folz

He threw a punch at TE Zach Davidson because Zach was aggressively blocking through the whistle.

If there was collusion, i.e. if the league, commissioner, other owners all said don't draft him, then why did Cleveland draft him? Someone might say, no one should draft him, I don't like his attitude, and some others may agree, but what are the consequences for going against the collusion? For there to be collusion, then everyone would have to agree/cooperate and/or there would have to be consequences if you don't go along with the plan. Why would Cleveland go against the league then? And is it really collusion if he actually got drafted? Obviously Cleveland did not participate in the collusion. Was the collusion specific? No one draft him in the first three rounds, after that whatever. Take a team like the Bills, say Josh was 10 years older and we were looking for a replacement to groom. Is there any way that Beane and McDermott are going with Sanders? No, not a Bills DNA type of guy. How many other GMs and coaches think the same way? There did not need to be collusion for this to happen. Now, I don't put anything "negative" past the NFL at this point. I'm sure there are tons of questionable issues and practices in the league. But in this situation, I really don't see it. I think he could have refused to workout at the combine, but if he went in with a good attitude and took the interviews seriously, he could have maximized his draft status. But honestly, how many teams want a guy with apparent attitude and/or ego problems? Or who tells you (in words or actions) that he doesn't want to play for your team? Remember a franchise QB is the face of your franchise. They are the ones on TV and at community and charitable events representing your organization the most. You want them to be a leader on the field and in the locker room. If he can't rally his teammates around him (because they don't like him or he's an egomaniac) and there isn't cohesion in the locker room, you aren't going to be very successful, even if the guy is very talented. We aren't talking about a WR or DE with some questions about character/attitude, we are talking about the QB, the #1 guy you need on board and leading the other guys. I mean, where in the world is Josh Rosen? How about Ryan Leaf? or Vince Young? or Jeff George? They may not have been good enough in the long run, skill-wise...but their attitudes and temperaments definitely made sure their careers were short and unsuccessful. And obviously the teams that drafted them regretted it, much more so than just a standard nice, good attitude guy bust (like an EJ Manuel or JP Losman)---because they bring so many headaches on top of not playing well. No one wants one of those guys...especially if he isn't head-and-shoulders above the rest talent-wise. It's just that simple. But as others have said, Sanders is in the league, so he has every opportunity now to prove everyone wrong about him or to be able to mature and grow into a franchise QB. I don't expect it to happen, but that's only up to Shedeur and Cleveland at this point, not any of us.

It's probably tough to determine how much is scheme, how much is play calling, how much is personnel, how much is player execution, etc. But, I'd say the aging/loss of Hyde and Poyer and the fact that our two best coverage LBs (our starters: Milano and Bernard) have missed 32 games over the last two years is probably as big of a reason over the last two seasons. Not the only reason, but by no means insignificant. Was just trying to note that the core scheme can win Super Bowls (Spagnuolo) if employed properly. And again, considering the last three times we faced KC in the playoffs, at the end of regulation they were only up by 6 points (across 3 games), tells me that even if we didn't play great defense in those games, we have still been so close to the promised land. If the coin flip goes the other way in 2020, if Bass makes the field goal in 2023, if the refs give Josh the first down or Kincaid catches that ball. People may not love our defense, but it can get us to where we need to go. We just need to improve the pass rush and hopefully have no liabilities in the secondary (we'll see how that goes this season---it is a little bit of a concern still). But, you raised a legitimate question. Only 5 teams (Vikings, Chargers, Colts, Bucs, and Falcons) ran less man coverage than the Bills last year. But again, how much of that is personnel? I'm sure McD took fewer risks with Douglas and Hamlin being in the secondary (as opposed to Hyde, Poyer, and a healthy Tre or whatever) and not having a great pass rush...while Spags could take more risks (both with man coverage and blitzing) with an All-Pro corner like McDuffie (who often followed the best opposing receiver last season), and a pass rusher like Chris Jones, etc. The other question would be, can our CBs be successful playing more man? Is that in their skillset? Are they good enough for it? Or would we have guys getting burned without the zone scheme to protect (other guys in position to make the tackle if the completion is made/the CB gets burned). There is also this: https://www.paraballnotes.com/blog/man-vs-zone-defense-which-one-is-most-efficient-against-passing-plays "Undoubtedly, zone defense has outperformed man defense when facing passing plays. Teams have allowed 10.4% fewer EPA per play and 22.8% less WPA per play while using zone coverage compared to man coverage. It’s evident that NFL teams have noticed this performance gap: the proportion of man defense usage against passing plays has declined from a peak of 37.2% in 2019 to a low of 28.5% in 2023." Man coverage dipped even a bit further in 2024, with a league average of 27.6%. But, yes, the Bills were still on the low end of that average last year. So, who knows for sure Oldmanfan...I'm just throwing information out there that I found on the net and then what I see with the team. But I am by no means a football savant or anything.

To your first point: If you add up the records of all of the Bills' and Chiefs' playoff opponents over the last 6 years, it looks like this: Chiefs' playoff opponents: 216-99 (in 19 games) Bills' playoff opponents: 147-69 (13 games) That means: Chiefs' playoff opponents combined average record is 11.37 wins and 5.21 losses with a 68.57% win percentage. Bills' playoff opponents combined average record is 11.31 wins and 5.31 losses with a 68.06% win percentage. So, I'm not sure that you can use strength of opponent as an argument really. And I'm not sure what your other two points are arguing: -What do KC's Super Bowl blowouts have to do with it. Are you saying because so many points were scored in one game that all of those points shouldn't count? Or that because it is the SB, it means they are superior opponents. Yes, Philly was 14-3 last year, but Tampa was only 11-5 in 2020. In the same years, 2024 and 2020, the Bills lost to KC with records of 14-2 and 15-2. -He also didn't mention that the Bills held the Ravens to 3 points (2020) and Denver to 7 points (2024). Please do go on...

