Estro

Better get that Josh Allen extension done quickly if true. If the cap is going to have some substantial jumps coming in the next few years what he signs for today, will be a relative bargain in a short amount of time.

I believe it was $198M cap this year, and it was believed this year was going to be around $215M(before Covid hit) in '21.....so you're talking about $30-$35M gone for teams budget. Going to see a ton of quality vets released, just think of how many we are about to release. As much as JJ Watt excites me, this might be the year to be really disciplined with your available FA dollars. Guys like Vernon Butler, Quinton Jefferson & Mario Addison who all got close to $10M AAV last yr in FA might be lucky to get 60% of that value in FA this yr., IMO. BTW last year we handed out $14M in cash to Addison, $8.5M in cash to Jefferson & $8.37M in cash to Butler. Nearly $31M that's pretty gross, compared to the production we got out of them. Couple that with the $7M we blew by keeping Trent Murphy on the roster and you start to realize we floundered a ton of cap space on some really bad moves in yhr '20 offseason. Hoping this years FA period is much more fruitful.

I've heard a lot of smart people opine that it'll fall in the $187-$188M range. Helps us, but also helps the other 31 teams. I actually think there's leverage to get a good deal done with a cut FA now while the cap looks like it might be 180, rather than 188.

This Browns leak is 1 of 2 things: 1 - Watt's side trying to get other teams to up their offers 2 - Watt's side trying to get the Browns to up their offer I think its the former. The best way to create leverage for more money is the illusion of multiple teams bidding on your service.

Cut Vernon Butler ($6.8M saved) Cut Quinton Jefferson ($6.5M saved) Cut Lee Smith (2.25M saved) Cut John Brown ($8M saved) Pay Cut Mario Addison (save $2M) Pay Cut Matakevich (save $1.25M) Extend Diggs 2 yrs. (save $7M in '21) Convert Morse salary to bonus (save $3M) Total savings of nearly $30M With that savings: 1. Franchise Milano for $15M and look to trade him for a 3rd and 5th. I'd love to keep him, I'd hate to lose him for nothing, I think given the reduction in cap this might be the smartest compromise. 2. Re-sign Feliciano ($3M cap hit) 3. Re-sign D Williams ($7M cap hit) 4. Sign J.J Watt ($9.5M cap hit) 5. Sign Curtis Samuel ($6.5M cap hit)

Spotrac has his value estimated at $8.3M per yr. & given thr coming Cao cut I don't think he'll get that much. In a normal FA yr. maybe he would be able to command $8-9m on the open market, but I don't think it's a smart move to sign an avg. to maybe slightly above avg OG to that type of deal. If he's comfortable in Buffalo, wants to come back, and doesn't want to take on the risk of entering a FA market with a lot of uncertainty I think you're going to see a deal in the $5.5M-$7M range. I think it'll likely be stretched over 3 years so they can get a smaller cap # for this coming year. My guess: 3 years - $19M (up to $22M w/incentives) $6M Signing Bonus, $1M '21 base salary, '21 cap hit of $3M

I actually think Curtis Samuel will find healthy money in the FA market. By healthy, I'm talking $11-$12.5M per yr. If he'd sign a cheaper 1 yr. Prove it deal I do think the Bills would be interested, but given our cap situation I just don't think it'll be possible. I'll always remember the glowing reports of Curtis Samuel when the Bills practiced vs. the Panthers in training camp a few years back. Some in the Bills media were raving about how good he looked. Given his career with not so great QBing with a beat up Cam and then 1 yr. w/ Bridgewater, I've always thought his best is ahead.

I love Milano. The Bills defense is much better with him on the field, as evidenced by the data. That said I think his injuries and the times he's missed will be the reason the Bills let him walk. As a general philosophy I'm not sure it's ever wise to give a LB $14-15M. I'd rather invest that money into the offense, OL or pass catchers.......thats the formula to winning.

Not if we sign more FA's than we lose, like we foolishly did the year Gilmore signed with the Pats. Missed out on a 3rd round pick that year because we signed a bunch if backup, scrub FAs. Hopefully Beane is smart about it. Not if we sign more FA's than we lose, like we foolishly did the year Gilmore signed with the Pats. Missed out on a 3rd round pick that year because we signed a bunch if backup, scrub FAs. Hopefully Beane is smart about it.

