Mikie2times

Like Biscuit said, I used football outsiders stats. Far superior to conventional statistics.

Thanks for the nice words guys. I'm a firm believer that perceptions need to be questioned. I can't count how many times I've thought something then looked at more accurate data and was way off. Based on this, with unbiased eyes, Gailey seems to be a good underrated prospect for us. We need stability in our franchise so bad right now, and whether people like it or not the environment fans provide to this new staff does alter stability. I hope as many fans as possible will come forward and show support, not for Gailey, but for at least giving the man a chance to be successful.

I agree totally, and that's the reason I took the time to do this. We need to at least give the guy a chance. Contrary to the outburst amongst fans, he actually seems to have a lot going for him. By not giving him a chance people are making us even less attractive to staff now and down the road.

Keep in mind we sought after a coach that was.... 1. Offensive minded. 2. Head coaching experience. 3. Playoff Experience. 4. A guy that could work with Quarterbacks like Mike Tomczak, Kordell Stewart, Jay Fiedler, and Tyler Thigpen. 5. A guy that can show improvement year to year. See below (all football outsider stats) Pittsburgh Offensive Coordinator 1996-1997 1995 (Previous year) Offense Ranked:12 Passing: 11 Rushing: 17 1996 (First Season) Offense Rank:12 Passing: 24 Rushing: 1 1997 (Second Season) Offense Rank:6 Passing: 12 Rushing: 5 1998 (After Departure) Offense Rank:20 Passing: 26 Rushing: 11 Dallas Head Coach 1998-1999 1997 (Previous year) Record: 6-10 Power Rating: 13 Offense Ranked:20 Passing: 14 Rushing: 23 1998 (First Season) Record: 10-6 (Playoffs) Power Rating: 9 Offense Ranked:6 Passing: 6 Rushing: 5 1999 (Second Season) Record: 8-8 (Playoffs) Power Rating: 8 Offense Ranked:12 Passing: 13 Rushing: 8 1999 (After Departure) Record: 5-11 Power Rating: 24 Offense Ranked:24 Passing: 24 Rushing: 16 Miami Offensive Coordinator (2000-2001) 1999 (Previous year) Offense Ranked:21 Passing: 19 Rushing: 26 2000 (First Season) Offense Rank:18 Passing: 18 Rushing: 14 2001 (Second Season) Offense Rank:20 Passing: 9 Rushing: 30 2002 (After Departure) Offense Rank:11 Passing: 19 Rushing: 7 Kansas City Offensive Coordinator (2008) 2007 (Previous year) Offense Ranked:29 Passing: 28 Rushing: 30 2008 (First Season) Offense Ranked:22 Passing: 23 Rushing: 22 2009 (After Departure) Offense Ranked:25 Passing: 26 Rushing: 20 We just hired exactly what "we wanted". But it's clear by the reaction we wanted all this, plus a "big name". I wasn't happy at first, but it's clear to me we hired a legit coach, and actually did do our homework. Probably the best hire we could have made considering the lack of people who seemed to want to coach here.

At first I was furious. I said to my wife this is the most depressed I felt about the Bills in 20 years. She replied.."I know a lot of Lions fans that just gave up on them and switched teams, why don't you just do that?". I said your really not a Bills fan if you can give up and switch teams.... I might not like this decision, but the worst thing for our franchise right now is to ride him out of town before he arrives.

All of what you said is spot on, ESPECIALLY the unit plays. I'm also on Dallas moneyline and was toying with SD and the over. Right now I'm just going to play the Dallas game. But we shall see.

