Einstein

We are alike in many ways. It’s likely why we butt heads sometimes 😉.

Exactly right. You should learn about predictive modeling. You don’t have to guess or use a hunch. We have maths to give us the answer on what is predictive. The 1.6% is predictive. At a 95% confidence interval.

Not when i’m correct.

These sponsorship deals exist at the current stadium as well, not to mention every stadium in existence. No, this does not mean the team wants to lose 25% of its season ticket base.

Yes, I agree, there is definitely someone in this thread doing this…

I think you misunderstood. What the formula does is tell you what sample size you need for the sample to be predictive. That's the entire point. We need at least 203 account holders to be offered PSL's at a 90% confidence level, to have the sample be predictive. The Bills have shown over 400. This is just absurd. "Hear me out boss. Let's spend millions of dollars to hire salespeople who sell people on $40k PSL's, all day every day, and get this... we are going to WANT lots of people to say NO and waste our time/money". They want 100% sales. Unless you have information that they are breaking disparate impact by selling the same seats for more money to corporate buyers (which they aren't). They likely dont. Which is why they are selling clubs first. They are using it as a benchmark.

They pass 95% confidence level. How does that not tell us anything?

"Failure" isnt the right way of looking at it. It's just the reality of the numbers. Neither good nor bad. The 60k isnt used in the equation at all so doesnt mattter. I just cut the end of my sentence off. It was meant to say 60,000 tickets at 2.5 ticket per account holder

Right. So let's figure out how many the Bills need to attempt to sell to before we have a predictive value. Meaning, how many people before we know the % of sales is a good predictor of future outcomes. - Let's say we want a confidence level of 90% and a Z-score of 1.65 (technically 1.645). - Let's assume 60,000 season tickets at 2.5 tickets per account holder. - A 5% margin of error. - We know 75% of those shown the new ticket pricing have agreed to buy, so we have p = 0.75 and q= 1 − p (so 0.25) So we have: The answer is 203. With a 90% confidence level and a 5% margin of error, the Bills need to offer PSL's to at least 203 account holders. We know they have presented to 1.6% of account holders. If each account holder averages 2.5 tickets, that means they have presented to 403 account holders. Which is significantly more than they need to see predictive value. in other words, the 75% sale figure is predictive. .

That's not the right maths... It's 1.6% of account holders. NOT seats.

You're conflating the current stadium with the new stadium. There is no debate that the new stadium has high demand. We are talking about the new stadium. Where 1 in 4 customers are giving their tickets up. As stated earlier, I expect a similar outcome with lower priced tickets, due to price elasticity. I believe the Bills expect it as well. They will model prices in the lower seats to percentage wise match club seats to obtain at least 75% buy in. We do know that losing 1 in 4 customers is a very, very bad thing. If John Doe thought he would be poked in the eye, and then did get poked in the eye, it does not make the eye poke a good thing. It only means he accurately forecasted his eye poke.

Secondary market demand. In behavioral economics we have something known as reference dependence which suggests that buyers evaluate their choices relative to a specific reference point. What this means for primary and secondary market demand is that when purchasing resale tickets the reference point of the buyer shifts to factors such as impulsiveness and willingness to pay more for attending only one game. "But honey, its the ONE game I go to all year". This shift in reference points can lead to higher prices in the secondary market, which does not correlate with the demand or pricing in the primary market. Eg: John Doe only goes to 1 game per year and therefore purchases resale has no affect on season ticket demand. But he does an affect on resale ticket demand. You point out a big problem for the Bills and something they have always struggled with. The fan base traveling well is part of the reason why the Bills struggle to charge peak NFL rates. Many northern Bills fans would rather spend $2,500 on flying to Miami, spending a week on the beach, and then watching the Bills kick the Dolphins butt, rather than spend that same allotment of coin on a season package that can not be enjoyed by the portion of the family that is not into sports. What i'm really interested to see is how many people end up defaulting on their PSL.

The Bills decided a couple years ago to get into bed with official resellers. They then shut down the ticket office that sells group rates.

Just FYI for all - Resale value does not indicate what fans will pay for seasons or PSL’s. Resale tickets prices are based off very different market economics. These are fans that often only go to 1 or 2 games per year - therefore they justify significantly higher prices because they don’t need to pay for the remaining 6 or 7 games.

