folz

Yeah, I'm not quite sure why anyone is enamored with Hollywood Brown (or would want him as a FA). Sure, his first three years he looked like he might be a player on the rise, but the last three years have not gone well for him. Over the last three years -he has only played in 28 of a possible 51 games. -he has 1,374 yards and 7 TDs (3 year totals---good for an average of 49 yards and 0.25 TDs per game---when he was on the field) -6-year career total is 3,735 yards and 28 TDs [He's 27 years old] I'm not sure how much more I'd want Kirk, but being friends with Josh does make it more interesting (would they have great chemistry?). I have always liked him as a player, I just don't know if his presence would create some redundancy in the WR room. But maybe if they keep expanding on the "everyone eats" philosophy, they could make it work. Looking at Kirk's last three years in comparison to Brown, he has certainly fared a bit better than Hollywood. Kirk's last three years: -played 37 of a possible 51 games -he has 2,274 yards and 12 TDs (good for an average of 61.5 yards and 0.32 TDs per game) -7-year career total is 5,176 yards and 29 TDs [He's 28 years old---6 months older than Hollywood] That was three years ago (he was 25 years old). Maybe 3 years in Jacksonville has changed his mind. Do you want to be warm and have fun off the field? Or do you want to have fun on the field and contend for a championship? Yes, Kirk has had a good number of injuries over his career and it's definitely something to weigh into the conversation of course, but just to correct you, he has had 3 seasons of more than 13 games played (not just one). From 2020-2022, he only missed 2 games in 3 seasons. 2021 and 2022, he did not miss any games. He's played 93 of a total 116 games in his career---missing 23 games in 7 years (or on average 3.2 games per season). Nine of those 23 games missed were last year when he broke his collarbone. [Before the collarbone injury, he had missed 14 games in 6+ seasons---or about 2.15 games per season on average.] I broke my collarbone when I was younger. It is an extremely painful injury, but it is not too long of a recovery (like 6-8 weeks and then just building your strength back) and there are really no lingering issues with the injury (so he should be pretty close to 100% at this point, if not already there). But, he did end both of the last two season on IR, so I do get the concern. Kirk injuries, last 5 seasons: 2024: broken collarbone--9 games missed 2023: groin tear--5 games missed 2022: no injuries--no games missed 2021: no injuries--no games missed 2020: groin pull--missed 2 games

I'm very happy for Saquon (to have the season he did and to get the bag) after injuries and the Giants nearly derailed his career. And I love me some James Cook, but he and his agent should not be using Saquon as any kind of reference. 2024 Barkley: 2,283 total yards, 15 TDs, 388 touches, 74% snap count Cook: 1,267 total yards, 18 TDs, 245 touches, 48% snap count Saquon just had the 13th all-time best season in yards from scrimmage in the history of the NFL. Cook was 26th in yards from scrimmage just in relation to other 2024 players. If Cook ever gets close to Saquan's numbers and starts hurdling defenders backwards, then we can talk 15-20 million. Otherwise, Saquon should not be relevant in any negotiations with Cook. Completely different stratosphere (the same for McCaffrey, when healthy). If you remove Barkley and McCaffrey from the conversation, the next 10 highest paid RBs are: Player Salary yearly avg. Year contract was signed 1. Jonathan Taylor 14.0 million 2023 2. Alvin Kamara 12.25 million 2024 3. Josh Jacobs 12.0 million 2024 4. James Connor 9.5 million 2024 5. David Montgomery 9.125 million 2024 6. Rhamondre S. 9.0 milllion 2024 7. Joe Mixon 8.5 million 2024 8. Chubba Hubbard 8.3 million 2024 9. D'Andre Swift 8.0 million 2024 10. Derrick Henry 8.0 million 2024 Obviously, no one on that list had as many TDs as Cook did this year, but 8 of those 10 players did have more scrimmage yards than James did this year. Now, in 2023, James was 3rd in yards from scrimmage for a RB (besting everyone on that list in 2023), but in 2023, he also only had 6 total TDs (as opposed to the monster number this year). And with Taylor, despite the injuries, he has still had two season better than James' best season. So, I'm not sure how much James Cook should make, and I'd love to see him remain a Bill (if they can mutually agree on a number), but I definitely think he is over-valuing himself a bit at this point and I don't want to sacrifice other areas of the team. James is very good, but would the drop off to Davis, Johnson and say a rookie with similar skills to James (even if not quite as good) be as detrimental to the team overall as would over-spending big money on Cook and possibly sacrificing elsewhere? 🤷‍♂️ Either way, the Barkley contract should not make a difference in Cook's negotiations (though I'm sure it will---every RB's agent will be using that number to up their client's contracts). But by how much? All of the guys on the list above just signed last year (except for Taylor). How much does the increased value of RBs and the Barkley contract raise the rate? Last year it was basically 8-12 million for similar players to Cook. Are we really jumping to 15+ in just one year?

