Mikie2times

Lamar is a train wreck. Just watch Louisville vs Houston last year or any game he plays when he faces pressure. Not pretty. Darnold is likely your #1 if he declares but USC is struggling on offense (struggling is a relative term) Rudolph is the guy I like right now. Oklahoma State is playing like a BCS contender after closing 2016 like a BCS contender. Rudolph has been lights out.

Really stupid one siding the last play. Taylor did his job allowing his WR to get two hands on it. He could have done it better? He also could have ran him out of bounds or into coverage he extends the fade angle and doesn't get up field. Zay ran a great route and got open. Made a good inside adjustment on the throw and put him into position to make a very difficult play.

Correct, I believe we were ranked #1 following week 2 after we destroyed the Patriots and Jaguars by a combined score of 69-17. We won 4 more games the rest of the year.

I see your point. Where I differ from you isn't in the normal "Rex sucks" mentality. He was a genius prior to the NFL changing the rules in the passing game. After that he couldn't adapt. It wasn't just the fact that he is not HC material. He has not shown the ability to get away from Island man coverage, Oversized LB's, stop the run first type defense. That isn't how defense is played anymore. A genius would see that and adapt and not hold onto a defensive style best suited for the 70's/80's/90's/early 2000's.

https://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/49689-kyle-williams-will-start-at-nt/?fromsearch=1 Let's pretend I'm one for one. But seriously, you could see it right away with him. Never thought he would end up being the best DT in Bills history. Who doesn't love the guy.

Kyle got hurt last year and he thought about retiring. Bum.

Game changed and he didn't. After they started calling illegal contact as tight as they do now he never recovered.

I miss me some Lee Evans

He needs to be able to explain what he is seeing/why he is saying what he is saying in casual language. If nothing else on the reply after the play is ran. For example when he called the fade that ended up being a slant. "QB's are looking for one on one coverage and space in that part of the RZ, so if you see the Safety start deep and approach the line it creates a lot of open space to run a fade route to the right corner, I know that's what I would have looked for but the slant was also a very good call" Fans can understand that type of explanation and gain insight into the game as a result. If he gets overly technical or just decides to call plays out with no explanation it will not be received well long term.

In watching his college type I was overwhelmed by how he could anchor. He was doubled on almost every play and would never give an inch. The guy is strong as an ox. He's probably already a top 5 run defender at DE. Obviously we would like some healthy sack number from our DE's. Time will tell how he develops his pass rushing repertoire.

I forget the poster who said this, Magic something (please reveal yourself for posting what was a very rational contrarian view which I enjoy). He said something like.... Watkins/Darby/Gilmore/Woods/TD Mike < White/Hyde/Poyer/Tolbert/Matthews/Zay/Gaines.... Most the board gave up when we lost the players to the left. Maybe we need to circle back on that one. If you look at my post that is meant to be a barometer for the past, then look at the names on the left, how many of those guys drove the numbers toward that barometer and why specifically in 2016? Watkins didn't play. Darby was awful his second season. Gilmore was above average but soft in the run and had a down year. Woods was average. TD Mike was running behind one of the best run blocking lines in the league. Hyde and Poyer are massive upgrades at Safety. Tolbert is a better compliment to McCoy. Pure bruiser and good at it running behind that same line Mike benefited from. Matthews > Woods, better size, catch radius, better production. White/Gaines, not your island corners, but for this defense, they have the perfect skill sets. Zay is athletic and will keep developing. Where most of us saw the departures as reason to throw in the towel, you could just as easily argue that we upgraded this team. Oh by the way, we added a massive amount of draft picks in the process. This team is going in the right direction. Beane isn't afraid to make the decisions he feels are right despite public backlash. This is not a lost year. We have outside playoff aspirations and we have a lot of reasons to feel good about the coming years. Very excited about next week. I think we will "upset" Carolina.