After listening to Beane, my between the line thoughts were as follows: FA's 1- Jon Feliciano - They want him back and they'll probably be able to get him back because he's not a break the bank type of FA. 2- Matt Milano - I think they really want him back, but they know he's going to be looking for more than what they want to spend. Beane brought up his availability as a problem, and used the word "good" player on a couple of occasions......I think Beane was posturing a bit, they want him for $11.5-$12M a yr....he probably wants $14-15M. Can he get it on the open market? In a normal FA yr. I think he could, hut there won't be the same money out there this year. Thus one really seems like a 50/50 proposition, but I do believe the Bills want him back more than they are publicly willing to admit. Likely a 3rd round compensatory pick if he leaves. 3- Daryl Williams- Got the feeling the Bills won't be buying high on Williams. They git a great yr out of him, but Beane didn't sound like a guy that wanted to bet on Williams long term. I think they'd have him back on a team friendly deal, but I think there will be other teams willing to go where the Bills won't be. Possible 4th/5th compensatory pick in next yrs draft if he leaves. 4- Matt Barkley - Beane was very complimentary and thankful toward Barkley and his wife. Had the sound of a good bye to me. Pretty sure he won't receive an offer from the Bills unless it's vet min. & I don't think Barkley would play for that. Possible cuts: John Brown - I think hes gone Lee Smith - Gone V. Butler/Q. Jefferson/M. Addison - I think 1 of these guys is definitely cut, 2 is possible and it wouldn't shock me if all 3 are let go. Beane admitted that if they knew what the cap was going to be this coming yr. They wouldn't have signed all the DL they did. That to me is an admission that 1 or 2 of them will have to go. I'd say Vernon Butler is the most likely to be cut as his game is most similar to Stars (assuming he comes back, which maybe he wont). I would put Addison as the next most likely l, considering his age (34) and a very so so yr in '20 Mitch Morse - This one is tricky. Cutting him saves them only $2ish M in cap space, but doing so basically admits this was a big whiff of a signing. They've paid him nothing of $28M over the last 2 yrs., he's only due $7.5M this coming season. I think he sticks around for 1 more yr. Because the $2M cap savings isn't enough to justify cutting him.

If the Bills resign Matt Milano & Jon Feliciano, which I believe they will try their hardest to do.......I don't think there's going to be much money left over for anything, but some lower level FA signings. They really don't have the money to hand out to FA's. I do expect then to move on from the following players to save a decent chunk of change: -John Brown -Mitch Morse -Vernon Butler or Q. Jefferson (one's gotta go to make way for Stars return unless he retires, which wouldn't be a surprise) -Lee Smith & maybe -Mario Addison Might be better to save the $6.2M in cap room and get rid of a 34 yr old DE who had a very meh type of yr. BTW our FA swing last yr on DL (Addison, Butler & Jefferson) was kind of a big swing and miss. All those guys got pretty healthy multi ur. Deals, and they were not much better than replacement level players)

Bills most glaring needs to better compete with the Chiefs: 1 - weapon in the passing game 2 - Pass Rusher 3 - CB 4 - Cover LB (if Milano is not retained)

First time I came across a Brett Killian video was when he compared Winston and Mariota heading into the draft the year they were selected. It was a great breakdown, that was very well produced. I've enjoyed his breakdowns ever since.

His cap hit is $6.9M, his actual cash take for '21 is $3.5M Correct. Both Mahomes and Watson had their 4th and 5th yrs of their deals rolled into their newly signed extensions. Expect the same thing for Allen.

