Mikie2times

I would say he does if you don't include recognition, which I don't think you can because he's still so raw. I still don't see him ever approaching Youngs recognition level, but in terms of arm strength and athleticism I would rate JP higher then Young.

You still in Toledo?

Never mind, I saw your other post, I must have took your post out of context. Doing thirty things at once (and I do need to stop being defensive).

I always enjoy when somebody tries to disprove your entire point by criticizing one part of your argument. Even better is when they do it with providing nothing to the discussion. You can spit out statistics all day, it doesn't make my points any less valid because they're not based completely on statistics.

Since his stats look bad Elway wasn't good enough early on? Is that what you’re trying to get at AD? He led countless comebacks, and made plays. He also made some mistakes. That's what happens when you don't have to read defenses in college. These athletic QB's spend half the time outside the pocket in college, and it takes them longer to develop in the pros. Nobody’s saying he will become Elway. But to deny the recent progression, and historical proof that he's can still be a franchise QB, well it's just inaccurate.

What "facts" might those be? By all means find my a guy that compares more to JP, not just stats.

After watching our defensive line they say they look very excited

He nearly did it on the game winning pass to Roscoe

If your being serious Flutie was incapable of being a pocket passer.

I guarantee his detractors will completely reroute this thread to arguing against JP becoming Elway. Not the most difficult thing to do considering Elway is one of the best of all time. The point is here are two guys, nearly the same size, same talent, similar personalities, developing at the same rate. We should not be concerned in anyway with the progress on one John Paul Josman.

A recent post got me thinking about JP. How rare is it to have a guy with his athletic ability, who can also be a pocket passer. Few QB’s in NFL history come to mind. After these last two weeks one guy I started thinking about was John Elway. I wouldn’t categorize Elway as a pocket QB, but he could be a threat from the pocket like JP can. He was also about the same speed as JP coming out of Stanford. I did some research and compared Elway's first 25 starts with JP’s first 19 starts. I averaged it out so we could have comparable numbers to work with. They look nearly identical. Elway took a long time to develop, but I don't think Denver regrets sticking with him. JP-------------------Elway 27.26 ATT--------25.56 ATT 16.68 COM-------13.48 COM 57.5%--------------52.7% 176 Yards---------170 Yards .95 TD--------------1 TD .84 INT-------------1.2 INT

I'm not going to say he lacks in mental ability just yet. It takes awhile to read NFL defenses. He also had a bit of the Mike Vick syndrome at Tulane. He could fall back on his athletic skills, instead of being forced to read defenses, so that adds time. I recall a telling quote in which he looked back at his first game against Houston. He said he felt unbelievable that he made it as a NFL QB after the 1st quarter. Something to the effect of I can already do this, I belong here. He then went on to say how far off base those thoughts ended up being, and how difficult it's been. But now he’s finally starting to get comfortable. I think we can all see it recently so I’m encouraged about his progress moving forward. As for his skill level I completely agree. I mean how many QB's are as fast as JP, but also capable of being pocket passers. Throw in his size and arm strength and you nearly have a prototype QB. Few in the history of this game have had the natural talent Losman has at QB. Elway early in his career would probably be the most comparable guy I can think of. Coincidentally they share the same number. I hope it’s no coincidence JP's starting to have a penchant for comebacks. Elway also didn’t experience his best years until later in his career.

I see Vick being able to help Atlanta win down the road, I just don't think it's working in the current set up. For starters he needs to carry the ball against his chest instead of running around with it extended in one hand. I can't fathom how Mora hasn't made any progress in getting Vick to protect the ball. Next if I'm Atlanta I need to abandon all normal NFL thinking. The reason being I have a player who is unlike any other QB to have played this game. Out of the Shotgun, or booting from under center Vick can pick up huge chunks of yardage on the ground. He just struggles when he drops back in the pocket. Decades of athletic dominance let him get by without reading defenses, and he won't be able to learn now. I say go to the two headed QB system. Have Schwaub handle the pocket stuff, and obvious passing situations. Then you could have Vick run some sort of single wing variation with some boots on run/pass downs. You could even put them in the same backfield. How could the secondary commit to the run on a toss sweep to Vick? It sounds crazy, but you would get the best of both players, and it would put a ton of pressure on defensive coordinators to prepare for. Obviously I don't think this would ever happen, or that Vick is humble enough to go along with it. I just see it being the best winning formula for who Atlanta has.

Juice, you pay between 3%-10% for a winning bet, or more. Edit: Say I take Buffalo -3 at -110 odds. I bet 100$, I would win 90$. The -110 after the line is the juice.

If they respect us anymore they would get killed with one sided action. As it is I guarantee the Chargers will be one of the most heavily bet teams this week.

