Mikie2times

Russ was never good enough to justify the Denver trade. In a balanced situation he most certainly regresses last year but nothing to extent we saw. Now his legacy of ever being a solid QB is in jeopardy and I expect he will have an above average season. As most have pointed out unless you saw those Broncos games, it was hard to comprehend just how bad Hackett was. Players don't typically take linear paths. It's more jagged unless this is the end but I think it's a bit soon to call it that. In his prime and what we likely see a bit this year he was mobile, outstanding deep ball, and very good accuracy. Not the best guy reading the field or getting the ball out but elite in the other areas. Tyrod was sort of a poor mans version. Wilson was much better than Tyrod stretching the field but similar skills.

He was the man in the day.

I understand the point you're trying to make here, but with this view, most analysis that exists would become irrelevant. So to me it's just sort of an odd point to make. I mean take any stat that exists and I can apply this lens to it. EX: Josh's TD's are up. Well, that's not Josh and his TD's per say, it could be better WR's, better blocking, better play calling.....Lets not really talk about Josh's TD's being up because we are just creating casual narratives. If you go back to the first page I had a fairly lengthy post on teams, namely our divisional rivals not blitzing Josh anymore or better stated, our offense. Specifically in the 2nd half of last year. Now is it because the line? Poor WR's? Coaching? Josh? It could obviously be any of those things or all of those things, but whatever it is seemed to work rather well and it stands to reason we will keep seeing it until we show we can handle it.

Thanks. I posted the data below in the offseason and I remembered how slanted the Jets played us from that. Which we have to expect again. I have been extremely critical of our inability to take underneath offense. Which triggers a ton of conversations as to why, all of which I don't care to rehash. Having said this what an opportunity to show a evolution in the offense. Some power run. Methodical. Move the chains. That is the style the Jets will give us. Will we take it?

In two games last year, the Jets allowed a combined 352 yards passing. They Blitzed Josh just 9 times in two games. Individually, each match up ranked in the top 4 least blitzed games Allen saw last year. Allen tried to throw into this look the first game. His air yards per attempt ranking 4th highest for the year in that match up. It wasn't a good result and played right into what the Jets wanted. In the 2nd game, Josh reined it in more averaging 8.2 air yards per attempt which ended up being a full 4 yards less than the first game. In both games the results of those completed passes were in the bottom 5 games as far as length of completion. First game going for 6.4 yards per completion and the second going for a season low 4.6 yards per completion. The Jets, as much as anybody, do not think Josh is willing to take underneath throws. They won't blitz, they will flood the zone, they will beg Josh to beat them downfield. They play the same style of defense the Steelers used against us in the 2021 opener and that teams started playing more in the 2nd half of last year as Josh saw the Blitz nearly stop completely. When Blitzed 6 times or less last year, Josh passed for 147, 172, 197, 205, 223, and 254. All 6 games happened week 9 or later. Teams do not think Allen is able to take what the defense gives him. They want him to drive the length of the field in boring fashion. On our side we really need to show the NFL early that we will feast underneath if you give it to us. IF we can do that it will open it up deep later on. A pretty game for Josh is a whole lot of check downs. Underneath throws. About 200 or so yards and a solid completion %. Keep the chains moving. Do not let the first game excitement get to you.

I don’t think this post will age well. Both will surprise people this year

I think some people feel Josh could be the only reason we have a chance and also the reason it doesn’t happen. Similar to how some people feel that way about McDermott or Beane. They feel barriers between why we can be excellent but not good enough and they look at these topics as reasons why. When they express as much, they usually get reminded why they should be more grateful or more thankful. Why they can’t be fans or why they’re nattering nabobs of negativism. In the end if this was about success and winning the 90’s would have been enough for most. It’s clearly not. It’s about a Super Bowl. The longer we remain excellent without accomplishing more, the more traction these topics get. Which seems fair, I think.

Not surprised. Nice job prime.

Kyle Orton dressed like the village people in a Josh Allen jersey. Where is Chief Wiggum

I mean, Beane is great at building above average competition at nearly every position. I think when people are upset at his drafting, it’s not that he can’t find contributors. It’s that we can’t find difference makers.

Don't undersell it

I knew it was around starting games….. Not alot of statistically valid methods exist and I’m not counting this as one of them. Plenty of reasons exist why a draft pick could start. The team can be poorly assembled, lacking talent in key areas. They could be more committed to starting draft picks. It’s pretty obvious ranking Beane 2nd doesn’t exactly pass the sniff test. At the same time ranking him near last as some would have you believe doesn’t jive either.

