Mikie2times

Easier to look at Bills, a guy that stands out is James Hardy. I thought he was exactly what we needed at the time and he was out of the league in about 5 seconds. I know a lot of people liked him on here as well.

He is one of the steals of the draft. Had a break out year in 21, season ending injury this year after only a handful of games. Now he is way under the radar. I watched him a few times this year prior to his injury. He's not one of those guys that just has good combine numbers. He's fluid, instinctive, and can catch. Old Dominion's passing game was awful, he stood out. In fact I didn't even know who I was watching until you posted this. I went, was that the TE from Old Dominion? I remembered him from the start of the year. Out of a million games this year that is how much he stood out.

I agree with all of this and it's hard to know what the path forward will be. Knox dealt with a major tragedy right at the time the offense was learning and evolving in early August. Perhaps that played a role in his development in the system. Perhaps the offensive line needing help is the primary culprit. Maybe Dorsey just doesn't like showcasing the TE? (He did throw to Jeremy Shockey at Miami). In any event, like the OP, I see a ton of value in the TE's for this draft and feel it is one of the most value driven roles in the NFL, but to your point I think we need to show that we can get the ball to one of them before we have two of them.

It's all well intentioned. Miller grew up in the NBA player recruitment era. We are starting to see more of that in the NFL. Guys talking about getting together and building a super team. The Rams were the best example. I think Von really wants this. Perhaps it has some elements of attention seeking. Maybe he wants people to know he was part recruiting process. Again, I think it's well intentioned and I like that our players are trying to get other players interested. It's exciting to have a team which seems to have been the total opposite of that for 20+ years being somewhere players want to go to win.

Yup, Davis has a top 5 yards per catch AVG like 3 years running. Part of the reason why his catch % always looks awful.

I enjoy the world of psych profiles. DISC and MBTI are the two I know the best. I do believe they can be fairly accurate on some things. How comfortable people are with confrontation, how comfortable they’re with being assertive among them. I think it’s easy to assume because Josh plays the way he does that he has this quality to him. I don’t think he does at all. I actually think he is rather non confrontational. While Diggs on the other hand is very dominant with his personality. Doesn’t mean Josh can’t be a leader, but I don’t ever see him being like Peyton or Brady where you mess up and he destroys you. He’s playful, goofy even. Not his disposition to be that way.

Which is fine by me. Not directed at your take, but as a whole. Given the injuries last year and then player progression. Allen, Cook, Shakir, Brown, Groot, White, Poyer, Elam, Benford, Hyde, Von. All should be better. Perhaps even Oliver in a contract year. Then you start thinking, can Davis be any worse? Can Knox be any worse? unlikely. Heck, Knox could have a huge rebound year. Then coaching. You know McD will be better than Frazier and I have to think Dorsey is better with the year of experience. Some sneaky FA agent signings. We have alot of reasons to think we will be better than a team that won 13 games but very few obvious ones that get people talking about how we should be the SB favorite. I like it.

If you're betting on Tre being his old self (which I feel is possible) this position immediately upgrades by about as much as LB downgrades. I'm really hoping that is the case. In fact, to go further, we could have the best secondary we have ever fielded with the depth we gained at corner last year and if our safeties can remain healthy. A lot of what if's, but really only room to better IMO.

As far as Josh and Diggs goes, I'm not worried at all. They will be fine. As far as Diggs goes, some of it I wonder about. I mean, imagine if somebody you know just goes off. Is extremely unprofessional. Then everybody else is like, hey, give that guy a break, he's passionate about his work. One, that sort of dismisses the rest of people in that group as not being passionate, which isn't right. Two, it disregards the need to remain professional which is a standard we all have to live by. MAYBE that person gets a break once, maybe, but then it happens again? How many times is it justified to just say "it's ok, he's really passionate". You have the sideline incident with McD last year which Sean did a hell of a job, then the end of the year with Josh. It's just not a good look and if it keeps being justified with "he's passionate" respect will eventually be lost. It seems like the Bills are ok with it for now, if you were a betting man, do you think we will see his "passion" again? I would think so. Love guy, but as a leader he needs to channel this stuff better. Great player and I like him a lot. Hopefully he matures.

