Estro

This type of trade rarely happens. In 2009 the 49ers traded the #43 & #111 picks (their 2nd & 4th round picks in 2009) for the Panthers 2010 1st round pick. The Panthers selected Everette Brown. The Panthers ended up finishing 8-8 thr following season & the 49ers got the 17th pick in the 2010 draft. This was a relative fleecing by the 49ers, but because teams discount future picks, usually by a round it could be argues it was a fair trade. The more likely trade scenario you see nowadays is a team trades up from the middle of the 2nd round to the back end of the first round and gives up next years 2nd rounder. The Colts pulled this off during the 2019 draft. They traded their 1st rounder, #26 overall, to the Redskins for their 2nd rounder, #46 overall, & their 2020 2nd rounder. That pick ended up being the #34 overall pick in the 2020 draft. The above scenario is what I'd love for the Bills to do. Move back 10-15 spots for an additional 3rd rounder this year or move back 20-25 spots for a future 2nd rounder.

At this point any teams with potential interest in Ertz would have a tough time absorbing his $8+M cap hit. A team like Indy comes to mind as having enough room, but an $8M cap hit is a very tough contract to squeeze onto your roster @ this point in FA. I think most of the league also understands that the Eagles are 100% releasing Ertz if they aren't able to trade him & I predict that his release would come relatively soon. Holding onto a player you clearly intend on releasing and then dumping him a week or 2 after the FA $ has dried up is viewed as a pretty dirty move, so the Eagles aren't helping their external image amongst players any. Also the Eagles have no cap space, so they'll need that $8M in cap room to plug a couple of holes with guys that are available right now that might not be around in a week or 2. I think Beane understands all of this, which is why he's not budging off his late round pick offer or maybe a mid round swap......and that's absolutely the right move by Beane. Howie Roseman is a poker player that bluffs too often & Beane is much too calculated to fall for it. I'd be shocked if Ertz is an Eagle by the end of this month.

I know it's not the popular or safe take yo gave in our super "woke" climate, but in this country it's innocent until proven guilty. Could this be true? Of course Could it be total B.S? Absolutely Let the facts get out, but until that happens let's not let allegations destroy someone

Adoree Jackson had high end punt return production coming out of USC if I remember correctly

RFAs that were not offered tenders do not count as losses in the comp pick formula. So losing Wallace, Bojo or Ike doesn't help us. That said I still think there a decent chance the Bills have a net loss of UFA's. Nsekhe's deal would have to be north of $3.5APY for us to get a 6th round comp pick in '22. Be interested if it's close to that.

The Pats moves to me are a clear indicator that they have their eyes on trading up for a QB in the 1st round. I dont think they're signing all of these weapons just to watch Cam Newton throw them ground-balls all season. Will it be a trade up into the 5-7 range for Fields or Trey Lance or will it be a trade up into the 9-13 range for Mac Jones? Not sure, but my gut tells me they'd prefer an athletic type so my money is on Fields or Lance.

Andy Dalton - Texans

2 years left for $11.25M is, IMO a very fair and tradeable contract..... Bills don't have a 4th rounder and not sure I'd want to part with a 3rd for him, but I don't think a 5th is enough. Maybe a pick swap?

Correct. Howie Roseman, pulled the same stunt with Cason Wentz, which was about to be traded for 2 weeks for two 1st rounders. Everyone seems to know what's up in Philly, I'm not buying it. In this year with the cap crunch I really don't think Ertz's contract is tradeable.

Translation: "Please somebody/anybody make us an offer before we have to release him."

https://images.app.goo.gl/7vCakj6BgQmEuoEp8 Curtis Samuel. Young (will only be 25 this season), fast, quick, a John Brown & Isaiah McKenzie replacement rolled into 1 player. This guy has untapped potential, as he's never really played in a potential offense with a good QB. I still don't forget how much local media fawned over him when the Bills & Panthers held joint practices. Yea, but we can't afford him. Yes we can. 4 years - $48.5M $8M signing bonus '21 - $5.5 base, $7.5M cap hit '22 - $10.5M base, $12.5M cap hit Potential out w/ $4M dead cap (as Beane always seems to do) '23 - $11.5M base, $13.5M cap hit '24 - $13M base, $15M cap hit Simply restructuring Diggs deal or giving him a 2 year extension adds $6-7M in cap room this year, which paves the way for Curtis Samuel. Yes, it adds to our future cap allocation, but these are the moves trams make when they have winning the SB in mind.

I personally think cutting John Brown makes WR a big need. Everyone loves Diggs, but Beasley & Gabe Davis as our #2 and #3 is not great, IMO. I think a pass catcher (TE or WR) will be added with either a quality FA or a top 60 pick in the draft. Keep adding young weapons to our offense.