I don't recommend starting gambling to anybody unless it's for very small amounts. I've spent an unimaginable amount of time researching college and pro football. In hindsight, it took me about 7 years and literally thousands of hours to have any idea what was good and what wasn't. Even now it's far from an easy thing to beat but I've been fortunate. My advice to anybody playing college or pro is learn to change the way you think. Odds makers play off your perceptions. If you ask 5 people who they like in a game and 4 say the Patriots, FADE the Patriots. Challenge popular opinion and find those teams playing well but flying under the radar. Don't rely on game scores or stats (remember the book plays off your perceptions), instead actually understand why things are happening to a team. Understand how critical motivation is. In the college and pro game teams will often come out flat in the same situations! The best wagers partner motivation and perception. For example say your an NFL team and you just had a huge win on Monday Night. ESPN is caressing you all week, you start to believe your bowel movements smell like cinnamon candles. Next you get to play on the road vs a below average team who should just roll over and bow to your greatness. Well the reality is that below average team is not THAT much worse then you, they watched you on Monday night, they watched you on ESPN all week, they didn't have a short week to prepare, they get to play at home, and they cry at night because they don't get any attention. Odds makers will then release a line that looks like a "sure thing", 95% of the betting world will jump on the favorite, and by 4pm everybody is broke. That won't happen to you, so long as you respect motivation.

weak. well I still see it playing out this way. just longer then I thought it would take.

Could be possible, so what I said plus a week if true. But I think the logic is sound. From Buffalo's shoes, no matter who we sign, he has to look like he was the guy we wanted all along. To do that he needs to be signed quickly when they become available.

Two schools of thought 1. Frazier really is our guy, people around the league know it, they will not participate in our PR quest to make it look like no stone was unturned. Press conference announced Monday, Frazier signs by Tuesday. 2. Frazier was one of the guys, but after failed attempts at other coaches he is the only qualified coach left. They spin it as scenario 1. to the fans which could appear true as long as they move fast. Press conference announced Monday, Frazier signs by Tuesday. If the Vikings lose and Frazier becomes the next head coach of the Bills, things will move very fast. The Bills can't afford for them not to with a shaky PR situation going on.

1 Gap vs 2 Gap describes the way the DT lines up. The way the DT lines up determines what type of DT you need. Each offensive lineman has a gap on each side of him. A 2 gap tackle will usually line up head on with a guard, a nose tackle does it vs a center. His job is to control two gaps. So say if I'm over the G, I will have a gap between the Center and Guard, and the Guard and Tackle, I need to plug both myself. I need to occupy blockers so the linebackers can be free to make a play. A guy like P. Williams is a good example of a two gap player. A guy like Ted Washington is a good example of a NT. These guys rarely put up numbers but really free up everybody else. Usually heavy and very strong. Better against the run then for applying pressure. A 1 gap tackle will line up directly over one of the gaps. His job is to control only his gap. You want somebody who is fast, and who can penetrate. He needs to shoot his gap and get in the backfield. This lends to "undersized" DT's. One gap players generally have higher stat lines. Warren Sapp is a great example of a 1 gap DT. Better for applying pressure then against the run. A good example of how a defense can get in to trouble or have player conflict is Sam Adams. At the end he had to play a 2 gap responsibility, but he thought he was a 1 gap tackle (he probably was despite his size). If a guy want's to shoot a gap and penetrate it's obviously difficult to control both gaps. I think Frazier believes in the 1 gap system completely, but I also think he would take a guy like Ngata because he's a hell of a player (often one DT will play one technique, and the other will play the opposite position). Frazier has adapted to what he has/gets repeatedly, and he's worked with the brightest defensive minds in football.

Thanks, really consider the Ravens total as well. That's a very strong play. They should have gone way under last weekend but had a run of turnovers and nearly had a record for points scored in a quarter. No questions they will be run focused in this game and the defense has allowed 17 or less 8 out of the last 10 games (including a 17-15 game vs the Colts in Baltimore). The Colts are all about timing and they've shown they can lose that in the past with a playoff bye week. The under is also 6-3 the last 10 for the Ravens.

Very nice article. I was going to write something similar in defense of him. No doubt in my mind Frazier is a legit HC candidate.