Apologies in advance for a very long post. This idea that McDermott scapegoats guys or sets them up as fall guys needs to be retired. He's only ever trying to make the team better (and obviously he's not going to fire himself). But to think that he sets guys up so when the team fails he can project blame on to them and throw them to the wolves is such the opposite of who Sean is as a man. After almost 9 years coaching this team, Bills fans should know that about his character. I posted this in another thread recently, but think it should be repeated as so many posters continually say that basically we didn't make any changes on defense except for adding Bosa: This off-season, the Bills hired Ryan Nielsen as a senior defensive assistant and Jason Rebrovich as assistant DL coach. -Ryan Nielsen was the DC for Jacksonville last year, he was the DC and DL coach for Atlanta prior to that, and in his stint in New Orleans, he was DL coach, co-DC, and assistant Head Coach. In college, he played as a defensive tackle for USC. He has coached for 13 years in college and 8 years in the NFL. -Jason Rebrovich started his pro-coaching career in Buffalo, eventually becoming both a DL coach and an outside LB coach for the Bills, he then went to Jax and became their DL coach, and then in Green Bay, he was outside LBs coach, DL coach, and pass rush specialist. He's coached 12 years in college and 12 years in the league. During the Giants preseason game, they talked a little bit about bringing Nielsen in and said that he was brought in specifically to help the D-line and pass rush and that he would probably help Sean install more 5-man fronts and other variations. And obviously, Rebrovich (as DL coach, outside LB coach, and Pass rush specialist) was brought in to help the pass-rush scheme and to help the young pass rushers develop. The Bills brought in 6 FAs on the DL/outside LB: Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, Larry Ogunjobi, Shaq Thompson, Casey Rodgers, and Marcus Harris. The Bills drafted 3 new guys for the DL: Sanders, Jackson, Walker. They also added a first round cornerback (Hairston), a 5th round CB (Hancock), and a 6th round CB (Strong), and brought back Tre and Dane (however you feel about them). I'd say that is a lot more change than just adding Bosa. Kind of seems like you guys aren't really paying attention. Spagnolo and McDermott are both proteges of Jim Johnson (see below). And as far as McD not having it in him to change, see above, regarding the two new coaching hires. I am no big Xs and Os guy, so those who are more knowledgeable, please correct me if I am wrong, or where I might be wrong. But the idea that the scheme is the problem and won't work in the playoffs made me think about the fact that Sean and Steve Spagnuolo were both proteges of Jim Johnson. Now, it has been many years since they worked with Jim, so I'm sure they picked up other nuances elsewhere along the way, or developed their own wrinkles. But I wondered, if at the core, it is a similar system. I couldn't find anything definitive comparing the two teams/systems or specifically stating that they both run the old Johnson system (or a variance of it), but here are a few things I found: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Spagnuolo "Spagnuolo learned under Philadelphia defensive coach Jim Johnson, and shares the same aggressive, blitz-heavy approach as his mentor. Spagnuolo uses a 4–3 base defense with a heavy emphasis on multiple blitz packages, including corner and safety blitzes." https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2023/2/8/23591081/chiefs-eagles-super-bowl-lvii-quarterbacks-changed-steve-spagnuolos-career “Steve’s very creative [and] smart,” observed Andy Reid. “A real tribute to Springfield College. He’s been in the league, and he had a good tutor in Jim Johnson when he was young. So he’s been able to build off of that scheme [and] be very innovative with it.” So, it does appear that his core is still the Jim Johnson system (like Sean). https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5224800/2024/01/26/steve-spagnuolo-chiefs-defense-nfl-playoffs/ "Spagnuolo’s best blend of producing an effective pass rush, exceptional coverage and timely blitzes occurs when he employs dime personnel — six defensive backs, one linebacker and four linemen, a personnel grouping he used most in the league." "'Spags is a wizard, man,' defensive end Mike Danna said. 'He’s got tons of blitzes, and he knows how to get after a quarterback.' The Chiefs blitzed on third down at the fifth-highest rate in the league (39.3 percent)." I couldn't find a 3rd down blitz percentage for Buffalo last year (if anyone else can find it, would be interesting to see...but my gut tells me ean blitzes less). "Kansas City had just 17 takeaways in the regular season, tied for the fifth-fewest in the league. But Chiefs defenders are just as happy getting a third- or fourth-down stop as they are generating turnovers because of one reason: They have Mahomes, the league’s best quarterback. 'The ability to get stops and prevent first downs is more predictive than the ability to get takeaways,' Schatz said. 'Takeaways are hugely important, but they’re not as predictive. If what you want is consistent defense, being able to get stops is more important.' They also talked about him disguising coverages and blitzing CBs/safeties. Ok, so the Bills run a lot of dime package as well. McD also blitzes corners and safeties and disguises his coverage (when he's got the players to do so). The Chiefs played 35% man coverage and 65% zone coverage in 2024, while the Bills played 25% man coverage and 75% zone coverage. So, they appear to be running a very similar system with the main differences being a 10% difference in man/zone coverage, a higher focus on getting off the field on 3rd down rather than getting turnovers, and Spags is a "wizard" with blitzes. (I'm not saying McD is as good as Spags, just trying to assess if they are running a similar system.) As far as turnovers, some say the Bills can't repeat the turnover ratio from last year, well, that is more on Josh than the defense as the defense has been 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, and 3rd in takeaways over the last 5 years. So, Sean's defense is very good at creating turnovers. But is the Chiefs philosophy on that better? And Spags may be a wizard at blitz packages, but it also helps to have a player like Chris Jones (which McD has not had). Hopefully Bosa can at least help in that category this year (what could have been if Von didn't get injured...he was playing really well his first year with the Bills). Plus, as I said, Sean brought in those two new coaches to help with the blitz packages/pass rush. He is at least trying to improve where we have been lacking (we'll see if it all works, coaching, new players, etc.). But, at the core, it appears they run a similar system. So, I don't think the Bills defensive system is incapable of winning in the playoffs or against good teams or needs to be scrapped, we just need to improve in certain areas (mainly rushing the QB). As far as third downs go, the Bills were terrible last year (30th place) and mediocre in 2023 (18th place). But how much of that was just adapting without Hyde and Poyer (and add in the weak pass rush). But, in 5 of the prior 6 years (2017-2022), they finished 11th or higher in third down percentage (with four top 10 finishes and a first place finish in 2021). So the system is capable of getting stops, we just haven't done it well the last two years (again, is that more personnel?). Obviously fixing the pass rush and adding a 1st round corner were the #1 priorities this year. Unfortunately safety may have to wait until next year (if Cole doesn't come on). But I don't think you can underestimate how much aging/moving on from Poyer and Hyde affected things the last two years defensively. The safeties at least won't be worse than last year, because even if we have to start Damar, he and Rapp will have more experience in the scheme and with each other (not ideal, but not a total disaster). Let's hope the pass rush works. But, yeah, having said all of that, I do not think the scheme (overall) is the problem. It seems more personnel to me. Not that we don't have good personnel, but we have not had that elite pass rusher and/or (for the last two years) the type of young, healthy safeties that allow you to take more risks. We can talk philosophy a bit in regards to Sean (amount and type of blitzes, emphasis on turnovers, etc.), but overall, over the last 8 years, I think Sean and the system have proven very competent and capable of winning. Yes, we have had let downs in the playoffs and areas we need to improve, but we have consistently been a good defensive team under McDermott. Of course, I'd take a little more aggressiveness...and hopefully we'll see that this year with the DL improvements.