He did not play at 180, maybe he can get there, but hes rail thin on film at Purdue, small and skinny I'm a fan of his work, but I do think he's slipped a little bit. Him and Fairburn are good, but sometimes they're very matter of fact about things they really have no clue about. I've lately been enjoying Greg Thompson lately, he doesn't take himself as seriously and does a great job. Joe B is still go to come draft season, he puts in the work, but ever since the switch to the Athletic I just feel like he's not as honed in.

I'd prioritize OL, DE & CB over WR, but I do think we need WR help. Brown is gone, Beasley is older, Diggs is paid well and probably going to be paid even more here soon. I'd like to see another young draft pick added to Gabe Davis and the others. My preference would be for the Bills to trade back from pick #30 and pick up an additional mid 3rd round pick. So we have 4 biyes at the apple in the top 90 picks.

Dyami Brown is a good name to bring up, too, because Ive asked myself who I thought would be drafted first Brown or Rodgers. I like Rodgers more. Dyami might have more straight line speed, but Rodgers acceleration, short area quickness and contact balance are all superior.

Amari Rodgers 😍 I just profiled him in a separate topic. Really love his fit in our offense. It's time to find some younger, cheaper juice for this offense and keep adding weapons for Josh.

With the loss of John Brown, I think/hope the Bills should have interest in a WR in the draft. Rodgers is a guy that has a skillset that I think the Bills would covet. He's built almost like a RB, super thick, strong WR that possesses both short area quickness and long speed. He also has really good contact balance and quick acceleration. I just think this guy could be a high end John Brown (deep routes) & even Isaiah McKenzie (gadgets, end arounds) replacement & also has the ability to be a dynamite slot WR when Cole Beasley eventually can't do it anymore (which might be as soon as 2022). I've seen guys like Rondale Moore get some late 1st, early 2nd round hype and I like this guy a lot more. I'm not a big fan of Rondale Moore's, admittedly, as I just don't trust taking players that small early in the draft (think Tavon Austin/Roscoe Parrish.) Rodgers ran a 4.5 40 yard dash at his pro day today, which for me is plenty fast for a guy as tough and quick as he is. I've seen Randall Cobb comps by Daniel Jeremiah, but I see a lot of Deebo Samuel in his game, who I really like. If memory serves me correctly the Bills liked Deebo quite a bit too. Another added bonus is he has special teams value as a returner, which we know the Bills covet & with McKenzie & Roberts currently UFA's there's a clear need for that. I just love the idea of getting 1 player that has the skillset to replace 2 or 3 players on our roster last year (McKenzie, Robert's, Brown) and even a slot guy like Beasley in '22. I dont think Rodgers is a 1st round prospect, but I think hes a lot closer to a mid 2nd round pick than he is a late 3rd or early 4th rounder, which I've seen some project him as. Listening to the Ross Tucker podcast today Greg Cosell kind of raved about how much he liked Rodgers as a prospect, which kind of reinforced my thoughts on him. Last week I thought he'd be a hell of a 3rd round pick, but I'm not sure he makes it to our 2nd round pick let alone 3rd. Either way, Rodgers is a guy I'd be stoked to see in a Bills uni come next September. What do you guys think?

I might be in the minority but Rondale Moore doesn't move the needle for me. As a matter of philosophy I think its best to stay away from 175 lb athletes in the NFL. I just don't see it with him. Tavon Austin, was a more electric athlete, IMO & I jisy dont think players that size translate in the pros

Smart trade for a team that can absorb the $11M cap hit. Get a decent starter, and if he leaves next year you're very likely in line for a 4th round comp. Pick, which is more than you gave up to acquire him. Smart roster management

David is the better player, difference is he didn't make it to the open market. With Milano hitting FA and having all interested teams able to drive up his value, he might come close or even eclipse David. I believe David probably could've gotten another $1.5-2M per had he gone to the highest bidder........but factoring in no stare income tax in FL for his 8 home games & staying with a championship caliber team, I totally get it BTW when it comes to Milano I feel like: $9-10M per is good team valuable and very doable $11M per is probably the fair value $12-$12.5 per is a win for Milano and a bit of a premium price $13-14M per is dumb money

He was on Matt Parrino's pod last night.....and I didn't think he sounded all that optimistic that he'll be back. Like another poster stated I think theres angap between what Feliciano thinks he's worth and where the Bills value him. Mike Ginitti from Spotrac seemed to think In order for the Bills to retain Feliciano they may have to cut Morse......and I'm jist not sure I like that idea. I think Feliciano is maybe a little better than replacement level, and I don't think thr Bills can afford $7M a yr for that type of player. Add in a glut of vet FA G's that have been (Gabe Jackson, Incognito) released and those that'll be let go this coming week & I think you may be able to find a 1 yr deal on one of those guys for $3.5-$5M. I really believe the 2nd wave of FA is going to be a total buyers market and you might get some guys for 60-70 cents on the dollar compared to a normal FA yr.

