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Everything posted by Dr. Who
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Will DeAndre Hopkins be available this offseason?
Dr. Who replied to NeverOutNick's topic in The Stadium Wall
Two points: I believe Kincaid will actually get a lot snaps as a big slot. This is not going to help this thread achieve its natural destiny of 300 pages. -
Sweet, sweet Boston tears.
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My rule of thumb: before hibernation, always make sure you have a sufficient supply of Scotch.
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Another aspect of evaluating the recently concluded draft is that Beane probably will have a tradeable asset or two out of the IOL depth that has been added over the offseason that could further add to the cache of future draft picks. All those folks so terribly angered by trading a late fourth might temper their chagrin by contemplating the surfeit of riches in the future; but we know they won't.
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I think there is some truth to what you assert, but there's also something circular in the argument. Unless Kincaid puts up sufficient numbers to establish a consistent threat across the entire field, the defense will ultimately accept a certain amount of damage and concentrate elsewhere. Seems to me that level of sufficient is likely to entail a pretty big number and not simply a collection of opportune moments, though there may be a gray area between a high target number and what is enough to influence the defense.
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Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production
Dr. Who replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
1) You've shifted arguments. Are you now accepting or at least showing minimal cognizance that Kincaid is not Knox's backup or a typical TE2? He is a big slot or flex TE which is different. 2) McKenzie was a gadget guy and good against man. He wasn't great against zone because he couldn't find the soft spot. Beasley was excellent at the latter, so they are not the same kind of slot. It's likely with his physical advantage, truly superior catch skills, and feel for finding open areas that Kincaid will supersede either of the players you mentioned. 3) Kincaid is not only adept at the chain moving plays that Beasley was great at, he can stretch the field and make the big plays Josh prizes. With his reliability as a pass catcher, I suspect he will quickly become a favorite and thus accrue many more targets than you surmise. -
Why the gratuitous need to cast shade? Not very sporting. Bill from NYC is a keen observer of Bama. I think his opinion is valuable. If you're not interested, why don't you just decently remain silent. It's not hard.
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I just want to trot Harty out next to the behemoths. Confusion and laughter should work to our advantage.
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I was going to tell you those were really lofty expectations, but the edit clarified the meaning. He could fall somewhat short of that and still be a weapon and good player, but if he is special the way I believe he needs that kind of production to fully justify the pick.
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I think Kelce is his ceiling, but you are talking about a future HOF and one of the best to ever play the position. No one expects Kincaid will have Kelce's production right out of the gate. He's a big slot, or a flex TE.
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I guess I have more tolerance for the misses. I like the Grand Budapest Hotel -- I also appreciate Stefan Zweig whose work inspired the film. Didn't think Fantastic Mister Fox was great, but mildly amusing.
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Too crude a form of analysis to just look at size and 40 speed to ascertain what a player brings to the table. They are very different players which is why one of them was ranked #9 in Daniel Jeremiah's top 150 prospects and the other was not on the list.
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He is limited to guard only. Teams value positional flexibility. So do the Bills, but they were right, expecially at 59, to take the fella that can man one spot for the next 10 years.