Taylor and Anarumo gives them elite coaching on both sides and yes, I think systematically they're built to be much more physical than us. I would stop at that point. As an organization, they can't and never will be able to keep up. Brown just doesn't have the money. Not horribly off what we saw with Ralph. As money gets tighter, perks go away, and top down control increases.

It's all about the gambling money. That is the big to do on this subject. When this occurs the event gets ruled a no contest. Doesn't matter what the score is. All money returns to the better and the house doesn't keep the juice. The NFL cares too much about gambling. It's more about that than anything else being discussed on here.

Heck, I barely know the Bills well enough to guess. Mahomes appears more like a perfectionist type than I once thought. If I really had to guess I would say Bieniemy used to be that person for them. But who knows.

I think we have tons of leaders but we don’t seem to have that alpha dog punch you in the mouth style leader or perfectionist who will rip you. Nowadays those guys are likely very rare anyway so it’s hard to say how much of a deficit that is or isn’t.

I would say valid point, my bad. But I was never "dying on the hill" over that play. I didn't recall the down and distance as you pointed out. I can post a practical season worth of examples of what I'm describing. So if anything you seem to want to reduce this more to a singular example a lot more than I do. But as I said, this is growing pointless. No example will change your mind. Does it even matter if it did? You think your opinion is more accurate/educated. I think mine is. It's an old fashion pissing match and I don't come here for that. If you want to circle back mid season sounds good.

I think my point is pretty clear. If Allen can in fact read defenses, he chooses to not take anything underneath. Everything, regardless of down, is waiting for something longer to open up. In the mean time, he gets in 3rd in long as a result, gets sacked as a result, throws picks as a result. Yes, he makes Josh like, nobody else can make plays as a result, but I would just rather convert a damn first down and create some level of rhythm. As one poster pointed out in a thread awhile back, it's like watching a 3 point shooting team in basketball. It's nice when they go down. But they don't always go down. Josh is feast or famine with everything. Last year, the reason was the line sucked, the WR's can't get open, Josh has a hurt arm, and the OC doesn't call anything short. Literally a hysterical cocktail of bs. At the very least, is it all possible in the litany of excuses that Josh in fact contributed? Not one person took the path of Occam's razor and said, hey, maybe the QB is passing up his quick reads. In fact, maybe he doesn't even look for them. Then maybe, just maybe, if he passes on his quick reads he will get sacked more. Maybe fumble more. Is that happening? Great Scott! It is in fact happening. Despite watching him pass these options up over and over and over, I'm a J-Ass for simply pointing it out. I'm done posting about this. He's a great player. It is not worth laboring over this conversation another day. I hope I'm wrong and if I am, please bump this thread. It's not like I get my rocks off watching my favorite team and favorite player not do well. I hope to hell I'm wrong on all of it, Josh has an MVP season, and dunks on my face.

He has the in route for 7 yards and is looking right at it. He comes off it, holds the ball until the last millisecond, then rips an incredible pass down the sidelines to Davis. If this play happens 10 times, he will get strip sacked on at least one. Sacked on several others. Throw incompletion on several others. Where if he just takes the in route he will complete it with no risk 9 out of 10 times. Perhaps 10 out of 10. This would be a great call out except the corner doesn't have anybody behind him. So if jumps the out as you think they designed, Allen has six. Prior to Diggs even making his break the Steelers DB already has his hips turned as he would be beat if he doesn't.

I think most if it has been a decline post 2021. I actually think his ability to read defenses has regressed with the departure of Daboll. Then really regressed last year as teams figured out a general way to limit his Joshness in the 2nd half of the season. When Josh is decisive, think play action, he is in rhythm. He knows exactly what he wants to do with the ball. We saw this a lot in the end of 21. Some of that links to confidence and some to system. I think both have taken a hit for Josh. His confidence is hit because he has no exit ability when he doesn't know what to do with the ball. Then further, he is with a new coordinator that isn't nurturing him as much as far as helping with his progressions and allowing him to be decisive. We will see. I do not think he is Cam by any stretch.