Justin Simmons is 31 years old. He's going into year 10 of his NFL career (8 years in Denver, 1 year in ATL). He played for Atlanta last year. He had 62 tackles, 2 INTs, and 7 Passes defended. From 2019-2023, he either made the pro bowl and/or 2nd team All-Pro (AP) each season. At the start of free agency, he was looking for a two-year deal worth about $10-14 million per year. I'm sure that number has gone down, considering it's August and the season is almost upon us. He played on a one-year deal with Atlanta last year for $8 million. SportTrac currently has his market value at $5,784,805. Would be great to have him, but money and age are a concern. Sounds like his coverage ability has fallen off a bit in the last couple of years (according to some). Yet, he'd probably still be an improvement (even if he's slowing down). If Beane can find the money, I wouldn't be opposed to a 1-year deal. https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/free-agency-3-safeties-bills-should-pursue-following-sunday-defensive-meltdown This article suggests two other candidates, besides Simmons: 1. Jordan Poyer and 2. Marcus Maye. I don't think we'd bring Poyer back, there is a reason we moved on when we did. He did still have 98 tackles and three passes defended for the Dolphins last year---but it seems that most Dolphins fans were not thrilled with his play last year (despite the big tackle number). Poyer is 34 years old. Maye is 32 years old and the last time he started a full season was 2020. He played for two teams last year (Miami and then LAC) with 4 starts, 42 tackles, and 2 PD. Not really sure if he is even an upgrade from Hamlin at this point. In 2020, his last full season as a starter, he had 88 tackles, 11 PD, 2 INTs, 2 sacks, 2 FF, 1 FR (but that was 5 years ago). Last year, Damar had 89 tackles, 5 PD, 2 INTs, 1 FR (for reference). Other FA options: Marcus Williams. 28 years old. 5 years in NO, 3 in Baltimore. Good player, but has missed 21 of his last 51 games. Vonn Bell. 30 years old. Played for NO, CIN, and CAR. Again good player. Missed 4 games in 2023, started 11 of 17 games last year. Tashaun Gipson. 35 years old. Played in 9 games for San Fran last year, only starting 1 game. John Johnson III. 29 years old. Played for Rams and Browns. Some good years stat-wise, but last year only played two games (fractured scapula) and only started 8 games in 2023. There is a reason most of these guys are still available: age/injuries/slowing down. There is always a chance of picking up someone after team cuts, but from the few articles I could find on the subject, it does not appear that any higher-end safeties (or better than what we already have) are expecting the chop. But there could be a surprise. But yeah, it doesn't look like there is much help out there, even if we had the money. Simmons is probably the best of the bunch, if we were to bring someone in. But again, he too seems to be slowing down a bit, so even he is a bit of a gamble at this point (at somewhere between the $6-8 million price tag he'd carry). Hoping the light comes on for Cole sooner rather than later. 🤞

In the '80s (in WNY, Rochester), two of my best High School friends were Dolphins fans...just because they didn't want to root for the same team as everyone else. Assume they became Dolphins fans when they were like 9-10 years old (like 1979-1980ish). Never really understood that mindset. Like they were somehow cooler for not "following the crowd." Yet they chose a big market team that dominated in the '70s (their childhood) and was purposefully the Bills rival. And yes, if you weren't a Bills fan or a Dolphins fan in that era, then you were probably a Cowboys fan. My other best high school friend was a Cowboys fan. Just because of the whole "America's Team" labeling and their success in the '70s. He actually wasn't that big of a football fan, didn't watch a ton of games or know a lot of players, etc....typical of many (non-Texan) Cowboys fans of that era. Added note about being a Bills fan in the 70s and 80s: I always hated when the press gave Russ Brandon credit for marketing the Bills regionally...and they would always talk about Rochester first (because he went to St. John Fisher, etc.). Yes, he brought camp to Rochester, but outside of those handful of contrarian Dolphins fans or whatever, everyone in Rochester rooted for the Bills and were going to Bills games in the 70s and 80s (20-30 years prior to Brandon having anything to do with the team). He did not make Rochester a Bills town...it already was. Heck, we used to drive all the way to Fredonia from Rochester just to go to training camp and the I-90 would be packed with cars with Bills stickers in the window or a Bills license plate, or flying a Bills flag.

I have come here to drink coffee and kick ass, and I'm all out of coffee.

I use stats all the time, so I'm not knocking you 808, but sometimes they don't tell the whole picture. You would have to look back at each game to see why the scores were what they were. Maybe they score more against the Bills, not because our defense is so much worse than other playoff team's defenses, but because they have to in order to out-duel Josh. In the other games against weaker opponents, maybe they get the lead and then take their foot off the gas. Maybe they play more conservatively against lesser teams, but need to be more aggressive against the Bills, etc., etc. If they are up, maybe they just run the ball in the 4th quarter to run out the clock, where in the Bills game, Josh just scored again in the 4th and Pat has to respond. I just don't think that stat can really be used to some how definitively say the Bills defense is so much worse than every other playoff team's defense (who has played KC). And other posters keep mentioning the defensive scheme as the problem. I am no defensive guru or Xs and Os guy (so those more knowledgeable please correct me if I am wrong), but doesn't Sean run a variation of the old Jim Johnson defense? And aren't Steve Spagnola, John Harbaugh, and Ron Rivera also Jim Johnson proteges? So, I would assume they have a very similar philosophy to Sean on defense (again please correct me if I'm wrong). So, I'm thinking that the defensive scheme/style can probably get you a Super Bowl. A good point brought up though is not getting pressure from the front four. Let me ask this. If in the last few battles with KC, we swapped Chris Jones for one of our DEs, do you think that would make a difference? Isn't that why Beane brought in Von and now Bosa? What if Von didn't get injured? He was looking great at the start of his stint with the Bills. And as Bills fans, I find it hard that some don't see the influence of the league at times. Yes, I mean the refs. Let's face it, the NFL wanted Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl last year. And too many people, in my mind, just discount all of the other circumstances and bad luck: the Damar incident, the blizzard, the injuries, the coin flip, etc. There are sooooo many reasons why Josh has not made a Super Bowl yet, way beyond just coaching and personnel decisions.