I was one of the first to say Willis isn't as good as he's made out to be. I said that at the start of the 2005 season. Looking back I reacted to what the perception of Willis was back then, both around here and in the media. IE Willis is one of the best RB's in football. I always disagreed grading him that high, so I took the opposite stance on the debate. Now the perception of Willis around here is that he's expendable, that he isn't a difference maker. Some have gone as far to say A-Train would be just as good. To me that logic is just as flawed rating Willis among the best in football. Please don't show me statistics of A-Train facing the Colts and Texans run defense and compare them to what Willis has faced. Not only is the competition difference vast but the sample is a fraction of the size. Willis may not be a top 5 RB in this league, but he is a difference maker. You saw it yesterday on two scores A-Train would not have made. You will continue seeing it whenever we have to turn to our back ups. In the context of the elite RB's Willis can't carry a game on his shoulders, few can. But he still makes us better off then half the league. Being such we should embrace him as we have other good/great Bills over the years. The unique passion of Bills fans is one of the biggest things we have going for us. Maybe if we try and support players like we used to we can make players want to stay here.

I'm only playing ATL tomorrow -2.5 (bought .5 point). I still really like Pittsburgh, but I'm going to lay off. I see the effort, and if they believe they can make the playoffs they can be dangerous. If they lose to Baltimore fade them the rest of the way.. The Oakland game would have only been a play at +14, it's seem to be holding at +13. I agree about MS distain for Oakland. It could be a blow out, but you always risk that in these type of matchups. AS for CHI-NE I don't like the extra .5 NE's giving, and Grossman is so unpredictable. I could see NE covering, but the time to play them is after 1 or 2 losses. Otherwise they seem to fall back to the NE is winning the Super Bowl type lines (possible fade scenario next week).

Interesting Fezmid. It helps little for my current situation, but I expect to be in apartments at least two more years. This is some good info.

About 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter I check the live odds on Matchbook.com. LSU was a -2.5 favorite getting +125 odds. I got to make up for the Detroit game, have to love live betting. I was very surprised to get that price; it looked obvious Arkansas didn't have the balance LSU did after the first. Average gain per play was in LSU's favor by over a yard and a half. Arkansas has an amazing running game but at some point you need to be able to throw, especially on 3rd down.

Looks like Rutgers coach is the lead guy. Hope you enjoyed chopping wood this season Ed.

I don't come to a final decision until Saturday night. This is what I'm looking at, and if the line shifts to the buy price then I'll bet it for sure. Atlanta -3 buy at -2.5 I really like the overall motivation for Atlanta in this match up. It's a must win game for them, + Mora senior called out Vick early in the week. The first game they played in New Orleans was one of the most difficult regular season environments I've ever witnessed. Atlanta won't be able to stop New Orleans passing game, but the Saints won't stop Atlanta's running game. It's safer to move the ball by land. New England -3 buy at -2.5 As Buff pointed out it sucks that New England’s favored. Anything less then three would be juicy. If the only reason I had for this was New England potentially losing three straight home games it would be enough. Past that I like BB's penchant for confusing QB's and Grossman’s penchant for getting confused. I also think NE can get the running game going. The only reservation I have in this is Brady's performance against the Colts cover 2 look. Oakland 13.5 buys at 14 When every sign points to one team winning go the other way. Oakland’s on an ATS roll getting DD points against teams that don't care. The Chargers are off two marathon wins, Oakland on the other hand is playing better and was flat out embarrassed by SD at Home on Monday Night football in week 1. You remember giving up 9 sacks, and being shut out. Merriman did most the damage and he won't be playing. Oakland plays good defense, and the offense will be improved with Brooks over Walter. Pittsburgh 3 buy at 3.5 The defending champs have one game left to get back in this season. They're 4 back of Baltimore with two games remaining against them. This is the definition of must win for them. They're getting healthier on defense, and like the way they move the ball so long as Ben R. doesn't turn it over. I expect Baltimore to crawl down the stretch just like they crawled into the bye. McNair just isn't built to go 16 anymore.

Like you said, variance. If you’re doing really well and expect that to become the norm you'll fry. Last month I wen't 65-20 which is the best month I've ever had. Knowing what I know, what you know, I would probably be a better bet to fade this month. Nobody is capable of achieveing those numbers with any regularity. I think way to many go wrong following such a hot streak. The inevitable losing streak will come, and if your not prepared for it mentally you might risk way more then you can afford to lose. As for your thoughts on home field advantage 3 would make up the average league wide home field advantage. Some teams like KC and Denver will consistently get 4 to 4.5. I'll vary the number depending on the variables of the game, and so will the books. HF is mostly a motivational thing, so you have to play it like in terms of the situation. If a team isn't motivated then the fans probably won't be either, and HF won't factor in heavily. You often see this with the Colts when they're a double digit favorite. You also have to look at team's coming off great ATS home records to get a .5 to 1 point increase the following year. Obviously the books don't like to get burned twice and the public is still willing to buy.

You know how it never looks like the Bills should win? You could say that for half the league. I'd rank them 1 threw 15 then have 16A, 16B, 16C etc.

I would need a book. Different rules apply to different sports. Different rules apply within those sports during different times of the year. If you have a specific question I will be happy to answer it the best I can. I don't know everything, and know certain areas more then others. I would also recommend BuffOrange thoughts on the NFL, he clearly knows what he's doing.