Billl

WTF? Lamar isn’t under contract with the Ravens.

The same Steve Young who had 11 career TDs and 21 INTs before he came to SF and threw 10 TDs and 0 INTs his first season there? Having a HOF coach and one of the greatest supporting casts of all time doesn’t hurt.

Didn’t hurt that the team also had Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Roger Craig, Ronnie Lott, Charles Haley, Michael Carter, Bill Romanowski, Wesley Walls… Montana was arguably the GOAT before Brady came along, but Brady ended any legitimate debate.

Montana left the 49ers, and they kept on rolling. Brady left the Patriots, and they’ve been mediocre at best since.

Remember when Steve Young, Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins played on the franchise tags and it ruined them financially and professionally?

It’s 100% on the Ravens. They’re the ones who hit him with the tag that kept him from being able to get market value. If the Ravens would actually “move on from him”, he’d have a long term deal somewhere else in a heartbeat.

Josh has made more money than Lamar because he's a better player than Lamar. He was offered a massive extension as soon as he was eligible for one. The Ravens chose to wait a year with Lamar. Their front office has a history of operating differently than most, and waiting until after the 2021 season to start to renegotiate Lamar's deal reflects their philosophy. I don't understand this board's obsession with insisting that Lamar should have signed a contract that was offered to a different player from a different team in a different year. Josh signed a huge contract in 2021. Good for him. That has nothing to do with Lamar. Contracts operate the way they are written. Sometimes they are extensions that take effect after the existing contact expires. Sometimes they replace the existing contract and take effect right away. Josh made more than Lamar last season because that's what was agreed to. Lamar will make more than Josh this season if he signs the deal that's currently on the table because that's what Lamar's offer states. It's no more complicated than that. What Lamar has going for him that Josh doesn't is that Lamar stands to make more money each season than he did the last while Josh's deal was structured with a windfall last season that averages $36 million a season for the next six years. If he stays healthy, Lamar is absolutely going to earn way more than that over that span. What Josh has going for him that Lamar doesn't is the security of knowing he's got $150 million is guaranteed money in the event that he gets injured. Lamar is taking a risk that he's going to stay healthy, and if he does, he's probably going to make an extra $50 million or so compared to what he turned down. If he does get hurt and can't play, he'll have to get by on the $65 million he'll have earned in his career after this season.

I don't disagree that he's taking what I would consider to be too big of a risk, but it's paid off so far in that he didn't sustain an injury that will prevent him from playing in future seasons. My assumption is that he will eventually sign a long term deal that pays him a little less than what he's asking for but more than the $133 million guaranteed over 5 years he supposedly turned down. As of this minute, he has lost nothing in terms of realized income, though. As for endorsements, this doesn't impact anything. He's never been particularly marketable as a spokesperson. His contract won't impact that in the slightest. I want to be clear that if I were advising him, I'd suggest signing the best long term deal he can get this off-season. I'm simply disputing the notion that he's somehow already earned less than he would have if he'd taken the deal last year (not to mention the absurd claims that his salary 2 years ago was somehow impacted by not signing an offer that didn't get made until September of 2022).

Why do you keep bringing up the previous two years? There have been zero reports that Lamar was offered his deal until last off-season. Josh received $20 million the first year of his new contract. Last season would have been the first year of Lamar's new contract. Lamar earned $22 million last season. Josh earned $47 million in year two of his new deal and will earn $28 million in year three. Lamar will earn $32.4 million this season that would have been year two of his new deal if he doesn't sign a new deal. So after two seasons, Josh earned $67 million compared to $54.4 million for Lamar. Here's the thing, though. Josh will average about $38 million over the next 5 years starting in 2024. If Lamar averages $40 million during the same timeframe, something that is absolutely attainable if he stays healthy, he will earn more than Josh's contract paid, and he's a lesser player. The entire reason long term deals exist is that players are willing to accept a little less total money in order to get guarantees against injury, and teams are willing to offer guaranteed money in order to get long term costs down. If Lamar stays healthy, he will earn more by playing on one year deals than he would have by signing a long term contract, but that's a huge "if".

If he told the Ravens he’d take that deal today, they’d sign it in a heartbeat.