In his first seven years (college and pro), Dalvin Cook had 1,693 touches. In his first seven years (college and pro), James Cook has 927 touches. [At Jimbo's rate over his first 7 seasons (927 touches divided by 7), he averaged 132 touches per year. With Dalvin's 1,693 touches at Jimbo's 132 touches per year, that would equal 5.8 more seasons of touches for Dalvin, at Cook's rate...or almost 13 years worth of touches (rather than 7) at James' touch count.] In year two and three in the pros, James Cook averaged 260 touches/season. In years three to six in the pros, Dalvin Cook was averaging 314 touches/season (Didn't include rookie years because they both started off a bit slow/not representative of the rest of their careers) Plus, with Davis and Johnson sharing the backfield, the Bills never have to overwork Jimbo. Whereas Dalvin was always the main workhorse in his backfield. And the Bills are pretty smart about taking care of their players (not overworking, especially the vets or players coming back from injuries), so there is a good chance that James won't fall off a cliff at 27 like his brother did. Very happy for this signing. Yes, his blitz pickup isn't the best/he doesn't play every down (because we have guys with better skillsets for that), but I don't think you can underestimate a guy who can hit home runs. Sure his batting average might be lower than your lead off hitter, but when he crushes that 3-run homer in the 8th inning of a playoff game, you know why you have him and why the team is paying him what they are. Go Bills!

Never watched Hard Knocks before, but of course I am watching it as a Bills fan. I won't say that I'm disappointed in anything Bills related, as I remember a time when I would get excited if they even showed a Bills hat in an NFL apparel commercial (because we were so far off the radar), but I have to say that the Bills own media team puts out better videos than these first two episodes of HK (Beyond the Red and Blue, or whatever). Of course, our media team knows the team better and aren't aiming at a national audience, but they just do a great job, imo. Hope HK picks up for the remaining episodes. Wish they'd show even more meetings, guys hanging out at camp (after practice), more position battles, that type of stuff rather than the pre-packaged stories.

Growth mindset. And McDermott and Beane are putting their money where their mouth is. This off-season, the Bills hired Ryan Nielsen as a senior defensive assistant and Jason Rebrovich as assistant DL coach. -Ryan Nielsen was the DC for Jacksonville last year, he was the DC and DL coach for Atlanta prior to that, and in his stint in New Orleans, he was DL coach, co-DC, and assistant Head Coach. In college, he played as a defensive tackle for USC. He has coached for 13 years in college and 8 years in the NFL. -Jason Rebrovich started his pro-coaching career in Buffalo, eventually becoming both a DL coach and an outside LB coach for the Bills, he then went to Jax and became their DL coach, and then in Green Bay, he was outside LBs coach, DL coach, and pass rush specialist. He's coached 12 years in college and 12 years in the league. During the preseason game, they talked a little bit about bringing Nielsen in and said that he was brought in specifically to help the D-line and pass rush and that he would probably help Sean install more 5-man fronts and other variations. And obviously, Rebrovich (as DL coach, outside LB coach, and Pass rush specialist) was brought in to help the scheme and to help the young pass rushers develop. The Bills brought in 6 FAs on the DL/outside LB: Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, Larry Ogunjobi, Shaq Thompson, Casey Rodgers, and Marcus Harris. The Bills drafted 3 new guys for the DL: Sanders, Jackson, Walker. And Dwayne Carter and Javon Solomon were drafted in 2024, so just going into year 2. So, nine new players, two second-year players, and two new (additional) coaches (to help Bobby/Marcus West with the defensive line/pass rush). The Bills definitely did not stay pat. They made a concerted effort to help the D-line/pass rush. We just have to give it some time to all come together. Don't judge anything off of the first preseason game with no scheming. If the D-line isn't better this year (which I'm almost positive that it will be), it will not be from a lack of trying/trying to do some things differently. Heck, just Bosa's presence alone (if he can stay healthy) should help to free up the other guys to eat (could help to elevate guys like Rousseau, Oliver, Epenesa, etc). Just give it all a little bit of time. Hopefully all of the changes will eventually start paying off.

Tough to say anyone had a good game or bad game based on such limited playing time...but these are the guys who flashed for me. First off, Milano, Taron Johnson, and Ty Johnson all looked like they were in mid-season form already. Happy about that. It was a little slow going at the start for both QBs, but in the end, Trubisky and White both played pretty well. Even Buechele led what was almost a game-winning drive. But these are the guys who flashed (positively) for me: WR Tyrell Shavers RB Frank Gore, Jr. LB Joe Andreessen LB Jimmy Ciarlo TE Stephen Gosnell WR Kristian Wilkerson CB/S Cam Lewis TE Keleki Latu (only one catch, but he also had a great block, and a great special teams tackle) and shout out to Keonta Jenkins for leading the team in tackles (with 5 solo tackles) and Te'Cory Couch who had a couple of nice pass breakups.