Allen's new contract is as follows: Floor: $39M yr. (Watson deal 4 yr. - $156M) Ceiling: $45M yr (Mahomes 10 yr. - $450M) I expect Allen's extension to be richer and longer than Watson's, but it won't exceed Mahomes money or term. Prediction: 6 yr. - $252M extension ($42M per) With 2 years left on his deal @ $3.5M in '21 and $25M in '22 (5th yr option). That would make the total value of Allen's new deal 8 yrs. - $280M ($35M/per) '21 - $12M (cash), $6M (cap hit) '22 - $23M, $16M '23 - $30M, $24M '24 - $42M, $42M '25 - $40M, $42M '26 - $43M, $48M '27 - $44M, $50M '28 - $46M, $52M

Right on. Schefter isn't "often" a shill for agents, though. He always is. Watson isn't getting traded. The dead cao #s the Texans have to take on, were they to trade him, are a non starter. Plus Watson has absolutely no leverage, he's signed for another 5 years. He's not going to threaten to sit out for 5 seasons is he? This is all media/agent/Watson driven. Let's not forget he just signed a 4 year extension like 6 months ago, let's not act like he's in some type of hostage situation in Houston. It was his choice to sign that extension, had he opted not to he actually would have some leverage right now.

The ringer is decent, I like Simmons, but its also super "woke, let's not offend anybody, or criticize any athlete we might be able to get on a podcast in the future". That Mallory they have on who is a Ravens fan is brutal.

No I like getting it @ the half, but they should tell Andre Roberts to keep his ass in the enzone for a touchback if the kickoff is beyond a yard deep in the enzone........especially if its kicked directionally to one side of the field. Those kickoff returns to the 15 yard line with the chance of an injury or holding penalty to back you up even further are not only infuriating, but they're unforced errors.

Bills - 38 Ravens - 22 Josh Allen has a day vs. the man pressure heavy defense of the Ravens. Josh has excelled all tear versus man defense & the Ravens run a lot of man. Allen has also been great vs. the blitz this yr. and the Ravens ate one of the most blitz heavy Ds in the league. I think our offense will be a problem for the Ravens defense. I also think Allen is going to do some major damage on the ground. With those have blitz man looks there is going to be a lot of turned heads downfield on defense fir the Ravens, which should provide for some big chunk runs for Allen.

What helps us with any Josh Allen extension is the fact that Mahomes signed a really team friendly deal. Yes its a ton of money but its a 10 year extension added onto the 2 yrs he had left at below market value. Also $45M a yr. resets thr market in 2020, but that'll be an absolute steal in 3-4 yrs when the next crop of Premier FA QBs are signing for $50-$55M. The NFL cap will continue to soar yr. over yr. once covid is finally in the rear view (hopefully), and that 10 year deal Mahomes signed will be an absolute steal. I'm hoping Allen's extension is closer to Mahomes (10 yrs.) than it is Watson's (4 yrs.). Watson got a way better deal because he'll be able to re-up @ the market rate 6 yrs. before Mahomes & by that pt. QBs will be making $55+M per yr.

You want maximum contrast. If it looks like snow, go red No snow go white I hate when teams let their opponents go white in night games.

There is no chance of the Ravens becoming a favorite @ Buffalo this week, no shot. Might it swing between Bills -1 to -3.5, yes, but no chance it ever tips to the Ravens side. This Bills team is way too good for that.

The same reason we predict the score of Bills games, or predict who they are going to take in the draft, or if the Bills will cover the spread, or who is going to win an election. Human beings like to guess and speculate. Sometimes it can be a little silly, but I kind of like predicting whos going to get what time slots. You can use your reasoning of why not just wait, for just about anything in life. I get it, but we wouldn't have a ton to talk about in this forum if we didn't play that game at least a little bit. The good thing is you're free to not click into posts and respond if its not your thing.

Looking at last yrs. Divisional weekend games both #1 seeds got the Saturday games. NFC #1 seed had the 4:35PM game, AFC #1 seed had the 8:15PM game. Both #2 seeds got the Sunday games. AFC #2 seed had the early 3:05PM game & NFC #2 had the 6:40PM game. Obviously mass appeal plays a large part in scheduling these games, but based on last yr. Id predict the following: Saturday: 4:35PM Rams @ Packers 8:15PM Browns/Ravens @ Chiefs Sunday: 3:05PM Ravens/Steelers @ Bills 6:40PM Buccaneers @ Saints I do think the NFL tends to give the #1 seeds the Saturday games which gives them the rest advantage going into the Championship Round. We should know for sure here in a few hours.

No doubt, Milano had a bad day. Watching him @ the stadium, it was pretty apparent that he was being picked on in the passing game. That one deep TD bust looked like he was actually a Tre White bust, but that aside Milano was consistently beat in the pass game. Tough day.