Just throwing some stats into the conversation: In the first 11 games of 2024, Dorian averaged 78% of the defensive snaps at LBer. In the last 6 games of the regular season and the three playoff games (after Matt's return), Dorian averaged 17% of the snap count on defense at LBer. On the year (overall) he averaged 59% of the defensive snaps at LBer. So, the tackle total is even a bit more impressive considering he hardly played the last 6 games of the year (averaged only 11% of defensive snaps over that stretch). In the first 10 games of the year (as a starter), he averaged 9.3 tackles per game (pro-rated to 17 games that would be 158 tackles---which would be good for a third place tie in the league in 2024, for reference). Also in those 10 games, he had 5 TFLs, 1 Forced Fumble, 2 Fumble Recoveries, 6 QB pressures, 1 QB hit, 2 QB knockdowns (no sacks, ints, or pds). As to defending the pass, let's compare his stats to Terrel's and Matt's to get a better idea: 2024 Recs allowed Targets Comp. % Yds allowed yds/rec yds/tar YAC allowed % of Yac yds PD INTs TDs allowed Rating* Dorian 43 59 72.9 390 9.1 6.6 246 63 0 0 3 107.3 Terrel 38 59 64.4 379 10.0 6.4 227 59.9 3 2 2 79.7 Matt 5 8 62.5 60 12.0 7.5 --- --- 0 0 0 85.4 *Lower rating is better Hard to compare Matt with such a small sample size. The only real difference between Terrel and Dorian, statistically in 2024, were Terrel's 3 PDs, 2 INTs, and 1 less TD allowed. But, that is 6 big plays across the year that could help decide outcomes of games. Now, if we compare a few key stats between Dorian's 2024 and Matt's and TB's season averages (over their starting careers), it does appear that Dorian still has some work to do in that department. Season averages (over their career) Comp. % yds/tar PD INTs TDs allowed Rating Terrel 68.3 6.4 5 2.5 2 79.9 Matt 61.8 5.1 5 1.25 1.14 71.0 2024 Dorian 72.9 6.6 0 0 3 107.3 That's about 8-9 plays across a season that Matt and TB will make in the passing game that Dorian did not in 2024 (granted, he also only started 11 of the 17 games and he's still young---not that Terrel isn't too). So, I guess the question is, does Dorian have the ability to make those splash plays in the passing game (with more time/experience)? Or, if not and if you were to move on at some point from Matt or Terrel, can you live with that slight downgrade in the passing game (as he seems to be pretty solid in the rest of his game). Either way, I'm very comfortable with him as our backup for now and he is at least a very capable starter when called upon. And I guess we'll see if he can keep the arrow pointing higher than that.

Regular Season Total Yds TDs Targets Recs Yards/Rec Yards/Targ Yards/Game Long Most yards/game 1st downs 1st down % Xavier Worthy 638 6 98 59 10.8 6.5 37.5 54 79 36 61.0 Keon Coleman 556 4 57 29 19.2 9.8 42.8 64 100 22 75.9 Worthy and Coleman were 7th and 8th in rookie receiving yards. And remember, Keon played 3 games fewer than Xavier (and then was working himself back from the injury) and he also had 31 fewer targets. As far as stretching the field, both Worthy and Keon had 3 receptions over 30 yards on the year. Worthy: 31, 35, and 54 yards. Coleman: 49, 57, and 64 yards. Keon had 12 receptions of 20+ yards. Xavier had 4 receptions of 20+ yards. [Again, with Keon playing three fewer games too.] Looking at those numbers and his yards/rec and yards/target, I'm not sure how well Worthy was actually stretching the field vertically (unless maybe as a decoy). Keon's yards/rec and yards/target ranked 4th and 23rd in the league respectively (of all receivers). Worthy's yards/rec and yards/target ranked 109th and 174th in the league this year. Yes, Worthy had the three big receptions at the end of the Super Bowl (after Philly was already up 34-0), but he really didn't do that much in the playoffs up to that point. Look, we all wished we saw more from Keon and hoped that he'd develop down the stretch better than he did. And I think it is fair enough to say that he didn't have a big impact. But I'm not sure how people can say in the same breath that Worthy did have a BIG rookie season/did have a big impact? imo, the numbers just do not agree with the perception that there is some vast gulf between how their rookie years went (with Worthy some rising star and Keon a cross your fingers he's not a bust guy). I don't think anything definitive can be said about either guy or how they compare as of yet. It will take another season or two. btw, I voted hell no on trading Cook to K.C. too.

The article posted today is a tiny fluff piece with no data to back it up. Just one guy saying the Bills need a new coach (...nothing to see here). But, I missed this thread when it came around the first time. Looking at the poll, it is pretty interesting. It looks like most of the votes were made between 1/27 and 1/29, just after the loss in the Championship game. Exactly 300 Bills fans responded to the poll and if I condense all of the poll options into just two categories---those that think McD should stay and those who think its time for a change---it seems that the Mafia is split right down the middle, with 50.67% of voters thinking McD should stay and 49.33% thinking its time for a change. If this poll is a true representation of the larger Bills fandom (and opinions haven't changed with a little distance from the loss), then we are truly a divided nation.

Top 10 Legit Reasons for the Bills not yet reaching a Super Bowl: 1. The Kansas City Chiefs 2. The Kansas City Chiefs 3. The Kansas City Chiefs 4. The Kansas City Chiefs 5. Luck (just one play this way or that in any of the last three KC matches) 6. Injuries and unforeseen circumstances (injuries, snow storms, Damar Hamlin incident, etc.) 7. NFL Officiating 8. Lack of talent at a key position (most often CB vs. KC) 9. Execution (penalties and lack of the big play in crunch time, particularly on the defense) 10. Coaching Yeah, Josh ain't the problem (the whole world knows that). But I don't think, overall (excluding the 13 seconds game), it's really coaching either. With football, the blame either seems to go to the QB or the coach (or both). But answers aren't always as simple or black-and-white as replace the QB or fire the coach, imo. You make it sound as if junior assistant/little brother McDermott falls apart against his daddy/big brother Reid. And yet, at the end of regulation in the last three playoff matchups against K.C., the Chiefs had a combined 6-point lead. Only six points across three games at the end of regulation. You do realize how close that is, correct? We are talking one play in each game that could have swung things the other way. In two of the games, it came down to a field goal attempt. If Butker missed his and Bass made his, we'd be 2-2 vs. KC in the playoffs. It's not like we're getting totally out-classed and out-coached every time. And let's face it, the referees heavily influenced the other two games (both AFC Championship games).

