Nephilim17

The whole team and organization must be feeling relief right now. The single biggest person-related stressor is gone. As a Bills fan I now feel like I'm swimming in my own shark and gator-free lake by myself and I can pee freely and just enjoy the sun and the water... Hell, I could drop a deuce in the water and it's all cool.

People were talking about Ed Oliver like he was a bust and he came on strong and now people are saying he's outperformed his 4-year $68 million second contract.

I was recently leaning towards taking who's there at 28 but your post reminded me Josh's prime is finite and perhaps half over. That's a damn good argument to get him an elite receiver this draft and not take a bigger chance hoping Thomas or someone lower pans out. But here's the thing: EVERY MOVE HAS RISK. If we take a rookie, there's a risk he busts or is merely average. That risk appears to be lower if we take a top-3 guy. But it's not guaranteed. Even Harrison could be merely very good and not great and thus not worth the capital expended. If we sign/trade for a high-priced vet, there's a risk he doesn't perform as well or gets injured. And if he delivers, there's a risk he wants even more money and holds out. If a high-priced FA/traded player delivers, there is a risk associated with having less cap money to spend on other positions so we have to take a risk a lower-cost FA or a rookie will be high impact on the D line or at safety or wherever. You can argue that you diversify the risk by having multiple good players instead of one player you hope will be elite. There's no such thing as no risk but where do we want to mitigate that risk the most? I don't have the answer but you're right in that we need to set up Allen for the second half of his prime — and that entails working with risk and how to mitigate that element. I have to hope Beane makes the right call here.

This sounds like a haul for the Bills. You sure a 2025 2nd will get us to move up 8 in the first, 9 in the 2nd, and a third rounder?

Cook is a good pass-catching back but he had 445 receiving yards in 2023. I will give you 2 to 1 odds up to $100 on your end (I'll pay $200) that if we draft a rookie and that rookie plays at least 14 games (meaning, not injured more than 3 games) that the rookie passes Cook. Our drafted WR will likely get 600 to 800 yards. If you think I'm high, let's have a bet. I'll do $10, whatever you like up to $100 on your end.

That might be the key to it. I think it could be a good idea but it means not taking someone early for the D line. I think that could be a priority. Whatever happens, should be interesting...

Interesting idea. However, who do you take off the field to play Legette and Worthy? Kincaid stays. Cook will be on most of the time. Do you sit Samuel (3 years, $24 million with $15 million guaranteed) and use him as depth? Or do you not play Shakir who had a good year in the slot last year? My thinking is to sit Shakir. Some might think that's a waste of young drafted talent. Others might point to his historically short arms and say his ceiling is limited anyway. What say you?

58 and 60 are almost a wash. So this trade is about trading down 13 spots from 28 to 41 for the extra 88 pick. If there's a guy you really like at 28, don't risk it; pull the trigger. If there's no one you're excited about, do it. But I imagine Legette and maybe a couple other guys might be there and it's not worth it.

I don't think "worse" receivers is a good plan but not having an elite number one but having three very good weapons helps diversify the attack, keeps Josh from trying to force it to someone, and that's a more sustainable model. If an elite guy wants top dollar or becomes a locker room issue or distraction, he's likely going to get it or force a move, and perhaps a trade without fair compensation for the seller. And he's harder to replace. If one of three good to very good players wants an unreasonable or untenable raise, trade him and it's easier to replace him as there are more good/very good guys available than elite ones, of course. This isn't a mandate to get "worse," just an acceptance that not having a top-3 receiver can still mean we've got a strong and sustainable WR room.

Not worried. We may have a top-5 tight end at some point in the season. Samuels and Shakir are decent in their roles. We have a Cook who will be better catching this year, I'm calling it (productive college career backs this up) and Knox. Draft a traits guy in the first or second and we'll be ok.

Sometimes people just find ways to make themselves look bigger.

Marino's latest podcast offers compelling reasons to not freak out if the Bills take a higher-graded D prospect in the first and then take a WR in the 2nd. He points to Green Bay and other examples of good WR rooms and players that didn't involve a first rounder. Sorry, if already posted in this thread but here it is (again) and it's a good listen:

I don't do Twitter much... So Steph "Liked" that comment?

I'd love to have a couple beers with Fitz. Steph, well, my first instinct is no way, but upon further thought, it could be very, very interesting hearing him spout off. But Fitz is the best guy.

The good news is we will have to wait at least three more years till whatever WR we draft has an oversized ego and follows in Steph's path! Cherish the next 1000 days or so!

Lately, I've been guessing that we're targeting Thomas with a small trade-up, or Mitchell at 28, or very close to it. But interesting that Joe Marino prefers Legette to Thomas. So does @GunnerBill So many of us may not have our expectations fulfilled. The cover 1 podcast with Marino made the point that the media mock drafts and thus fan rankings are often, way, way off from the boards teams have.

Elite regular season player. Perhaps he's on a slow decline, perhaps he still has one more elite regular season (or first season half ) in him. However with 65 yards total in last 3 playoff games, I don't think he's a money post-season player. That's what the Bills need: a player in the playoffs who will be bracketed and who will still get 80, 100, 120 yards in a game, and make clutch grabs in the 4th quarter, the last 2 minutes, and OT if we go there.

Yes, I am serious. Oliver had 9.5 sacks and the sixth-best pressure rate (13.3%) at his position, per Next Gen Stats (minimum 300 pass rushes). Why is idea that Ed is an impact player so funny to you?

No, it's not. (And I made this point days ago.) We received a SINGLE pick. So Diggs and picks were traded for a PICK. Singular. One pick. That's it. Many picks were involved but Diggs and other capital was traded FOR a single pick.

Andre Reed took forever to get in and he had over 13,000 yards, 87 TDs, and made 4 Super Bowls. Right now DIggs has: almost 10,000 yards and 67 TDs and 0 SB appearances. Long way to go. I'd bet he's out of the league after 3 more seasons with declining stats due to age. He'll probably end up around 12,000 yards and 80 TDs. WIthout the the SB's that wouldn't be enough. But if he can hang on and play till his mid 30s, who knows.

Yes, very interesting indeed.

I wouldn't argue but a lot of mocks now have him going much higher. We'll see...

Oliver can be.

As a person, I liked Morse a lot. Hyde was cool too. As players, I think their careers are on the downside (Poyer, Diggs, Morse) or over (Hyde).

It's really, really disingenuous of you to not list Kincaid there. You don't like Beane, I get it. I don't love him but I'd give him a B. Good but not great so far. But for you to leave out Kincaid in the list of offensive weapons really says a lot.