Nobody is arguing that he’s turned down guaranteed money. That’s literally the point. He’s turned down a bird in the hand because he wants two in the bush. It may work out and it may not, but there’s no way of knowing yet because he’s neither signed a deal nor missed a paycheck. Until one of those two things happen, there’s no way of knowing. NFL contracts are negotiations. Longer deals pay less in total value, but they pay more in guaranteed money. It’s a hedge for both sides. Players hedge against injury, and owners hedge against paying full future market value. Lamar isn’t hedging. As long as he stays healthy and is viewed as a top 10-15 QB, that’s a win for him. The whole “passive interest” part of it is ridiculous. My line of work revolves around it, and if I could invest my money in a fund indexed against the NFL salary cap, I’d do it every time. But that isn’t even the point. You’re assuming that a 26 year old celebrity athlete given $Xmillion today is going to have $Xmillion plus interest a year from now, and that’s just not realistic. 26 year olds with money don’t go broke because they lost out on one year of interest.

I’m not playing both sides. He’s gone the Kirk Cousins route so far. It’s how you make the most money unless you get injured.

The contract wasn’t offered until last September. There’s nothing to ignore.

So you think he’s not going to make $133M in the next 3 seasons? That’s the bar, and I’ll take the over.

I agree with you in theory, but NFL salaries are FAR outpacing the market. The longer you wait to sign, the more you get when you’re an elite player (because that market never dries up). You don’t take a lesser lump sum when the QB market is inflating at the current rate. Deferred compensation can be a very smart move when the conditions are right. Ask Bobby Bonilla if you don’t believe me.

He literally wasn’t eligible for a contract extension after 2019. I’m not trying to be combative here, and I appreciate the discussion even if it doesn’t always come across that way. I just disagree with the notion that he’s lost $30M. Josh’s deal was 100% independent of Lamar’s, so I don’t know why people act like it is. It’s funny because Lamar’s primary argument is that he should get at least what Watson got, and every armchair agent is swearing up and down that he shouldn’t expect to get what Deshawn got just because the Browns offered it to Watson. Well, why should we then assume that Lamar would have been able to get the same deal Josh got? By the time he was eligible for an extension (after the 2020 season), Josh was nearly universally considered to be a superior QB to Lamar. Josh signed a huge deal, but he still left money on the table. That’s not what Lamar wants. His goal is to maximize his guaranteed earnings, and the way to do that is to go the Kirk Cousins route. He’s actually willing to take a little less, but he’s decided that he’s only willing to do that if the money is guaranteed. He’s gambling on his health. It might work and it might not, but he hasn’t “lost” any money by not signing a long-term deal (so far).

Hell, some of them have never even played against him.

What money is lost? He’s going to make more than Josh this year if he signs the Franchise tag. In all likelihood, that won’t happen though. He’s going to sign an even bigger contract than he was supposedly offered last season, and he will have made more money playing under his existing deal in 2022 than he would have if he’d signed a new deal last year. The math isn’t that difficult. Players give up money by signing long term deals in exchange for the security of guaranteed money. The only way it’s a losing proposition is if he sustains a long-term injury. A franchise QB will always make more playing on one-year deals as long as they stay healthy.

So we’re now blaming Lamar for not signing the contract that was offered to Josh Allen. You’re joking, right? In case you haven’t noticed, Josh is a better player than Lamar. He’s always going to make more than Lamar. That said, Lamar made a ton of money last year, and he’s going to make a ton of money this year. There are 32 teams who need a QB capable of playing at an MVP level, and LJ is one of about 10 people in the world who fit that description. He’s going to get a MASSIVE contract. It’s probably not going to break records, but it’s going to make him wealthy beyond his wildest dreams. All the people clutching their pearls worrying about Lamar’s financial well-being will finally be able to breathe easy.

How do you figure? He’s almost certainly going to sign a massive deal before this upcoming season with a huge signing bonus that averages more that the $44 million deal he turned down.

What are you even suggesting he should have done? Lamar wasn’t even offered his extension until September 2022. Josh signed his in 2021, so it’s apples versus oranges. Lamar earned $23 million last year and will earn a minimum of $32 million this year. That’s $55 million in two seasons following the contract offer, and he’ll be a free agent again after the season. Kirk Cousins has made an obscene fortune doing the same thing.

Allen’s deal averages $43 million over 6 years, and it’s heavily back-loaded. Lamar gets a minimum of $32 million in 2023 which is $4 million more than Josh will get.

And Lamar can still sign his name today and get a guaranteed $32 million just next season which would make it $55 million over a two year stretch and still be eligible for a brand new contract.

I’m not claiming he has. The statement I responded to was claiming he’d never recoup the money he’d lost when the reality is that he hasn’t lost a dime.

What money has he lost?