My top 5 favorite vs. their ranking of the same plays. #1 is the same. My rank: Their rank: #1 Amari pitch back to Josh for the TD in the snow vs. San Fran #1 #2 Ty Johnson sliding catch on the end line vs. Denver (Wild Card) #3 #3 Josh's long, pin-balling TD vs. K.C. #2 #4 Josh's crazy sideline throw to Shakir vs. Baltimore Tied #6 #5 Shakir splitting the defenders twice for the TD vs. Rams #8

Yeah, this is pretty interesting. I hadn't paid too much attention to what the Rams have done. But looking at it, it is an unusual situation. In 7 of the last 8 years, the Rams did not have a first round pick in the draft. And in two of those years, they also had no second round pick. So, they were missing 9 of their top 16 picks over the last 8 years. Over that span, they have made two Super Bowls, winning one. They have made the playoffs in 6 of 8 years. The two off-years both came after their Super Bowl appearances (2019, 9-7; 2022, 5-12). So, only one losing season, two years without playoffs. Obviously they are doing something right over there. First off, they have a very good coach. But is their draft strategy (using first rounders for trades rather than rookies) innovative and the reason for their success, or have they been successful despite that strategy? Here is where their top picks were spent: 2016 and 2017 1st rounders, two second rounders, and two third rounders to draft Jared Goff. 2018 first rounder traded for Brandin Cooks 2019 first rounder was used to trade back and acquire more picks 2020 and 2021 first rounders traded for Jalen Ramsey 2022 and 2023 first rounders, Jared Goff, plus a third given up to get Stafford in a trade. So, 7 first rounders, 2 second rounders, 3 third rounders, and a 4th rounder for: Jaren Goff, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey, and Matthew Stafford. I mean, Stafford and Ramsey helped them win a Super Bowl, but that's 12 premium picks spent on 4 players (two who are no longer on the team, and one who has just been granted the ability to seek a trade). You can't knock the success they've had, but I'm not sure it's due to how they allocated their first rounders (unless you say they don't have a Super Bowl without Stafford). Over the last 8 years, they have had a lot of draft picks overall (despite trading away a lot of their premium picks). The Rams have averaged 9.6 draft picks in each of the last 8 drafts. That's a lot of picks in rounds 3-7. Since 2018, the Rams players to make the Pro Bowl have been: Aaron Donald (6X), Jared Goff (1X), Jalen Ramsey (1X), Cooper Kupp (1X), Todd Gurley (1X), and their rookie 2024 1st round pick Jared Verse (picked 19th overall---their first 1st round pick in 9 years, since drafting Jared Goff in 2016). [Just as a base for say stud players on the team---obviously, Ramsey was not drafted by the team.] 16 of the Rams 25 starters came through the draft. They did find some later-round guys (Puka and Kyren Williams in the 5th, for example). But half of those picks (8 of 16 starters) were selected in the first three rounds (7 of them coming in rounds 2 and 3). So, it's not like they are killing it late in the draft or anything. They are finding like 1 starter per year in the later rounds (4-7). They have also had their share of misses. Their first three picks in 2020 and 2021 were Cam Akers, Van Jefferson, and Tutu Atwell (albeit without a first round pick in either year). So, I don't know, it's hard to tell what has actually worked for the Rams. Did the big trades do it? Renting players (like Von in the Super Bowl year)? Their volume in the draft (because their drafting hasn't been stellar overall, outside of a few big hits---but they have filled out their roster with it---64% of their starters came from the draft). Rookie first-rounder Jared Verse and 3rd rounder Cooper Kupp are their only draft picks still on the team that have made a Pro Bowl. Obviously Puka is a stud too...and Ramsey has made the Pro Bowl (but he wasn't a draft pick). But, it's not like they are overloaded with talent overall (a handful of very good players and a lot of solid players). Is it coaching? I mean, looking at their moves and drafts in a vacuum, I wouldn't have guessed that they would make two Super Bowls from it...but they did. Maybe it's just magic...or a softer conference, good coaching, and a little bit of luck along the way. Anyone have any thoughts on the Rams' success?

Josh literally did an interview about a month ago (I'm not going to search for it) where he said the main goals for his career are to bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo and to retire as a Buffalo Bill. Obviously, people can change their mind...but I think leaving the team is the furthest thought from his mind right now. And I highly doubt that Josh sees their playoff failures the same way that some fans do (i.e. it's all due to our crappy head coach and his horrible defense---a defense that has actually been statistically the best defense in the NFL over the last 5-6 years---I know, I know...playoffs). But, I bet Josh blames himself (and maybe the refs, though that isn't really Josh-like either) as much as he does the coaches or other players. Gonna be a long offseason.

