FireChans

Fair points. The snaps/dolllars amount makes Khalil Shakir's 13M AAV deal comparable to the tops in the league though.

A lot of that SB run team is just overrated. I love Steve Tasker. Great ST guy. He is competing with Moorman for maybe the best ST player in Bills history. He is in no way a greater or more valuable Bill than Kyle WIlliams or Bennet.

That's not what I'm ignoring. It's why I'm trying to avoid. Paying a premium for a JAG because you need a WR in free agency. Overpaying for a Gabe Davis or a Curtis Samuel or a Christian Kirk or a Josh Palmer because of the market forces at WR feels like a mistake.

I think at this point, the Bills are not going to chase a $30M WR like DK while Josh is here. I would have less of a problem with an elite WR making elite money, but I think where the rubber meets the road is the "middle class" of WR's, that are also inflated relative to value. The 32nd highest paid WR is making $11M AAV. That's 4% of the cap. I can't easily pull the numbers, but in 2018, it was definitely less. John Brown was making like 2%. Personally, I would rather have Cook + OL and no Palmer. Just draft guys at WRs. FA WRs aren't worth it. See: Samuel, Curtis.

If Gabe wasn't paid big money, paying Cook that money isn't big money either.

He was paid more than what some folks think James Cook is worth. His contract was a top 5 RB contract.

The point is not overpaying for WR's, where there is imo massive inflation for actual value, and instead using that money elsewhere where we can take advantage of an undervalued position. Better than paying Gabe Davis worked out for the Jags.

That’s a good point. My counter would be that I believe there has been over correction in the market. So while I agree that you can’t pay top dollar at every position, I would ask what positions on offense do you think we are paying top dollar at? Josh. Our OTs. That’s it. suffice it to say, at this point, I think there’s better value in paying Cook over a Josh Palmer or Gabe Davis tier free agent. And I think the Bills get a competitive edge over a league that is throwing money hand over fist at guys like that by recognizing it first.

??? The salary cap is the driver of just about every major decision made by a football team. Having to eat Diggs cap hit is why our starting WR's last year were Mack Hollins and a second round rookie. The decision to pay or not pay James Cook is 100% solely based on the salary cap. You can't just ignore it. No teams do.

There was 1 NFL WR making what OBJ made in 2018. His name was OBJ. You made an apples to oranges comparison to prove WR inflation wasn't real. You were wrong. The highest paid WR in 2018 made 10% of the cap. The highest paid WR in 2025 made 14%. The top 5 WR's in 2018 by AAV made an average of 9% of the salary cap The top 5 WR's in 2025 by AAV make an average of 12% of the salary cap. That's the other issue with RB's. How many pretty good backs are on that list? It's hard to compete in a market flooded with supply.

OBJ was the market setting contract though. A better comparison would be Chase's contract, which is 40M AAV. All the way up to 14% of the cap.

There's some market inefficiencies to take advantage of here. First, let's set the stage: In 2018, the salary cap was 177M. In 2025, its 279M. In 2018, one of the best RB's of his era, Todd Gurley, who was second in MVP voting signed a massive extension. That extension was 4 years for 57M. An AAV of of $14M. 21M guaranteed at signing (with more guarantees later if he made the team). A record setting contract. Those numbers, TODAY, would make him the 4th highest paid running back in the league. So when we are talking about a Cook extension, and how that fits in the salary cap, just remember, he is asking for a little more than 2018 Todd Gurley money with a $100M more in salary cap space. Now, of course, other contracts have been inflated. QBs make more than ever. WR's make more than ever. Odell Beckham set the WR market in 2018. He signed a 5 year, 95M deal, with 18M AAV and 41M in GTD. in 2025, that would make him tied for the 20th highest paid WR, right next to Christian Kirk (who inked his deal in 2022). The guarantees are even close, with Kirk getting $37M over 4 years of his deal. So what conclusions can we draw from this? Nothing that we didn't already know. The NFL at large has decided that running backs aren't valuable and that WR's are crazy valuable. However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack. I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV. We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did. I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does.

Dumervil was a VERY good player, a Hall of Very Good player. Unfortunately, he may be best remembered for the fax machine mixup in 2013.

I don't know what your criteria for playoff success is, but there haven't even been ten different teams to win a Superbowl since 2015.

I think another example is Goff and Stafford in Detroit. We all know the Lions have had far better team success with Goff. But Lions Stafford was an absolute force at QB for quite a while. i think if Lions are listing their all time great QBs, Stafford is above Goff. Despite not having the same team success. Because they all know he was better.

Probably like 100 bucks. whats one year when they probably wouldn’t anyway

If you can’t remember, you don’t need to commit. You get to experience the heartache forever blissfully unaware you sold it. Come to think of it, some Bills fan probably already took the money in 1963

Tasker too high, Kelly too high, Josh too low.

I’d take 500k on the condition that I lost my memory of the deal.

there are 4 pages previously re-litigating a play that happened when Keon Coleman was still at FSU. Blaming me for taking this train off the tracks is deeply unfair.