Ya, it's a tad confusing. I'm not looking at total player AV since draft. Somebody else on this site actually did that. I'm looking at any player selected by that GM during his tenure, then looking at the total players remaining in each of the GM's 4th year and 5th year (TD only made it until year 5 and Whaley really didn't). Then what is the total AV score of all drafted players in that 4th year and 5th year. So not what they did all the way up until the 4th and 5th year, but just that year. So for the 2017 draft, it was only catching the rookie years of White, Dawkins, and Milano. That's why I kept saying even in giving Whaley 2017, it really didn't impact much. Why did I just look at these years? TD had 5 drafts, Whaley had 4 (5 if you give him 2017) and Beane just completed his 5th. So it eliminated the player development argument. It captured draft contributions over a sustained time in a like way. It also offset some of the current conditions each inherited, showing what the teams looked like 4-5 years after they arrived. So a different look for sure.

This is a really good post. In the end it really hurt both people. TD and Ralph.

I thought he put in a lot of work and did a great job in positioning himself to get Josh. Selecting Josh, having him work out, has basically changed the way we view his entire body of work. Which was sort of the point of the thread. Now many on here have said, well duh. It should be that way. Which I do get, but once you nail the right QB it's not like the pressure to draft well goes down. If anything the draft becomes your only way to secure cap friendly elite players. We have to start landing more of our picks that's for sure.

Dude, you either A) didn't understand the first post or B) chose to ignore a lot of information. The graph provided includes Allen. The premise is to not only look at how it has gone with Allen but without and using hard data to do so. Data that is better than opinion but certainly not perfect. I have no history of posting negative things about Beane. I don't think he has been very good at the draft outside Allen, but this is the first I have said as much. I think TD arguably drafted better outside of the QB spot. I recognize you can't subtract the QB spot. Allen is one of the most important picks in our Franchises history. I also recognize Beane will have to do a lot better outside of that. That is all.

Huh? It's data. Interpret it as you wish. I don't have some long posting agenda on this topic.

It was one of the more puzzling picks in our Franchises history. Henry declined quickly, but he was playing reasonably well. Certainly not poor enough to welcome an injured RB on a team with a lot of holes.

It's reviewing the players at the exact same progression in time for each GM and Milano was not drafted by Beane. You don't have to give him to Whaley by any stretch and he factors very little in how this was done, but he 100% does not belong to Beane.

It was one pick, not a company and lifetime of work. One pick. Further, I'm not even downgrading Beane, it's the defensive Nancy types like you that can't even discuss what is obvious. Dude hasn't drafted well outside of Allen. Pretty factual. It's really hurt us that he hasn't. Also pretty factual. Allen being bigger than it all, also factual but not the point of this thread. That much is pretty obvious I would think. I also think it's a tad bit crazy to think Beane didn't have an element of luck in the drafting of Allen. Even if that was always his guy, hitting on any QB is not an exact science and every GM needs some luck in that process. If you don't agree with that, do you honestly think Beane would hit on every franchise QB he swung at? Hell even 50%? It's only looking at performance of all draft picks in 2004 and 2005. Nobody, including me said it was perfect and I even said the 2017 draft class was a bit of a nomad class, but for how the data is evaluated in this, it works pretty well. The 2017 draft picks didn't make up much scoring and including them allowed me to give Saint Doug one more year of evaluation which was much more rooted in the previous 4 years than 2017. I didn't remove Allen. In the graph you see the performance with Allen. Is the statement true that outside Allen Beane has not drafted better than Donahoe? I would say it's true. Determining if that question is relevant or not is up to who is asking the question. I think it is very relevant given we won't be drafting a franchise QB again, we need to start hitting on our draft choices, and Beane hasn't shown a high ability to do so. So if you don't think it's relevant that Beane has not done well in drafting players that will be his targets for his remaining time as GM of this team that's fine. It also has no bearing that Beans draft picks still have plenty of years left. This data captures the exact same duration of time for every player in it. It does not give any consideration to anything past the maximum of 5 years in the league and that would only be the case if the player was drafted in the first year of the sample.