Easy answer: O.J. What he did was historic and has yet to be matched to this day. The entire country was watching him gun for 2,000 yards. He was the first to do it...and in 14 games. His yards per game season average in '73 may never be topped. We've talked about how Saquon and King Henry were having historic years this season (and they were both phenomenal, no doubt)...but, on the yards/game for a season all-time list, their seasons rank 14th and 27th respectively. O.J. is obviously #1, by a good margin. No one has matched what he did that year. 1 O.J. Simpson+ (26) 143.1 1973 BUF 2 Jim Brown+ (27) 133.1 1963 CLE 3 Walter Payton+ (24) 132.3 1977 CHI 4 Eric Dickerson+ (24) 131.6 1984 RAM 5 Adrian Peterson (27) 131.1 2012 MIN 6 O.J. Simpson+ (28) 129.8 1975 BUF 7 Jamal Lewis (24) 129.1 2003 BAL 8 Earl Campbell+ (25) 128.9 1980 HOU 9 Barry Sanders+ (29) 128.3 1997 DET 10 Jim Brown+ (22) 127.3 1958 CLE 11 Derrick Henry (26) 126.7 2020 TEN 12 Terrell Davis+ (25) 125.5 1998 DEN 13 Chris Johnson (23) 125.4 2009 TEN 14 Saquon Barkley (27) 125.3 2024 PHI 15 Clinton Portis (22) 122.4 2003 DEN 16 Ahman Green (26) 117.7 2003 GNB Barry Sanders+ (26) 117.7 1994 DET 18 Shaun Alexander (28) 117.5 2005 SEA 19 Terrell Davis+ (24) 116.7 1997 DEN 20 Tiki Barber (30) 116.3 2005 NYG 21 Ricky Williams (25) 115.8 2002 MIA 22 Jamal Anderson (25) 115.4 1998 ATL Priest Holmes (28) 115.4 2002 KAN 24 DeMarco Murray (26) 115.3 2014 DAL 25 Eric Dickerson+ (26) 113.8 1986 RAM 26 L. Tomlinson+ (27) 113.4 2006 SDG 27 Eric Dickerson+ (23) 113.0 1983 RAM Derrick Henry (30) 113.0 2024 BAL 29 Eric Dickerson+ (27) 112.3 1987 IND 30 Larry Johnson (26) 111.8 2006 KAN And as much as I love Josh, and I'm so glad he finally got his very well-deserved MVP, I might actually put Thurman 2nd on the list. Led the league in yards from scrimmage and kind of established the all-purpose back who could line up anywhere in a fast-paced offense (leading the way for the Marshall Faulks and LaDanian Tomlinsons of the world, etc.). Was MVP, 1st-team All Pro, Pro Bowl 1st team, NFL Offensive Player of the Year, and led his team to 13 wins and their 2nd Super Bowl (despite the SB outcome). I think people sometimes forget that Thurm led the league in yards from scrimmage 4 consecutive years. No one else has ever done that. No one else has done it even 3 times in a row. And only 6 other guys have done it two years in a row. The only players to lead the league in yards from scrimmage more than twice in their entire careers are: Jim Brown (3X), O.J. (3X), Eric Dickerson (4X), and Thurman Thomas (4X). What Josh has done and did this year is amazing, it is just a bit less historic, imo, than the other two---simply because there are a couple of other guys doing similar things (Jackson/Mahomes/burrow) at the same time. For instance, where Josh has been very historic is in his total touchdown production, yet this season 3 guys had more TDs than him. Doesn't take anything away from what Josh is doing, just makes his MVP season feel a bit less historic. He's not the only one in the league at the time of their MVP doing something that no one else is really doing. Of course, no other QBs are trucking defenders like Josh (he is a unicorn), but you know what I mean.

I'm not saying Xavier Worthy isn't a good player...but his playoff stats are a bit misleading if you just list the totals, imo. In the first playoff game, he had 48 yards and 0 TDs. In the second playoff game, if you take away the catch that wasn't a catch (his longest of the day), he would have had 59 yards and 1 TD. In the Super Bowl, up until 2:33 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Worthy had 2 receptions for 9 yards. The score was 34-0 Philadelphia at that point. He then had 148 yards and two TDs in garbage time. So, prior to the garbage time stats, in almost 11 of 12 quarters of playoff football, he was averaging 42 yards and 0.36 TDs per playoff game. He still deserves his props. I mean, he nabbed two 50-yard receptions and two TDs in a Super Bowl, not many people can say that, even if it was well after the game had already been decided. But, would he have still been able to do that if it had been a close game? Had Philly let up a bit at that point? Prior to the Super Bowl, the most yards Xavier had in a game this year was 79. Only 6 of 19 games did he have more than 47 yards. And as far as taking the top off: Prior to the end of the SB, he only had three receptions for more than 30 yards in 19 games (good for 31, 35, and 54). Keon also had three receptions over 30 yards this year in 16 games (good for 49, 57, and 64). Keon had 12 receptions of 20+ yards this year, Worthy had 4 receptions of 20+ yards this season (and Keon played 3 fewer games and had 41 fewer targets than Xavier). On the year, Worthy's yards per reception was 10.8 (ranked 109th in the league---Keon was 4th in the league at 19.2, btw). On the year, Worthy's yards per target was 6.5 (ranked 174th in the league---Keon was 9.8, good for a 23rd ranking in the league). For a guy who was drafted to take the top off, he didn't seem to fare as well as even Keon "slow as molasses" Coleman as far as long balls. I just think we need to have a little perspective on Worthy's playoff numbers. Maybe the Super Bowl was his coming out party and he'll kill it next year. Or maybe his SB numbers were heavily inflated by the blow-out nature of the game. The Worthy/Coleman question probably can't be answered until we see another 1-2 seasons.

I wondered about TDs also. Now, the Bills are a bit unique because of Josh getting so many red zone carries and the "Everybody Eats" philosophy this year. But, for the 2024 Buffalo Bills, 17 of their 65 total touchdowns went to WRs (or 26%). League wide though, wide receivers scored 562 of the total 1,387 touchdowns scored in the NFL in 2024 (or, WRs on average, scored 40.5% of all TDs in the NFL this season).

I'm circling back around to my own query: Only three teams have made the playoffs in each of the last five seasons (KC, Buffalo, and Tampa). So, I thought that I would take a look at the top of their last four drafts to see if they fared any better (picking late in each round like Buffalo). [Yes, I understand it's still hard to judge the 2024 draft for any of the teams.] Buffalo (2021-2024 drafts, rounds 1-3) 12 picks overall (3 firsts, 5 seconds, and 4 thirds). Average draft pick: 59 Players: Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, Spencer Brown, Kaiir Elam, James Cook, Terrell Bernard, Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Dorian Williams, Keon Coleman, Cole Bishop, DeWayne Carter. Summary: 6-7 starters, 3-4 backups, 2 Busts Tampa (2021-2024 drafts, rounds 1-3) 13 picks overall (3 firsts, 5 seconds, and 5 thirds). Average draft pick: 60 Players: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Kyle Trask, Robert Hainsey, Logan Hall, Luke Goedeke, Rachaad White, Calijah Kasey, Cody Mauch, YaYa Diaby, Graham Barton, Chris Braswell, Tykee Smith, Jalen McMillan Summary: 7-8 starters, 4-5 backups, 1 Bust (at this point) Kansas City (2021-2024 drafts, rounds 1-3) 11 picks overall (4 firsts, 6 seconds, and 1 third). Average draft pick: 51 Players: Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey, Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis, Skyy Moore, Bryan Cook, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Rashee Rice, Wanya Morris, Xavier Worthy, Kingsley Suamataia Summary: 7 starters, 3 backups, 1 Bust I'd say overall, all three teams did about the same as far as filling roles on their team. As far as impact players, K.C. probably has the edge. But, they also had one more first round pick and one more second round pick than the Bills or Bucs over that span, and KC's average pick was 8-9 spots ahead of Buffalo and Tampa. So, I don't know, what do you guys think?