I often hear that Reid continuously "out-coaches" McDermott, i.e., that McD is the problem. But, that is really hard for me to totally buy when their head-to-head record is 5-5 and three of McD's losses were in OT, by 3 points, and by 3 points (that's a few plays away from an 8-5 record vs. Reid and probably a couple of SB appearances). And that isn't even taking into account how much the refs helped the Chiefs in both AFC Championship games (2020 and 2024). And do you know what the total points for each team is across those 10 matchups? It is Buffalo 258 points and Kansas City 253 points. I mean that is about as even as you can get (vs. now one of the NFL's top dynasties and greatest coach/QB duos). Is there another coach that has fared better against Reid over the last eight years? (yes, I know McD has Josh---but Reid has Mahomes; why is it to some that Reid is a great coach regardless of his QB, but McD is only a good coach because of his QB? Seems like a double standard to me.) I tried to look for Reid's record versus all other coaches from 2017 until now (to see if anyone has fared as well as McD has vs. Reid), but I couldn't find anything that kind of summarized it all. And I wasn't going to take the time to look it all up. But suffice to say, McD has probably had more success vs. Reid in this current era than any other coach. So, again, who are we going to get to replace McD that would automatically be able to come in and "outcoach" Reid or whatever? I did find an article about Andy Reid versus his former assistants: Sean McDermott: 5-5 All other Reid assistants: 5-19 (John Harbaugh, Steve Spagnuolo, Doug Peterson, Ron Rivera, Matt Nagy, Pat Shumur, Todd Bowles, Brad Childress, and Leslie Frasier). At this point, Sean has bought himself at least two more seasons minimum...but I would say his seat isn't even luke-warm. People act as if building a culture like we currently have with Sean and Brandon is easy. How many coaches did we see try to change the losing culture during the drought era (or how many coaches have tried in Cleveland, with the Jets, etc.). It is no small feat what this current regime has done for this team: culture, stability, winning, family atmosphere, perennial SB contender, a team that FAs want to come to, that former players want to return to, a team that is fun to root for and that your kids can look up to, etc., etc. And I don't think that is as easily replaceable as some people think. For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?

Yes, at this point (in this era), our biggest rival would have to be the Chiefs. During the Pats run, I would say it was the Pats...but I'm sure the Pats would never have classified the Bills as a rival during that era (because they mostly just kicked our butts). But believe me, the rivalry with the Dolphins in the '80s and '90s was very real and very heated (see Bryan Cox, for one). It was as good as any NFC North rivalry back in the day. Kelly vs. Marino; Shula vs. Marv; a warm, weather vacation city vs. a snowy rust belt city; 0-fer the 70s, etc. And from 1990-1998, the Dolphins and Bills met in the playoffs 4 times (on top of playing each other twice a year in the regular season).

I have been on the Coleman train all off-season, expecting him to have a very nice sophomore year. As to Moore, I would agree that he hasn't reached his draft status, but I would hardly call him a bust yet. He's only 25 years old, going into his 5th year. And I know it has been repeated often, but his first two teams are probably two of the worst run organizations in the league and both with QB issues during Moore's tenure. Let's look at the QBs: Player (number of games played with Moore---any game time, not just starts): Zach Wilson (22 games) Dorian Thompson Robinson (15 games) DeShaun Watson (13 games) Joe Flacco (12 games) Jameis Winston (12 games) Mike White (8 games) P.J. Walker (6 games) Josh Johnson (3 games) Chris Steveler (2 games) Jeff Driscoll (1 game) Billy Zappe (1 game) So, not only are there no good QBs on that list (old Flacco doesn't count), but in 68 regular season games played, Moore has had 11 different QBs throwing the ball to him. That is like a different QB every 6 games. So, he not only had bad QB play, but there was never any consistency on who was throwing the ball to him. We hear all of the time that it takes time for QBs and WRs to get on the same page. How was he ever able to do that? Plus, both of those offenses overall were terrible and didn't move the ball or score well (those 4 offenses ranked: 26th, 25th, 16th, and 28th). And yes, two different teams and two different OCs in 4 years. Tough to fully succeed under those circumstances, I would think. Doesn't mean he will now, but I'm definitely not going to write him off so easily. Despite all of that, he has 2,233 yards and 10 TDs in 4 years...or approx. 558 yards and 3 TDs per season over that stretch. Again, not great, but also not a bust. I don't expect him to all of a sudden become an All-Pro, or to even be starting, but I'm keeping an open mind and hoping for him to up his game with Josh at QB. Even if he is only WR 5 or whatever...I think he can help the team this year. [Edited to include Jameis Winston and Bally Zappe, which I originally, mistakenly, left off.]

Um, yes. Go ask Philly fans. Prior to Mahomes starting for him, Andy Reid was 11-13 (.458) in the playoffs over 19 years, with 1 SB appearance, no wins. Are you telling me he didn't make any mistakes in those 13 losses? Is Sirianni a way better coach than Reid for beating him so badly in the Super Bowl? Did Reid make any mistakes in last year's SB? Now, I'm not saying McD is as good or better than Reid, or that Reid isn't a great coach, I'm just saying that all coaches make mistakes. I know the following are mostly old articles, but this idea that McDermott is the only very good coach to make mistakes, or to have made a mistake in the playoffs is ridiculous (hell, look at Sean Payton's playoff losses for one). Name the best 5 coaches of all time and I'm sure that we could still find playoff losses in their careers where they made mistakes. Time to let "13 seconds" go guys. It's almost 4 years ago now. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/151719-evaluating-andy-reid-the-worst-decisions-of-reids-coaching-career https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/nfl/chiefs-reid-trying-to-rewrite-history-of-playoff-letdowns/ https://atozsports.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-news/chiefs-hc-andy-reid-makes-major-mistake-second-straight-game/ https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/1/18/18185839/andy-reid-kansas-city-chiefs-clock-mismanagement-timeouts https://slate.com/culture/2019/01/andy-reid-chiefs-timeouts-clock-management.html Yeah, it is kind of silly to debate this anymore as everyone seems to be pretty entrenched in their viewpoint and nothing will be answered definitively either way unless McD wins a SB with the Bills or is fired. And of course, no Bills fan is going to put the playoff losses on Josh, he's been spectacular in the playoffs...but it is also foolhardy to try and put the Bills' playoff losses down to just one other thing too. Like it's coaching alone or injuries alone. What has been the problem for the Bills in the playoffs? A. Youth, inexperience (in the early years) B. The Chiefs Dynasty C. Injuries D. Damar Hamlin incident/Blizzard E. Coaching mistakes F. Player Execution G. The Defense H. The NFL/Referees I. Not being stout enough to handle bigger, stronger, more aggressive playoff teams (in the Diggs' years) J. Not running the ball enough/being balanced enough to close out games, etc. (Daboll years) K. Luck (coin flips, bad bounces, untimely injuries, etc.) L. Lack of Depth on the roster at times M. All of the Above (and probably more) The answer is obviously M. Time to lick our wounds, put the past behind us, and look forward to taking another crack at it with a hopefully improved team and our generational QB who is a hell of a lot of fun to watch. I mean at the end of regulation in our last three playoff losses to the Chiefs, K.C. was ahead by 6 points. Six points across three games to a team that has appeared in 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls. That is literally like 3 plays away from three Super Bowl appearances (one good kick, one coin toss, one catch---and that's not even bringing the refs into the conversation). We are so close, and the Chiefs aren't quite what they used to be (though I am not writing them off yet, by any means---did that for too many years with the Pats already). But our time is coming. Billeve!

