Luxy312

Let's see. Based on the history of the NFL: -1 in turnovers = you lose almost 90% of the time. -2 in turnovers = you lose almost 95% of the time. -3 in turnovers = you lose almost 98% of the time. There are always exceptions, but this is the most telling statistic in football. If a coach was going to be obnoxious about anything, this should be it.

This weekend is the proverbial proof for me. The Bills DSRS is the best in the NFL, while the Bengals OSRS is the 5th worst in the league. They should not score more than 14 points against Buffalo. On the flip side, the Bengals defense has been pretty good. Only the Packers generated more than 300 yards of total offense against them and they have not allowed a 100 yards rusher yet this season. This Sunday's game has all of the hallmarks of Bills teams of the past. Win games you're not supposed to win and lose games you're not supposed to lose. Despite being a 3 point underdog by Vegas standards, I feel like this is a game that they should absolutely win. It should not come down to late game defensive heroics like the Atlanta game.

The Bills can win this game on the road, but have to do two things. 1 - They must win the turnover battle. Denver did better than us in the running game, passing game, and special teams. The only reason the Bills won is because they were +2 in turnovers. Based on the history of the NFL, a +2 turnover margin means you win the game about 95% of the time. Most people would probably believe that I would have as my #2 that we must run the football. I do not. #2 for me is actually that they have to get pressure on Matt Ryan. Detroit was actually +3 in turnovers this past Sunday and they still lost. They barely touched Matt Ryan and he passed for almost 300 yards. He did whatever he wanted to. I don't think that Buffalo or Atlanta has much success on the ground, at least as it pertains to the running backs. Both teams have good defenses against the run. I think that the team that gets after the others quarterback better is the team that causes the other team to make mistakes and wins.

The Bills defense has been top-10 in the NFL against both the pass and run. The problem for the Bills is that Atlanta has been almost as stingy against the run as our own defense, allowing only 85.0 YPG. Much like the Denver game, I think the Bills must be at least +1 if not +2 in the turnover battle to win this one on the road. Let's not forget that Denver was better passing and better running the football on Sunday. The only difference in that game was really turnovers. They had 94 more yards of offense and 5 more first downs.

I will not be in Hammer's Lot, but will be in Hammer's DRIVEWAY at his house. LOL. If anyone stops by, ask for Lux!

Jordan Matthews is 100% correct. He doesn't have to SAY that running zone coverage is easier for opponents defensive backs for anyone to know that is true. Keeps coming back to the same point that Taylor just isn't confident enough to "throw" his receivers open. I would expect every team we face this season to run zone coverages and put 8-9 guys in the box to defend the run. Why wouldn't you do that, until it starts to beat you?

I "ty-rod" to catch it.

Your bet is a bit tricky, and I'll tell you why. Despite having an overall record of around 0.500 with the Bills, Tyrod's record when he throws for more than 200 yards is 4-11. I'm pretty certain that Denver is going to follow Carolina's game plan and put 8-9 guys in the box on most plays to stop the run and make Taylor beat them with the pass. I do think Taylor throws for over 200 yards, but also think that's the recipe for a loss and not a win. 11-4 he is when he throws for under 200 yards and the running game and defense perform at a high level. Betting with the math here and the Broncos run defense which has allowed 104 rushing yards in their first two games combined. I'll take a Bills "L".

Nope. The better his numbers the team lost almost 4X the games when his numbers were mediocre to bad. You can look it up. You can't make this stuff up.

I've done some research folks and there's some simple facts associated with our current quarterback. Divide all of the games he's started in half and rank them in order of passing yards. Now look at the win loss record of those games for the team (yes I said TEAM) for the games where he's been most productive versus the games he's been the least productive. His win % in his most productive games is 19%. His win % in his least productive games is is almost 4X that. Taking all the anecdotal stuff aside (defense wasn't good enough; Sammy Watkins; etc.), the simple fact is that he isn't a guy that can carry or lead a team and win. His record (if you even want to call it "his") is because of what his team mates do, not him. The opposite is true for any of the quarterbacks that we would consider great or even good quarterbacks. When their productivity is up, they're winning most of their games. When their productivity is down, that's when their team loses. It's not always 100% of the time, but it's telling. The old saying is applicable here that "you can see a lot by looking". There probably isn't a better scrambler than Tyrod. However, when you force him to beat you in the air, he just can't do it. It has nothing to do with the guys that he has catching the football, his weapons, or his offensive line. That's just another excuse.

Buy - Trevor Siemian. He's been accurate. Sell - The Bills passing game. Atrocious, anemic, whatever you want to call it. Hold - McDermott. He's got the defense completely turned around and should get credit for it. Still has work to do on the offense.