The only easy answer there is Elam. He has been a disappointment, obviously. "Bust" And Epenesa and Coleman were both second round picks, not first round picks. But, as for them. A.J. is a really solid player (but yeah, I think we all hoped for more overall and definitely a quicker development). I still think Keon is going to be a very good player. People writing him off due to his injury is premature in my opinion. In the two games before the injury he had just had his first 100-yard game and followed it up with 70 yards and a TD. He was coming on and then got injured and was not quite himself/didn't really get fit back into the offense when he came back. I also still think that Kincaid will be a very good player for us for a number of years, despite him not yet having the impact that some of us had hoped for (but will he ever be elite/top-5 TE in the league...yeah, I'm not as confident in that anymore, but it's still possible). Oliver and Rousseau are kind of in a similar boat. Both very, very good players and at times flash elite play, but have not been able to sustain the elite play consistently. And of course, Ed was a high pick (#9 overall), so yeah, very good player, but not as impactful as you'd hope from a #9 pick. So, as I said in my last post...I agree that we need more high-impact players early in the draft (as opposed to solid to very good players), but I also realize that it's harder to find those guys at picks 25-30 than it is from say 5-15. It would be interesting to see a selection of teams who have drafted in a similar range to ours to see if they had any better luck consistently with high-impact players in that range.

So, our friend Tyler Dunne is at it again. Once again, talking to someone fired by Beane and McDermott to get an "unbiased" view of the front office/coaching staff. Monos never even worked with Brandon Beane, so how does he know anything about what is going on in the building (as far as who is making picks, how they make their picks, how qualified Beane is, etc.). He's never been a GM himself, but finds it easy to say it is lazy GMing to go after Garrett or having gone for Von? This isn't insider stuff, it's just two guys and their slightly biased opinions. Now is he correct on a couple of things? Sure, I don't think we should pay Cook 15 million either and the early picks of the Beane era (outside of Josh) have not been elite, difference makers (i.e., we need better early drafting). But again, that is obvious to everyone and has been discussed here often. This is no revelation or insider knowledge. So, Beane isn't a trusted talent evaluator, but Monos is? Let's look at the top draft picks of the Monos/Whaley years to see how much weight we should give to Monos' opinion. While he was director of player personnel (prior to McDermott's arrival): Round 1 (pick #) Round 2 (pick #) Round 3 (pick #) 2013: E. J. Manuel (16) Robert Woods (41) Marquise Goodwin (78) Kiko Alonzo (46) 2014: Sammy Watkins (4) Cyrus Kuandjio (44) Preston Brown (73) 2015: No 1st due to Sammy Ronald Darby (50) John Miller (81) 2016: Shaq Lawson (19) Reggie Ragland (41) Adolphus Washington (80) So, Robert Woods and............Shaq was a decent player, but never the pass rusher we needed; Kiko had a great rookie season but only ended up starting 4 years in the league total. And the average draft pick # of the first three rounds in those years was 47.75. The average draft position for Beane in the first three rounds has been 57.01. Now, granted, it's 7 drafts instead of 4 (so more picks), but the players that Beane has drafted in the first three rounds (that weren't busts): Josh Allen, James Cook, Spencer Brown, Terrell Bernard, Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, O'Cyrus Torrence, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, A.J. Epenesa, Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Devin Singletary, Dorian Williams, Keon Coleman, Dewayne Carter. I agree that we need more elite/impact players early in the draft, but that is like 10-11 guys who are starting in the league, and another 6-7 guys that play significant time. A lot better than what Monos' group has to show (while picking on average 10 places higher). Really, the only "busts" in the first three rounds, or guys that didn't become solid contributors would be Boogie, Kaiir, Cody Ford, and Zack Moss. And yet, they are all still in the league, and two of them at least are still getting playing time. Look, we can all agree that we need more high-impact players at the top of the draft, but you do also have to take into account where we are drafting. After the Super Bowl, people have been praising Philadelphia for drafting the players (some studs) that helped get them there (and fair enough). But, even though Philly also won the Bowl a couple of years ago, they also had some down seasons over the last 5 years. Over the last 5 years, Philadelphia's average draft pick # for the first and second rounds is 28.6. Over the last 5 years, Buffalo's average draft pick # for the first and second rounds is 45.33. The highest pick the Bills have had in the last 5 years was pick #23. Philadelphia has had 5 picks over the last 5 years higher than #23. They had two top-10 picks and three picks in the top-13 over that span. Everything in perspective.

You do realize that McDermott is going into his ninth year as a head coach right? And that the league changes, right? In 2020, no one could stop the Chiefs and Bills offenses, so shell defenses and cover zero became popular. Nickel defense had already been being used more and that continued. Running backs were an after-thought. So, the last couple of years, the running game has returned in a big way (because of the light boxes). Backs having career years, jumbo packages, 6-offensive linemen, tush pushes, bigger, stronger WRs to help in the run game, quick passing games to eliminate the pass rush and attack the soft zones, etc., etc. And so defenses need to shift once again. It's a never-ending back-and-forth game. Maybe Sean is just showing his growth mindset and tweaking and changing with the league (trying to stay ahead of the curve) as a good coach should (rather than being stuck in the past), as opposed to your notion that he's just hired "puppets" to "deflect and save his scheme." I mean, wow, you really do have a low impression of Sean as a man, don't you? Also, did you see my above post, where I noted that over the last six years the Bills have the fewest points scored against them and the most takeaways of any team? I mean, he must be doing something right despite all of the puppets, the terrible scheme, and all of the coaching blunders.

