, Don Shula's playoff record was only.528. And out of those 10 coaches, 7 appeared in a Championship game, and 6 have won it all---with two of them (Ryans and Campbell) only having a combined 6 seasons of coaching thus far. So, tell me again how bringing up Schottenheimer somehow equates to McDermott can never reach or win a Super Bowl? And obviously Marty had a longer career, and Sean has Josh, but here are some of their career percentages in comparison: Reg. Season Win% Playoffs Win% % of yrs in Playoffs % of Winning seasons Top-5 rank points scored% Top-5 rank in Pts allowed% Marty .613 .278 61.9 66.6 28.5 19.0 Sean .656 .500 87.5 87.5 62.5 50.0
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You forgot one: Chiefs are dynasty Injuries Bad luck NFL/refs Or you could go with the other side: McD sucks (and I know for a fact that he can never win a SB) Beane sucks Defense sucks No talent on the team besides Josh (i.e., everyone sucks but Josh) Ok, I know I'm exaggerating, but that's what it feels like sometimes from some posters. To me, it's just more fun being a fan in the first category. To each his own, I guess. Just to note, since 2020 (last 5 years): -The Chiefs win percentage vs. the Bills is 54.5% (50% even since 2021, last 4 years). The Chiefs win percentage vs. the rest of the league over that span is 86.8%. -The Bills are 4-5 vs. the Chiefs in that span. The combined point totals of each team in those 9 games is Chiefs 243 points; Bills 242 points. -At the end of regulation in the last three playoff matchups with the Chiefs, K.C. had a combined 6 points more than the Bills (across 3 games). So we are literally talking about one kick, one play, one coin toss, one call, one bounce of the ball going the other way to change the outcomes of any of those games. -The Chiefs appeared in 5 of the last 6 SBs, winning 3 (and don't discount the whole Taylor Swift marketing stuff). -Also, did we not have injuries, bad luck, and bad refereeing at times/certain seasons? It's not like people are making those things up. It's just hard for me to buy the idea that McD has been so severely out-coached (or he's the sole reason for our failures) or that we are so far inferior in talent to the other top teams when the margin is that razor-thin (and with the circumstances noted above added---inuries/bad luck/bad refs). Could we improve, get better, get another elite player or two, of course...but we actually have been good enough coaching- and personnel-wise to make a SB, it just hasn't happened. Not to mention that the Bills have been #1 in points scored, #3 in total yards, #1 in points allowed, #1 in TDs allowed, #1 in defensive takeaways, and #2 in total wins over the last 5 years. You don't do that with poor coaching, bad defense, and no talent, no matter how good your QB is (I know, I know...regular season). Anyhow, as to the OP's post, I think everyone knows not to go to OBL for anything overly-critical or controversial about the team. As an owner, why would you have a show that talks ill of your own product? But, what OBL is good for, imo, is: 1. in-season recapping games and then later in the week prepping for the next game; 2. Right after free agency and the draft, and during training camp (recaps and interviews with new players, etc.); 3. Sometimes they have on good guests and often have player interviews (pre-season, in-season, or say after they signed a contract or whatever). I just pick and choose with OBL. Off-season OBL (not around FA, the draft, or training camp) can be a bit of a slog, so I rarely listen during those periods.
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My takeaways (kind of rewatching the offense and looking forward a bit): -We are indeed very lucky to have Josh as our QB. A match made in heaven. Couldn't be more right for Buffalo. The fates/football gods will not allow him to retire without a ring here (keep the faith). Josh is like the ultimate football player. His game is both modern and throwback at the same time. He doesn't just run the ball as a QB (with speed and shiftiness), he is an old-school, cloud-of-dust runner, not afraid to mix it up, run a guy over, leap, or carry a pile. And in arm-strength and ability to extend plays, he's up there with the best to ever do it. His intelligence and instincts are elite. And his accuracy and timing have improved to a very high level. There really are no holes in his game. Just a football player through and through. And he still plays the game like he's in the backyard with his friends, he has fun (which, of course, makes it more fun for us too). -Shakir is a beast. I don't care what his stats are, or how they compare to other WRs, or what "position" he plays, or what his yards/rec numbers are, etc. Dude just catches everything, always gets extra yards, tough to bring down, shifty, is always available for Josh, is versatile (can play multiple positions, screen plays, run the jet sweep, line up in the backfield). Just a stud. Again, total football player. -Not sure how I can be so angry at a player I love so much. Yes, I'm talking to you Jordan Poyer. I think that hit really shook Keon. Made him a bit skittish, etc. That, plus the offense changing a bit while he was out---going more to Hollins, Samuel, Cooper, the backs---stunted the second half of Coleman's rookie year. But, he seemed to be getting right again towards the end-of-the-year, made a couple of big plays down the stretch. I really think Keon is going to attack the off-season and come back to have a really good sophomore season. Remember, in the two games just before the injury, he had just gone for 170 yards and 1 TD (first 100-yard game). -Man, I forgot until I saw it again that in the Jacksonville game, the Bills scored a TD on all five first half possessions. And each TD was scored by a different Bills player. That is still just crazy. -I'm not counting on it, but man do I hope Curtis Samuel stays healthy and has a great year next year (almost more for the player than the team). I think he still has it in him, so I'm not counting him out yet either. 