harryS

the Chiefs have gotten much better against 2 high safety as the season has progressed (mostly because Mahomes has become more patient and stopped turning it over). but conservative zone is still the best way to play them. you'll give up 30 points, yes, but if you go aggressive against that speed, you're going to give up 50. play conservative and give Josh a chance to outduel Mahomes. KC is going to rape our defense. It's up to our offense to rape their defense just a bit worse.

yeah, until Josh is about 37 or so. we won't be great every year, as some seasons will be ruined by injuries or otherwise bad luck since it's the NFL, but most years we'll be contenders.

you underestimate groupies. he's probably still receiving sex massages.

Many teams ran all over us last season, too (including the Chiefs in the regular season game), so I don't know if the changes are that dramatic. I just think generally we like light boxes and more coverage so opposing teams will sometimes have success running, and that was true before this season. Also, the defensive ends have been whipping boys for the fanbase all season, so they're not going to inspire confidence now as the Mahomes solution. And while I like our DTs, the Chiefs have a very strong interior of the OL. "We're built to beat the Chiefs" has become a battle cry that I'm not sure is deserved (especially with Tre White out), other than we have a QB that might win a shootout against them.

I think the Bills o-line will continue their stellar play, Josh will have time, and we'll score 30+. BUT, unlike you, I'd still have it as 50/50 because unfortunately I think the Chiefs will be the first team to really expose our depleted cornerback situation. We have to win a shootout. I like our chances, but it's gonna be close. You're on the right track as there is a racial element. It's more that he's protecting his boy Mahomes, and he doesn't want to see any young white QB get more praise than Mahomes.

Bills 34-31. I piss and shart my pants but end the game with a stinky smile.

c'mon Bengals

C'mon the offensive line and running game are clearly better now. That said, I completely disagree with the thread starter that the result will be the same. Ain't no way in hell we blow out the Chiefs again. We need to win this game 34-31 or so. And let's hope the Bengals knock off the Titans, too. My heart can't handle back to back nailbiters. I want to host the AFCCG

it's mostly 2s or 2.5s across the board. a lot of respect for the Bills

revenge is for next year when we go back-to-back. this year, i just want the trophy

it takes both for a beatdown that epic. we're clearly a better team since halftime of TB / Bates insertion, and new england clearly has struggled in recent weeks.

way overthinking this if you believe playing Cincy at home is more difficult than KC on the road

i'd rather just have the easier path. you know who wins smack talk wars? fans of teams who win the super bowl

very different situations. a whole offseason to cook up surprises vs season-long film on a team. plus teams in early season form vs late season form. i personally can't even muster up the energy to root for Pittsburgh, i find them winning so unlikely. hopefully this is the jinx that is needed for them to win.

Josh has 15 years or so left in his career, and it's obviously impossible that Daboll will be here for another 15, which means it's going to happen sooner or later. I'd like to keep him of course but no matter what, McDermott will have to hire a good OC eventually to replace him.

It's projected to be very cold but is it projected to be windy? I'm seeing on weather.com that wind is expected to be 9mph. While the cold is far from ideal, wind is worse than cold for the passing game. We'll be able to pass if the stadium and lake effects don't kick that 9mph up.

Sharp involvement with the Pats is small but present, imo. The Big 3 market leaders of Pinnacle, Bookmaker/CRIS, and Circa all started at 4.5 and are at 4 now. (This, despite the public backing the Bills, as discussed). But the team the sharps are really hammering are the Raiders so far, then the Eagles.

The Raiders, Eagles, and Patriots. They will go 2-1, losing to the Bills.

Quite simply, it's because your method is not a reliable way to predict line movement. In fact, it will usually predict opposite of what is right. Would you be willing to share what odds screen you are looking at? For example, here's what I'm seeing: You'll notice that the bigger money is all on the Bengals, Bills, and Bucs, and yet in all three cases, the line has moved towards the Raiders, Pats, and Eagles. Why would that be? Well, the following quote explains where you're going wrong: You say that sarcastically but it's the actual truth! Would it be so surprising to believe that most of the big-money bettors are whales dropping $10,000+ on the favorites alongside regular Joe Sixpack and his $50 bets? The flaw in your analysis is that you believe most big-money bettors are sharps. They're not, and that's why the lines are moving backwards from where you would predict them to move. The sharps are on the dogs, as they tend to be.

which one? notice that I'm specific in my posts, e.g. Draft King has it as 3.5 right now. The line was widely 4.5 yesterday and has moved down to 4. The line HAS moved, opposite of the direction you predicted. :-) Sometimes explanation sounds like condescension, and like I said, maybe we should just stick to talking football. But if you or others are going to talk point spread, at least give good information. For example, why would you think the 53% vs 58% you mentioned would move the line? That difference isn't very large, but most importantly, you seem to assume that it has to be sharp action accounting for the difference. All it takes is one rich whale (for example, someone like Floyd Weather) to place a big bet and skew those numbers, especially since the difference is so small, and especially since the limits are low early in the week. Big bettors do NOT have to be sharp. Very often they are whales, especially in high-profile games like NFL playoff games.

Oh look, the point spread has actually moved DOWN to 4 across the board now, including a 3.5 at sharp shop Heritage. So, looks like all the Bills fans in this thread were wrong about what direction the line would move. I mean, who cares? We should just stick to talking about football, but IF people are going to chime in about point spreads and market movement, please know what you're talking about when you do. Thanks! And to be clear, I think our Bills win comfortably and I will have a bet on Bills -3.5, but that is irrelevant to how the point spread will move in this game.

where? i'm seeing 4.5 across the board. at the very least, all the major most popular books are at 4.5

he's going to be immediately picked up by another team as head coach

numbers do lie, and this is why you trust the eye test over nerdy stats. i like this team, it's very good, but it's not the best bills team ever.

like I said, you don't have a good feel for this. the first time the Pats played at Buffalo, the closing line was 3 and you could get 2.5 at high-handle places like Cris and Circa. that means the line has already been adjusted off the very key number of 3 and through the key number of 4. there's no way this thing is moving higher. to be clear, I think the Bills will win and cover, but my own personal opinion has nothing to do with how the market will move.