Ecmic82

I do believe this is the only scenario in which the Bills win out but miss the playoffs. a shorthand for the Bills to go 10-7 and still make the playoffs is: Denver and Pittsburgh lose 1 more game, and 2 of Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, and Jacksonville lose 2 more games. (other scenarios exist, including paths where the Browns lose 3 games, but are somewhat less probable 😉) if you’d like to mitigate the emotional toll of the worst-case scenario, you can get north of 1000-1 odds on the 13 leg parlay.

The main takeaway was their effectiveness in the red zone. They’ve been pretty bad all year, and I’d guess it’s one of the few common threads that tie together all their losses. And I don’t think it’s simply a matter of variance that they had a good game in the red zone. They’ve obviously shifted philosophy to incorporate the run more (overall, but also in the red zone) and while sometimes not extremely effective from a pure “yardage-on-a-particular-play” perspective, I do have hope that their successes are at least partially due to the finally-real THREAT of a run in the most congested part of the field, which might open up their uncreative red zone passing game.

He’s had three weeks to reincorporate as a practice participant after eleven months of what I’m sure was often a physically and mentally deleterious process. Not a long time, perhaps especially because he’s mentally reaching for the extremely high bar of performance expectation that he’s cleared throughout his career. I have zero concern that there’s any ill intent for not playing. So I’m not concerned that he isn’t playing.

Not a popular opinion, but I agree. The first thing you HAVE to do in that situation is attempt to draw an Offside. defense is in a situation that a bite is more likely. Take the delay of game penalty if you have to. Half the distance to the goal from the two inch line. Who cares. safety at ~20 seconds worst case. F**k it, I’d put Allen in shotgun and, depending on his read of defense, give him an option of a draw or scramble-right-and-eventually-bomb out of bounds. Nothing in-play. it’s Monday Morning quarterbacking, I don’t care. Sneak is conventional wisdom and not a “bad” call, but with this specific line and this quarterback in this specific situation, maybe not the best strategy in my opinion. Fumbled handoff is the only reasonably possible catastrophic play within the realm of possible calls-and-outcomes there.

There’s no way this team should be bottom half of the league in red zone efficiency, and play-calling needs to be better there. The Bills were effective running the ball against the Chiefs, and I’m not sure there’s a good reason why you throw the ball three straight plays from the Chiefs’ three yard line, on a drive you dominated by running the ball. This is my only concern from the game, because it’s a recurring one.

The defining metric of “what the coach would achieve with an average roster” necessarily precludes what the coach has IMPACTED on his actual rosters. For example, I’d guess PFF accounts for each Bills’ defensive player’s performance in their algorithm, but don’t account for the Bills’ coaching staff’s impact on each defensive player’s performance (because, how the hell could that be quantified?). And, then, what the f*ck is the point? Ad revenue? Yeah, for ad revenue.

The Titans taking a CB at 34 is more evidence that the Bills might’ve traded up in order to prevent the Titans from stealing Elam away.

I think the Titans could’ve been the third team vying for one of the two cornerbacks. Would explain the Chiefs move, and the Titans’ subsequent trade back following the Bills pick. The Titans have two 4th round picks, neither better than the Bills though.

Yeah I’ll echo that hitting a guy in stride who has his man beat by 20 yards is probably not the best situational throw. Better to toss it up and let the receiver make an easy catch. I think what happened to Diggs there is it was an abnormal play for him - how often do you get to camp under a bomb with no defenders near? - so when he caught it he had no idea where the defense was. His reaction actually looked like a preparation to get hit or to evaded a defender. It ended up looking odd because he eventually realized no one was actually near him.

Hopefully a “convert” dynamic within the locker room will have a positive impact on vax hesitancy.

I’d also guess the trend line in favor of COVID vaccination is positive, as has been the case for every single other vaccine in modern history. Skepticism and fear will always predate acceptance and widespread use. Other posters reading “rightness” of position at this point in time is completely ahistorical.

Teams are something like 34% on 3rd and more-than-10 against the Bills. Take out the Jets and Broncos, and teams are over 40% on 3rd and more-than-10 against Buffalo. that seems... not good. That’s league average across all third downs.

Has there been any word from the league as to why they didn’t think this was a review-worthy play until after the Bills were forced to finesse protocol and allow the ref crew time to get their heads out of their asses?

You can’t remember it because it was a play in which the opposing team literally wasn’t trying to score: Kyler Murray’s kneel-down. take that “attempt” out of the equation, and the Bills’ opponents are 11 for 12 on two-point conversions the last two years. Not good.

You’re right, I think, but you’re in the wrong timeline right.

Bro it’s a fine thread.

What could be reasonably expected from Wilson + Metcalf + the rest of the Bills’ offense? Odds-on the highest-scoring offense in NFL history? Wouldn’t do the trade, because my view is there are more satisfying aspects of sport than a be-all, end-all, win-at-any-cost mentality (and Allen emphatically checks those boxes as a player worth rooting for) but Wilson and Metcalf would make the Bills Super Bowl favorites *this* year and I’m willing to argue that where ever, whenever.

"Alright guys you've got two options. You can quarantine and fight the Bills next week, or you can fight COVID. What'll it be?" "Where's the nearest practice field, coach?"

You know you're good when teams are getting COVID to duck playing you 🤷‍♂️

I was joking. It’s probably the most sure sign that a defender knows he did something he wasn’t supposed to.

Bomani has said, as recently as a day ago, that if money weren’t an issue he’d (still) be a music critic. Money determines what he says. Not sincerity. And Business is good.

I originally thought it was a bad call because the defender threw his hands up to say “I didn’t do anything” before the play was over and before a flag was thrown, and that’s usually a good sign of a clear conscience 🙄 But watching a slow motion replay, it’s clear that not only does the defender initiate contact, but the hold also directs Davis off his initial inside cut and away from the point where he would’ve otherwise been - which is where the ball was thrown.

“One weird trick to do a money-run on Vegas.”

If they were to choose the stick-with-Darnold route then it’d pretty much signal they’ll be paying him a ton of money, and I don’t think he’s done anything so far to show he’s worth $25+ million.

Yes. Would much rather miss a 2 point conversion and be down 9 with 8 minutes left than miss a two point conversion and be down 2 with 10 seconds left. Kind of along the same lines, when you’re down by a touchdown and a field goal (ie. between 9 and 11 points) with time running out to a degree that you KNOW that if you score you’ll have to attempt an onside kick, I’d almost always kick the field goal immediately when you get into safe field goal range, and then go for the touchdown if you recover the onside kick. I think it’s easily the best strategy in that situation. But you usually see the trailing team waste time trying to get into the end zone, end up having to kick the field goal anyway, and have no time left for another possession.