🤞 -Hot "Homer" take: I think we could have one of the better TE rooms in the league next year. I expect Kincaid to have a bounce back year (plus he's going into year three---a year that many receivers take that next step), Knox will be Knox (which is pretty good), and I really think Davidson is going to be a player. A few interesting notes on Davidson. He was a fifth-round pick by the Vikings in 2021 (opted to forego his redshirt senior year due to changes because of COVID). So, he's a guy that got a bit screwed/set back by the COVID years. He didn't start playing Tight End until his 3rd year in college. He was redshirted his true freshman year (as a punter), and in his redshirt freshman year, was also only a punter (earning 2nd-team All-MIAA conference at the position). The next year he served as punter and backup TE. HIs last year in college (his redshirt junior year), he was named first-team All-MIAA conference at both punter and TE. [So, we have a backup punter on the team at least.] After one year in Minnesota, the Bills have now had three years to groom him as a TE in their system (and with Josh). He looked very good in pre-season last year, and they let Quinton Morris walk. -I will definitely miss Mack Hollins a lot. He was so much fun last year. But, we will probably miss him more than the team does (on the field that is). I expect Coleman to step up next year, hoping Samuel will too, the addition of Palmer, Shakir---there just wouldn't be that many snaps/receptions for Hollins to get (and for the price we would have had to pay---double his last year's salary). 55% of Mack's yards and 60% of his TDs came in the 5 games that Keon was out injured. So, almost 60% of his production came in that 29% (5 games ) of the season. Of course, he did have the big game against KC in the playoffs, was a great blocker in the run game, a spark plug, a character, and just fun to watch. So, he'll definitely be missed, but his production is not irreplaceable by other guys. -I do think we have one of the better RB rooms in the league (overall) currently. I really hope the Bills and James can find a number that works for both of them. Despite having some weaknesses in his game (pass blocking/blitz pickup), it's not every player that can consistently take dump-off passes for 20-30 yards or score 16 TDs. Definitely don't want them to overpay for him, but would love to see him stay in a Bills uni for the next handful of years, if possible (alongside Davis and Johnson). What a fun season it was and it's nice to know we have more of the same coming (hopefully ending on top one of these years).
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These posts made me think about how coaching staffs in the NFL have changed over the years. It was hard to find complete information for all coaching staffs over the years (apparently it is hard to find who all the assistant coaches were back in the day, even into the 1970s---just didn't get their due I guess), but here is some information I found that gives a good overview of things. Per how things are listed, these are coaching staffs only and do not include Strength & Conditioning, trainers, medical staffs, etc. (which have all seen a sizable increase in staffs over the years too). -In the current NFL, teams average 23.7 coaches per team. The 2025 Buffalo Bills have 24 coaches on their staff currently. -In 1958, the two NFL Championship Game teams, the New York Giants and the Baltimore Colts had coaching staffs of 4 and 3 coaches respectively. So, a head coach and 2-3 assistants. -By the merger in 1960, staffs started to grow a bit. The 1960 Packers had 7 coaches total. -George Allen was the first coach to add a Special Teams Coordinator (hiring Dick Vermeil for the post in 1969). -There were no Offensive and Defensive Coordinators until sometime into the 1970s. It was a gradual process. For instance, the 1975 Steelers had a Defensive Coordinator, but no Offensive Coordinator. I wonder if maybe this started with say an offensive head coach (or vise versa), hiring a coordinator for the opposite side of the ball (once coaches started to specialize on one side of the ball or the other). But, not all teams had both OCs and DCs until the late 70s, early 80s. Using the Bills, here is a look at the size of their coaching staffs (as best as I could gather) over the decades (numbers include the head coach, but again no Training/Strength & Conditioning guys): 1960: 4 1970: 6 1980: 11 1990: 12 2000: 14 2010: 18 2020: 26 So, it looks like there was a big bump up in staff sizes in the 1970s, a small bump in the early 2000s, and the largest jump coming in the last 10-15 years.
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Fair enough.
