FireChans

I don’t agree, but the bottom line is that fan expectations of Keon are so high because the FO made them so high. If Keon was just another second round pick after 1 or 2 OTHER WRs, the expectations of him would be rotational player to starter. Instead, Beane and co basically made him the only true egg in the basket. And that means that fans are not just going to expect a solid or okay player, but at least a very good or great player.

Okay list all the nfl teams that you think have worse WR groups than the Bills. I will expect a definitive answer of AT LEAST 13 to consider us decent/average.

No I think it’s a reality. The WRs are actual garbage league wide. The amount of offschedule plays that Josh makes that makes his receiving options and his OL look good is criminally underrated imo. Those plays largely end up the difference between winning or losing games like the Colts game. 4 win team without Josh. I stand by it.

Not even just that. The Bills offense was the best in the NFL in the turnover category. If they drop to top 10, which would still be very good, the defense would be even more horrific. The reason Josh won MVP is because he carried a lackluster offense and a bad defense to 13 wins. That is THE reason he won, with lesser stats than other QBs.

You lost me entirely on the defense. The 2024 Bills defense were 11th in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed, true. But on a per drive basis, they were horrific. 5th best starting position, but 25th in time allowed, 23rd in plays, 26th in yards allowed, 18th in points allowed. Along with a truly ghastly 3rd down % that was 29th in the league, and a RZ% that was bang on league average at 16th. The 2024 defense was a function of the offense shortening the game, playing more ball control, and thankfully, being so hyper-efficient in some blowouts that it made the defense just one of the worst in the league rather than THE worst in the league. And we all know who that was thanks to, the guy who won MVP for dragging that offense to those heights. Mack Hollins led the team in TDs. 4 win roster without Josh.

Holy smokes. YOU brought up Diggs. I never said Diggs was a bad trade. Not once. I never said Diggs wasn’t anything but a great trade. But that’s what he was, a TRADE, not a free agent. A player of Diggs quality at 26 or 27 years old doesn’t hit FA. You don’t get a chance at that type of player, WITHOUT TRADING FOR HIM, unless you draft him yourself. You get chances at Brown’s, Beasley’s, and more recently, Samuel’s, Hollins’ and Palmers’. No one is saying the Bills are doing it all wrong, or that the offense sucks or whatever arguments you are dreaming up. You didn’t just make 2 mistakes. You make a mistake every post because you don’t understand the discussion and are just trying to win argument with yourself lol.

lol the top WR salary was a percentage of the cap. Now you are getting into apples and orangutans comparisons.

He wouldn’t have gotten a salary of $1M in FA. I didn’t mention you could or couldn’t talk about anyone. Not sure what argument you’re trying to have. Except for Diggs who we did pay massively with his extension in 2022. You can’t even get the basic facts straight to have whatever discussion you think you’re having.

Cooper being traded for at his existing salary, which was less than $1M instead of being a free agent signing had EVERYTHING to do with how much he was paid by the Bills. I’m afraid you are missing the point.

Here are the 2nd round WRs since 2016: Sterling Shepard Michael Thomas Tyler Boyd Zay Jones Curtis Samuel JuJu Sutton Dante Pettis Christian Kirk Anthony Miller James Washington DJ Chark Deebo AJ Brown DK Mecole Hardman JJAW Parris Campbell Andy Isabella Higgins Pittman Shenault Hamler Claypool Van Jefferson Elijah Moore Rondale Moore Eskridge Atwell Marshall Watson Robinson Metchie Thornton Pickens Pierce Moore Mingo Reed Rice Mims now depending on your definition of bust, the rate may be 50% it’s hard to say. But some of the guys we may consider overall busts like Claypool had a productive season or 2 before washing out. FWIW, DK was pick 64

I’m not sure I get this logic. Dont you want your second round picks to be players who are good and valuable enough to command massive extensions? This logic would suggest that James Cook, if he walks after this year, was a better draft pick than DK Metcalf.

I’d like to see some supporting evidence that the dollar amount of WR overpays in FA over the last 3 seasons is equivalent to any other position sans QB. the Beasley and Brown contracts were in 2019. The NFL has changed a bit since then. Amari Cooper wasn’t a free agent. Diggs didn’t play a snap on the extension given to him in 2022, are you being sarcastic that it was worth every penny?