Since Fangio was only a HC for three years, I wasn't comparing their head coaching stints, I was comparing their defenses (when they were either a HC or a DC). The reason I started the stats at 2011 was because Fangio wasn't in the NFL from 2005-2011 (he was coaching in the college ranks). I was just trying to get the largest relative data set. Fangio's prior stint in the league (1995-2005), was prior to Sean's career. But, from 2011-2024, both Vic and Sean were either a HC or DC in the league. And that does not include Sean's time in Philly (2009, 2010) when he had a top 10 defense both years (it does include his time in Carolina). Not trying to cherry pick data. And I specifically mentioned the QBs Fangio had in Denver, of course he would have been better if he had a better QB. That's why I mentioned it. I wasn't trying to deride Fangio as a coach, more just pointing out that he is quite similar in fact to McDermott. And no shoe in to be better. The defense lost 13 players from last year and we didn't really have the assets to replace them properly. Now, sure, a lot of those guys were average or old players, but that is a lot of experience in that defense and veteran leadership that walked out the door. And yet the Bills defense was still 11th in points allowed and 2nd in takeaways this season. Not bad considering the circumstances. And, despite the down year, over the last 6 seasons, the Bills defense is still #1 in fewest points allowed and #1 in takeaways. Across a 6-year period under McDermott. I don't think that anyone is saying another coach couldn't get us to the playoffs, or win the division. We are just saying why take a step back to go forward. Over the last 5 seasons, the Bills have scored more points than any other team in the league and at the same time allowed the fewest points scored against them. They also have the second best record in the league over that span. I mean, honestly, how does anyone do better than that? And for the "any coach could make the playoffs/win a division" with Josh Allen (or an elite QB)...well, John Elway missed the playoffs 6 times in his career, Aaron Rodgers also had 6 seasons of watching the playoffs from home, Marino didn't reach the post-season 7 times in his career, and Drew Brees (with Sean Payton as his HC) missed the playoffs in 10 different seasons. Playoffs, let alone Super Bowls, are not guaranteed just because you have an elite QB. But, what it really comes down to is the playoffs. Some people blame McDermott for the playoff losses (he is the sole or main reason for our defeats), while others believe that luck, injuries, referees, life circumstances, talent, execution, etc. are as much or more to blame than the coaching. Was coaching really the main factor in the back-to-back 3-point playoff losses to K.C. these last two years? I guess this debate will rage on until McD either wins a Super Bowl or gets fired. Some think it is a guarantee that he can never win it. He's just not good enough or something (despite being a couple of bad ref calls away from the SB this year---with a team that was supposedly rebuilding/retooling and lacking talent). While others of us see how close we are and say, of course he can...if the ball just bounces our way once in any of those last three games against KC, or in a future game and we're right there. The fear of a new coach is all of the change and turnover and if that could ruin or set back/delay what we already have, which is so close. Plus, it's just hard to call for the head of a coach with the overall record, stats, rankings, and accomplishments that McD has. [I know, some do not consider Division Championships, playoffs 7 of 8 years, the second best record in the league over a 6-year span, the most points scored and fewest points allowed over 5-6 years, as accomplishments---but, to each his own.]

I understand that there are always guys out there that you could go for, but, there is no guarantee that a new guy can get it done either (even if they did somewhere else). I don't know that I'm in for change, just for the sake of change. For instance, we get enamored by coordinators who have recently done well. But, let's look at Vic Fangio for a moment---great coach, not taking anything away from him, but... Since 2009, Vic Fangio's defenses have averaged a ranking of 13.8 in points against and 13.6 in yards against. Since 2009, McDermott's defenses have averaged a ranking of 10.8 in points against and 12.4 in yards against. In the playoffs, since 2011, McDermott is 10-10, 3 Championship game appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance (loss) Prior to this season's playoffs, Fangio (since 2011) was 5-5, 3 Championship game appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance (loss). [Almost identical, up to this season, just with MCD having more overall games.] As a head coach, Fangio was 19-30 in 3 years with Denver, no playoffs (granted his QBs were Flacco, Bridgewater, and Lock). From 2015-2023, Fangio's teams (as HC or DC) were 0-2 in the playoffs with 7 years not making the playoffs. I know Philly just had a great playoff run and knocked off the Chiefs with a great defensive performance, but there is no evidence that Fangio would improve on what McDermott has done here in Buffalo overall. Maybe he would, but that's a lot of turnover to kind of get pretty much what we already have. I don't think Belichick was a realistic option for either side (the team or Bill). Nor frankly would I have wanted him as coach of the Bills. Not sure how Anarumo would be an improvement. Seven years as a DC in the league. Only one top-10 ranking in 7 years. The last two years, the Bengals finished 31st and 25th overall in defense. Just because Cinci beat KC in the playoffs once? And not that I would have endorsed it, but the only reason to cause so much turnover and change would have been if the team wanted to take a shot at a young, up-and-coming offensive coordinator like Johnson. But again, no guarantee. Plus there is the learning curve of being a first-time head coach, a new coaching staff, roster turnover, new offensive and defensive schemes and philosophies, etc....how long do we give the new guy to get it done before we're asking for another change and caught in that 3-year coaching turnover cycle? As close as we are, I think it's a big ask to think someone else can come in and just easily win a Super Bowl in their first two years. I understand that we'll never know if we don't try, and I know that our defense has not been great in the playoffs (for various reasons each year)...but I would like to at least point out that at the end of regulation in the last three playoff games against the Chiefs, K.C. had a combined 6 points more than the Bills. Six points across three games! We were like 3 plays, 3 bounces of the ball away from maybe 3 Super Bowl appearances. And that's not even taking into account the horrible refereeing in the two Championship games vs. K.C. It's frustrating as all hell, but I don't see a good enough reason to blow it all up in the hopes that someone else gets us that one more play/lucky bounce of the ball/referee call(s).