My take on this team is pretty simple and reflective of what the Bills could do last year. I know it's not the same coach or scheme, but still believe it's relevant because of the players on the field. When the Bills really piled on the rushing attack last year, they won games. Top-8 games rushing the ball and they went 5-3 last year. Bottom-8 games and they went 2-6. It's not just the run though, but how productive the passing game was. Most of the time, when the passing game had to do little (mainly where the running game dominated), they won games. Only 1 of their 7 wins last year came when the rushing attack yielded less than 150 yards of offense and the passing game yielded more than 200 yards. Teams can't be so stupid to not figure out that the Bills passing game can't win. People can play the "Sammy" card all they want. I'm just not buying it. At this point, I'm looking forward to week 7 and beyond when Peterman gets his chance to show the Bills whether he deserves the helm in 2018. Sooner, obviously, if Tyrod gets hurt. If I'm an opposing defense, I man cover McCoy; spy Tyrod at the line of scrimmage and make him beat my zone coverage. I just don't think he's capable of doing it.

Semen is going to take it on the chin this weekend.

I've watched over 20 games played by Taylor so far. Certainly not every game he's played, but an awful lot of them. This throw wasn't a lot different than many throws that I've seen. Here are the characteristics that I see: He doesn't "throw" receivers open. Rarely will you see a pass that leaves his hand while a receiver is still covered in a pattern. The passes that are occasionally in the proverbial bread basket are usually guys that aren't moving. Typically busted coverage or a hole in a zone scheme. When guys are covered and are moving, he still throws away from the defender even if that means throwing behind the receiver. Zay Jones route was clearly a flat to the sideline, designed to either get the first out of bounds or get in the end zone. Taylor threw the pass high and behind him, going away from the defender. It's typical. Throw that pass a second sooner (when Jones was still covered tight) and it's probably a touchdown. I continue to want to believe that he can "turn the corner" or "be the guy". The reality for me is that he cannot. We have seen all that we're going to see from him. His best days are 220 yards passing and 50 yards rushing for a couple scores. That's when the running game is getting it done. Many of us were expecting to find gold and now our convincing ourselves that the gray metal we found is that. It's not.

It's weird that their turf took on the exact opposite quality of Tom Brady's balls. So THAT's where all that missing air went!

Tyrod has: Better completion percentage, better TD's per pass attempt, better (lower) INT's per pass attempt, higher YPG, lower sack % per pass attempt, more rushing yards and TD's per rush attempt, less fumbles per snap. I don't need to manufacture statistics to come up with a reason to suggest that some National Anthem kneeling political ass-clown locker room/media cancer is the same as what the Bills already have. He's not and it's not even close. Kaepernick's best was 4 years ago. Taylor's best is now.

Let's not forget that Trent looked good until he got his bell wrong. From that point forward, he played in fear.

To the O.P., I'm not sure why you are so bothered. We're not just talking about a bad NFL team in the Jets, a team with the worst odds in NFL history going into week 1 of winning the Superbowl (1,000-1). Next closest in the entire history of the NFL is 250-1. If the Jets had won the game, I'm sure their fans would have been saying "it's just the Bills" with the expectation that the Bills are supposed to be a bad team (which they are). If by some miracle, we get to the end of week 3 and the Bills are sitting there at 3-0, we won't be saying "it's just the Jets, Panthers, and Broncos". If they're 1-2, then yes. It's just the Jets. Many expect them to be 1-2 after the next two games.

There's a number of things that have to happen IMO for the Bills to win this game or it could get out of hand. Not in any particular order: 1 - The offense needs sustained drives with a good mix of pass and run. I think the Panthers will focus on stopping the run and force Taylor to throw the football. He has to get the ball out quicker than he was versus the Jets. 2 - The defense needs to do a good job stopping the run like they did against the Jets. McCaffrey is going to be a nightmare to cover. I'm not scared of any of the other guys. 3 - If they can do #2, they need to get pressure on Cam Newton. If he has as long as McCown did to throw the ball, he could throw for at least 300 yards and 3 TD's. The only wildcard for me is whether Cam is even 100% at this point. He will get better week to week. I don't doubt that one bit.

When you look at the QB's stat lines, they're not that different. 14/25 with 171 yards 2TD's to 1 INT. The other 16/28 with 224 yards 2TD's to 1 INT. The first guy added 6 carries for 3 yards while the other added 8 for another 38 yards. Both teams held their opponents down with the first allowing 217 yards of offense to the second's 214 yards. They sound alike but they're really not. Looking at a players "upside", I would say any time that your QB produces 300+ yards of offense, and/or 3+ TD's that that's a good day. In 94 games, Cam Newton has done that about 29.8% of the time. By comparison, Tyrod has done it about 19.4% of the time in his 31 games. I don't know how many of my friends on here like math or hate it, but 29.8% is more than 50% greater than 19.4%. The difference in this weeks performance is not much. What is different is that Cam Newton was well below his average, whereas Tyrod was right where we would have expected him to be. 7.5 points seems to "feel" correct.