Offensively in 2015 we finished 9th in DVOA in 2016 we finished 10th. In points in 2015 we finished 12th and in 2016 we finished 10th. If you were provided this information without identifying the team and asked if this this phantom team was likely above/below average on offense the answer would have to be above average. Defensively in 2014 we ranked 2nd in DVOA , 2015 24th, and 2016 27th. 2014 in points 4th, 2015 15th, 2016 we ranked 16th. If you were provided this information without identifying the team and asked if this phantom team was likely above/below average on defense the answer would be? 2014, clearly above, that stat line is elite. 2015 and 2016 both show poor DVOA and just about dead middle of the pack in PPG. I would have to lean below average. Have we fallen that far? I really don't think we have. It's assumed that we have, but it just doesn't pass the logic test. In the stats above Sammy gave us something in the back half of 2015 and that was about it. Do you think it was Robert Woods who did it? Matthews=Woods. 2016 WR core or 2017? Keep in mind, no Sammy in 2016..... I would take 2017 all day. Shady is healthy and is the cornerstone. Is it reasonable to assume we will be top 15 in DVOA again? How isn't it? On defense we have no clue.This was an elite defense 3 years ago with very few parts of that team left. Rex destroyed any ability for us to even get a reasonable barometer but I will try anyway. 3 pieces on the DL remain from 2014 with the 4th being Shaq. The secondary, despite the loss of two starting corners could be better with White and Gaines in zone roles compared to Gilmore and Darby on islands. Our Safety play will be vastly superior. Rex really messed things up. Is it reasonable to assume we will be in the top 15 in DVOA for defense? Certainly possible. If we end up in the top 15 in both offense and defense we start to flirt with more likely than not to make the playoffs. As far as the fans right now, I think this is the opposite of 2015, instead of unrealistic optimism we have unrealistic doom.

Given our collective track history I would be concerned if people voted high for Beane.

Lets review in 3 years.

I consider it basically the same which you already know and will likely follow with pointing out the value of a 2019 4th rounder. Lets just stay on point. The guy called something out of thin air and got ripped apart for 17 pages. Give him some love.

Nice call Dragon, I didn't think your prediction was that outrageous, people just like some Reggie Rags round these parts.

I like the no half measure approach. It's the biggest punch in the gut, but also gets you the largest return. If you had to forecast scenarios, one being Sammy catching 80 passes, 1200 YDS, 8 TD's or one where Sammy produces below 1,000 yards or deals with injury problems, which would you go with? Would we end up keeping him in either scenario? If he blew up he would have left or got the franchise tag. If he didn't,we wouldn't have signed him. Nobody questions his talent but if the Bills did not think he was likely to be retained why wouldn't you go for max value in a year that will most likely be an outside playoff birth at best.

This place is so different compared to 10 years ago. Just seemed like the wall was a little more accepting then. OP just discussed an unrealistic camp cut. They happen. It doesn't make much sense but I did find the post interesting from the standpoint that we all know they happen and when they do it would seem Reggie has the profile in which you tend to see it happen. Not drafted by current coach, no NFL history, not drafted for this system, and coming off injury. What if he has an atrocious preseason and somebody else excels? Again unlikely, but I didn't think the OP should get toasted. I could see this scenario being more likely next season if he doesn't fit in this year, but the point of the OP was in making a unlikely prediction. Good post.

Our secondary could be more talented this year. Darby needs to get back to his rookie form, White is looking promising and needs to keep showing why he was our #1, Hyde brings a Hybrid ability we haven't had in some time The defensive line could be dominating. Dareus and Kyle need to stay healthy. Hughes is much more natural as a 4-3 DE. I think the same can be said about Shaq who is getting a lot of positive reports out of camp right now. WR will be much improved. We lose Woods, but most of last year we had Woods and street free agents. If Sammy can stay healthy? Maybe we sign Boldin? Also promising is Zay Jones, who like Shaq, is getting a lot of positive attention in camp. All I know is it would be damn hard to challenge our deficiencies at this position compared to 2016. If some things go our way we could be vastly improved. OL will be among one of the better units in the NFL, certainly in the run game Throw in Tayor, if he can improve. How deficient this team was of organization and detail the last two years. Even if it is year 1 of this system, it's not like this is a lost year. If some things go our way we could surprise some people.