No comeback, huh? We played them twice in 2024. We were 1-1. The Bills won their game by 9 points. The Chiefs won their game by 3 points. The Bills scored 525 points last year. The Chiefs scored 385 points last year. The Bills point differential was +157. The Chiefs point differential was +59. The Chiefs got a ton of help from the refs all season long to get that record and #1 seed. Everyone talked about it all last year. And they got help from the refs in the playoff game vs. the Bills. Having a hard time seeing that it would take 3-4 more elite players to ever beat KC. Even in the playoff losses, our last 3 losses to K.C. were by a total of 6 points (in regulation). Six points across 3 games. One dropped ball, one missed field goal, one coin toss that didn't go our way, one (or multiple) bad calls by the refs. This idea that we are so far away from teams like KC and Philly is not reality dude no matter how much you repeat it. And you can use the excuse that we were so efficient last year (regarding turnovers, etc.) that we squeezed everything out last year and couldn't get more. But, we were not as efficient in the categories you mentioned in 2021 and 2023, yet we played KC to overtime and another 3-point loss. So, the idea that we were lucky to get as far as we did last year just because we were efficient and we can't repeat it is silly. First of all, why can't we repeat it? And secondly, we have basically been reaching the same spot (divisional round/AFC Championship) for 5 years. Yet last year was the only overly efficient year. So, it's not just that is it?

We were a better team than the Chiefs last year and I believe we would have fared much better against Philly than K.C. did...whether that equated to a win or not, who knows. But I do know that the refs played a big part in the AFC Championship game. If that game was called fairly (and the NFL didn't care about Taylor Swift being at the Super Bowl) we wouldn't have needed to squeeze 3 more points out, we would have already been ahead and headed to the Super Bowl. If you think that the refs didn't influence that game, well the only thing I can say to you is that you aren't a serious person. Plus. over the last four seasons, we have faced Kansas City seven times. Do you know what the point differential is for those seven games (at the end of regulation): it is Buffalo +28. Despite losing 3 of those 7 games, we scored 28 points more than K.C. across those games. So, tell me again how we couldn't dare to muster 3 more points against the Chiefs without 3-4 more elite players. And let's not pretend like the Eagles were the greatest team we have seen in years and were completely unbeatable and out of the Bills' league. Team Record Points For Points Against Point Dif Eagles 14-3 463 303 +160 Bills 13-4* 525 368 +157 The Chiefs point differential last year was +59. Almost 100 points less that the Bills and Eagles. *Obviously we would have been 14-3 as well if we didn't rest our starters in week 17. Plus we beat Baltimore in the playoffs (the team that many were predicting to go all the way or considered the best team in the league by many), then lost to a team that has been to 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls by 3 points. I honestly don't think we are as far away as you believe. And we have significantly improved the D-line, WR room, and DBs. I'm sure you do not think we have added any elite players this offseason, so what do you expect for this season. We shouldn't even have a chance to contend this year (according to your standard), damn I wonder if we'll even make the playoffs...I don't know, somehow I think we will be right there in the mix again. My bet is that with the new stadium being built that the Bills will finally win their Super Bowl either this season or next...without adding 4 more elite players

Following Promo's note, I think we often just point to other GM's hits and think that that GM is better (or drafts better than Beane), without looking at their overall drafts and comparing them in totality. Or comparing total hits and misses, etc. We know all about other team's hits because those guys are playing, but we don't remember all of their busts, or players that washed out, or were cut. And we don't always take into context things like draft position, team needs, etc. We are way more critical of Beane than we are of other GMs (not surprising, as we are Bills fans and focus our attention on the Bills). For instance, whenever we talk about this, we will say things like "well, besides Josh." Almost as if we aren't giving Beane credit for Josh. When a fan of another team looks at Beane, they may be saying, why can't our GM find a franchise QB, or hit a home run like that guy did (but we almost discount it). It's said all of the time that a GM's most important job is finding his QB. And, stuff like, over the last three years, the Eagles' average draft position has been pick 113, the Bills' average draft position has been pick 140. That makes a difference. Now, I'm not totally disagreeing with WeckMonster, in that I think most Bills fans would agree that Beane has not hit many home runs at the top of the draft and it would be a big boost for the team if he found more impact players in the first two rounds. But I also realize there is context to it and no GM hits home runs on every round 1 and 2 pick. Your standard of every 2nd round pick being a year one starter and every 3rd round pick being a starter by year two is incredibly high. I think if you look around the league, you will be hard pressed to find a GM that does that year in and year out. Plus, how stacked is your team? It's a lot harder for a 2nd or 3rd rounder to get playing time on a Super Bowl contender than on a team in rebuild mode. Plus, a lot of the true impact players are gone by say picks 26-28, and those that are left are obviously not guarantees (or they would be drafted higher), so you're trying to pick that special guy out of say 15 other guys who all tested well and had great college stats. Could Beane be doing better at the top of his drafts, Yes, of course. But, overall, he has done pretty darn good by this organization and built a very good and very deep team (not every team has the depth that we do). Another factor is fans being impatient with the development of players. When I was young, we understood that outside of the guys at the top of the first round, most players took 2-3 years to develop. Yes, it would be great if your rookies had an impact in the playoffs their first year, but just because they didn't in year one doesn't mean that they won't in year two or year three. That is why we don't evaluate drafts for 3 years out (like the OP looking at the 2022 draft now). And I'd actually say that Cook did have a pretty big impact in the playoffs (278 yards, 3 TDs, 5.1 per carry), oh and Bernard (21 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR, 2 PD), oh and Torrence (starting OG), Kincaid didn't have big stats (71 yds and 1 TD)...but he was starting. As far as the rookies, you have to weigh in how the injuries impacted the trajectory of Coleman's and Carter's seasons, and Cole just wasn't ready yet. I mean, if you are even writing off Beane's good picks (Cook, Bernard, Torence...at least), of course he will pale in comparison to other GMs. Interesting to note about if we went with Mel Kiper's picks: Kiper's picks for the Bills: last three years (I could only find his first round mocks---so 2nd rounders not included) 2022: Kaiir Elam 2023: Jordan Addison (he was selected two picks before the Bills picked that year) 2024: Brian Thomas, Jr. (he was selected 5 spots ahead of Buffalo's pick last year) So, maybe if Mel was GM, he would have traded up for one of those receivers (that is if he could find a partner, which is not a guarantee). But, if Mel didn't trade up, and picked the next best available pick on his board (slightly leaning to the position he was selecting for the Bills), his picks would have looked like this: 2022: Kaiir Elam 2023: Dalton Kincaid 2024: Xavier Worthy So, the only difference would be Worthy over Coleman*. Again, you could knock Beane for not trying to trade up for one of those receivers, but then again, maybe he did try and there were no takers or the price was too high...we don't know. [*And due to the trade, it is not actually just Worthy for Coleman, it is Worthy/Jaden Hicks(DB)/C.J. Hanson (OG) for Coleman/DeWayne Carter/Travis Clayton (OT).]