Back to boobs and Josh's fiancé, I thought Hailee looked amazing at the NFL Honors show.

Yet, blowouts (and wins) can be prevented by shaky calls. And allowed with no calls. Sometimes it is a very fine line between a close game and a blowout. The only penalty on the Eagles offense all night was the Brown OPI. No holding calls. No false starts (except on STs). No illegal formations. No hands to the face. None. I swear, every time we play the Chiefs in the post season, beyond just the bad spots in the last game, we have at least two drives killed by a holding call or whatever on the offensive line. Let's say last night on the Eagles first scoring drive, on say 2nd and 10, the refs call holding. Now, it's 2nd and 20, and much more likely a punt (rather than a score) and giving the other team good field position. That could be a 14-point swing in a game on just one call/no call. And turn the momentum. Let's say the refs made two holding calls (or whatever) on Philly's O-line in the first half that stopped one Philly TD drive and their FG drive. Most people won't necessarily question two holding calls in a half. And let's say KC scores with that good field position after those punts. We are talking about a 14-14, 14-10, or 14-7 game at the half instead of 24-0...and its still a game---not a blowout---with just two calls. Obviously though, last night, the game turned on the two Mahomes interceptions. In just 4 plays, the Eagles scored 14 points (late in the 2nd)...blowing the game open. So, you are also correct about trying to not allow the refs to be able to affect the game. I do agree with you that you have to take it out of the refs hands as much as possible. But let's not fool ourselves...K.C. didn't get the same treatment from the refs last night that they have seen so often over the last few years. Exactly what these guys said. Plus, most of the country got to see the villain slayed, which leaves a good taste in their mouths about the NFL, rather than the biased refs narrative playing out all off season. Fans like seeing the villain lose almost as much as they like seeing their guy win. Remember the two underdog-Giants Super Bowl wins vs. the Evil cheating Empire?

I'm totally on board with fixing the D-line. A stud pass rusher and some beef in the middle would go along way, imo. I think Carter is going to develop well. But it looks like Daquan may be at the end. Everyone else is good to very good or still an unknown, but very little to no consistent high-end play. I think we all knew that the defense would take a step back this year, especially when Milano got hurt again. The defense held their own pretty well this year, but let's not forget that it was without Poyer, Hyde, Tre, Milano, Floyd, Dodson, Siran Neal, Dane Jackson, Shaq Lawson, Tim Settle, Poona Ford, Linval Joseph, AJ Klein. Now I know it was time to move on from most of those guys (not bad decisions), but that is a lot of experience in this defense that walked out the door. I mean 12 defensive players left the building (and another was out most of the year) and we didn't really have the resources this year to improve on the talent (or experience) that was leaving the building (even if that talent was old or mediocre). As I said, I don't think any of those guys would have made a difference this year, but we've talked so much about the loss of Diggs and Davis, but there was a much bigger turnover on the defense. Creating a much bigger transition year on that side of the ball. I think the defense will be a big priority for the team this year in free agency and the draft. Also, over the last three years, the Chiefs and Eagles represent 5 of the 6 teams that have made the Super Bowl (the 49ers are the only other team to appear in a SB over the last three years). So, I thought that I would look at some defensive rankings of those two teams versus the Bills over those three seasons, just to see where we stack up (not sure if anything can be made of it though): 2024 Points allowed Yards allowed Sacks Pressures Chiefs #4 #9 #19 #15 Eagles* #2 #1 #14 #7 Bills #11 #17 #18 #13 2023 Chiefs* #3 #2 #2 #10 Eagles #30 #26 #19 #15 Bills #4 #9 #4 #9 2022 Chiefs* #16 #11 #2 #1 Eagles #8 #2 #1 #3 Bills #2 #6 #15 #13 * Super Bowl winner And just FYI, team defensive rankings since 2009: Year Fangio defenses McDermott defenses Points Yards Points Yards 2009 --- --- #10 #11 2010 --- --- #9 #5 2011 #4 #14 #20 #11 2012 #4 #3 #18 #8 2013 #3 #14 #4 #12 2014 #22 #15 #23 #12 2015 #21 #16 #1 #5 2016 #28 #12 #25 #25 2017 #20 #26 #21 #29 2018 #4 #5 #18 #30 2019 #21 #25 #9 #24 2020 #29 #26 #5 #8 2021 #17 #17 #1 #1 2022 --- --- #1 #3 2023 #5 #2 #4 #5 2024 #2 #2 #3 #9 AVG 13.8 13.6 10.8 12.4 Sean's defenses were top 10 in points allowed 10 times in the last 16 years. His defense has been top 10 in yards allowed 8 times in the last 16 years. Vic's defenses were top 10 in points allowed 6 times in 13 of the last 16 years. His defenses have been top 10 in yards allowed 4 times in 13 of the last 16 years. I know our defense has not fared so well in the playoffs of late, and that is most of people's issues with Sean's defense. I'm just pointing out these rankings because I think sometimes the grass looks greener in the neighbor's yard. Or, we take for granted what we do have. Some Bills fans act like Fangio is the greatest defensive mind ever and McDermott sucks. As for playoffs, since Fangio came back to the league as defensive coordinator in 2011, their playoff records look like this: Fangio: 8-5, 4 Championship game appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 win, 1 loss). Fangio's teams (as HC or DC) missed the playoffs 7 times over that span. McDermott: 10-10, 3 Championship game appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance (loss). McD's teams (as HC and DC) missed the playoffs 4 times over that span. Prior to this season's playoffs, Fangio (since 2011) was 5-5, 3 Championship game appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance (loss). Almost identical to McD...just fewer overall playoff games. From 2015-2023, their playoff records were: McD: 9-8, 2 Championship game appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance (loss), 2 years missed playoffs Vic: 0-2, 0 Championship game appearances, 0 Super Bowl appearances, 6 years missed playoffs And if we add in this year, from 2015-2024: McD: 11-9, 3 Championship game appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance (loss), 2 years missed playoffs Vic: 3-2, 1 Championship game appearance, 1 Super Bowl appearance (win), 6 years missed playoffs. I know I'll probably be called a Homer for this post...and I'm not saying McDermott is better than Fangio...just pointing out that the gap probably isn't as big as some people think.