I didn't say don't force them to pass. What I said was GET PRESSURE on the QB when you do. He had all the time in the world on most of those attempts. Try to stay with the theme here. Quarterbacks this year that I don't want to have around 40 pass attempts with almost no pressure on them include: Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, David Carr, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady X2, and Andrew Luck (if he's back). They simply will not win those games if that's their approach. As far as being methodical, I just cannot agree with you. There were some pretty big plays in each of the 3 TD drives. Converting on 3rd and 20 on one of them was highly unlikely. Looking at the rest of the body of work, we had 3 three and outs, a 4 and out, a 5 and out, a 6 and out and a 6 and missed FG. Lot's of possessions with little to no productivity. This, against a team that had the worst opening odds of winning a Superbowl in the history of the NFL. I'm happy for the expected win against a team by basically the projected point margin. I see a lot of issues none the less when I take off my rose colored glasses.

I have not read through all 13 pages of this thread, but have just a few observations. 1 - I expected the offense to struggle a bit and except for McCoy, they really did. There were a lot of big break plays, but not a lot of methodical movement of the ball down the field. Tyrod was just OK, but not great. I'm optimistic that he's looking for Clay more than probably the last two seasons combined. When the receivers are covered, Clay and O'Leary need to be outlets. The ball still has to come out faster, but the offense probably exceeded my expectations by some margin. Not huge, but by some. 2 - I expected the defense to be better. They clearly decided that they were not going to be beaten by the run game. 2.5 YPC for the collective Jets backs. 39 pass attempts from McCown concerns me a lot. I could be wrong, but believe that many attempts from Brady or any of the other good QB's in the league and the Bills get beat. I saw virtually no pressure from the front four. I didn't see the typical bone headed plays from the likes of Hughes, which is promising. I would again say that the defense under performed, but also by not that much. Week one of the regular season usually doesn't tell us much of anything. There were a lot of teams that came out and competed where there was very little expectations they could win. The Bears were one dropped pass from beating the Falcons. The Browns only lost to the Steelers by 3. The Panthers looked pretty pedestrian against what's supposed to be a terrible 49ers team. The Jaguars even put on a show against what was supposed to be a stout Houston defense. I guess I'm surprised, but not shocked. The next couple of weeks will be a lot more telling in terms of what this team has and has not.

The Jets are a dumpster fire wrapped in flaming garbage and used ladies toiletries. They're clearly tanking for a draft pick. So what if they get Darnold, honestly. How many NFL greats have come out of USC? Mark Sanchez, aka the "Sanchize" ring a bell? How about Matt Barkley? Matt Leinert was garbage. Todd Marinovich anyone? Cody Kessler, Matt Cassell, Rob Johnson. Carson Palmer is the best NFL QB to come out of that school and he's not even top ten in the league in most of the years he's played. Darnold would also be joining a team of aging veterans almost completely devoid of talent. They will be like the Browns were last year, but worse. Anyone think that Browns are Superbowl ready after a 1 and 15 season and a few high draft picks? I don't. It's still the JESTS to me.

This is the key point folks. Taylor would seek a starting role elsewhere and there's zero chance we keep a backup on the roster at that price point. Based on what I've seen so far, he's pretty much the same Tyrod Taylor we had on the roster for the last two seasons. He's unable to throw his receivers open and holds onto the ball way too long. Just an average starter in the NFL today.

QB's the same until further notice. Peterson has looked decent in preseason, but let's not forget that so did EJ. Let's see what the backups do if Tyrod gets hurt. Clearly if he doesn't get hurt, we can say same. RB's worse. Gillislee was a solid backup for McCoy. I don't think I can say we got better with Tolbert. WR's maybe slightly better. We as fans continue to make Watkins to be some stud. Matthews was more consistent than Watkins over the last three years. I get arguing Sammy's upside, but we haven't SEEN his upside. Adding Zay Jones in the draft IMO makes us better as well. OL/TE's same. DL better due to a combination of health and suspensions last year. Core returns and should be better barring injury. LB's better due to health as well. Core also returns. If Ragland becomes a bust, then you could say even. DB's, I'm mixed on. With Gilmore and Darby both gone, you could argue we downgraded the CB's with Gaines. None the less, Micah Hyde is a definitive improvement over last year. Maybe that balances out to being the same. I could see an argument though to say worse. Coaching is a TBD. This is his first year as a HC. I'm most worried right now about how the locker room responds to the trades and Boldin's retirement.