He can't read defenses as well as you and others think. That is what I believe. I feel he is slow to get the ball out as a result. Which contributes to a poor offensive line play and turnovers. It also contributes to some only Allen like plays we have seen. I feel Daboll understood this more about Josh than Dorsey. Daboll did more to simplify reads. To create more deliberate throws. By in large, no, I would never think a QB could deliver Allens statistical profile without being very good at reading defenses. But I have never seen a QB thrive when plays break down like Allen has. That was until last year. It was like teams were not going to let him get to the sideline. Ever. Then later in the year, they stopped rushing him. I think teams are making him be just a QB and I think Josh struggles when he doesn't have the escape route he used for the last several years in the form of broken plays. My opinion isn't changing until I see a reason for it to change. It will change when I see him take hot routes off the blitz. When I see him concentrate more rhythm and timing. When I don't see constant double clutching. A general reduction in time to throw would also be a pretty damn good indicator. Obviously I hope all these things happen. Allen is one of the best things to happen to all of us in our Bills fandom. Again, I can still be critical of him and feel that way too.

I have been here since 2000, I have an excellent reputation, I don't think I'm trolling. I also think Josh is responsible for most the reasons we are even having this conversation (the Bills being good). Is it ok to think Josh is responsible for most of our success, while also expressing the view I did or do you have to hate Josh and think he is responsible for nothing if you don't think he's the best at reading defenses? Just let me know what box I need to climb into to fit your view of how I should be a fan.

Brady having the ball out in rhythm all the time. Having the fastest release time. That didn't contribute to how good the line looked to you? I never came close to saying Josh Allen isn't an elite player. I said he isn't good at reading defenses. When you're one of the elite talents of all time you can still be elite without doing that all that well. You want me to dispute your memory of the play vs my memory of the play? If you have a link post it? I recall Allen clutching the ball too long, progressing in his reads, seeing Davis open on the left and making a throw nobody can make. He would be sacked doing exactly what he did in many situations. But all you see is the outcome in front of you. I posted a play where he clearly did what I described. It also worked. Does that mean it was the right way to process the play? Do you want to resolve this going one play at a time? Help me get off my soapbox please.

That's fine dude. It's funny. I started a thread about midway through last season. I brought up that Burrow was probably just as good as Josh and that the Bengals were a real threat. Only to be treated as I have been in this thread. I brought it up because I like balance in thought and nobody gave Burrow the time of day which seemed homerish to say the least. The further I diverge in thought from the masses, the more inclined I am to fight them. I care a lot more about truth than some rule about how I should act as a Bills fan. I love Josh, this team, and everything to do with Buffalo. But I'm not going to be a homer or fail to discuss what I'm seeing because it's not popular. If by your standard that makes me a bad contributor so be it. I guess only good contributors see things as you see them and they fall in line in feeling as everybody else feels. We have plenty of very smart people here. I'm not the only one who see's what I'm discussing. But fighting the 20 to 1 ratio of posts you get when you just try and say Josh isn't perfect is worthless to most.

I'm sorry, I was confused trying to understand how you can lose something that you're now saying never existed. So are you saying that "adjustments"? Can you elaborate on what those adjustments were? From what I could see, they involved not letting Josh break contain and improvise, not rushing him recklessly, and blitzing much less (which is pretty clear in the data). Basically, they're making him do what I'm saying he isn't the best at. Which is is one, two, three, throw. Lets also not pretend that RB even factored into this. Cook was parked underneath for a check down a disturbing amount of times last year. The only time Josh has engaged the check down from the RB position was the end of 2021 and look at what it did for him. I can pick any tape from last year. Very few of his throws are made at the top of his drop. It only happens in rhythm on play action or if his first or second read is locked in while he drops back. If he doesn't know 100% where he is going at the top of his drop he will start patting it and then it has to be a clear stair it down throw. If the rush disrupts his timing he will not look at the check down or trust shorter routes until after they have developed. Past seasons he would run or roll out in any of the above scenarios. That's how he essentially converted all these "I'm not sure" moments into big wins. He can't do that anymore and its taking the rhythm out of the offense by forcing 3rd and long which did not go well last year. 3rd and long last year: Allen was 27 of 64, 522 Yards Burrow was 54 of 83, 654 yards Mahomes was 40 of 63, 837 yards As far as completion % at least align it to when they played. It does matter. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm Josh is actually below the league average for his time. Which doesn't matter to me, you brought it up in poor context. Josh is one of the most talented QB's to ever play the game. He is still plenty capable at the position while having the issues I describe. If we want to have Super Bowl aspirations he either needs to eliminate what I'm describing which he largely did at the end of 2021 or we need more talent. This team is not good enough at blocking or tackling to win a Super Bowl without a QB who is elite at reading defenses... Brady was the best ever, Manning, and Brees were both pretty close. All three have less talent than Josh.