Yes, and the Bills are nearly 25 basis points lower than their own numbers from the past few years. Yes, but this is typically offset due to the fact that club ticket holders are more often than not economically advantaged in comparison to fans in other section. Ie: Fans earning $130k per year paying $10k per year in seasons is equivalent to fans earning $50k per year paying close to $4k per year for seasons. This would be highly unusual and very uncharacteristic of everything we know about price sensitivity and elasticity of demand. Which is to say that lower income fans that often make up the less pricier areas of the stadium are generally more price-sensitive, meaning their demand for tickets is more elastic. This elasticity is due to their inability (and sometimes unwillingness) to purchase tickets with even a small increase in price, as the cost represents a larger portion of their discretionary spending. This is exactly why the Bills are selling the club tickets first. They are obtaining a benchmark for sales with fans who have higher discretionary income and are likely adjusting their pricing for fans in other sections of the stadium based off of this data. When prices increase across the board, the demand among these fans might drop more sharply than among higher-income fans, who are less sensitive to price changes. The way most businesses get around this is by increasing the amount of available quantity at lower prices, thereby offsetting any reduced demand (on a percentage basis). What is interesting about the Bills situation is that they have reduced quantity available for lower priced seats, as the club seats now take up a much larger portion of the stadium AND they already reduced the stadium by close to 10k seats. Which again, is exactly why they doing clubs first. They’re going to use clubs as a benchmark to adjust the less pricier areas.

Keep in mind, according to the Bills, 1 in 4 aren't renewing. That's pretty bad for most businesses to lose a quarter of your customers. And if I had to guess, those numbers are a bit fudged. They likely include those who say they will renew, but at a lower package. Meaning, they have to be called back in in a few months. Will they *actually* renew at that lower package? hmm, maybe not. The real number, with non-fudged numbers, could be 1 in 3 fans not renewing for all we know. Even using the Bills numbers, they are down over 20 basis points from last year in renewals.

Impressive seniority. His Bills fan career will now span 3 home stadiums..

You really should get that reading comprehension problem checked out. Im not upset or angry about any of this. Nor have I ever claimed to be. I do think it’s incredibly stupid and nonsensical the way they are going about this. But i’m not upset about it. I just laugh at their stupidity. 1) Never trust non-regulated numbers that come directly from the benefiting party. 2) 75% is successful? Yikes. I wish my board thought losing 1 out of every 4 customers is successful. We would be smashing KPI records with those low standards.

This circles back to missteps in PR strategy by the Bills management regarding the new stadium. The team's decision to keep the stadium's drawings, virtual reality walkthroughs, and detailed plans under wraps, opting instead for presenting them through timeshare-like meetings in a nondescript location in Williamsville, far from the stadium, effectively deflated any excitement that could have been generated. A better approach would have harnessed the initial enthusiasm with a community-focused event designed to amplify stadium anticipation. For instance, a strategic move could have involved: 1) Hosting a grand unveiling event open to the media, season ticket holders, and fans, ideally timed around the NFL draft. This would allow fans to experience the draft in a unique way, intertwined with the excitement of the stadium reveal. Featuring appearances by Bills legends from various eras, such as Josh Allen, Jim Kelly, Fred Jackson, and Kyle Williams, alongside performances by bands, offering 50/50raffles, and giveaways, etc, to enrich the experience. 2) Broadcast the event both online and in-person to display the stadium’s architecture, amenities, and technological features through detailed presentations, testimonials from the designers, endorsements by players, and exclusive behind-the-scenes content. 3) Gifting attendees miniature replicas of the stadium upon departure, akin to the distribution of bobbleheads. This would leave a lasting, tangible memory of the event. 4) I would have avoided any discussion of pricing at the event to focus purely on building excitement and allowing guests to marvel at the stadium’s offerings without the immediate concern of cost. Such an event would far surpass the current approach of individual appointments in a locale far removed from the stadium. This concept would undoubtedly generate buzz—in workplaces, online, and during family gatherings like Easter, which would have laid the groundwork for widespread anticipation. After allowing the excitement to reach its peak over a few weeks, the team could then introduce the pricing details. And yes, this idea of mine is completely off the cuff and likely has a few holes. That's how all good ideas start. You come up with something then you refine it, fix it, and make it great. But as it stands, the current strategy has arguably been the least effective approach possible.

This is the #1 mistake the Bills have made. Treating this like a timeshare sale, rather than simply releasing the pricing for the entire stadium, is amateur hour.

I dont see it as 'good' or 'bad'. Just is what it is. Just like I classify most rocks as 'hard'.

I mean... people typically are good to their own people. So it doesn't surprise me that a retreat of billionaires and close-to-billionaires results in mostly good behavior with each other. Put them in a retreat with plumbers, bricklayers and homeless, then let me know how they act.

A bunch of PSE employees spoke out a few years back. Let me see if I can find the article again. Edit: Found it. It’s a couple years old so my recollection isnt perfect, but here it is:

Yeah that was an odd post by Royale. He clearly does not know many wealthy people. The billionaire Pegula’s even implied to PSE employees making likely $60k per year that they would be fired (to save money) before the Pegula’s would let their family life (vacations, etc) be hampered.

This is exactly why fans get poked in the eye regardless of whether they purchase a PSL or not.