I'm going to leave you all with this because it is far too off topic. The point of all of this is that we will not get unlimited chances with Josh Allen. He is 29 years old. Maybe he plays great for the next 10 or 15 years. Maybe its 5. Maybe its 3. We do not know. When it was 2020, I felt like we had a very long runway. Josh had arrived as an elite player (finishing second in MVP voting) the Bills had their best season since 1995, an AFCCG defeat to the defending Super Bowl champs, and our championship window was wide open. And now here we are, 5 years later. Same exact spot. Offensive and defensive cornerstones have come and gone. Same exact spot. 5 years of drafts and free agents. Same exact spot. Let's look at some of those constants through those 5 years. Josh Allen is excellent. He tends to perform very well, even in playoff defeats. We all agree with this. There is no meaningful way to try to improve on Josh Allen, and it would be foolhardy to even attempt. Injuries and bad luck are unable to be controlled. I am down for whatever voodoo or black magic or shamrock stuff you all would like to try. The other constants are the GM and the HC. The GM's personnel decisions have been discussed ad naseum, but there's room for improvement there, right? And finally we come to the finale, the head coach. The defensive head coach who seems to have his defense play one of the worst games of the year, EVERY YEAR, in the biggest game of the year (the last one). Constant. Consistency. If we weren't all Bills fans, we would all have a chuckle at this version of the Bills, who despite performing at a high level just about every regular season, collapse defensively EVERY SINGLE YEAR in the postseason. We usually reserve words like "chokers" or "frauds" for teams like the Ravens or the Cowboys, but honestly, we are kind of right there with them. Suffice it to say, there is one person employed by the Bills that I am 100% convinced is good enough to win a Superbowl and his name is Josh Allen. I'm not convinced anyone else is good enough. I am convinced that McD and Beane are good enough to make the playoffs and lose. That's what they have proven to me. I have no problem with anyone's faith alternatively, but that's what it is. And I have lost that faith. 0-4 will do that to you. I also wonder if some of the players have lost that faith as well. As far as individual players missing or injured each season, can anyone name all the starting DBs from the 2020 Buccaneers? I can't. What about the starting DBs from the 2021 Bengals? I can't. Do you know who was injured in the first Q of the 2023 Chiefs divisional round game? Their starting safety. Do you know who was traded in the 2024 offseason? The Chiefs best starting outside CB because they couldn't afford him. So miss me with the "we were down a starting safety 3 years ago which is really the reason the Chiefs had another elite offensive performance and ripped through McD's defense AGAIN." The whole point of a defensive coach, I thought, was to hold up their end of the bargain when paired with an elite offensive talent. Josh doesn't need an elite OC to be elite. But he does need support from the other side of the ball when he is pacing on the sideline. He hasn't gotten it. So now, coming off an offseason almost solely dedicated to the defensive side of the ball, what is stuff going to be if they get ripped through, again? "We just need a few more bounces or luck, we are so close" "(Insert player here) had a hamstring injury which is why the Chiefs averaged 9 yards per play" Same story, different day. It's gotten really freakin old. And I love the Bills. I even really like McD, I think he's a good coach. But I have officially had enough of running it back and not seeing an ROI on our defensive investment. Good luck to you all and I really do hope you are right. Because I know McD and Beane aren't going anywhere, so to me, they either get it done or we will never see ultimate victory in the Josh Allen era.

The games are close because our offense usually plays very well. A bit of luck or a bounce or two or a few more difference makers is not a sufficient explanation for the Chiefs playing one of their best offensive games of the season year after year against the Bills in the playoffs, imo. They lost their #1 WR for the year in week 4 for cripe's sake. They had to trade away Tyreek Hill for salary cap reasons and have had their last 2 seasons being fifteenth in points scored. How is that not luck for the Bills?

Are you on the "Cam wasn't a good QB" train too? Do you think players' careers can't be compared because they aren't as good? Here's another example. Maybe he's good enough to qualify as a comparison. Chuck Pagano had a winning percentage of .614 when Andrew Luck was starting. He went an incredible 6-3 with Hasselback and Freeman when Luck got hurt in 2015. He was .500 in the playoffs and had an AFCCG appearance in his first 3 seasons. I bet Colts fans thought they had 12 more years of being in the mix with Luck. They thought they had some bad luck and would eventually break through. They thought they had a very good coach whose only losing season came when Luck missed a full season. They were wrong. If Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano aren't good enough to be discussed or compared to Josh and McDermott, then there's honestly no reason to discuss anything about them because they are both 1 of 1's and unless we invent cloning technology, nothing will ever be comparable.

Cam Newton wasn't as good as Josh Allen. However, the 2 seasons before Josh Allen won MVP, he threw 64 TDs to 32 INTs. Cam was not a good QB? Nah. Man, Bills fans are so spoiled by Josh lol.

Um, Cam Newton had 981 rushing attempts in his 10 year career in Carolina. Josh Allen has 759 rushing attempts in his 7 year career in Buffalo. It's likely at this point that Josh surpasses Cam in career attempts. We all know that Josh is a far superior passer than Cam. But if he faces the same physical decline that Cam did at 30, will he still be an MVP QB or just a good QB? We all saw what happened to Russell Wilson when he lost a step. The biggest takeaway from the Cam Newton comparison SHOULD be that not every QB plays at the peak of their powers until 39 years old. I bet Carolina Panthers fans saw Cam win MVP in 2015 and thought they had 10 more years of him playing at a high level. They were wrong.