I'm not going to say that either Palmer or Moore will be superstars (we probably spread the ball around too much and run too much for any WR to be a "superstar" this year), but Sherfield and Harty are a pretty poor comparison for Palmer/Moore, imo. I personally didn't expect anything from Sherfield, I did have hope for Harty, but as a speedy slot guy who would help the offense, not as any kind of superstar. Plus, there is a bit of a difference in their production prior to coming to the Bills. Before coming to Buffalo: Deonte Harty had played 4 years, had 916 total yards, 4 total TDs, was averaging 20% snap count (and was originally an undrafted free agent) Trent Sherfield had played 5 years, with 844 total yards, 4 total TDs, was averaging 32% snap count (and was originally an undrafted free agent) where as: Elijah Moore has played for 4 years, has 2,233 total yards, 10 total TDs, has averaged 71% snap count (was drafted in the second round, 34th overall) Josh Palmer has played 4 years, has 2,303 total yards, 10 total TDs, has averaged 65% snap count (was drafted in the third round, 77th overall) I think it is pretty fair for fans to expect more out of Palmer and Moore than we got or even hoped to get from Harty and Sherfield. As to the OP's original question, what do we mean by superstar? Elite/top 5 at their position? Or just really good player who has a lot of production and really helps the team (but maybe not quite as high as top 3-5 at their position)? If you define Shakir as a slot receiver (not just as a receiver against the entire field), then I would say that Cook and Shakir are at least close to superstars (elite/top 5 at their spots), if not already there yet. Guys with the potential to be a star for the team [not necessarily elite/top 5 at their position, but really good (a lot of production, etc.)---and not saying they will all reach that potential of course]: Bosa, Oliver, Coleman, Bernard, Milano, Groot, Benford, Hairston, Kincaid, Palmer/Moore (again, not sure if the WRs will get enough targets to be considered a star, but I do feel they each have the potential for a very good season...but with Coleman, Shakir, and Samuel, plus the backs, there just may not be enough balls to go around to warrant the label---my guess would be Coleman, Palmer, Moore, as far as the order of who has the best chance to reach star-status...but it's kind of a toss up). [I didn't include the O-line, but both of our tackles are pretty high-level/stars at their positions. And I didn't include rookies Sanders, Walker, or Jackson because they will be rookies in a very heavy rotation, so not sure if they'll get enough opportunities to be considered star players...but who knows, maybe one of DTs overtakes DaQuan in snap counts and balls out.]

You guys are right that it isn't just Thurman. Lots of other great backs, like you mentioned, get overlooked/not talked about much too. I was a huge Earl Campbell fan as a kid. Didn't root for Marcus Allen as much because of the teams he played for, but loved watching him play. Dickerson definitely doesn't get talked about enough anymore. Billy Simms is a guy that I even forget about, but he was a stud (again, shortish career). And what could have been if Bo didn't get injured. The guy only played 38 games over four seasons and is still every bit the legend for those who watched him play (pure specimen). So, many great backs over the years, without even mentioning the normal guys brought up in GOAT conversations (Brown, Simpson, Sanders, Payton, Smith, etc.), or even the players from older generations. I guess to a certain extent, all glory eventually fades. And good point by skibum about Faulk, LT, and James coming right on the heels of Thurman, which probably took away a bit of his shine because they were great all-purpose backs too. So, maybe Thurm's skills didn't look quite as unique as they did earlier in his career (not that Thurm was the first either in that regard, with guys like Marcus Allen and even Roger Craig before him). And obviously the Super Bowl performances (lack of a SB win) weighs in too. Guess I was just a bit hyped watching old Thurman highlights and thinking about that great stretch that he had (averaging 1,919 scrimmage yards per season over a 5-year period). [And obviously the fact that he played for the Bills probably adds a little "thumb on the scale" increase/bias for me.]