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It's hard to win the draft when you are picking back end of the round, only have six picks, and trade the fourth rounder to move up in the first. You can always point to teams with multiple firsts or who pick early. Those who like the Philly draft, well, I'm a Bulldogs fan, so I'm not going to argue, I think they had a fine draft, but there actually are some question marks on Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, so those selections have some gamble in them. On balance, I believe the Bills' draft is quite good. This draft was not a great talent pool, so one should judge Beane's actions in that context. Moving up to secure an offensive weapon and surely the last or one of the last genuine first rounders on the board was not a ridiculous move. Those who are exasperated as far as I can tell almost always did not like the Kincaid pick. If you don't like the pick, you're going to be annoyed by paying to move up. If you did like Kincaid, you're more than likely okay with the price to make sure he did not end up a Cowboy or a Chief or one of the other teams that were reportedly interested in trading up to get him. On Kincaid, I keep reading a lot of cantankerous fellows complaining about TE draft value. I am wondering how many of them were in a bad mood because Jack Campbell was off the board. Regardless, Kincaid is an offensive weapon. He's not Knox's replacement. Knox will continue to be a fine TE1 who had to provide blocking help too often last year to the detriment of offensive opportunties. Kincaid is a big slot, middle of the field offensive threat who can stretch the field and automatically makes the RZ attack harder to predict. Williams is a MLB. They are afraid to say it. They don't want to put too much pressure on a rookie. He may need a year to learn the system. He may not be ready to qb the defense right out of the gate. But that is where he is ultimately projected. There were receivers I liked better than Justin Shorter available, but he's the big Wr they needed to add to the room. We're going to confuse the hell out of folks when we trot out Harty and Shorter and shorter is the tall one. (Shorter, of course, may well be a practice squad guy, but I wasn't going to waste a good joke.) Broeker is great value in the seventh and I can see him making the team. O'Cyrus and the Kent Hull award winner add absolutely needed snarl to the interior of the line. Torrence fell because he is limited to guard only, but he is tremendous value at 59 and should be an anchor on the line for ten years. With the new numbers through the draft and free agency at IOL, the weakness in the middle should be improved, maybe considerably. Now if only they had found a way to bring in genuine competition for Brown. Folks who come away this early thinking this draft is a fail have an agenda, were too fixated on the defense and particularly on MLB, or they are not properly gauging the value of Kincaid. If you doubt Dorsey as an OC and believe he is not up to the job, that's not on the players. The league favors offense. This was a year to build a fortress around Josh and add weapons. Within the constraints of the possible, Beane did a very solid job, grabbing one of the elite playmakers who just happens to be called TE by convention, one of the top offensive linemen, a LB with speed, instincts, and MLB potential, a flier on a WR with untapped potential and elite traits, two seventh rounders who have a legitimate chance to compete for a spot, whilst stocking next year's draft. Adding picks for next year when the draft is supposed to be better is prudent, whilst also giving Beane more ammo to maneuver.
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I don't know, but @MAJBobby believes he may end up being a genuine alternative to Brown. I hope that is true, because I'm not really a fan of UPS.
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RD 5, Pick 150: WR Justin Shorter, Florida
Dr. Who replied to Chandler#81's topic in The Stadium Wall
Not a critique of your evaluation. On the contrary, you might very well be correct. I'm just saying the fella who gets the face time has an advantage if it goes well. -
Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production
Dr. Who replied to FireChans's topic in The Stadium Wall
If Kincaid is getting significant snaps as a big slot, he should have plenty of opportunities to put up relatively strong numbers. The weakness at slot last year was one of the main contributing factors in the uneven production of the offense. I am annoyed by those who keep bringing assumptions that pertain to traditional TE usage to Kincaid. Kelce is the exemplar that anticipates the kind of career he will ideally achieve. Knox will continue to get TE1 looks, but I expect Kincaid to ultimately emerge as the alternate to a WR2 in terms of priority of targets. -
RD 5, Pick 150: WR Justin Shorter, Florida
Dr. Who replied to Chandler#81's topic in The Stadium Wall
Since it's been reported the Bills had a personal meeting before the draft with this fella, I've got to figure it was a combination of talent, potential, and character that influenced the selection. Perry and Higgins may be better players now for all I know, but I'm not aware Bills' scouts talked to or observed them personally. Shorter appears quite bright and confident. Maybe he's going to be mistaken, but I'm sure he's correct about his innate talent and drive to achieve. In any event, he had the close contact with the folks doing the hiring and it paid off by giving him the opportunity. -
RD 5, Pick 150: WR Justin Shorter, Florida
Dr. Who replied to Chandler#81's topic in The Stadium Wall
I think Josh Allen will bring out the best in him. -
A number of posters who I think have expertise on oline had expressed concerns on scheme fit before the draft. Some of that was directed at whether Torrence was worth #27 overall. Almost everyone acknowledges he is a good player. Charlie Campbell had mentioned that several teams had concerns about a sloppy or bad body with Torrence. I'm not an expert, so I gave some credence to that talk. @MAJBobby upthread? somewhere, in any event, articulated a rationale for the selection that seems plausible. In any event, I'm happy with the pick.
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The more I have thought about this pick and read various reactions, the more I like it. However, I think you have to allow that the pick reminded folks of the Bernard selection last year. Bernard may yet work out, but his first year was uninspiring and folks saw the pick as doubling down on a prior mistake. And there were good players at other positions that seemed worth taking. I liked Ika, the massive Baylor DT, for instance.
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It's an excellent seventh round pick.
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Hopkins. Mostly joking.
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Torrence and Broeker adding some snarl to the IOL. We need it.
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I know. It's just the connection to Hull that is sentimentally appealing.