Yup, regardless of what anybody thinks of his ability, in that landscape he would be pulling Top 3 recruiting classes instantly.

I don't have kids, if I did this would be a very hard decision. I agree with your statement, it taught me so many valuable lessons. It's really not a good time sport. I remember having to soak in ice baths in between two a days because my shin splints. All the times you have to push yourself past what you think you can. The team building. Football is very unique in character development for youth. I think it's worth the risk. Past high school, I don't know. College is pretty damn violent and most kids will never play pro ball.

My dad passed a few years ago, but like so many, I have very special memories on that day. I was 11, he was working in Virginia, we lived in Michigan. Old man was a huge Steelers fan so the whole week was trash talk since that's who we would face next. We spoke at halftime. He could hear how disappointed I was, "well meat, you guys had a good run". After the pick 6 I threw the remote in disgust and turned the TV off only to rampage into the living room and turn it back on. As the game progressed he kept calling. Nobody knew what the hell was happening. Then the whole time you have this sinking feeling. Would Houston score a TD on the last drive or kick a quick FG in OT? I mean all that emotion and we very well could have had it taken from us. It's the best memory I have as a Bills fan. Pretty much the complete opposite of MCM. I also remember that vividly. As amazing as the comeback was, MCM was just as incredibly awful. Some people talk wide right as the worst. I get what was on the line, but it was a missed FG. Those happen. MCM does not happen.

I suffer from lowered expectation syndrome. Every once in awhile logic and reason gets in the way of my condition. Now is one of those times.... The off-season is a funny thing, especially looking back to all those years we won the off-season. Not that long ago Rex was one of those years. Prior we had Bledsoe, Tom Donahue, Takeo Spikes/Lawyer Milloy to name a few.... All these exciting off seasons producing absolutely nothing. This off-season wasn't overly inspiring. None of it really matters, fan outlook does not produce wins. Outside of few franchises with exceptional QB play nobody knows how 2017 should go. Is it logical to start where the previous season ended? Sometimes it could be, but I don't see how that works in our situation. We had a defense that was playing a system for 2 years that the defense did not properly fit Ragland and Shaq are virtually unknown, production in 2017 could range from Pro Bowl to bust Sammy was not Sammy, or maybe he was Sammy, but what if Sammy was Sammy? Like last 8 games of 2015 Sammy? What if Tyrod keeps getting a little bit better? Not here to start a debate.... What if we get Pro Bowl production from any of our new additions in FA or the draft? What if McDermott turns out to be legit, or even, what if Rex was so bad McDermott looks legit as a result? What if Darius returns to form? Roll back to 2014 and this team and the defense looked playoff bound. It all just fell apart the last two years. In large part the pieces are still together. At the least they certainly could be together if a few things go our way. Since 1993, Bills offenses have only averaged more points than the 2015 and 2016 season 2 times. What if we get that production and we see a return to the defensive line being dominant? We see the defense return to a top 10 unit? It seems almost as conceivable for things to go that way than for things to be as bad as it was with Rex for a 3rd straight year.

The OP captured Overdorf's role accurately. Overdorf executes the wishes of the GM and ownership and advises on salary cap implications. It's not like he made the decision to give Clay or MD the contracts they got. He was advised to structure a deal with Clay that the Dolphins couldn't match, he did that. He was told to retain MD and he did that at MD's market value at the time. He was also told to create a deal that would allow us some flexibility with Tyrod and he did that as well. I thought the Tyrod deal was unique and creative comparative to what other teams have done in similar situations. Taylor situations can put teams in cap purgatory for years and he/ownership/etc avoided that. I really don't know if Overdorf is or isn't doing a good job. Nobody here does. Given his employer is the only one with any idea I'll have to side with them on this even though that's not very popular these days.

We don't need choir boys, but guys that dedicate themselves to the game, show some intelligence, and stay out of trouble off the field? Yes, we need those types. If I'm drafting a player I only want to have to answer one question, is he good enough? Not is he good enough and if so will he throw it away? For every Randy Moss you will find a dozen of Randy Gregory's.