So Lamar gets All-Pro, Josh gets MVP, and Saquon gets a ring. I guess that's fair. [Though would have preferred Josh and Saquon swapping spots, of course.]

👆The above stat is actually really crazy when you think about it. -Ryan is 35th on the all-time passing list (There are 22 HOF QBs with fewer passing yards---but, of course Fitzmagic played at a time where QBs threw a lot more). -Fitz is 39th on the all-time passing TDs list (There are 16 HOF QBs with fewer passing TDs---again, gotta look at era and time played too). His numbers are actually almost identical to Jim Kelly's stats. And Jim never won a Super Bowl...but, obviously had much more post-season success (and 4 SB appearances---with a revolutionary offense). I would love to see it happen for Ryan (to go in as the greatest journeyman QB ever---I mean, that is something). But, a sub .500 record and never making it to or playing in the playoffs would seem to kill his chances, imo. People remember the post-season. He is the QB with the most passing yards and passing TDs without a playoff appearance. In his defense though, being the journeyman that he was, he was basically shipped from one of the worst teams in the league, to another one of the worst teams in the league throughout his career. He was never really given a chance in a good franchise, with a stable coaching staff, and a good team around him. Are there other QBs in the HOF who have the stats but not the team success? Now to the question of can you write the story of the NFL in that era without that player. And really, I think you could write the story without Ryan (he might not make the cut if it were a documentary), it just wouldn't be nearly as much fun if you left him out. And I actually wouldn't mind if they put him on the Wall of Fame one day (though there are plenty of guys in front of him in line still---and I get why some people wouldn't think he is worthy of that honor). I mean, yeah, he only played 4 losing seasons in Buffalo, but honestly, despite the team's records, he was a bright spot in the darkness of the drought. And he has really embraced Buffalo, both while he played here and since he retired. Pretty amazing to kind of be a legend in a city that you only played 4 losing seasons for. But again, lots of guys ahead of him still (Butch Byrd, Kyle Williams, Cornelius Bennett, Eric Moulds, Ted Washington, Fred Jackson, Brian Moorman). Not sure if this thread is tongue-in-cheek, but I like it either way (and that you've kept the drive alive). I don't think he'll ever make the HOF, but I do think you can make a case for him at least.

Very Surprised...but very happy for Josh, the team, the Allen family. Congrats Josh! So well deserved...and overdue. Thanks for embracing Buffalo [Western New York/Southern Ontario] and putting us back on the map! Go Bills!

Ok, I actually watched the whole video. This analysis is from one person only (Steve Smith). The video is from week 9 or 10. Keon had only played 8 games as a rookie and had 36 total targets. Smith admits that he didn't like him coming out of college, so, he of course is also wanting to confirm his bias. He also says things like, "Am I being critical, yes, but prior to the trade for Amari Cooper, this is a guy that they said was going to replace Stefon Diggs." No one expected him to replace Diggs. Different types of receivers, Bills offense was going in a different direction (bigger, stronger WRs), he wasn't expected to perform as a #1 WR (Bills were easing him in his rookie year). So, that already calls into question his analysis. Also, when this video was made, Keon's last two games he had just gone for 170 yards and a TD. No mention of that. Keon was coming on at that point (just before the injury). Maybe Steve wanted to keep his pre-draft analysis relevant. Now, does he have some points about Keon's footwork, or strength at the line, or whatever, sure, yeah, Keon probably has a lot to improve on/get coached up on. He was a rookie with only 8 games under his belt. BUT, Smith's film analysis consisted of 5 plays: Play 1: It does look like Keon is the #1 read, he does not get clean/great separation. But Steve says himself, it's not Keon's fault that Josh didn't go to him, because the LBer cracking down on the RB closed the window. So, play one...could be better technique, but not his fault. Play went to Shakir for 6 yards, close to a first down. Play 2: He's against Jalen Ramsey (a very good CB). Josh drops the snap, so the play is already busted from the get-go. Jalen jams Keon good, but then Keon releases and is actually wide open down the field, but Josh does't get him the ball. Steve says, "Does he win in the end? Yeah, but..." Can't quite tell from the video, but it looks like the play goes to Shakir for a first down on the scramble drill. And in the end, Keon won against Ramsey and was open, so... Play 3: Keon is on the far right. Josh reads the field from left to right, hitting Shakir, his third read, over the middle. Again, could Keon's footwork have been better on his route, sure, but he was at best, the 4th read on the play. And the play went for a 16-yard completion and first down to Shakir. Play 4: Again, Josh starts reading the field from the opposite side of Keon. So, again, Keon is probably the 4th read. When Josh got to his second read, he started to run, because the line was collapsing. Josh scrambles for like 6 yards and the first. [With both plays 3 and 4 Smith and the host say things like, Josh isn't even looking at him...even when the play breaks down, Josh isn't looking for his big man. Smith actually says, "the quarterback isn't even looking at him...the QB is like I'm playing 10 on 11." Josh wasn't looking at him because he was like the 4th read in the progression.] Play 5: Is a Coleman reception. A beautiful 23-yard sideline catch. Steve starts out by saying, "This is a good play, but..." "Does he make the catch, yes, great catch, but..." So, the really bad plays he has to show us are: one great catch, another play he wins on a scramble drill but Josh doesn't find him, another play that Smith says wasn't Keon's fault, and two plays where he was like the 4th read in the play (not to mention that all 5 of those plays still ended up being positive plays for the Bills---4 of them went for first downs). Tough to take his analysis too seriously---despite agreeing that Keon probably does need to work on his technique. But, that's for all rookies really.