You going to make the entire team sign it? It’s not like Damar asked them to stop playing.

I wanna puke over that one. Hell, I remember exactly where I was when Ben was drafted. 😕 I don’t disagree with this. I think the thought of a single draft pick basically ceiling the fate of an entire body of work is a little crazy to me, but it’s the way it is. It didn’t go TD’s way in this area and history will never be kind as a result. In broader terms I don’t think the ability of the two is very different. I think TD has arguably out drafted him, at the least it’s neutral, and he likely did better in FA, but Beane has won the two biggest areas, QB and Coach. Henry sure did decline though didn’t he? But ya. That will always be puzzling. Was really fun at first though.

Milano was in the 2017 draft with White, so no, I did not give Beane credit for that draft. I gave it to Whaley. It arguably should go to nobody, but it's a weird year. Dumb error, I corrected it outside the graph, thank you. I wouldn't go that far. McGee was outstanding, McGahee was a wasted pick, but a decent player. Lee Evans was also very good. Then you have the start of our high motor dynasty which could have been worse. I mean is Schobel not currently better than any of our DL picks?

I was curious in looking at ways to compare the last 3 relevant GM's we had as far as draft results. I used AV as others have in the past. Not by any stretch perfect but decent = https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm My initial thought prior to doing this was Beane, outside of Allen, has drafted about as well as Donahoe and that Whaley was awful. In large part that appears to be the case. Below is years 4 and 5 for each of these GM's. I wanted to look at those years as I wanted to see the impact of several years worth of shaping a roster. It is also the cut off we have on both Beane and Donahoe while just missing Whaley (although for this study I think 2017 qualifies as a 5th year). -For Beane this includes drafts from 2018-2022 / 2021-2022 -For Whaley this includes drafts from 2013-2017 (I assigned the 2017 class to Whaley for this exercise) / 2016-2017 -For Donahoe that includes drafts from 2001-2005 / 2004-2005 I looked at the last two years for each GM which are in bold above. I looked at how many picks remained on the team that they drafted. Then what the sum of the "AV" of those picks was, then what the AVG "AV" value of those picks was. These are the results: If you subtract Allen from Beane, he goes to a AV total of 97 and 86, with an average of 3.88 and 3.90. So again, very TD like, which some might think is an insult but it's not intended to be. More just perspective. Whaley is obviously atrocious. You also see the impacts in 2017 of McD taking over the roster and purging his picks. Top 5 players drafted as far as AV is concerned: Beane= Allen, Singletary, Rousseau, Oliver, Edmunds Whaley= Preston Brown, Robert Woods, Tre White, John Miller, Dion Dawkins 😨 Donahoe= Nate Clements, Terrance McGee, Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Aaron Schobel

I think with an agent he would have gone a similar route as Kyler Murray. I think Murray's team knew the more he played the worse it was going to look, that, and he was under risk of injury given how he played. So instead of letting the deal expire then having the Cardinals in a position where they saw another year with god knows what possibly happening, Murray's camp aggressively pursued a new contract. Which ended up being pretty smart given Murray only hurt his stock prior to suffering a season ending injury.

That's all she wrote. Impressive. I don't know about you guys, but in doing this I was pretty surprised on a few things: 1. How high Allen is (he has had some incredible games) 2. How much higher Mahomes is than everybody else 3. Where Brady, Manning fell relative to Montana 4. Just how awful Lamar is. Starting to make that contract request even more laughable. 5. Rogers hasn't exactly been known for playoff success, but in the scheme of things has had his moments

I don't get it either, but I double check pro football reference and that is what they have. It was Russ and Dak.