Here's how I have some of these bets habdicapped And I bet these so I've actually put "some" money where my mouth is. I've got: 1. Zach Wilson 2nd Overall Pick (-200). I'm pretty confident in this one and I bet it pretty heavily, so much so, that it now has me a little worried something crazy could happen. The biggest worry would be the Jets trading for Watson and then not trading out of #2 & taking Chase or Sewell, but I'm pretty confident that if they did acquire Watson they'd trade the #2 pick and the team coming up would likely pick Wilson.......it is the Jets though, so I'm a but worried. After hitting the line several times @-200 I did notice they moved the line to -305. 2. Ja'Marr Chase 1st WR selected (-155) Another bet I have a lot riding on that I feel good about, feel like this line should be more in the -200 to -225 range. I'm actually more worried about Jaylen Waddle than I am Devonta Smith upsetting my bet, but I'm pretty confident in my bet at those odds. Current line is -167 on DK 3. Trey Lance picked before Justin Fields (+425) Put a little on this bet. Do I think its likely to happen? Probably not, but once again at those odds I feel like I've got the right side of the bet. I've heard a lot of negative takes on Fields especially from some guys I really respect like Greg Cosell who straight up said he liked Lance more than Fields & that Fields scares him. I could see the Eagles helping me win this bet. Time will tell. One last bet that I liked the value of was: Javonte Williams 1st RB Drafted (+800) Ultimately I passed on it, but I saw some definite value at those odds. Etienne and Harris get all the pub & ultimately I think its very likely one of those 2 is the 1st RB drafted, but RB is kinda what flavor do you like. Almost nobody had Edwards Helaire being the first RB taken last year and the morning of the draft his odds were +550 to go first. I think if a team is looking for a pass catching, homerun hitting RB Etienne will be the pick. If a team is looking for more of a workhorse, traditional RB I actually think Williams has a chance to be the first guy ahead of Harris. I know Greg Cosell (did I mention I listen to his thoughts closely!) likes Williams over Naseem Harris

I'm expecting there to be a pretty healthy jump in the cap in '22 and then again in '23, so while a $14.5M cap is heavy I don't think it'll be prohibitive. Also I don't think Beasley is a definite cut after this season, but it also would not be a surprise at all. No one would've been predicting John Brown would be cut this offseason a year ago, but now here we are a yr. later and its highly likely he'll be cut. I'm not saying Beasley definitely goes, but he is pretty old, and the cap savings will be substantial enough where it'll certainly be possible next offseason. I just really like the prospects of having Curtis Samuel in this offense and think he'd be a homerun signing. My philosophy is just keep adding to our offense, even if it means sacrificing some of the talent on D.

Curtis Samuel, IMO, is the perfect FA target for the Bills. I still remember Buffalo media members raving over his skillet when the Bills practiced Carolina a few years back. I also think he's a WR that is very underrated due to the QBs he's played with (Cam on his downside & journeyman Teddy). I'm also of the belief that the Bills should prioritize adding weapons for the offense and making sacrifices on defense to keep our offense strong. I feel like McDermott can get more out of less on the defensive side of the ball, so I'd like to see our limited cap space spent on players that help our offense. Here's my idea of what a Curtis Samuel deal could look like that the Bills could easily fit in cap space wise this yr: 3 years - $34.5M $12M signing bonus Yr 1: $1.5M base ($13.5M cash), $5.5M cap Yr 2: $10.5M base, $14.5M cap Yr 3: $10.5M base $14.5M cap Keep in mind this could be Cole Beasley's last year on the Bills, so I like the idea of getting someone like Samuel who can replace Brown @ the X spot this year......but also a guy who is versatile enough to perhaps replace Cole Beasley @ the slot position in 2022 (the Bills save $6.1M by cutting Beasley next year) I also think a guy like Samuel would maybe take just a little bit less to play with Josh Allen & in an offense where his production could shine. I dont think he'd take a huge discount, but if it's between the Bills @ 3 years - $34.5M or say the Jets @ 3 yrs - $39M I could envision a scenario where he'd prefer the Bills.

Trade back. Unless you are targeting a QB it is a bad play to move up. It's like taking insurance in blackjack.....sometimes it works out and you win l, but its never the right move. I really hope they do trade back from #30 to the mid/late 40s and pick up an additional mid 3rd round pick.......or even a 4th and a future 2nd, like the Colts have often done under Chris Ballard. I think with all the disruptions to scouting and the entire college evaluation process this year there are going to be more finds in the mid rounds.