This is what I'm looking at this weekend. The Ravens/Indy Under Cowboys Money line SD -7

that would be VERY cool. never happen b/c all conferences like padding wins with sun belt and mac teams. My match ups would be.... Alabama vs Penn State Florida vs Ohio State LSU vs Iowa Georgia vs Wisconsin Auburn vs Michigan State Tennessee vs Michigan Arkansas vs Northwestern South Carolina Vs Purdue Vanderbilt vs Indiana Kentucky vs Illinois Mississippi St vs Minnesota

All these arguments about bowl records are stupid. Bowl wins come from coaching and motivation and often don't come close to showing the actual strength of each team. If you want something accurate look how LVSC rates the teams. This is the firm that sets the lines for 70% of Las Vegas. In almost every situation SEC powers vs other powers are within a 6 points. Traditional SEC school vs other traditional BCS conferences usually have even tighter lines. They adjust somewhat toward public opinion/SEC, but the lines are always close. I hope people keep thinking the SEC is somehow this magical can't lose conference. I will keep making a fortune off the inflated spreads.

as a side note, I talk with much more then the south. We have offices in WNY. Outside of South Dakota I don't think I've talked to a nicer group of people. I knew I became a Bills fan for a reason...

I talk mostly with both Carolina's, Virginia, and Tennessee. I actually talk to your area a lot. I grew up in the burbs outside Detroit, moved to Toledo, OH awhile back. I enjoy some things about my area and don't others. My cost of living is extremely low here. My income is good. We have plenty of places to go. My wife is eight zillion times more attractive then I am so the ladies would be nice but not needed. About my comments on your area... it seems like the uneducated are REALLY uneducated. It's not uncommon at all for a question to be phrased "Do what now?". Then a group of folks clearly show a distaste for northerners, a rather silly superiority complex IMO. Then as you pointed out, a group of folks who are about as nice of people I've ever talked to. I wish I could say that last group of people is the most prevalent, but I talk to just as many as the other two groups as I do the nice ones. Just like any place, I'm sure it has some good and bad.

a big no thanks to that. I talk to people from many southern states as part of my job, the only time I like it is when I'm talking with a midwest transplant.

does anybody realize you need very specific players to run a 3-4, and the the previous cover 2 provides players who are about as far from 3-4 players as any other system you could run? One thing I can guarantee, we won't be running the 3-4 next year.

Exactly. It must be a ball grabbing event for a warm weather guy to experience his first 15degree/25mph day. Hell, for those that have lived in it forever a quiet "Son of a ****, God ****, F**" can usually be heard.

How do you win when your BEST QB the last decade was a 50 year old Drew Bledsoe? We missed on every QB attempt we had the last decade. We nearly missed on every first round pick we've had in that same stretch. Are all these guys 2nd string? No, but they're sure as hell aren't providing what is necessary from the draft slot they were chosen at. Direction, ownership, coaching, they all seem to make sense when your winning, and they all seem to not when your losing. If you wanted me to come up with a list of 10-6 or better teams with crap coaching it would be about one billion times larger then the list of 10-6 or better teams with crap rosters. As crazy as this sounds the games are ultimately won on the field.

Our talent has been the problem people, much more then Ralph, cash to cap, coaching, or any other logic being thrown around. Our talent the last 15 years has been abysmal. It’s been abysmal because our drafting has been abysmal. For the first time in that entire stretch Ralph actually has a scout responsible for player decisions. We actually have a guy whose best trademark isn’t selling tickets, but locating talented players. If we draft well we will win. If we win the face of our organization will change.

The location of our team means nothing to prospective coaches and players. If anything I'm sure both would say they would prefer a more mild climate. Again, this isn't a huge deal to players and coaches. Our stability, amongst the entire organization, is a big deal. Our owner is 91, and unfortunately 91 year old owners pass away more frequently then 60 or 70 year old owners. This owner controls the HC's fate. Any new owner content on leaving us here or moving our team is still a new owner. New owner = unknown person responsible for your paycheck. Our entire staff has been turned over more times then Jenna Jamison. Since our playoff drought started only a couple HC's, OC's, and DC's have survived three years in this city. Our team lacks talent at positions which provide NFL teams with consistency.

I don't think he's with anybody, by choice or not I don't know.