Billl

This is the correct answer. The Mahomes contract was a team friendly deal. Josh could sign that exact contract a year later, and it would be a good deal for both sides.

I think it’ll be slightly longer and way more backloaded, but you’ve got a pretty good jumping off point.

Henry has had 850 touches the last two seasons. He is due for a breakdown, and their line isn’t what it was. Chiefs, Browns, Bills, or Ravens in the Super Bowl. I don’t see anyone else with much of a chance barring some blockbuster trade sending Rodgers, Watson, or Wilson to the Colts, Titans, Broncos, or Dolphins.

Is there a thread from when he was originally acquired via the trade? I can’t find one, but it would be an interesting read.

Because of a 2 year old article from before Daboll simplified the offense? Nah

Mahomes crapped himself to the tune of 300 yards, 3 TDs, and no turnovers for a 117 QB rating against the Patriots. Now I’ll grant you that he was confused by the NE defense in the first half, but he adjusted and put up 31 points in the second half. It’s hard to beat a team by 3 TDs when that team scores 37 points. Allen couldn’t get anything going at all until mop up time after it was 38-15 in the 4th quarter. Buffalo didn’t make any offensive adjustments because there weren’t any built into the offense. I remember being on the other end of that during the Marty Schottenheimer days. The KC offense was incredibly basic, and come playoff time, Denver was literally calling out our audibles pre-snap and pointing to where the ball was going before we even snapped the ball. Had our offense been more innovative, we could have taken advantage of their aggressiveness with option routes and such, but Elvis Grbac wasn’t capable of running a complex offense, and Paul Hackett wasn’t exactly Bill Walsh. Daboll runs a system based on a complex offense, but he’s simplified it substantially. You don’t see a lot of option routes. There aren’t a dozen different ways he disguises screen passes. He does mix up the formations a decent amount, but there aren’t a ton of shifts that confuse the defense. It’s a very vanilla version of what Brady was running in NE. It still works well because Josh has physical gifts that Brady doesn’t have, but when it’s not working, it’s not like you can just make a bunch of halftime adjustments the way Payton and Brees could or Reid and Mahomes can. I think you’ll see that develop a bit as Josh continues to learn the position. He’s still growing as a QB, and right now he still looks like an athlete playing QB at times. As the game continues to slow down for him, I think he’ll look more like a QB who happens to also be a gifted athlete. If that happens, he’s going to wear a gold jacket some day.

This board is overlooking one of the (IMO) most important factors in that game. Kansas City’s defense knew exactly what was coming, and Josh had no idea how to stop it. Every time he audibled, Anthony Hitchens would reset the defense and essentially point out the play. Buffalo’s offense is pretty simple. I don’t know if that’s a Daboll thing or if he’s simplified it for Josh (more likely) but Spagnuolo seemingly had the perfect defense called every time, and Hitchens had the perfect counter to every adjustment the Bills made. I don’t think it’s a hot take to say that Josh plays better when he doesn’t overthink things and just plays. My suspicion is that Daboll is well aware of this and decided to tailor the offense to Allen’s style. It was effective, but simplified offenses can be predictable. I think what we saw in the AFCCG was that predictably catching up to them. I would expect to see a few new wrinkles added this season, and it will be up to Josh to keep up.

Signing players who are broken physically and/or mentally at the two most important positions isn't generally a recipe for success.

He was really healthy until he turned 30 and has had major injury issues each season since then. I wish him well, but this seems like a lot of money for a 31 year old LT playing on 1 leg. Someone needs to tell Chris Ballard it’s not 2018.

If you’re choosing from a pool of sexy names, you’re probably not having much on field success. When you’re drafting at the end of the round, the potential day 1 starters are generally limited to less impactful positions like RB, G, LB, etc. I don’t agree with all of Beane’s decisions, but I understand them.

The team doesn’t really need immediate starters. I think it was a great draft that will pay off in the short term with rotational value and depth in the short term and starters in the long term. I’m stunned to see so many people down on this class.

It absolutely was. The Chiefs had already scored 3 straight TDs, and the only success Buffalo had during the first half was when Hill dropped a 30 yard pass and then Hardman fumbled a punt on his own goal line. The Bills had done absolutely nothing to slow down Kansas City, and their only chance was some incredible halftime adjustment which obviously didn’t happen. The Chiefs kept right on scoring six straight times (5 TDs) going on a 38-6 run that put the game away. It was clear at that point that Mahomes was comfortable executing the game plan, and that was that.

What difference does that make? Are you building a team to beat Patrick Mahomes or Chad Henne? I don’t know who is better between the Bills and Browns, but I do feel strongly that the Browns are better equipped to beat the Chiefs. They’ve got a pass rush that is capable of taking over games and enough offensive weapons to put a lot of points on the board. The Bills can score, but they did nothing to slow down the Chiefs offense. After the first play of the second half when Romo was talking about how the Bills will adjust and then Hill took a little hitch for about 30 yards, it was just a formality.