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Yes, of course Josh influences everything. He makes everyone around him (other players, coaches, FO) better (or at least seem better). No question. But, as you said, how much so is almost unquantifiable. It's why the debate still goes on about whether the Patriots success was more Brady or Belichick, etc. But, as I have also pointed out in other threads before, just having an elite QB (or even a top 10 All-Time QB) does not automatically equate to playoff berths every year, let alone, say, bi-annual Super Bowl appearances or whatever. Just ask Drew Brees, Dan Marino, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning. Combined, they played 74 NFL seasons, missing the playoffs in 27 of those years, with 7 Super Bowl appearances, and 4 Super Bowl wins. That means these all-time QBs missed the playoffs for 36% of their careers and did not appear in a Super Bowl for 90.5% of their careers. No matter how good your Quarterback/Coach combo is (and those guys all had excellent coaches), you still need a lot of talent around them to win consistently. Drew Brees and Sean Payton will both be HOFers, yet in 15 seasons together, they missed the playoffs 6 times and only reached the Super Bowl once (and won). As good as Josh is, he is not doing it on his own, as some like to think. As to Free Agency...I agree that Brandon has had a lot of misses over the years, guys that barely ended up even seeing the field sometimes. But, again, we'd have to look at all of his hits and misses (and their contracts, playing time, stats, etc.) and then compare that to other GMs to get an idea of how he's doing overall. I actually have no idea where Brandon would rank if looking only at a GM's free agent success right now. But, I do agree that there is still room for improvement in that department, for sure. But again, sometimes you just get unlucky too (Von's injury). Beane has drafted in the top 10 twice. He picked Josh Allen (at 7) and Ed Oliver (at 9). So, a grand-slam homerun and a solid double or triple. Don't think you can knock those picks too harshly as a pair (though we all wish that Ed had maybe one more level to his game). For reference: according to an article I found, the bust rate for 1st round picks 6-10 is about 35%. And the positive 65% doesn't necessarily mean that they are all All-Pro studs, just that they are at least say solid 5-year starters (per the article's standards). Not sure what the division of studs vs. solid players is in that percentage, but Ed is probably at least somewhere in the middle. So, not a bad pick, just not a home run pick. But how many of that percentage are actually home runs (All-Pros/HOFers) even in that range? I'm guessing here, maybe 10%, 20%? It won't be a high number. So, Ed isn't as bad a pick at 9 as some think, just not the jackpot that you hope for. https://theriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/
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First off, I'm not saying Roseman isn't doing a great job (their World Champs! Again.) and I'm not saying Brandon is better than him. I mean, we could compare them overall as GMs (taking everything into account) if we had the time, but generally winning SBs will give you the nod/edge regardless. I was just pointing out that it's not a fair comparison when it comes to drafting over the last 5 years specifically (as to how many impact players are on the teams through the draft). To say Roseman has drafted better or more impact players when he has had 3 more first round picks than Brandon and three picks in the top 13, when Brandon hasn't had a pick higher than 23, seems obvious. Swap any other two GMs into those positions and the one in Roseman's position will have "drafted better." As to the reason for those higher picks (your question), It's a combination of stuff. In 2020 and 2021, the Eagles season records were 4-11-1 and 9-8. So, in the 2021 and 2022 drafts, they picked 10th and 13th overall (sure there was probably some movement to get to those exact spots, but the reason they were up that high was because of the team's records). Conversely, the Bills records in 2020 and 2021 were 13-3 and 11-6, with the Bills picking 30th and 23rd overall. Just those two picks alone could have made a big difference (especially since one of them was Kaiir, imagine if we had a top 10 pick on the team rather than having had Kaiir?). In the 2023 draft, yes, Roseman made a lot of trades (a big one with NO, and then others) to get up to pick 9 to select Jalen Carter. Not too dissimilar to what Beane did to move up to #7 for Josh in 2018. But for Roseman, it wasn't about getting his QB, it was about going all in. So, we could debate the style of GM'ing. Now I'm sure almost every Bills fan will say I'd take a back-to-back 4-win and then a 9-win season (no playoffs) if it means we win a Super Bowl. Yet, during that two year stretch, most Bills fans would be calling for the HC's and GM's heads. They might not last that extra season to win it all. Look at Siriani, he was on the hot seat in Philly despite making two Super Bowls now. It's kind of that old debate of is it worth it to go all in and then suck for a couple of years, and then try it again? Or instead, try to remain one of the best teams each year and get more shots at it. I'm not a fan of the all in (cause if it doesn't work, you have to rebuild), but it has worked for the Rams and the Eagles at least. So, I don't know. And I guess we'll see if Roseman can keep this current Philly team together (at the top) for a while now or not. Look, the run that Roseman has had the last 8 years is amazing. Three SB appearances and 2 SB wins. That run began 8 years into his tenure as a GM. Brandon has been a GM for 7 years thus far. Roseman has also had 5 losing seasons and 6 years of no playoffs in his 15 years. Also, Philly made the playoffs in that span 3 times with 9 wins and twice with 10 wins. Not sure you're making it that way in the AFC. Again, this is in no way to disparage Roseman, he's got two Super Bowls and will probably be in the HOF because of it, just pointing out that a lot more goes into comparing GMs than just how many pro-bowlers are on the team currently. And ultimately, if we have to use the best 2-3 GMs in the league as a comparison to Beane (to try and show he's maybe not at their level), doesn't that kind of mean he must be pretty near the top of GMs too? Otherwise, why wouldn't people point to worse GMs to say, see Brandon isn't even as good as this guy.