JGMcD2

I agree with you... it's a very good point. I'll have to think of ways to adjust... I have a feeling the longer things go those types of guys will no longer be overvalued. That doesn't mean I can't find a way to account for it now.

Guys that get drafted after RD3ish and contribute/play aren't really JAGs either. JAGs are the guys that don't play or play for a season and get replaced. This methodology actually weeds those guys out and rewards you for finding contributors late... which we know is extremely hard to do. I'm not saying it's not flawed in some way, shape or form... but I think we're in a decent amount of agreement on this.

Eddie Jackson is an All-Pro too…

Eddie Jackson, Darnell Mooney and David Montgomery are JAGs? It absolutely has flaws, if I had more time I’d definitely work on tweaking some things. I think it does a decent job of objectively measuring draft results or at least providing some objectivity around the “Beane sucks at drafting” narrative.

I haven’t looked at individual drafts/players yet… I just updated my spreadsheet with the latest AVs. I can look at the Bills in a bit. A quick glance at Chicago… Eddie Jackson and Tarik Cohen in the 4th round provided a lot of value for them in 2017. In 2018 Roquan Smith and Bilal Nichols in the 5th. In 2019 David Montgomery in the 3rd. In 2020 Darnell Mooney in the 5th. They’re getting some pretty good players late and they’ve done well to find some higher end value later. Most of their top picks have been poor, but they’ve done enough where they’re not astronomically below average for the round they’re drafted in. Lol today it was just a matter of updating some spreadsheets which took all of 30 minutes. Working from home leaves me with some time on my hands and it's a slower time of year for work.

Pro Football Reference updated their approximate value numbers today. This post is an update now that we have another year of information on these draft classes. I'm not going to go back through every detail of how I put all of this together - I'll link my original post detailing that if anyone is interested. League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive A quick blurb that can orient you here if you don't want to read the entire post: DrAV = AV accumulated for team that drafted the player CarAV is computed by summing 100 percent of the AV of his best season, 95 percent of the AV of his next-best season, 90 percent of the AV of his third-best season, and so on What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. Image on the left is updated for 2017 - 2021 and is sorted by TOT_NETDrAV Image on the right is updated for 2018 - 2021 (For those who will shout that Beane didn't draft White, Dawkins and Milano) and is also sorted by TOT_NETDrAV. Bills would be #1 in TOT_NETCarAV for both.

I saw this yesterday. Thought it was pretty cool. His 19 AV this season is actually higher than his 18 AV last season. I'll have to update my draft grades... it's tied to overall AV per class. Curious to see what it says about Beane's drafting after another seasons worth of results.

That looks about right to me. You can’t really argue the top 4 IMO. Personally I would put Tomlin in that group and say you can’t really argue the top 5. McDermott slots in comfortably anywhere in the 6-8 range.

Who were the 7 he had above McDermott?

Speaking as someone who had the yips… those probably weren’t the yips. He came out at the half and was punting with ease during warmups too. If he does have the yips, I feel bad for him. It’s the most helpless feeling in the world… I’d never wish it upon my worst enemy.

This gives me chills. It's surreal after growing up in misery, that we can SERIOUSLY make a statement like this about our team. LET'S ***** GO

Well that’s not the Bills actually doing it. You message made it seem like they had or were planning to do something like that. Complaining about ST only players.

Does anyone know what time the gates close? I’ll be showing up at or around game time… if I have any delays I’ll probably miss the 1stQ. Want to make sure I get in…

By the Bills or by fans on this message board?

Well we don’t have one punter to punt and one punter to hold? Not sure where that’s coming from. Our ST only guys are Tyler Matakevich, Matt Haack, Tyler Bass, Reid Ferguson and Taiwan Jones. That’s it. Our 4th string RB and 4th string LB. What’s the problem?

Bojórquez at 40 yards net average vs Haack at 38 yards net average is significantly better?

Have you actually sat down and dissected rosters and players that were just core special teamers? I have a post somewhere looking at the Patriots under Belichick and they had as many “ST only” players as we generally roster. I’m sure it’s not as extreme across the league as you’re perceiving it to be.

He’s also perfect on extra points this year.

Schoen is potentially moving on for a promotion and we really can't control that. The opportunity to run his own operation - it's every football executive's dream to have the power. I'm not saying I want to lose Schoen, but we can't control that. Beane has done a very good job identifying front office personnel and assembling a front office staff that have plenty of experience. Dan Morgan is now an AGM in Carolina. Brian Gaine was the GM in Houston. Gaine got caught up in the bull#### in Houston. He was more than capable of running an entire organization - why would I think he's incapable of being Beane's new right-hand man? Lake Dawson was the right-hand man in Tennesse for 5 years before there was some turnover Terrance Gray and Malik Boyd have a wealth of experience and Boyd has gotten GM interviews in the past. They've gone out and brought in some younger guys like Curtis Rukavina to learn underneath these guys. At the end of the day, it's a highly collaborative approach at OBD, one that ensures that guys understand how everything works.

This would suck... but at the same time I have full confidence in Beane to find a suitable replacement. Crazy thing is, we have guys in house that can take over for Schoen. I know he's been a big part of things behind the scenes. Guys like Malik Boyd, Lake Dawson, Terrance Gray and Brian Gaine are more than capable. We'd just be back filling one of their positions... probably even elevating Curtis Rukavina to replace who is promoted.

Rhule report came out before this weekend. Giants announced that decision with Judge today.

Panthers committed to retaining Rhule. Giants have committed to Judge. I can’t see Rivera getting a pink slip. Raiders can’t possibly move on from Bisaccia. I think that would be insane. The man steadied a rapidly sinking ship and got them into the playoffs. He deserves to get the full-time tag. I know there’s a good chance they might, but it would be a mistake.

Gase was miserable and not even in the same stratosphere as Flores. I think the narrative around Flores was a little weird. I never felt like the rosters he had were so devoid of talent like the media claimed. He had more talent on that 5-11 team than McDermott had his first year Buffalo made the playoffs… or the following year when they went 6-10. He’s had issues getting his team to show up for their biggest games, but at the same time the team played hard always. He botched handling Tua (should have had Hebert so it’s not his fault). I’d argue they haven’t drafted very well, it’s been ok, but not great. Ultimately he choked last year and his team underachieved this year. He should NOT have been fired because I don’t see any upgrades and I think he’s a solid HC… but he didn’t deserve to be 100% safe. I’m really struggling to dissect Flores TBH. A lot of conflicting information.

All the Brandon Staley worship needs to stop.

Damn it. It’s my Grandma’s 80th birthday dinner on Saturday. I told my Mom to schedule something any day BEFORE January 15th… she chose to schedule ON the 15th. I’m so pissed. Obviously going to the birthday dinner, so now we have to sell the tickets.