He’s correct. Every player you listed is a JAG, and Watkins was always hurt. The only one I’d like to have back is Breeland, and there’s a pretty good chance he does. There’s a reason Kpass signed for barely over the league minimum and the others haven’t been picked up. The entirety of their value was their cheap price tags.

Still better than when they took a kicker in the first.

Thank God that was Sanchez throwing it or Timmy could have been hurt.

Dude was a 9 time all-pro. He’s in the conversation for best offensive lineman ever. I used to see him at my gym walking the track. He shuffled around like Ozzy Osborne and looked about as athletic, but my God could he whup asses for 5 second spurts.

Oweh is an interesting test case. If you think sacks are what matter most, his 2020 season was a huge red flag. If you believe that sacks are a numbers game and that what really matters is pressures, he’s your guy. I lean towards the latter of the two. He showed in 2019 that he can sack the QB. Last year he had a TON of pressures, but he didn’t cash in any of them with sacks. I’m willing to chalk most of that up to being a fluke associated with a small sample size, but I can understand why some people want nothing to do with him. I actually think he’s the perfect player to take at 30 because of his upside. All prospects have warts when you get towards the end of the first round. Oweh is the kind of guy you could look back on in a few years and say “thank God he didn’t get any sacks during the shortened season or he’d have gone top 10 and we’d never have had a chance at him.

Well there aren’t 10 QBs worthy of top 10 picks in a draft, so most teams picking there are drafting some other position. Presumably a terrible team slotted in the top 10 that isn’t targeting a QB has more holes to fill than a good team that might be a player or 2 away from competing for a Super Bowl. I’d argue that the Bills don’t need 7 players ranging from late first round to late 7th round in value nearly as much as they need a superstar who can make a difference. Given what you’ve said above, the good teams are better equipped to absorb the risk that comes with missing on a high pick whereas the poor teams can’t afford to play the lottery. They still need groceries. Bad teams with solid QBs should be looking to add as many good players as possible to become competitive whereas good teams should be looking for one or two players who can be plugged in to put them over the top. The Bills would be better off with Chase Young than their entire 2020 and 2021 draft classes. They could possibly be the defending champs. Guys like Epenesa and Moss are roster filler compared to the Bosas, Watts, etc.

That’s a solid move.

So nobody should ever draft a player top 10 that isn’t a QB? That makes no sense. Drafting a player at your slot in the top 10 is the same price as trading up for a player in the top 10. Trades are roughly equal in terms of draft capital value. It’s like saying $100 is a reasonable price for something if you have a $100 bill, but paying with a $50, 2 $20s, and a $10 is too expensive.

Not likely. Joe’s the guy who knocked up Willie Roaf’s wife causing Roaf to leave town. Roaf might be the best Saints player of all time pre-Brees.

That’s the formula for being forever a bridesmaid, never a bride. Teams are aggressive in today’s NFL. Hoping the Chiefs get knocked off by the Browns isn’t a strategy. This is a great team that currently has some fatal flaws. If there’s a chance to fix them, no price is too high. You can’t win multiple championships until you win one. Get the first one when you can and then figure out the rest when that time comes. The Rams are a perfect example of a team that shot their shot and came up short. Three years later, they’re among the favorites. It didn’t set them back a decade. They took their medicine for a couple years and rebuilt.

I don’t know if there’s an impact pass rusher in this draft, but if Beane is convinced there is, there’s no price too high IMO. You will not beat the Chiefs if you can’t get to Mahomes without blitzing. Right now, the Bills simply cannot do that. I’ve read countless “what if” posts about the AFCCG saying Frazier called a bad game and that McD should have been more aggressive on 4th downs, etc. etc. etc. None of that made a difference. The Chiefs game out of the gate tripping on their *****. They dropped passes, fumbled a punt, and spotted Buffalo a 9-0 lead before getting their act together and going on a 38-6 run. Mahomes couldn’t have looked more calm in the pocket, and no amount of coaching adjustments was changing the fact that the Bills simply don’t have a Bosa or a Donald who can single handedly disrupt an offense. Reid could have named his score, and the Kansas City line appears to be significantly better now than it was then. Buffalo needs that game wrecker to compete. Otherwise, they have to hope someone else knocks off KC for them. Cleveland is the AFC team best built to do that due to their ability to get to the QB, IMO.

I agree for the most part. Having someone like CEH works when the rest of your offense is clicking. When the Bills played the Chiefs in the regular season, he was unstoppable even though Buffalo’s game plan was very similar to Tampa’s in the Super Bowl. That’s because KC’s O-line could handle Buffalo’s front 4 when they dropped 7 in coverage. Tampa was a different story altogether. The Chiefs line was decimated by injuries, and Tampa’s front 4 was eating them alive even when dropping 7. Kansas City would have been much better off with another lineman (which they drafted but who sat out due to COVID) or another weapon at WR like Claypool. Teams need a RB who has a certain level of ability, but the price difference between a good one and a great one isn’t worth spending a ton of assets on. Veach/Reid probably got greedy taking a 1st round RB. I think McBeane went for RBs in the right spot in the draft. I just think they made bad picks.