Yes, obviously Thurman is in the Hall of Fame and on the Wall of Fame in Buffalo, but his star has seemed to fade in comparison to his contemporaries (Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith). He almost never gets mentioned when speaking of great running backs and seems overshadowed by the other two backs of his era. Even on say Youtube, it is much harder to find good highlights/highlight videos of Thurm compared to the other guys. Now first let me get this out of the way. Barry was special...probably the best pure RB I ever watched (didn't get to see Jim Brown, and really only saw the tail-end of O.J.'s career, etc.). But, I have often said that Barry is the GOAT (or at least near the top of that conversation). So, I'm not trying to say that Thurman was better overall than Barry Sanders. Thurman obviously did not have Barry's breakaway speed, etc. I may be saying it about Emmitt Smith though. I always felt that that era was Barry, then, Thurman, then Smith. Always felt that Smith was a bit of a product of volume and having one of the greatest O-lines of all-time (and a TON of short goal-line carries). Always felt Thurman was the better of those two at least. But not sure if that is just my Bills' bias. So, the negatives on Thurm, or why the other guys may be seen as higher: two big things I can see are touchdowns and longevity. Emmitt had 134 career TDs, Barry had 109 career TDs, and Thurman only had 84 career TDs---but generally, the Bills had way more weapons to spread the ball around too than the other two teams (save Dallas' SB years) and as I said, Emmitt got a lot of goal line carries (where in Buffalo, Kenny Davis stole a lot of goal-line touches from Thurm). Thurman's peak was about 8-9 years, Barry's peak was 10 years, and Emmitt's peak was about 12 years. And then, of course, Emmitt has three rings, while Thomas' team had the four failed SB attempts. Also, Thurman hit a wall in his career (as did that whole Bills team), to where his last 3-4 years in the league, he was not very productive, while Barry retired on top, and Emmitt's trail off was not as significant. But, if Thurm retired after 10 years like Barry did, he wouldn't have had that trail-off, 3 weak seasons to end his career. [I don't know, maybe I just answered my own question.] But, to counter, from 1989 to 2000, each of the three RBs had 4 seasons each of being on top of the others in yards from scrimmage. Pretty evenly split in that category. From 1989-1993* (for 5 seasons), here are their yards from scrimmage: (*Emmitt came into the league in 1990, so for him I did 1990 to 1994, to even the comparison) Thurman Thomas 9,595 yards and 55 TDs (4.48 yards/att) Emmitt Smith 8,759 yards and 65 TDs (4.42 yards/att) Barry Sanders 8, 288 yards and 60 TDs (4.76 yards/att) So, for 5 years, you could argue that Thurman outperformed both of the others, or at worst was on par with the other two (5 years is half of Barry's career). Thurman easily would have been the SB MVP of SBXXV if Norwood's kick went through. He has a league MVP in 1991 (Barry and Emmitt also have 1 league MVP each). And Thurman was kind of the progenitor of the Marshall Faulk, Tomlinson-type of backs to come, and he led the NFL in yards from scrimmage for four consecutive years (that's a pretty big feat---and all four of those years, Barry was in the league, and Emmitt was around for 3 of those 4 years---so he did that with those guys being in the league). Obviously Emmitt will be remembered because of the Super Bowls and the career rushing title, and Barry is remembered because he was magical---not knocking either guy, they both deserve their due. But I feel that Thurman should be seen as at least an equal to those guys (not better, but just as lauded for his own skillset and stats)...yet outside of Bills fans, most seem to forget him or not even really know about him (for younger fans). I don't know, what do you think? If you agree, why do you think Thurm gets forgotten? Should Thurman receive more laurels and be seen on par with those other two backs? I know he never won a SB (like Smith), but he at least made 4 Super Bowls, while Barry had a hard time even making the playoffs on Detroit, with only one playoff victory in his career (no fault of Barry's of course, that's on the Lions---but should Thurman be knocked for not winning Super Bowls then---I mean two of Emmitt's rings were against Thurman's team. IF, BIG IF, those games had gone the other way, would we see things differently? Is that all it is that changes how someone's career is viewed---one or two games in a team sport?). And as I said, Emmitt and Barry's peaks were both a bit longer than Thurman's peak, but even with that, Thurman is still #12 overall in NFL history in yards from scrimmage (Barry is #7, Emmitt is #2). Only 11 players in the history of the NFL have more yards than Thomas, yet he is so rarely talked about. [Just an offseason thought/discussion after recently watching a highlight video of Thurman and remembering just how good he actually was. But, I realize this is old news/an old debate.] [(aside) in looking up yards from scrimmage, I saw that Frank Gore retired with 19,985 yards. Couldn't the Jets have found 15 more yards for him his last season so he could hit that 20,000-yard mark? Would have been just the fourth player in history to do so.]

Yeah, not sure why I was assuming the original post was regular season only (which is what my list was). But even adding the playoffs (for just Josh and Aaron), I still get Rodgers just barely ahead in TDs/Touch for some reason (they both have performed well in the playoffs over the years). But as I said before, it doesn't really matter either way, it's so close, and because Josh will be clearly in front at some point this season, if he isn't already. And I'm not trying to take anything away from Josh. Obviously, in just 7 seasons, one of the best ever already. Rodgers 16.7274 Allen 16.8203

I'm not sure how the original Twitter/X poster came up with his stats. I went to check on turnovers (per rajinka's post) and decided to look at TDs as well, but in a slightly different format. I did a TD per how many touches. After doing that (including passing/rushing attempts and receiving targets---all touches), I came out with Aaron Rodgers still being slightly ahead of Josh---if my numbers are correct (no doubt though that Josh will probably take the lead early this upcoming season). Bradshaw and Young also got a slight bump up on my TD list for whatever reason. Doc Brown mentioned Drew Brees, and Figster mentioned Kurt Warner, so I looked up those guys too, as well as Tom Brady. Brees came in at 18.5, Brady at 18.8, and Warner at 20.1 on my TD/Touch list. Just FYI. Anyhow, here is what I came up with for Turnovers and TDs per touch for the 8 players in the original post. Player Turnovers Per Touch Player Touchdowns Per Touch Terry Bradshaw* (TO every) 14.8 (touches) Aaron Rodgers (TD every) 16.71 (touches) Steve Young* 27.8 Josh Allen 16.75 Tony Romo 31.8 Peyton Manning 17.6 Peyton Manning 36.6 Steve Young 17.7 Josh Allen 39.9 Terry Bradshaw 17.8 Lamar Jackson 48.0 Patrick Mahomes 17.8 Patrick Mahomes 53.0 Tony Romo 18.1 Aaron Rodgers 57.3 Lamar Jackson 18.1 It really shows you how good Aaron Rodgers has been to be top of the TD list and bottom of the turnover list (surprising that has equated to only one Super Bowl appearance in 20 seasons). And on that note, it's interesting that 5 of those 8 QBs have a combined 2 SB appearances (as starting QBs), while the other 3 QBs have appeared in 13 combined Super Bowls...kind of shows that it is still a team game and how hard it is to actually reach a Super Bowl. [*For Bradshaw and Young (only), I could not find separate fumbles vs. fumbles lost lists. Not sure when the NFL started differentiating between a fumble and a lost fumble. So, their turnover/touch numbers may be better than they appear above (I assume back in the day a fumble was a fumble no matter who recovered it). However, if I include all of Josh's fumbles and not just lost fumbles (and he had a lot of fumbles that the Bills recovered), his number is still better than both of those older players. So the two players in question probably have slightly better numbers than are shown, but it wouldn't really affect their ranking. For all other QBs, I used fumbles lost stats, not total fumbles...because a recovered fumble is not a turnover.]