Yeah, those are the ones that significant contracts. The problem with “any position” is that WR is quickly becoming the second highest paid position. So an overpay or bad contract for a mid tier off-ball linebacker will hurt less than an overpay or bad contract for a mid tier WR. That’s the point.

I feel like drafting a second or third round RB every other year is a horrific strategy. Who would you rather have on a rookie contract? A top 15 running back or a top 30 WR? I was talking about Mooney….

No one loves flutie as much as they hate Rob Johnson

Fair enough. Here are the contracts that I believe were wild over pays the last 3 years. Allen Lazard 4 for 44M DHop 2 for 26M OBJ 1 for 15M Harty 2 for 9.5M Samuel 3 for 24M Gabe 3 for 39M Diggs 3 for 63M (technically less I know) Adams 2 for 44M Palmer 3 for 29M I wouldn’t have wanted the Bills to do any of these deals. Agree? These are the majority of big deals signed from 2023 to now. They are mostly bad. I think it’s a bad market.

Aieee. If Darnell Mooney had better QB play in 2023 and put up 800 yards and 7 TDs, would he have gotten more or less money than he did? Are we pretending like teams don’t care about production at all? Like I said, for the 10th time, obviously the evaluation for a player like Mooney went beyond his production. Otherwise he would have gotten less money.

Yeah, they were right, and the Jags were wrong. They could have been wrong and the Jags right. NONE of them knew it at the time. That doesn’t make the market any less wild for a guy with back to back 400 yard seasons. That’s Josh Palmer production. FWIW, I liked Mooney as an offseason target, and thought he would be overlooked because of how putrid Justin Fields is, but he got the same deal that a twice as productive WR on a Super Bowl contender got. To me, that’s evidence the WR market is kinda nuts. Maybe you disagree. That’s cool

No one said they just looked at yardage. what we both know they didn’t look at is what they did AFTER they signed the contract. Same thing with Ridley.

Of course they do. Usually, those projections are based on past performance at the time of signing. Not future performance that is completely unknowable at the time of signing. So saying Darnell Mooney got paid by the Falcons because he had a 1000 yard season with the Falcons is completely nonsensical.

I feel like there is. whats the line about having 2 of the top 32 pass catchers in almost every Super Bowl team? How many of those guys were signed in FA vs were drafted or traded for? Off the top of my head, guys like Hill, Brown, Kittle, Aiyuk, Smith, Kelce, etc etc. I’d imagine next to none of them were Josh Palmer or Curtis Samuel tier FAs that got their best seasons at the right time, right?

I didn’t realize all these teams knew what those guys were gonna do AFTER they gave them contracts lol. What a strange way to evaluate a market. If Brandon Beane had paid Palmer $30M AAV, maybe he turns into the next JJ.

????? Calvin Ridley got $23M AAV that offseason. Darnell Mooney got virtually the exact same contract Gabe did last offseason, coming off back to back 400 yard seasons. "single outlier?" Bah

Oh I'm not arguing about talent or the need for quality pass catches. I agree with trying early and often to get them. The problem I have is that Josh Palmer or Curtis Samuel have next to no chance to be in the top 32 of receiving options in 2025. Just like the story we were sold on having 5 #3 and #4 WR's with Mack, Claypool and MVS was last year. So I don't want to play in a market where we are dedicating 17M AAV (Samuel + Palmer) for what? Maybe ~700 yards and a handful of TDs? On the contrary, I would try to almost exclusively acquire WR talent from the draft. Maybe trade. Never FA. The WR position is a marquee position. The great ones are rarely hitting the market. There are a LARGE amount of overpaid bust FA WR signings. And IMO for a lot of them, the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

It’s funny you mention Barkley, the folks around here largely saw Saquon as a massive overpay by the Iggles last year. But that’s my point. Saquon for his dollar to impact amount was under valued last offseason. A guy like Gabe Davis was overvalued. Target guys like #1 and avoid guys like number #2. Let the Jags of the world overpay for middling WR talent while we target the underpays. If you say Cook isn't that guy, so be it. Maybe overpay a Jahmyr Gibbs or Bjian as the next "guy."